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Hi Michael,
I do not follow any of the individual PM equities. And I do not have that high a level of comfort that the XAU is ready to explode.
Ya never know with the PMs. A few months ago the XAU formed a perfect ascending triangle then broke to the upside. Next day it collapsed - a nicely executed trap by daBoyz.
Despite all the upside crossovers of the XAU recently, you still get the feel that not enough downside work has been done yet to carve out an I-bottom.
Quiet thread today.
After yesterdays nice XAU performance and todays partial retracement, I would expect a "statement" day (or series of days) next week some time. Possibly a few more days of floundering first.
Of course there are no guarantees of this, I am 60% loaded in PMs and thats about as high as I'm going to get. Maybe one more 10% add if the setup looks good.
<<Tomorrow is nail biting time. Will the crossover hold or was it a fakeout??>>
XAU uptrend continuing along intact. 3.4% today is nice, but I'm the guy who held on from 150 all the way down. Still awaiting a more demonstrative effort to confirm the uptrend.
I look to be sitting between +8.0 and +8.5% YTD after todays move.
It appears that today will provide the PMPIX entry that I was looking for yesterday. Will tack on another 10-20% - see how the close goes.
Tomorrow is nail biting time. Will the crossover hold or was it a fakeout??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU&p=D&st=2005-12-14&id=p22299305031
I was considering adding had the XAU close down near the 20DMA, but as usual the intraday loss dissipated away.
Once your free access is over, you can use the Nasdaq web site or several others on a day to day basis to keep current.
Or if you want my source:
http://www.masterdata.com/
$100 per year. Gets you historical prices and A/D info on several dozen indexes, not just the NAZ.
You may be able to do a free trial and download what you want.
I have that data tarm. Can you send me PM with your Email?
CJ that chart of the XAU indicates that A/D support did in fact hold the line, but I still am not certain if the XAU is out of the woods.
We will need a "statement" upside day to get me feeling a little better.
With a nice close, my port may see a 1% gain today, which will put me in the vacinity of +8.5% year to date. This is in the area of YTD gains posted by the major indices. Needless to say I would like to do better.
I might be wrong on this, but I am going to add to my Precious Metals position here based upon technicals. Keeping it light though, still the lingering memories of those 7% one day haircuts.
Will make it a 10% add, which will put me up around 50% in the XAU.
the XAU has been very stealthy. Most seem to think that further downside is in the cards. It seems. I have been very cautious. I added exactly at "THE" bottom (at least the bottom to date), but only upped by 7%.
You stochastic crossover looks very interesting. I've been eyeing the 20-DMA on the XAU. I would like to see it taken out to the upside. In the following chart, the 20DMA is represented of course by the mid line of the Bollinger bands:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU&p=D&st=2005-12-14&id=p86451158300
POG is continuing to show weakness at $575, but the PM indexes have been ignoring that in past few trading days.
Could've made some nice coin had I gone in heavier than 7% a couple days back, but at that time things didn't look so hot.
I am still not certain that the XAU is out of the woods, nor if that 117 was an intermediate bottom.
POG has been weakening throughout the day, but the PM indexes have been strengthening.
Continuing to hold with a 40% position in PMs and about 35% in SPX/NDX/RUT.
Hammer time??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU&p=D&en=&id=p36627439508
Its a good looking H&S formation, but it will need to puncture 115 neckline to be valid.
DOW broke through yesterday, now time to open the floodgates I guess.
I haven't been impressed with new highs vs. new lows on the Nasdaq.
Check it out, XAU threatening to go positive.
<<Also reduced the NDX/SPX/RUT position from 100% to 33% today.>>
As usual my timing is impeccable.
I like the 110 area as well.
I added a mere 7% to my PMs today, which should take me to 40% or so. I am cognizant that falling knifes like todays will tend to keep on falling.
Also reduced the NDX/SPX/RUT position from 100% to 33% today. It was a planned trade and its over. Was hoping it could take some sting out of the PM hit, but like Calamine lotion on Poison Ivy it doesnt do a whole lot of good.
With XAU down 4%, I will need my 100% NDX/SPX/RUT position to gain 1.5% in order to breakeven today.
If XAU can close down here in the 123's (or lower) I will make my first add.
It is the last month for "sell in May and go away".
Had I heeded that maxim, I would be up some 20% YTD right now.
thx tarm.
Not a great way to start off Q4 - for me that is. You are looking much better.
What happened to the markets a few hours ago. Was looking at small gains when I went out to run errands.
Came back and I see NDX appears to have dropped 20 in a matter of a few minutes.
OT: Jim, I must admit that the Ohio State University looked pretty dominant in handling my Hawkeyes last night. Iowa made it interesting for a brief time in the first half, but ultimately the OSU talent took over.
Can't hate the Buckeyes too much, they are quite a talent pipeline to my fave NFL team the Buffalo Bills, who sport 4 OSU alum.
Not a half bad YTD Steve, although I know you have higher goals. Also, congrats on the business success
I was surprised to see myself at +6% YTD despite holding through the PM carnage. I had a piece of the gain in the general equities markets over the past month which helped out.
I also am hoping for an opportunity to move into the PMs in a more significant capacity.
We'll see Jim.
A selloff on Monday/Tuesday will need to fight off the usual first of the month inflows.
<<I am going to increase RUT/SPX/NDX for beginning of month action.>>
I have a 100% position in RUT/SPX/NDX for Monday, in addition to 35% PMs.
The Stock Traders almanac has 2 bullish days on tap, with weakness the remainder of the week. (Actually Thursday isnt so bad, Wed and Friday the downers.)
Juss sittin tight with the metals.
After several weeks of doing nothing, I am going to increase RUT/SPX/NDX for beginning of month action.
Yes, the DOW nearing an ATH, the SP500 I believe is at a multiyear high.
But the other indexes: COMPQ, NDX, NYA, RUT, MID are still a good distance away from their highs of a few months ago.
I havent been posting much lately, haven't made a trade in several weeks it seems. Looking for a close at the low to add to the PM position, but even they've been tough to come by.
I also maintained the status quo as the markets improved into the close.
The STA suggests a few days of weakness to close out September.
Will increase exposure to NDX/RUT/SPX today assuming the weakness continues.
However we may see further selling on Mon/Tue to set up the usual end of the month/quarter buying.
Continuing to hang with modest long positions (about 25% NDX/RUT/SPX) and 35% PMs.
The XAU may be carving a local bottom and preparing to make a run for 133, a former level of support. If I am going to add, it will need to be on a down day.
Ultimately the XAU may be heading lower.
Also staying put.
Nice rebound for XAU today, but I've still got lots to make up.
No changes here tarm. Long about 22% NDX/RUT/SPX. Long 35% PMs - which took another hammering today.
Bad day for the board it seems.
I am hoping the my 20%-ish position in NDX/RUT/SPX will cover PM losses today.
Regarding the miners, I had established earlier in the year that I thought that gold would be heading to $2K to $3K per ounce by 2020. As such I was determined to establish a core position of 25% that I would hold all the time.
I am beginning to think that maybe this is not a good idea. I worked hard for 8 months of the year to build up decent gains only to give away half of them in 3 days.
Left the XAU position alone today - looks to have cost me about 3% today. I probably hold about a 35% position in the PM fund after todays hit.
But cut the NDX/RUT/SPX position back to 20%.
The main indexes rebounding, but they will not be able to stem the gold slaughter in my port.
The XAU has achieved the 132 support level already, I will consider adding at EOD.
The quickness with which XAU got here leads me to believe that the selling has much more work to do.
But these huge gaps need to fill. Committing funds at this point cound lead to a few months of pain before recovery.
Do not be surprised if gold bottoms overnight and finishes up tomorrow, seen it more often than not.
POG getting whacked tonight, down under $600.