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Gld and I among a few saw this comming!
I've believed in this market downturn for along time. Probably too long, but here we are.
One thing that's very different this time on the VIX run up compared to last October when it ran into the 26's and TVIX over $5 briefly is that was fueled mostly on the Ebola and Russia fear. This time the VIX has never ran up like it did last week and it ran up on fundamentals.
I'm not saying that the market can't totally reverse and go back up next week, but I don't think it's likely. Most likely much more market blood to come.
I think most of the people that are interested in TVIX are flippers and got caught without a position. just doesn't seem like very many were along for the ride Thursday and Friday.
I wouldn't say that. The future hasn't been written yet.
Hey Gold.. I'm anxious to here what you have to chime in on after today's action, and I'm sure I'm not alone.
Learner.
Such a minimal amount of volume in after market trading I don't put much weight in it. Now at the open I do pay much more attention to pre market action. If the market keeps declining from here we're in uncharted territory. VIX keeps going up and we will start going up exponentially faster. Every other time the market bounces right back. This time does seem different. No this time is different.
What a day today. VIX 28.22 at the close. Up 47% today alone. WOW! TVIX up $2.32 today alone. 33%
Good luck to all. Learner.
I've got some TVIX.
Global markets are following suit to the US market today. We're not going to rebound tomorrow. We will see a 3 handle on oil. S and P below 2000.
Or I might be wrong.
Learner.
Thanks Steel. Same to you and all! EOM
What a day! This very well could just be the beginning. S and P dropped bellow 2050, a major technical. Every other time we've hit it the market bounces right back up to near or new record highs. This time it hit it and kept going. Another day tomorrow like today and we could bounce more than a couple of bucks in one session. Been along time waiting for a correction. Hope this is it. VIX jumped %25 today. Huge! Once it's in the 20's this ticker will start moving much faster.
Good luck, Learner.
You know I've got my tickets. Many signals pointing to correction time. I'm still a strong believer that if oil tanks into the 30's for a period of time it will crush many. Once we see the S and P drop below 2050 and keep declining VIX will go through the roof and TVIX will follow. I don't even want to think about what's Russia and China's next move. We'll see. Glad to see you back Gldtimer, but I only have 13 followers so what do I know. LOL!
Good luck to all no matter how you play this.
Learner.
Good luck with that Gldtimer. If your vxx goes orbital then my tvix will go lunar.
If the S/P goes below 2050 and continues to fall this will be the place to be.
VIX futures at 14.90 right now. Up from 13.74 at the close Friday. Should be a good opener here tomorrow.
http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx
I don't really care about gold, but the VIX (fear gauge) is the hidden pay dirt gauge for TVIX.
It seems so. Hopefully Gldtimer will chime in and verify that the false spring has turned to winter. We'll see. I just don't see the market stainability at these levels with the economic growth in the US obviously slowing and world growth nonexistent.
$6.50 print!
That would be nice, but more important than that is we need the market to keep trending down and the vix to keep trending up. We see that next week and we should be back into the teens.
The VIX jumping is encouraging for TVIX.
Picked up 1000 at $6.05
I think this is the one your looking for.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107117842
gldtimer
Sunday, 10/12/14 08:02:45 AM
Re: None
Post # of 12447
Contango => Backwardation...
Go to VIX central
http://www.vixcentral.com/
Notice the majority of positive or contango numbers, although a few negatives are starting to pop up in the early couple of months. Also note the upward sloping tail.
Then hit historical prices and you are sent back in time to 10/16/08 the market meltdown being in full swing, a complete backwardation market environment with all negative backwardation numbers and a downward sloping tail. Backwardation, if it lasts long enough will take TVIX back up to its IPO price and beyond!
What kind of TVIX bagger are you talking about Gldtimer?
A 10,000x bagger, if it all plays out in the direction my models are pointing.
The tail is significant in that it represents optimism (up) or pessimism (down) for future equity prices. Like a wave the body of the curve starts down first...this is only a correction, but then will transmits itself to later months (tail) as we head towards the Greater Depression.
Contango causes the price of TVIX to decay, but backwardation will cause the price of TVIX to explode.
Learner, if you would be so good to highlight this post taking down the 'cat' post I'd appreciate it.
I've got a busy schedule for next week and won't post until next weekend. I'll turn the board over to the day trading boys to hoot and holler like they do on Zircon-212...paraphrased by yours truly from the KV's classic Slaughter-House Five.
-------------------
The moral tale is about Earthlings who were kidnapped by extra-terrestrials. They were put on display in a zoo on a planet called Zircon-212. Trouble was the humans weren't much fun for the Zirconians to look at since they would only sulk and sit in a corner unhappy being held captive.
To solve the problem the Zirconians set up a big board supposedly showing stock market quotations, commodity prices, and TVIX-lol along one wall of their habitat, a news ticker, and a telephone that was supposedly connected to a brokerage on Earth. The creatures on Zircon-212 told their captives that they had invested a million dollars for them back on Earth, and that it was up to the captives to manage it so that they would be fabulously wealthy when they were returned to Earth.
The telephone and the big board and the ticker were all fakes, of course. They were simply stimulants to make the Earthlings perform vividly for the crowds at the zoo-to make them jump up and down and cheer, or gloat, or sulk, or tear their hair, to be scared shitless or to feel as contented as babies in their mothers' arms.
The Earthlings did very well on paper. That was part of the rigging, of course. And religion got mixed up in it, too. The news ticker reminded them that the President of the United States had declared National Prayer Week, and that everybody should pray. The Earthlings had had a bad week on the market before that. They had lost a small fortune in olive oil futures. So they gave praying a whirl. It worked. Olive oil went up.
1-for-10 reverse split June 23, 2015
Surprised it took this long.
Happy retirement Gldtimer!
I'm always here. Hope you guys are right.
Learner.
A market correction is what is needed here.
I think your right Steel.
Good read Gldtimer.
Maybe the cool aid bowl will finally run out. This quote will be devastating if it comes to fruition.
Because we don't have net savings, the Fed will have to resume printing bank reserves for Too Big to Exist (TBTE) banks to resume buying federal bond issuances ("monetization") at some point later this year.
I'm still here steel.
OK I'm not so excited about TVIX now. Rats...
The fact that you're getting verbal about TVIX again speaks volumes. lol
I can't understand how oil hasn't crippled the market yet. Never been more pro TVIX than now. Just need Janit to give it a little push tomorrow and were off.
You're not alone. I hope so to.
We may see oil driving the markets again very soon.
"Get ready for a much bigger oil shock"
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/get-ready-for-a-much-bigger-oil-shock/ar-AA9AaVm
It was a nice move today with the VIX hardly moving. Conditions are prime for a run here. Another day like Tuesday tomorrow and it will really start getting fun here.
Learner.
Hi Clay. Thought we might of seen a chart on TVIX today. Did you give up on us over there? lol
Learner.
Relax a little hunter. The Vix hasn't ran up as much yet. Once we get the Vix in the 20 range tvix will start moving much more like what you're use to seeing.
This market is just unbelievable. I wouldn't be surprised to see the markets breaking new highs by the weekend judging from past performance. lol I don't think that's going to happen and we are way over due in my opinion for a huge correction, but none the less the market keep making new highs on helium. Crazy.
String a few more good down days in a row and we will start riding the elevator up instead of taking the stairs.
Learner.
B4, You've been here long enough to know it takes a few days strung together in order for TVIX to run. Record highs for the markets and we didn't drop much below the December lows. What 3 cents and the s and p was up over 100 points compared to then. Bulls have been running the markets with no reprieve. When this breath changes you and me will be happy holding here.
Good post VC. I agree.