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Looking at previous BP tops, it's plausible that even though BP charts appear to be weakening, they could hang around the area of the highs for two weeks before they go down significantly.
But are observations from a roaring secular bull market applicable to a cyclical bull in a likely secular bear? I guess we'll find out.
"Well, since the March low, anytime we have closed above the 13-EMA after having closed below it and made a low, we've moved up an average of 132-points to our next top:"
Those previous instances didn't have $BPNDX below the 20 EMA.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPndx,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pc20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&...
My Hungarian must need improvement. <g>
"short may run"
Translation, please? <g>
OK, thanks for clearing that up.
So how come you changed your mind about stopping out when NDX passed through the 20 EMA?
I wonder if $BPSPX is going to turn and go up to 90? <g>
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPspx,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pc20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&...
Is the global economy still getting worse? The talking heads seem to want us to believe it's starting to get better.
So we should be stopped out at this point, right? You said you were long.
A week ago you said "buy or enter a new position at the 13EMA, with a stop at the 20-EMA."
Is that no longer good advice? Is so, why?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1112135
I think it's important for people reading that to know that if the change in trend indicator does not get triggered, you may still forecast a change in trend for other reasons. In other words, if I understand your thinking, once this indicator comes into play, a close five or ten points off the low is evidence of a change of trend in progress, but a close on the lows is not necessarily evidence that a change in trend won't still happen.
When I look at that chart in detail, I see some minor whipsaws, in return for some major upmoves/downmoves captured/avoided.
Looks like the 13 EMA is going to hold.
Well, if you think NDX is going to double this year then I suppose 1999 would be a good model.
Are you concerned at all about the fact that $BPNDX just crossed below the 20 EMA?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPNDX,uu[h,a]daclnnay[dd][pc20!f]&pref=G
Where do you see a triple top on that chart?
OK, thanks for your patience.
I thought the idea was to know when it was safe to trade on the long side, not to use it for every trade decision.
So, as a short term trading tool, one would buy whenever NDX hit the 13 EMA from above, and stop out if it closes below it?
BTW, holding for three months is not LTBH.
On the contrary, it looks to me like using the 13 EMA on the indices would have caused one to get whipsawed several times since March.
A while back you were using the 20 EMA on the BP charts. Seems to me that would have kept one correctly bullish since March 18th. I'm having trouble seeing why you are saying they haven't been useful lately.
Sounds like head and shoulders patterns are totally useless.
It certainly seems so to me.
Well, looks like NDX managed to close three points off the low.
That link doesn't seem to work.
Do you still think that holders of the Rydex short fund should hold on?
BTW what was the rationale for identifying midday today as a likely turn point?
The reason I was asking is that it is showing EMA13 as 1187. If that is correct, then it appears that the 13EMA has held so far.
Does this chart show the current EMA or is it stuck on June 6th?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f...
I'm confused (again!). Are you saying that if we close on the lows, it means we have NOT switched into a downtrend?
I think you meant to address that to AJTJ.
What do you do when it's between the 9EMA and the 13EMA?
Analogies aside, it seems to me that the correlation between the Dow and the other averages has been pretty loose for the past few years.
How sure are you that the SPX is not the "big daddy" of the "happy family," and that the Dow is not the senile old grandfather that no one pays attention to any more?
The S&P is a much broader average, and might be the one that the big money boys pay attention to.
As the old saying goes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." <g>
You're right, I missed the 965 in my notes, but the question is, given the way markets interact, wouldn't the August S&P high provide significant resistance to the comp reaching 1720?
But since the S&P hasn't broken through 962.70 I would think that it would be too soon to be calling for 1720 on the COMP.
Wouldn't the 8/27/02 top of 962.70 on the S&P provide serious resistance?
This might seem like an odd time to ask this, but a while back I think you said you expected to see comp(?) 800 at some point. Is that still your view, and if so what is it based on and what would be the time frame?
Incidentally, 12 ounces is still a pound in apothecary weights. The apothecaries' ounce is also known as the troy ounce.
You are correct that when we say "ton" in the U.S. we mean 2000 lbs. This is also known as the short ton, while the British ton of 2240 pounds is called the long ton over here.
There is a nice table of units of measure in the dictionary.com entry on measurement:
http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=measurement
I understand that residents of New Mexico often have trouble convincing mail order clerks that they don't live in a foreign country!