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MBP - thanks for the JJC
Looks like a nice copper short to trade around a core. Running up hard in February? Odd spike in the face of a stronger dollar and a slowing China.
Good site for commodities newbies
http://www.commodityonline.com/
If you don't mind dry reading.
Anyone know a good copper short?
Old news the market is now totally ignoring
China to Start Using Copper Stockpiles, Chile’s Cochilco Says
January 13, 2010, 05:45 PM EST
By Matt Craze
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China probably will lower its copper purchases by 800,000 metric tons to 1 million metric tons this year as it begins to consume inventories stockpiled last year, according to Chile’s state copper commission, known as Cochilco.
China accumulated inventories in 2009, buying 1.94 million tons, Ana Isabel Zuniga, Cochilco’s director of research, told reporters in Santiago today.
Copper inventories will “slightly” increase this year while shortages will return in 2011, Zuniga said.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-13/china-to-start-using-copper-stockpiles-chile-s-cochilco-says.html
FCX? not a meatals guy and I think they are in a lot more than just copper. Would like a more pure play in a company with a heavy debt load.
CR - a stock that may be saying something about a recover
Those green jobs.
FSYS - just ramped up forcast for their coming quarter about 25%. It's selling now for P/E below 10 going forward. Been watching the stock as it has been falling and has a 35% short interest. It fell more on good news?
The stock fell $1.50 to $28.50 on the news?
Being a green job, of course it depends on subsidies. Speculation later came out that subsidies may be on the chopping block.
Greece may be exposing the limits of subsides and deficit spending the world over. Was that behind Bernanke's actions, an attempt to make the dollar look stable. In return, debt holders would continue to buy the tresuties at low rates in anther big offering next week.
RWC - sold one of my few stimulus plays today in my IRA. My "buy & hold account" is heavy cash. I had hopes of profiting from the coming jobs "boom" statistics I expect with the Census hires. Cut my biotechs in half also. Maybe it's time to cash in the IRA and pay the taxes. You can do a ROTH this year.
On that doom & gloom front
The stimulus dollars saved saved millions of municipal, state and federal jobs. The next big job event is a million census workers will be added to the job market.
Millions of actual taxpayers have lots their job and have a heavier burden than ever to support, fewer worker to pay the public burden.
What would real economic numbers look like without the save the public sector jobs. Those jobs would have dissapeared and millions more that depend on those public employees spending taxpayers funded jobs. Actually, taxpayers are not supporting those jobs. It's all done with deficit spending.
Hard to trade a market I have so little faith in.
Newly - I think you have a good hunch
100% sur Bernanke is't signalling easy credit ahead. The liquidity has to start drying up and he thinks the markets are are now healthy enough to survive the downturn that must follow. I'm also 100% sure the Fed can't actually sell inventory into the real estate market without a few widespread disasters. Obama was in Nevada today explaining how the Federal government plans to support the local real estate market going forward.
So much double talke needed to keep some serious implosions happening in the next few months, my guess.
The last hour of trading is about to tell us what they really think.
The Greeks are becoming more Greek daily
After a year of austerity programs the trend should only continue. On the other end the German public is not happy about the first bailout. What will the German's public mood be should a few more bailouts be asked for.
A weakening Euro is going to be bullish the dollar and that hasn't been good for equities.
Market negatives?
Greece is far from over
Greek MPs lash out at Germany over debt crisis
ATHENS, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Greek opposition lawmakers said on Thursday that Germans should pay reparations for their World War Two occupation of Greece before criticising the country over its yawning fiscal deficits.
Bonds
"How does Germany have the cheek to denounce us over our finances when it has still not paid compensation for Greece's war victims?" Margaritis Tzimas, of the main opposition New Democracy party, told parliament.
"There are still Greeks weeping for their lost brothers," the conservative lawmaker said during a debate on a bill to clean up the country's discredited statistical service.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's government has so far deflected appeals to promise aid to heavily indebted Greece, despite fears that failure to help Athens could threaten the euro.
Merkel's stance is backed by opinion polls showing that a vast majority of Germans oppose a bailout, and Germany's biggest selling daily Bild has lambasted Greece as a nation of lazy cheats who should be "thrown out of the euro on their ear".
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE61H1IZ20100218
Resolving debt issues is likely going to provide some bigger headlines going forward.
Foreigners cut Treasury stakes
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A record drop in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bills in December sent a reminder that the government might have to pay higher interest rates on its debt to continue to attract investors.
China reduced its stake and lost the position it's held for more than a year as the largest foreign holder of Treasury debt. Japan retook the top spot as it boosted its Treasury holdings.
The Treasury Department said foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bills fell by a record $53 billion in December. That topped the previous record drop of $44.5 billion in April 2009.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreigners-cut-Treasury-apf-1402391707.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
It's going to be harder for the Federal printing press to keep those millions of state workers employed with "stimulus dollars". Up next we have the census worker economy of 2010.
Frontline: The Warning
Summer, Rubin and Greenspan
"I didn't know Brooksley Born," says former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, a member of President Clinton's powerful Working Group on Financial Markets. "I was told that she was irascible, difficult, stubborn, unreasonable." Levitt explains how the other principals of the Working Group -- former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin -- convinced him that Born's attempt to regulate the risky derivatives market could lead to financial turmoil, a conclusion he now believes was "clearly a mistake."
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/view/?utm_campaign=viewpage&utm_medium=grid&utm_source=grid
This one really makes you want to puke. The same boyz are in full control today. Born got laughed out of town just as Volcker did. Too big to fail will be the next and final chapter.
Greek crisis deepens as S&P downgrades sovereign debt
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 9:40PM GMT 14 Jan 2009
"The ongoing global financial and economic crisis has, in our opinion, exacerbated an underlying loss of competitiveness in the Greek economy," said the credit-rating agency. The country was placed on negative watch just days ago.
The moves comes days after a €2.5bn (£2.2bn) debt sale by Greece that was entirely issued at short-term rates, much of it in three-month notes. Such an action is highly unusual for wealthy countries tapping the sovereign bond markets. It suggests that Athens fears that investors may be unwilling to purchase long-term bonds in the current climate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4242070/Greek-crisis-deepens-as-SandP-downgrades-sovereign-debt.html
I thought we were playing dominoes. Looks more like all fall down.
Most Germans want Greece thrown out of euro
The scale of public resistance throughout Europe to a potential Greek bail-out has become clear as it emerged that the majority of Germans think the Mediterranean nation should be thrown out of the euro if its problems deepen.
...A poll for popular newspaper Bild am Sonntag found that 53pc of Germans wanted Greece to be expelled from the euro if necessary in the coming months. Two-thirds were adamantly against German money being put towards a bail-out of the troubled country, the paper also found.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7238035/Most-Germans-want-Greece-thrown-out-of-euro.html
Germany growls as Greece balks at immolation
Holland's Tweede Kamer has passed a motion backed by all parties prohibiting the use of Dutch taxpayer money to bail out Greece, either through bilateral aid or EU bodies. "Not one cent for Greece," was the headline in Trouw. The right-wing PVV proposed "chucking Greece out of EU altogether".
Germany's Bundestag has drafted an opinion deeming aid to Greece illegal. State bodies may not purchase the debt of another state, in whatever guise.
...The Frankfurter Allgemeine summed up German feelings when it asked why taxpayers should bail out a country that thinks it an outrage to raise the retirement age to 63. "Should Germans have to work in the future until 69 instead of 67 so that Greeks can enjoy early retirement?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7236019/Germany-growls-as-Greece-balks-at-immolation.html
As the US marhes toward retirement unsolvency I expect the US public to balk at paying the generous Federal Pension Plan. Same with bailing out a generous state like California. Could become a Novermber ballot issue?
Unraveling the coverup of debt problems
Time running out for Dubai to pull itself out of danger, says Lord Mandelson
Time is running out for Dubai to restructure its debt and pull itself out of economic danger, Lord Mandelson has warned.
"Dubai has to be conscious of the fact that how it resolves its current problems will mean a great deal for the Dubai brand, its reputation and how it secures investment from overseas in the future."
The warning came as the Dubai Financial Market suffered its biggest fall in three weeks following reports that Dubai World, which has suspended interest payments on $22bn (£14bn) of debt until May, will offer creditors only 60 cents in the dollar after seven years. The cost of insuring against a Dubai default rose on Friday to the highest level since November, as investors once again turned their attention to the state's problems.
VVUS - what is that big short position about?
Qnexa gives me one worry, Phentermine is one of two ingredients and is a known QT/QTc prolongation
((sudden cardiac death))
The electrocardiographic (ECG) QT interval represents the time from initiation of ventricular depolarization to completion of ventricular repolarization. This interval varies with heart rate, autonomic tone, age, sex, and time of day.[1] Corrected QT (QTc) is the QT interval corrected in one of several ways for heart rate. Prolongation of the QT/QTc interval has been associated with development of a cardiac arrhythmia known as torsades des pointes (TdP). Torsades des pointes means "twisting of the points" and refers to observed waveform amplitude twisting of the ECG around an isoelectric point of QRS complexes. This arrhythmia can revert spontaneously into a sinus rhythm or degenerate into ventricular fibrillation. The latter usually leads to sudden cardiac death.[2] The TdP risk increases with extent of QT prolongation although this relationship is difficult to quantify at mild to moderate levels of QT prolongation. Because of TdP's potential sudden lethality, QT prolongation has become a major focus for drug safety.
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/7037...
Phentermine is on the market and has a grandfathered OK from FDA.
"most common cause of the withdrawal or restriction of the use of drugs that have already been marketed has been the prolongation of the QT interval associated with polymorphic ventricular tachycardia, or torsade de pointes (Figure 1), which can be fatal."
What Vivus has done:
Qnexa OB-302 Exclusion Criteria:
•Stroke/MI/unstable cardiovascular disease within 6 months
=============================================
Something I have focused on. Haven't seen where analyst are questioning this as a risk for approval.
VVUS is a trader for me. Don't plan to be in for the binary event. It does have plenty of cash and thus support.
Management drew my ire recently. Recently got an erectile drug approved and had a CC where a part of the Vivus panel continued to insist Viagra wouldn't lose it's patent until 2015. Not true, its 2012. If I can't trust management I really don't like a stock.
MBP - ISIS is a long term hold
Long time follower of antisense. Poor results in first generation drugs 10 years ago. Generation 2 is now being partnered with almost all the big Pharmas. Isis scientist can quickly and accuratly focus generation 2 drugs to block proteins in the body that are causing problems. It's a very long story and well worth the read.
ISIS - got killed for one drug, Mipo. Mipo is showing very potent action and proves the value of an antisense pipeline. I'm in Isis for the long run. It could have a few big catalyst in 2010. I may trade some shares. I'll keep a core in the IRA for the long run.
http://tinwhiskers.wordpress.com/2009/02...
The link goes to an Alnylam piece. Anylam just inked a potential multi billion payout with Roche for antisense. If you follow biotech you know that Roche has discared many of their biotech partnerships in 2009. Impressive to see them commit to antisense in 2010.
Alnylam are actual partners in antisense development. Alnylam saw a big ramp in results when Isis sent a couple of their scientist to their labs to help with the ramp.
If Mipo fails to get approval, I don't expect it to, I hope to pick up a heavy load of shares for a 5 year outlook on the pipeline.
ISIS - long
Severely oversold and a large short position.
Sold my one long position
AMED is heavily shorted and has been running up four days. Feels like squeezing the shorts may be a game that is rolling over.
Naked in my shorts NYB and HOG, not adding to the positions.
Forgot about the 3 days weekend. Not sure how to position for that.
Germany and France want a weak euro
The PIGS may be in trouble.
Here comes the Greek bailout, rally time
Hope it's big, I plan to short it.
Then you have those BK numbers today. Is there is no limit to what they will release as offical Government numbers?
Huge disclaimer should come with those cooked numbers, today:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to let homeowners on the verge of foreclosure stay in their homes for six months -- if they turn over the deed to their property.
..."Why should we all go through the foreclosure process and evict people?" said Sanjiv Das, Citi's top mortgage executive. Avoiding foreclosure, Das said, is "less painful for our borrowers as well as for us."
Borrowers in Citi's program will still need to pay their utility bills. But Citi will pay at least $1,000 in relocation costs and will consider helping out with other expenses. Citi also plans to provide relocation counseling.
=======================================
They are now paying people to squat, oh my. That is a far more accurate indication of what the phantom investory looks like and the actual foreclosure numbers should be. Are the Gov numbers intended to provide data to make the country make better decisions?
I'm very afraid of what is being covered up via Freddie, Fannie...and the Fed and it's trillion dollar bag of goodies.
Host site of Olympics bankrupt
Whistler lenders move to foreclose
Wall Street financiers say they are going to put the Whistler Blackcomb resort up for sale while the facility is hosting Winter Olympic events next month.
Creditors who have lent $1.4 billion US to the ski resort's owners, Intrawest ULC, have effectively seized control of the company and are attempting to auction off its assets.
Whistler Blackcomb, one of numerous ski resorts Intrawest owns in Canada and the U.S., is set to host major ski events at the Olympic Games next month.
On Tuesday, a notice of a public auction to be held Feb. 19, 2010, was published in newspapers in Canada and the United States, soliciting bids for a membership interest in Intrawest Holdings. Among the assets in the notice were "partnership interests in two resort properties located in Canada (Whistler and Blackcomb)."
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/01/20/intrawest-whistler-olympics.html##ixzz0fAx0OVKZ
Vancouver is the coastal city. Whistler Blackcomb is where the events will be taking place.
If Wall Street is ready for the Greek Bailout rally
There could be trouble. Started a few shorts.
The you have this headline from a month ago:
Two-thirds of Germans unhappy with government
CHANCELLOR ANGELA Merkel's coalition government has fallen out of favour with two-thirds of Germans, just 10 weeks after taking office. Some 67 per cent of those polled by ARD public television said they are unsatisfied or unhappy with the coalition government, paralysed for weeks by a tax cut row. Yesterday's poll showed that a majority of Germans are...
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/01/09/Twothirds_of_Germans_unhappy_with_government/
Also have a vote in Iceland about paying the Danes & British for the losses they incured with Icelandic banks. Last August the polls showed 70% against.
Freddie Mac to Buy Back Delinquent Mortgages
Published: Wednesday, 10 Feb 2010 | 10:57 AM ET
Government controlled mortgage finance company Freddie Mac says it will buy back troubled loans contained in securities it has already sold to investors.
http://classic.cnbc.com/id/35330336
Home Loan Demand Drops Despite Dip in Rates
U.S. mortgage applications dipped last week, reflecting reduced demand for home purchase loans even as rates on 30-year loans fell to their lowest since December, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
http://classic.cnbc.com/id/35326674
Bailout, market wants to rally off a coverup announcement
Finally, the new paradigm.
So many ways to wean ourselves off foreign oil.
Just need to get out of the way of private enterprise and subsidize the private sector in getting this effort started. Looks like a path that would create a lot of new jobs. Hundreds of billion sent overseas every year to pay the oil bill.
Great news. I'll have to do some googling to see what is going on. Shouldn't every city bus and tractor trailer already be running on natual gas?
AZDDF.PK
So many ways to wean ourselves off foreign oil.
Just need to get out of the way of private enterprise and subsidize the private sector in getting this effort started. Looks like a path that would create a lot of new jobs. Hundreds of billion sent overseas every year to pay the oil bill.
Great news. I'll have to do some googling to see what is going on. Shouldn't every city bus and tractor trailer already be running on natual gas?
a "punch" that will stun world powers
Iran warns it will 'punch' the West on Islamic revolution anniversary
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, has said that the country was set to deliver a "punch" that will stun world powers during this week's 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution.
Published: 7:00AM GMT 09 Feb 2010
===============================================
Anyone have an idea what kind of punch is going to stun the world powers? Maybe they will really do something that will unfreeze the stalemate.
Could they have nuke ready to test in an underground explosion?
Shanghai index looks dangerous
Sub 200 day
20 & 50 day have rolled over and the 200 day only needs another week.
It may rally, it doesn't look healthy.
Cincy, seeing it the same way
Waiting for the talking heads to confirm the damage has been "contained". I'm so old school it hurts. I expected this reaction although I don't agree with it.
Covering up serious debt problems so that they slowly bleed countries is the new paradigm of a bull market.
You say "bail out" I say coverup
The market likes it and asks no questions. The real news is that bad debt is being exposed with time. Looking to play the dark side sometimes this week.
Goldman does not want you to watch this one
IndyMac BK'ed and got bought out by One West Bank, guess who owns One West Bank (Goldman Sachs)
http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/archive/1/29027
Huge profits on the short sell and FDIC guarantees a profit on everything. The guys did a great job on this one and want everyone to spread the video.
Greece is to sovereign debt as Lehman was to the Financials
Spain is about to come under market pressure to prove it's solvency:
The Coming Housing Crisis in Spain, and What It Means for Europe
1/7/2010 2:30:00 PM
Economic woes in Europe's PIGS (an acronym for Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, states at the periphery of the EU) have been grabbing headlines recently. Greece's swan dive has gotten the most attention so far, but there's likely another economy in line for the springboard: Spain.
It's only just now started to show up on everyone's radar, too. When all attention was on housing prices, Spain looked relatively stable: Over the last year, average housing prices dropped a mere 9%. As HSBC bank put it (italics added), "The [price fall] is much smaller than the 20% peak-to-trough drop seen for the UK housing market or the 32% fall of US housing prices, and is difficult to explain given the dominance of the housing market in the Spanish economy."
Not so difficult. Spanish banks are holding all the properties. It's a repeat of a strategy from the early 1990's, when local banks held onto their property portfolios until economic recovery caught up and let them unload the properties at acceptable prices. Makes perfect sense -- if it worked before, why not try it again?
The only problem is Spain's "resilient" property market is likely ready to evaporate. The Bank of Spain has doubled the amount local banks must set aside to cushion repossessed property losses, and with liquidity already hard to come by, the banks have no option but to sell their properties. June estimates by Spanish bank BBVA said that housing prices would drop by 10% in 2009 and 12% in 2010, with a total 30% peak-to-trough drop. A December review hasn't changed those numbers.
We've all seen the devastating impact of a 30% drop in housing prices in the U.S. Imagine what it might do to a country that already has the Eurozone's second-worst unemployment rate (nearly 20%, second only to Latvia), whose credit outlook has been downgraded to negative, and whose budget shortfall for 2009 is five times last year's levels.
Keep also in mind that Spain is the Eurozone's fifth-largest economy, which, because of its buoyant property sector, has been a vital intra-Eurozone source of demand for export-reliant markets like Germany.
If Spain's domestic financial system becomes more unstable, the shockwaves will be felt throughout asset and interbank markets. Keeping your European investments safe in a world economy this turbulent requires constant updates on market moves all over the Eurozone.
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=emw
If we get a rally on "contained" news I'm looking at a few shorts.
NYB, FMBI, WL, ZION - all are regional financials with heavy exposure to commercial real estate. I don't want to fight the Fed so I'm only looking for short term scalps.
Our Super-wealthy have been selling earnings beat/good outlook
'da markets continue to feed my paranoia.
Saints are going to be juiced on emotion, an maybe something else. It is Pro Football and 75% of the players don't look natural. If the Colts can't hold them in check early it could be a blowout.
If the Saints don't have a big lead going into the fourth quarter they have to face the best fourth quarter quaterback ever, Manning.
Super-wealthy investors move billions out of Greece
Sunday 7 February 2010
A staggering €8bn-€10bn (£7bn-£8.7bn) may have been taken out of Greece by private investors since it became engulfed by economic turmoil in November.
Under pressure from the European Union and international markets to rein in the nation's €300bn debt, socialist prime minister, George Papandreou, announced last week that he would have to enforce tough deficit-cutting measures. But the coming austerity package is leading panicked wealthy Greeks to divert their savings out of the country.
"In the last four to six weeks a lot of money has been moved abroad; I've heard extraordinary figures," analyst, Kostas Panagopoulos said.
..."Greece has a lot of rich people who are not being taxed properly because there is so much tax evasion," finance minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou, told the Observer. "If you look at the actual numbers, you will see that the number of people declaring over €100,000 a year is roughly 15,000," he said. "I don't think that there is anyone in this country who believes there are only 15,000 Greeks earning more than €100,000 a year."
The growing flight of funds from Greece has whipped up much resentment among the public. "It's revolting," said one popular radio chat-show host last week. "After pillaging the country, they flee with their ill-gotten gains at the very mention of the word tax."
"People are moving funds either because they don't trust our banking system, want to avoid what they fear will be taxes on deposits or are simply anxious about the future of our economy."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/07/greek-rich-pull-out-billions-debt
If I hear "the problem is contained" Monday, I know to panic.
Standard & Poor's take on Regional Banks
Commercial Real Estate exposure is going to be a serious problem for regional banks with high exposure. Anyone else notice the Feds recent effort to get cash to the regionals "to get credit lending going"?
Maybe the Fed is actually trying to get ahead of the CRE problem unfolding in 2010.
Standard & Poor's Feb 1, Global Credit Portal
S&P - Recognition Of CRE Losses Could Wipe Out Banking System
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services believes that U.S. banks' real estate exposures may trigger substantial losses on the financial system during the current economic cycle. Each real estate cycle is different, and this one is likely to be different from the one during 1990-1993. In our view, however, that does not mean that this cycle should be any less severe. Although the causes of this cycle, and the players, are different, the sector nevertheless is likely to suffer the same degree of supply and demand imbalances and price declines that historically devalued the collateral backing real estate loans, resulting in severe losses for lenders. The severity of commercial real estate (CRE) cycles has always caused us to view CRE lending as one of the riskiest loan categories for banks. Therefore our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) methodology assigns a higher risk weighting for these loans than for most other asset classes. As a result, banks with high CRE exposure were generally rated lower than banks without this exposure.
In addition, elevated CRE exposure has driven many bank downgrades in the past two years, particularly of regional banks or finance companies with outsize exposures. Even though most highly exposed banks with weaker balance sheets are already rated below investment grade, more downgrades are possible; indeed, approximately 75% of the rated banks with the largest exposure to CRE carry negative outlooks. On a more positive note from a ratings perspective, even though many of the rated banks could suffer heavy losses, we believe that their capital is in most instances sufficient for them to pull through, as long as the losses are realized over a few years rather than taken at once, and as long as liquidity can be maintained. CRE exposure generally tends to represent a higher proportion of smaller, largely unrated community banks' exposures. Therefore, there is a greater proportion of risks in the unrated banking sector.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Worst%20Yet%20To%20Come.pdf
"problems are likely to be contained", nothing left to contain problems at this point. The tide is going out and I don't see how anyone is going to be able to hide some ugly realities.
borusa, I'm thinking we have a real problem
The smart money, with inside knowledge of the world, sold earnings that beat and guided up. Sold off the best of the best as they reported, pink sheet type of action that made no sense to me. I think the smart money knows more than I see with government statistics & earnings that can only reflect backwards worldwide.
Government stats and the big lie:
"problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained"
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20070328a.htm
The smart money at Goldman Sachs was short subprime and more at that time. I'm guessing the smart money wants a bounce to continue to sell into.
What's next? The quarter that finally looks forward and tells us what a mess we have. A mess that will not be bailed out with a stimulus package, lower rates or toxic debt rolled over and hidden as public debt that has no expiration date.
More lies from Government stats:
Unemployment with the new method shows that things improved and unemployment is now 9.7%. Followed by a revelation that we lost 1.2 million more jobs than thought??? Greece is only the excuse for a worldwide selloff that is probably now in the trillions.
Give me a Monday bounce to short, please. If I lose my arse on shorts it will be a good thing.
Dubai got a short term coverup, no worry
For those that forgot history, it took Republicans and Democrats to add 7 trillion of debt to the taxpayer ledger
http://www.thedailyshow.com/collection/262945/best-ben-bernanke-moments/176740
It's the Stupid Economy
http://www.thedailyshow.com/collection/262945/best-ben-bernanke-moments/125223
2006 clip, and this comedy show got the Bernanke legacy correct, before the implosion
As Greece plays out next week, I found this on Germany
The Great Repression in Germany
Niall Fergusson
For all these reasons, European banks—and especially German banks—are in fact in a worse position than their American counterparts. Fact: EU banks have combined assets of around 330 per cent of their GDP, compared to U.S. banking assets of 50 per cent. Fact: EU banks have approximately 75 per cent as much exposure to U.S.-originated “toxic assets” as American banks. Fact: The German government estimates that there are toxic assets with a nominal value of over $1 trillion (€800bn) on the balance sheets of German banks. Only a lack of pressure from national regulators and a lack of scrutiny by investors has postponed (and I emphasize the word “postponed”) the day of reckoning. But that day is now fast approaching.
The European Central Bank recently estimated that Eurozone banks face additional losses of more than $283 billion this year. That could be an underestimate, however. According to the International Monetary Fund, Eurozone banks have so far written down $504 billion of losses on toxic assets, compared with write-downs of $738 billion by American banks. The IMF thinks that European write-downs still to come this year and next year will total $540 billion.
And remember: European banks also have more exposure than American banks to both Asia and Eastern Europe, with loans respectively of around $700 billion and $1.3 trillion. Though not quite as exposed to Eastern Europe as the Austrian and Swedish banks, Germany’s banks are not far behind.
And what does the German government propose to do about all this? The answer is to create so-called “bad banks” to which banks can transfer their toxic assets in return for government-guaranteed securities with 90 per cent of the toxic assets’ book value. The idea is that the bad securities can sit in those off-balance-sheet warehouses for up to twenty years. Surely by then (the reasoning runs) they will have recovered most of their value. Since today many of these assets are only saleable at around 20 per cent of their book value, the government is effectively buying time for the banks. What it is not doing is recapitalizing them. That would be much too “Anglo-Saxon”. I do not always agree with Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times, but his verdict on the plan strikes me as about right: “obviously daft”.
http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/ArticleItem.aspx?pageid=212
Less than 10 minutes to read the whole article at the link. Maybe Germany isn't able to help Greece or Portugal if they wanted to. Maybe a deflated Euro is needed by more countries than we realize.
ed, too funny
Andy Samberg almost had his own show on Fox, before SNL. The pilot show is off the wall humor. I thought it was great.
http://www.esquire.com/the-side/qa/awesometown