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Based on Q3 numbers, HLNT earnings were .0003 a share for the quarter if I remember correctly. Multiply that by 4 and you get .0012, so HLNT currently trades at around a PE of 5 and that's not factoring in any earnings growth whatsoever. Since I believe HLNT is poised to grow their business significantly in the coming quarters, the PE should and will be higher IMO. I can find several companies trading on the pinks who don't have any earnings to speak of yet their share price is higher, so its just a matter of time before HLNT re-appreciates to something closer to "fair value" (which we all know is a subjective term). Some might call this a simplistic way to gauge fair value but it works for me.
IMO based on the information available about HLNT the share price should be AT LEAST a penny now, and more once some more information hits the wires about current and future business developments. Some might argue that it should be more than a penny now and I wouldn't disagree, I just try to keep my expectations modest.
My best guess is that most of the selling pressure we're seeing the last few days is due to EOY tax selling by those who bought this fall above a penny and are underwater, and have decided to take the tax deduction. I believe HLNT will move higher in January ahead of the next earnings report. If you have Level II you'll see a lot more bids than asks for the current prices, but nobody is bidding it up yet because they are trying to take advantage of the last few morons willing to sell it so cheap.
Hope this helps.
I don't know how long you've been in HLNT, but it had a nice pop a few weeks ago and several tradeable pops in the last few months. Unfortunately the last one didn't hold, but that's part of the consolidation period that we're in (and almost over IMO). The next pop should be a return to higher levels, as the support line that keeps getting retested is climbing steeper from here.
Ummm, that would be support.
If Baum would just clarify whether he was buying or selling this fall, it could go a long way towards providing price stability and appreciation. It's no coincidence that this selloff started on Dec 14th, the same day that Baum filed that confusing form 4.
IMO this is just a consolidation period after the big move this fall. This kind of price action can take a few months to resolve itself and it looks to me like we're on the tail end of it.
Look at the breakout in HLNT in May of this year. It was followed by a few months of selling and consolidation, but once the profit takers and weak hands were out, the stock price moved on to a new high in the fall. It looks to me like the same type of price action is repeating itself. Essentially HLNT is forming the handle after the cup pattern was completed when it hit .02 By late January we could be looking at huge breakout assuming earnings and other developments suggest a higher share price is justified (which I believe it is).
I'm in the same boat. If I had some extra cash I'd definitely be buying more here as I believe HLNT is on the cusp of a bigger move north. I have no idea if .02 is going to be taken out anytime soon, but HLNT should at least reclaim the .01 level and hold it IMO. If I get a sense that HLNT is about to break out again I'll trim some of my dogs so I can buy HLNT but now I'm hoping I get a pop on another stock so I can buy more HLNT before it breaks out.
GL
True, but I think it was because Uranium was in play that LBSR rallied. I mean gold/silver have been in play for a while and LBSR didn't move on that.
That's because Uranium stocks in general were on the move so the perceived value of LBSR went up. I'm not sure what the news was, but clearly there was something, just not specific to LBSR.
My first post was in response to someone who thought the PPS was lower than it should be because of lack of communication from the CEO. My point was and is that it will take some development that changes the perception of the value of LBSR, and a CEO talking unless there is something to say won't do it.
The pop last week came when there was no news. I'm confident HLNT can rally again without it. Their earnings coupled with their growth potential justifies a higher share price. I can find several pinkies trading at similar levels who don't have any earnings at all.
I suppose ones ability to trade it depends on several factors and at times LBSR does seem untradeable, while others (such as the last few weeks) have been great.
And someone pulled exactly the same amount of confidence out of it. Until trades start going through at the ask again, I wouldn't get too excited. However, I do believe the PPS will start moving higher again soon though, but I'd like to see some evidence of that.
The price action the last few days has been strange. Level II shows an overwhelming buy interest and few sellers, yet the bid is getting hit more often than not. Eventually the moron quotient in HLNT will dissipate and the pps will start moving higher as the eager buyers figure out the smart shareholders who are left aren't going to let this go so cheap.
Thanks for the info, I'll review when I get a chance.
It'd be great to see the PPS go up, just to know that it hasn't lost the ability to do so. That said, I have patience. At some point it'll go up, and possibly soon. Technicals do look set up for a pop soon, and IMO this should be trading at least in the teens just based on their 2010 revenue and higher potential for 2011 based on $90 oil.
And someone sold them as well.
Fair enough. "Earnings" was a poor choice of words. Obviously proven reserves and an eager buyer would accomplish the same thing (actually more) quicker.
That's exactly my point. The value of LBSR is unknown, and based on perceptions of future earnings potential. Interesting price action though, and definitely tradeable.
It takes earnings and revenue, neither of which LBSR is generating yet. That's why the share price is so erratic, it's hard to know how to value a company based on potential alone. Until some fundamentally game changing news gets delivered, this is probably going to be a better trading stock than a buy and hold in the near term. That said, it's always possible that kind of news is just a day away so as much as I'm willing to trade some shares of LBSR for quick profits, I always have a core position that I won't trade so I won't sweat it if news comes out and I'm not fully loaded.
SNEY is definitely in a downtrend, but probably closer to a bottom than a top. IMO, the problem stems from the Form 4 filed on Dec 14th where it appears Baum was selling at prices much cheaper than the pps now. That may be a mistake because the form was filled out inaccurately, but until that gets cleared up there will probably continue to be some selling pressure. All IMHO, but I bailed in the .012s and am waiting for a good reentry point. So far the pps hasn't given me any reason to want to pull the trigger and start buying again.
Definitely should get a pop sometime in Jan IMO, but possibly could start another leg up before EOY. The price action lately reminds me of July/Aug, right before the huge run higher. Again, all IMHO but that's how I'm looking at it. Still sitting on my shares with my .0072 average, not willing to sell anytime soon. Soon enough the morons selling in the .006s will look back and wonder why they let it go so cheap.
Yeah I hear you. Just frustrating is all. Technicals look pretty good for a move north, and it's frustrating to see sellers lower the ask when almost every trade is at the ask.
FWIW, if I'm reading the chart correctly once GRNO breaks above .10 it should head right into the mid to high teens easy.
GRNO looks good here, starting to form a nice bottom with a slight curl upwards. The only problem is that there are still morons who lower the ask. I'd like to slap the person who just lowered it to .095, if I had extra cash though I'd be buying it. It's still infuriating though. I guess it takes a while for the mentality to change from seeing every mini-rally as a selling op to realising this is moving slowly higher and waiting it out.
Fair enough, but since Mr. Baum is a director of SNEY, it seems like we're splitting hairs. I don't expect SNEY to do anything other than let him know investors are inquiring about his filing, and ask him to update it.
Ditto. I don't understand why they haven't taken care of that already, should be an easy fix. IMO the selloff had more to do with that then the caveat emptor on pinksheets.
Interesting, thanks for pointing that out. Even though I generally don't rely on PSAR, it's always good to have another indicator in our corner. What's important is that the last two bounces in November didn't trigger that PSAR switch.
ADX is also starting to look better, although is hasn't crossed over yet. MACD just barely starting to look bullish.
I'm confident as well. It's always nice to see a bounce exactly where you expect it. There is still some work to do to improve the technicals, but that's coming. The biggest payday comes for those who get in before the technicals are bullish.
GL & Go HLNT!!
Excellent post. I'm new to this stock, having made a small purchase of shares today based on pure speculation and a sense that the bottom is in. I'm not expecting a return to the heady days of summer in terms of share price but IMO the shares are worth more than they traded for today. Growth potential seems to be there but your analysis that the speculation period is over is spot on. Now it is about deliving tangible results.
But that being said, based on the recent press release, revenues going up and expenses down is always a good thing. CCP is in an interesting industry and will probably continue to grow at least modestly. If GRNO can earn a few cents a share in 2011 I'd consider that a positive development worth a modestly higher share price.
GL to all.
I assume that Yahoo just takes the form info "as is" without looking at the inconsisitencies. The form definitely got filled out incorrectly, and I'd be more inclined to believe an insider was buying when the stock was beaten down rather than selling, but what baffles me is why SNEY did not address this in the PR or make sure a new form 4 got filed ASAP.
IMO they dropped the ball on this, but that being said, this weakness in the share price is a buying opportunity so I'm adding on the dips. Once the chart stabilizes I'm buying all I can.
As long as the chart starts sloping up instead of down I'll be happy. I fully believe the bottom is now and I have a bunch of shares I accumulated down here. This has definitely been a buying op as far as I'm concerned but I'm waiting for trend reversal confirmation before spending my last wad of cash. I have several other pieces of ripe fruit I'll cash in so I can buy more of this peach.
Either that or they were buys as listed, and he filled out the share counts incorrectly. I already found one error in the math on that colum.
I have an e-mail into the company, asking them to clarify this ASAP by having a new form 4 filed.
NB: Even if they are sells, the total dollar amount is only in the tens of thousands of dollars. There could be several reasons why he'd be forced to sell his shares because he needed the cash even though he knew it was for far less than they are really worth.
Me neither. I thought the selloff yesterday was a one off, figured there might be some residual weakness today but didn't expect a lower low. Still, a good rebound off the bottom on strong buying volume. Not sure how to read this yet, or what caused the panic selling.
U.S. Called Vulnerable to Rare Earth Shortages
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Called-Vulnerable-to-Rare-nytimes-1596846706.html;_ylt=AvZYjwzFFVBQmuVYG1_HedO7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1ajNpbHBsBHBvcwM2BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawN1c2NhbGxlZHZ1bG4-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Bullish for SNEY IMO. I noticed REE and MCP are up in the premarket. Makes me think the buyer of that large block of SNEY AH last night knew something.
NB: sorry for the sloppy link, I couldn't figure out the URL tag and don't have time to figure it out right now.
Nice. I have confidence in the company & their technology, and I also have confidence in the the technicals, which even though they look terrible right now I think also point to a potential bottom here. Of course I have kept some cash free in case I'm wrong and it goes lower. I think we'll know in a few days if this is a bottom or just a resting point before moving lower.
FWIW, it seems like someone is happy gobbling up shares at .0062 today. I'm willing to bet they see the same thing I do. :)
GL
That's good to know. I missed the original run but a friend pointed this out to me so I kept it on my radar. I picked up a small starter position at .012 but noticed the trend breakdown so I stopped accumulating. Now I'm averaged in at .0072
Good to see other bottom spotters are starting to come back, makes me feel more confident about my estimate that HLNT is scraping bottom.
Thanks for the encouragement. I agree I'm early enough to this rally. Good things are just beginning. I was hunting all weekend for the next breakout stock, and LBSR is by far the best that I found. I'm sure I'm not the only one based on the volume and price action today.
GL to all. Enjoy the ride.
The force is strong with this one
I just bought this morning. Classic breakout chart pattern. Congrats to those of you where in at the .04's.
Exactly. That's been the problem for a while.
Only a few people are willing or able to bid this up, everybody else is trying to get cheaper shares. A classic deflationary cycle which I hope will break soon. FWIW, I think we're close to or at a bottom here. I'm not expecting a huge surge in the PPS right away, just that we won't see lower lows soon.
I'm tapped out of free cash right now, or I'd try and do my part to buy at the ask (if i can take profits on something in the next day or two I plan on buying more), but it is sad that in the last 45 min only 25,600 shares have been bought at .0065. Everybody in here must be broke or waiting for cheaper shares.
The weekly chart is what got me hooked on SNEY. It's a thing of beauty.
Eh, looks like I jumped too soon. Not a great close IMO, but still keeping the intrday low above .01 so that's a positive
I told you I wouldn't have to chase it. I did buy the dip though, got my order filled at .0015
BTW, nothing "only goes up"