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Obama nation! that has an ominous sound. I shudder to think what social changes he may push. Are we going to be polarized into the United States and Obama Country? It's not such a ridiculous thought as may be first imagined. My father immigrated from Czechoslovakia...as you know they divided along racial lines into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. It's too bad that geographically the left-winger domination is mostly in the Northeast, and Far West. I think many of us in the middle of the country could be persuaded into such a separation.
gleno..too bad it does seem to be mostly a net zero-sum game. I have been mostly long this month..I have been fortunate enough to catch the big up days, anyway, and then short at times. I will probably be mostly in cash, and some short for tomorrow. Regards.
learningaboutinv.....you are spot on in your comments. But, I don't know if Gleno will listen. I told him last month that April was going to be a profitable rally in a bear market..and has he heeded that?..I think not, he is still leaning bear. What's a person to do?
smartone..you are good with your market analysis/trading. I appreciate your insights, and wanted to compliment you.
We look at political issues through different prisms, but I usually tend to agree with you on your market views.
btw..I don't think you have ever announced your preference for the dem candidate that finally emerges. I would guess Obama?? Either way, a dem is going to get elected, right?..and that means within a matter of weeks or a month at most, we will have all of the economic and social problems fixed...of course we will. sure.
I wonder if one was inclined to put ANY stock in the forecasts, if one might be ahead to fade the prediction. Maybe not...in his defense, it's hard to be consistently accurate in calls like that.
Dan..must be not terribly unusual then..my first wife passed away at age 47..later I married a sweet, trophy wife, 13 years younger than I. We have had those comments..and of course the unspoken thoughts. The best things I have done in my life was to marry those two sweet women....they are both prizes.
I shorted the RUT yesterday instead of the NDX..and so far the relative weakness of the RUT is paying off. I am about to take profits. gl/gt.
Well, what a relief. Dems say their party is safe. That doesn't mean that we stooges who pay the taxes are, of course...
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/21/as-fight-likely-to-continue-some-dems-say-partys-safe/
How the markets REALLY work.....
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/187.html
fwiw..if one is inclined to short the Q's, you might consider shorting the RUT instead. Buying TWM will do it. One look at the relative strength of the two indexes will tell why. The Q's are getting a lot of help from the SOX.
woodfish.......wow..what a cogent explanation of our "progressive" tax system. Thank you so much for passing that on. That item needs to be posted everywhere, "'til it rings in every ear...etc".
So, I believe a proposal has been floated here that the bulk, if not all, of the sugar cane growth and processing take place outside of the U.S., and that we lower ethanol tariffs and import the product from producing countries.
I muse at the impact that necessary level of growth and processing might have on the global community, or upon the environment of Brazil or similar countries. Surely there must be careful studies, and real science, before such investments could be made. I fear that, if things are done in the usual way..that after 10 years of financial commitment, a snail-darter, acid rain, or similar cause dear to the heart of the eco-terrorists would stop the production.
Brazil seems to be a friendly nation now..but if they were the nexus of a new OPEC, and could wield economic power over the US..and a Hugo Chavez type leader emerged..well, we can all guess the rest.
It appears that corn is not the ethanol answer. I agree that long-term, fossil fuels are not the answer either. My personal preference for the energy source that provides the best ratio of return/risk is nuclear.......but the eco's go nuclear when that is discussed.
smartone...thanks for the response. Two thoughts..would the processing of the sugar cane on a large enough scale to replace much of oil, pass the U.S. environmental standards? The burning of unused parts of the sugar cane alone might be a problem(?)..would you want a processing plant in your neighborhood?..or are you like the Kennedys..in favor of wind power as long as it's not in my back yard.
If sugar cane is the more efficient product, do you suggest that many acres (millions) of corn be replaced with sugar cane? How do you propose to deal with the exacerbation of the world-wide shortage of food? I would expect the liberal response to be one of another government program of some sort, and at large costs, to counteract the effects of the first government program.......I would love to be wrong.
FM..I am continually amazed at the shallowness of the liberal thinking that almost never reasons out the unexpected consequences of their "causes". Only one case in point..but illustrative..we, who were paying taxes in the 60's and 70's paid large amounts for the Great Society building of very nice apartment buildings in the inner city area of many large cities. The impoverished were given free, or nearly free rent, besides the food stamps and social security checks they received. 20 years later those same buildings were being torn down because the few that were still livable (other buildings had plumbing, wiring, etc stolen, and all sorts of vandalism).....those few were breeding grounds for drugs and crime.
I wish that many of the liberal ideas could be put to a ballot referundum. Those who wanted to pay for those social improvements, if they could be called that, would be free to do so.......but the entire mass of taxpayers would not be so obligated. I know that's not going to happen, because part of the liberal thought is that Washington is needed to TELL people everywhere what they NEED. Sheesh..what a system.
The liberal, green, nut-cakes look foolish once more..."Biofuels have turned out to be a lose-lose-lose proposition"..more Junk Science indeed.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,351590,00.html
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2684806
Interesting charts posted by Michael Smith on the public site. Scroll down to the 4th chart.
golly..I don't see everyone and his brother calling for a breakout. It has been quite the opposite on this board, it seems. Of course, most are trading options so they don't really care which way it goes longer term, I guess.
For we few here, who play day to day moves, it does matter whether the bias is bear or bull. I like playing the extremes for a counter-move...but it helps to know where the underlying market direction is biased.
Good luck with your trades..and hit those drives straight..so you can three putt the green (grin).........I am only thinking of the way I play, minus the straight drives.
Gleno...do you remember comments about a market sea change on 4/1?.....there were some significant markers that had not been seen for months..that was followed a few days later by a triple top breakout on the P&F chart. Yesterday (4/18) there was another triple top breakout. It doesn't get more bullish than that, imo.
I am still playing over-bought extremes on the short side for a day or so at a time..but there are a lot of bullish signs being confirmed. There have been comments about the 3/17 low....yes, that was the low, but there was no way of knowing that real time..only in retrospect. The changes on 4/1 were about as definitive as you get in the market, imo.......say, about 80% confidence.
BTW, I don't think the bear is over..this is just a bear market rally, imo. Regards.
Thanks to all who responded. I will watch and learn...and admire your finesse in the meantime. g/l and g/t to all. Regards.
smart one......OK thanks. Does it also mean that the articles were either mis-read, or mistaken..and that the surrounding "myth" that most players are losers is erroneous.......while in actuality, many if not most, are winners? Thanks for a second response if you have time.
be..just a point of interest. It seems many here are using options to trade. I read articles that say that only 5-10% of option traders make money..and many lose big. While I don't doubt that the option traders here are far above average..still, there must be some who do lose big. I have not seen that discussed on a personal basis. Is it that the losers disappear to lick their wounds, and that only those who can make money trading options remain here?
Please don't misunderstand my questions. I admire those who can and do profit from option trading, and I understand their motivation. Personally, I'm sure I would be among the 90+% who lose....heck, I might just as well write out the checks to the smart guys at the start, and save a lot of stress.
Why are you looking at begining to trade options? Thanks.
FM..I wonder how IB would respond if you pointed those facts (todays buy) out to them? I would think that the market makers (those shadowy figures), would determine in what sequence orders are filled. The fills should be independent of brokerages, should they not?
Some variability between fills might depend on order size, etc.........but if IB consistently gets poorer fills, there would seem to be something amiss.
If the drop is contained around this level, it would seem to be healthy for further gains..it was something that needed to happen.
It's troubling that both the NDX and RUT P&F charts are showing a warning to the bullish side. I think the bottom of the big candle on 4/1 is an area that needs to hold for a push higher. I expect it to hold, but who knows?? Lamont Cranston, perhaps.
lol...no, you and other liberals will get your "science" from politically motivated people who skew facts for political ends.
To infer that studies of climate change impacts have met the rigorous standards of scientific processes is disengenous. It is science in the sense that mideval alchemy was science.
g/l with your trading though.
De-bunking more eco-extremeist nonsense......robins, polar bears, oh my!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,348608,00.html
FM..thanks for the tip. I haven't followed the mid-cap index much in the past..........I'm surprised that it doesn't follow the 500 index more closely. Since Steve has the signal tuned to the mids..that is obviously the way to go. His results are outstanding. I hope I don't put a hex on things. Regards.
Gleno..is there a code for the institutional index that can be accessed on StockCharts?........or, is it an index of his creation, and proprietary? Thanks.
uhhhh-yup. The start of the second quarter (4/1) marked a sea change. I am net short today, but only because of temporary conditions..there should be a bear market rally of some consequence over the next 4-6 weeks, imo. gl/gt.
Hi Sammy.......thanks for bringing that up. I am moving one of my IRA's from Rydex to IAB. Rydex has zeroed the old account..but it hasn't shown up yet at IB.
I have a question for you. When I entered mvv as a dummy trade, there were about 8 various ways (exchanges, I guess) that popped up on the screen. Does it matter which one I use?
Not knowing any better, I guess I would use the amex.....is there one that gets better fills than the other? Thanks much for your response. Regards.
Dan.. your cats sending you to the store to get them some of their favorite treats?? I like cats, but there is no comparison in loyalty to a dog. I liked the observation someone made that to cats, humans are staff...in other words, service workers. Grin.
It appears the price test on the SPX will be around 1380..lots of resistance there. I believe that res will turn prices back for today.
Have you ever mused about market letter writers..who present nothing more profound than you or I can write..charging huge prices like $500/$1000 per quarter for a subscription to their opinions?? I have always reasoned that if their opinions were so correct, they need only to trade them, and be rich beyond measure, rather than gouging "customers" at such an exorbant rate.
OT..good to hear there are a few baseball fans on the board. Interesting that Detroit's lineup was compared over the winter to the '30 A's, or '27 Yankees..yet they are the only ML team without a win yet this season...swept by KC and lose yesterday. Just a bad start, as they will be there at the end.
As for the RS,...my fondest memories are the '78 playoff with Yanks (Dent's homer), and the '86 6th game meltdown in the WS against the Mets. Ahhhhhhhh..the rush! Just kidding, in part, because the competition of baseball is what makes it so fun. Regards to all.
re:ndx...I have some pretty heavy resistance at 1865..breaking that level may have taken a bit of starch out of the bulls, and a close near or below that that level would not be a surprise. A day or two down is probably in order as well..there are some traders sitting on nice profits since the Tuesday huge gain.
Market action seems very nice...better than it has been for months.
NDX joined the triple high breakout party today. While there will be some reversal days immediately ahead..a good April on the long side appears likely. Don't want to discourage any bears though..we need participants on both sides. The market has taken plenty of bull money lately..now, maybe it will give some back.
Gleno..a bear market rally is a long way from missing the recession. It is far more likely that we get a rally, and revisit the Jan lows in the summer. Both moves will be profitable if we aren't locked into a mindset. Good luck with your trading.
If you get to Utah and want to play golf there, let me know..my backyard is the 2nd green on a beautiful course..you might lose a few balls in the mountain streams that criss-cross the fairways..as well as the other water hazards. The course made Golf Digest a few years ago. Cheers.
yes, I believe there has been a short-term sea change in the market following the quarter close 3/31. Rallies will not necessarily be sold lower for the next 4-6 weeks, imo. April 1st was only fools day for the shorts, this year. gl to all.
Against-the-crowd-thinking?....maybe so. I am talking about a significant rally in the month of April being a probability. Tomorrow and Friday I will likely be short..Some of you are looking at the next 15 minutes. The best I can do is try to get the next days probable move right. At any rate, yesterday was a great day to be on the right side, some eod follow on would be welcome today, but most of the extreme oscillators are calling loudly for a move towards the mean. That certainly is the lower risk bet. gl/gt
Oh..the Yankees set a Major League record by winning their 12th consecutive season home opener last night. The team that held the record was a surprising one..the Pirates of late 40's-early 50's. They were an awful team for most of that period.
Very modest profit-taking in the first 30 minutes..now some buying. The action is a departure from that we have seen since December. Get ready to reverse thinking that every rally will be sold, etc...........for a little while.
IRA money will be sent to custodians by the 15th...some or most of it will go to buy stocks.
I see the PPO poked above zero this morning for the first time in '08.
Dan...yeah..no doubt the runup today made some perma bears a little puckery.
It's great to play both the long and short side successfully...but if you're permanently a bear, it's likely your hide is going to be tanned. It's hard to fight the immense forces that can be deployed globally, and especially in the US, to truncate any downside action.
Like most here, I try to pick my spots to go both long and short based on reversion to the mean trends. Long term there is no doubt as to which direction the prices will move......DOW of 16,000 and 20,000? Of course. It is not a question of whether, but when. And, of course, it may take $10 to buy a gallon of milk when it happens..Regards.
yep..agree. That is the normal m.o. for a bear. The bear is not over, but I think there may be a significant rally dead ahead. There really are some beaten down stocks that look like bargains.
Then, of course, we also have the upward thrust from Gleno being forced to cover his shorts..that provides a boost right there.
Wow..what a close. Right on the 1370 resistance line. It can't be done any neater.