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Qui, nothing comes easy in these markets. I have been trading for 25+ years now, and have honestly had more loosing years than winners. But my winning years where stellar, so they offset the loosers.
example 2008 was a disasterous year. Was down 78% at one point. Closed out everything, then re entered the market when the dow hit about 6250. I knew that the bottom was in, or very near. Started buying just 100 shares of ford, Alcoa, Teck commercio AND 19 other stocks. From Sept. 2008 to end of dec. I turned the account around and made up ALL of the 78% loss + an additional 10%.. But I was working with about $30K at the time. That's stellar trading.
A $400 account is going to be difficult, but not impossible. You will likely need to successfully trade it for 4-5 years to get it to maybe $5K.
That would be a successfull run rate at 100% yr. Any stock trader would take that in a heart beat. The FX is probably your best shot at doing this. Once you get to maybe $2k in your account, then pull maybe $500 and buy something like SGLB or PZOO. These are presently my best picks in the penny market. But bear in mind that I also hold some shares in AMAVF ($112 a share).
Best advice I can give you is stick with your short GU. I see signs of reversal coming. Give it time to develop. When it does and it is obvious, then you can add another short and be with the trend. Just set tight & keep reading the board.
Right now, the GU is doing exactly what I expected for today so far. I need it to go up a little to clear out a long GU. Then I set back and watch untill the short trend reverses, and I will start scalping the short side, while all the time holding my (SHORT CORE) position.
"With all the high accuracy this setup has provided you, what has been the percentage gain for you over the prior months trading from it considering your starting balance and your current balance. "
Bottom line is 231.25% last 1 yr. period. Many where small scalps & some where position trades. That's good enough for me, because I am adding more trades as the account grows. The secret is to NEVER take a loss. And I have not had one in almost 11 months. I have had to gut thru some serious draw downs at times, but have come out profitable with each one in the end. ALMOST ALL OF MY TRADES ARE WITH THE PREVAILING LONG TERM TRENDS. But right now, I am expecting a key (kind of) reversal in the GU. So I am counter trend with it at the moment.
Bear in mind that these profits are not from the system that I gave you. I am now using the system that I gave you in conjunction with systems that I have on an MT4 platform. I have entered a trade/actually set of trades, recently using the system that I gave you, but still closely monitor my old system/systems. I know from experience that no one single system is correct 100% of the time. I constantly monitor different systems and look for clues sometimes hidden in 2-3 systems. And I hedge my positions if they go against me. In other words, best example is this.. in 4 GU short and position negative, then start skalping 2 long. Untill the trade turns back to the short side. By scalping the long side in this situation, you effectively keep growing your bottom line balance. And this helps to keep you from loosing to much money, or worse yet, getting margined out...
Your ALL IN thinking will KILL you in this market. Better to go to Vegas and join an 8 man texas holdem table if your gonna try to trade that way. Besides, all in means lots of different levels for different people. I trade conservatively. My account is NOT going to get blown up.
Qui, here are the answers to many of your questions. Broken down by paragraph. Reference the chart below, and it ONLY looks good on the GU 2H time frame. I have not checked it out on others but do know that shorter time frames G/U's are NOT reliable. I am a big believer in custom fitting my systems to specific pairs. They all trade slightly differently, and in the case of the TAC-ADX shown below, the numbers split hairs precisely. The system could very likely trade other pairs, but the numbers would have to be adjusted to fit. That's another subject. At some point in time, the numbers, particularely the TAC-ADX may need to be adjusted to fit new market conditions. And then their is also the possibility that the GU pair could go into hyper move mode, given catastrophic events in the market. But that's a risk that must be on every traders mind. SO WATCH THE NEWS..
Would you take a couple minutes to identify exactly what indicators, moving averages and tools you are using on your main chart. Keltner Channels? What is the white line that the price returns to? And what is the blue line? Are you waiting for a crossover of the blue line over the white line to determine the end of the trend? And are those red arrows on the chart auto or manually placed on the chart?
ANSWER- 1. Set up a keltner channel with (0,1.5,9 (H+L+C)/3,EMA)
Now go down to the area that says plots. You will see
avg upper band lower band
set the avg at any color that you like
then set both the upper & lower band to exactly match
the back ground color of your chart. This renders them
invisible.
This is the fast side of the crossover system
2. Now set up a Rainbow average using(close,9,exponential)
Nothing else needs to be done for this one.
This is the slow side of the crossover, and is the
white line that you refer to as "the white line that
the price returns to".
QUI, These crossover systems are old school trading
systems and have been around forever. On average
they will make money about 75% of the time and you
would be profitable at the end of 1 year trading only
the crossovers. But the best trades come from
watching the spreads, and anticipating in advance
by waiting for a STEEP drop in the fast average and
getting into the trade BEFORE AN OBVIOUS crossover.
The steeper the change (angle of rise or decent) in
the fast average, the better. And it MUST BE OBVIOUS
THAT A CROSSOVER IS GOING TO OCCURR.
3. The 2 red arrows that you see are count back markers
that I placed on the chart, and are associated with
the TAC_ADX, and I will explain them with it.
4. The letters F S B are placed on the chart by me, and
just highlight the crossovers so I can see them more
clearly when I contract the chart to show lots of bars.
F stands for fail, S stands for sell, B = buy.
And what are you using for alerts in second window where you have the TAC_ADX indi (what is the alert trigger for that "Very long term only" indicator window).
Answer. Set up a TAC_ADX (found in the stocks & commodities)
section of the studies menu using the following.
1. Only set the ADX length 3 to 72 bars. The others
are not used, so do not matter.
2. Now go to the plots section, and set EVERYTHING except
the ADX 3 to black them out by matching the color
to your chart color background.
3. Now go to the drawings and pick out/select the price
level line. Take it to the TAC-ADX and drop it on the
chart. Then highlight it and right click. Go to edit
and change the numerical setting to VALUE 12.2
4. Repeat the above, and set the next VALUE at 22.9
5. B = buy S = sell and the yellow line MUST COMPLETELY
DISSAPEAR INTO ONE OF THE 2 RED (DROPPED) PARAMETERS.
it must be read precisely.
Forget the "very long term only", Trade with the
trend indicated. Kind of looks like 2-3 week trades.
Notes-This indicator seems to get into trades early. You
would have to be willing to ride out of the money and
wait out the trend reversal. The technicals would
keep you in the market 100% of the time.
In the "MACD Histogram Crossover(26,12,9, EMA, Positive to Negative)" window, are those white arrows auto placed by the indicator or are you manually placing them in.
Forget it for the 2H time frame. Not used. Was just
something that I thru on a chart for a convirsation
with SG.
Also, in your 4th indi window, it looks like you are using the first bright green upper histo line as a "buy long" trigger. Is that right?
Forget it for the 2H time frame. Not used. Was just
something that I thru on a chart for a convirsation
with SG.
Is there anything else you can share? Are you able to confidently take large positions with this set up? And are you able to trade trend reversals using this setup? At least looking at the specific pair on the specific 2h time frame, that appears to be a very dependable setup to stay in at least through the wave 3 trend waves, if not the full 5 waves, once the 5 waves are underway. I don't have TOS set up right now, but do have an account and can set it up pretty quickly when ready.
The TAC-ADX is designed to pick up trend reversals.
I am in a couple of entry lines (2 mini cont. each line)
of trades at this time, that the TAC-ADX is indicating
are correct (sell) the GU. I NEVER enter trades with
large positions. Test the water before diving in.
When/as the trade develops, the you add more trades
at various levels up or down the trend.
The crossover system is indicating that it will cross
over SOON (see the chart). This will be a nice
confirmation. But I am questioning the rate of decent.
It's a little shallow and could kick out an F = false.
But my other stuff on the MT4 platform will help with
determining if I should stay with the trade. And listen
to what SG and Pennies has to say about specific pairs.
These guys are probably making more money than I am. But
My way has produced 100% positive results for the past
year. Slow but steady wins the race.
QUI, if you have access to the TOS platform, I would recomend using it. Many of the studies are not available on MT4. Just arms you with everything possible to fight the dragon. Better to have 2 spears than only one.
QUI, Please do not ask so many questions at one time. I have spent a LOT of time with this response, and do not wish to make this a habit. This is as detailed as I can make it. Just study & apply. You will learn some things about TA that you likely did not know.
Thanks sg. I see on your chart to Jav that the gap exists. Was looking the thing over and was trying to figure it out. Looked in the black holes, but not in enough detail to figure it out. Now I will look at it closely. Should be able to figure it out now.
Kind of like what I have on my TOS program. 2 min charts & maybe can go to 3 & play a little with it. I do not trade with the TOS, unless I make the trade on mt4. It's kind of a dead account that I keep around. When I have to start pulling money from my IRA (70 1/2) then I will just sweep it over to this margin account.
I don't use TOS for my stock market TA. I use strategy desk. Lots faster to get around in. Also can monitor a LOT more info. with strategy desk, all from the same screen.
Made 2 scalps this morning for 3 pips. GU was being nasty. Stuck in one long scalp (GU) that I dont want, but will get out sunday night. Still short GU for the long haul. Trade count now about 76 correct out of 78 & not one loss in the last 10+ months.
SG, want to talk to you later about how you select the pairs that you want to trade each day. But for now, i'm fried for the day. Checking out soon.
SG. Thanks for the download info. saved it into a folder for future ref. Actually, I now have the true macd overwritten onto the bad MACD. So problem solved.
But I am not getting the correct look out of my overlay. The '0' lines are not matching up. One on top of the other not correct??
Any suggestions?? chart below
P.S.- I clone my hard drive,and back up to a thumb drive regularly. Never gonna loose data again. At least not much, in the event of a crash.
SG, finally got the doubled up MACD, but its the stock version. I have to load 1 from the navigator window, then go over and drop the second one from the nav. window on to the first macd window.
see chart below. Just a random one i applied it to.
Have the MACD True downloaded, but having problems figuring out how to get it installed from the meta editor correctly. Have not really used this stuff in a long time. Rusty at it.
That's the way it should work. I do not have any problems with saving templates. Have saved a few lately, and MT4 is working well enough to get by. But need to check it out when nothing else is on my mind.
I whacked it on the dip this morning at .40 & now back to .45 so already profitable. Whoops, now .46. Judge siding with the company big time coming out of bankruptcy. Actually think that I am going to hold this one for quite a while. Was $18 a share not to long ago.
Great, now I have 11 of them to watch. But been as high as 22
SG, I will play around with it this weekend. Thinking that something could be corrupted in my mt4 platform. Used to be able to write simple programs with it years ago, but have forgotten a lot about how to use the program. Had some problems with some big indicators that I downloaded some time back. Maybe messed something up. Will look for your true MACD later, and try to import it.
SG, It's just not happening. Have already tried it in the indicator window with different settings. And also went into metaeditor and wrote a program by copying & pasting and changing the numbers in the program. Re named it MACD DOUBLED. I have it saved in my Navigator window now. It should work, but I can not even get the MACD DOUBLED to show in my indicator list so that I can activate it this way.
SG, Just no way that I can get them to overlay. Different #'s set and will not drag & drop. MT4 needs to add something to enable setting the data window # to show in, not default to a new window.
No time to mess with it. Got other stuff to watch now.
GU breaking down ginda hard on the short term charts, but reversal in direction still not evident/convincing to me based on the daily or 2H chart.
Looks like GU is trading off of the Canadian CPI no's. (slightly bullish for the dollar). But still have 3 stoodges yapping later today..
Nice short term decending channel for the last 67 business days, counting today’s bar. Williams daily %r running in the upper range suggesting overbought. And here is a weekly chart that shows both the long term and short term trends. Also, the accumulation/distribution for the last year is indicating selling, commensurate with the downtrend in the stock price.
The 50/200 MA (not shown) are trending down pretty hard, and the spread between the 2 does not look like a golden cross is EVEN REMOTELY in the near future.
This TA is my analysis of the short term facts.
Now for the long term. A nice neat DOWNWARD trending channel can be drawn on a WEEKLY chart starting in mid August 2009, (4 years of data). This channel starts just after the pump & dump spike to around .22, (created by keevles entry as ceo).
The long term decending channel is supported by the volume. It has dried up to almost nothing, relative to 3-4 years ago. The minor 67 day current decending channel fits neatly into this larger decending channel quite nicely. The williams %R for the long term channel is indicating a LOT more weakness overall than strength.
Based on this, the top of the channel presently sets at .047 (that should be it for the next news spike, if one occurrs). And a more likely touch of the lower channel currently sets at .003.
BE SMART, find a stock to invest in where the technicals AND FUNDAMENTALS indicate upward trends and momentum. Not downward trends and momentum.
Keevle HAS FAILED for the past 4-5 years. Now we will see what Mr. Ward can do??
That's all I need to know. first posted on 8/13, 20 business days ago.
Thru 9/20/13
Morning pennies. Yes, it's been frustrating.
I'm gonna KILL XIDEQ (excide batteries this morning) coming out of bankruptcy & been a rocket ship up, from about .15 to now .55
Thanks SG. I tried drag & drop with the reg. MACD but it would not take. May look for the MACD you suggested, but not certian that I will need it.
Been playing with TOS 2M skalping the GU. different system, but uses one of their MACD'S, and a rainbow avg and a mid channel keltner (for cross over). Can switch between the two programs for confirmation, and keeps the charts nice & clean.
Have mt4 on 15M with TDI and 2 keltners set as crossovers.
2 trades long GU so far for a massive 3 PIPS. One contract only to test. In one long right now, but it's being impossiblely difficult.
Willing to go the long side because it makes a little bit of a hedge against my longer term short positions.
Yhooo SG, how did you get the 2 histograms into the same window??
I went into the meta editor and tried copying the program below the original to make it run both, but when I save it to indicators, it does not seem to take (not showing up in indicators list). Also, when I compile just the original MACD it shows me an error message. Just a color error, and the MACD still runs, so must be something minor in the original script.
Decided to play with it a little bit. Been a long time since I messed with custom programs in the meta editor.
This would be simple to do in my old trade station software. Just a drag & drop to overlay.
Any suggestions??
Yes, it's a little risky right now. Next day or 2 should tell. I thought that someone would try to push for a new yearly high, but looking weaker today. But not enough to make me want to go more short at this time.
SG, DUGH, It finally hit me what TOS is. Think or Swim.
LOL, have to much pizzazz in it already for my age. 10 stocks to keep track of, FX, golf, boat & fishing, house to take care of.ect.
Supposed to be retired. Want life to be easy, that's why I want to trade long term for big pips. I can walk away from the computer for a while. Or 1-24 hr. long entrys once in a while.
What is TOS.
I am in the process of getting an older computer running with windows 98 loaded on it. Going to be a while tho. No internet use for this one. I have an old Tradestation software program that will only run on Win. 98 It has some great capabilities for overlaying, writing programs, editing programs ect.
Used to use it all of the time, but will have to enter data manually, or with floppy disks. So 1 min charts out of the question with it. But should be able to come up with some good "confirmation" trading systems. I try to focus on only maybe 3 pairs to trade. Getting to old to jump from chart to chart like you and pennies..
Great, my dream came true. Down side as I see it, is that this guy certianly is not world class, and has had ties to srsr for a LONG time without much happening. Either with his company, or srsr.
Scott did not bring in an outsider with SUBSTANTIAL credentials.
Check out their web site.. And who will you find, the illustrious MERLE G. is their I.R. guy.
Could very well happen. I worked in high tech CNC machining (ortopaedics and hi tech in silicone valley). Small company's dealing with lockheed & others. May not get financial help, but will dedicate free people help with projects they are interested in. Daily communications with engineers, QA, R&D ect. visits, problem solving assistance. It's a partnership with mutual benefit..
Sometimes that's the way to go!!!
Morning SG, took a look at your overlayed MACD and am playing with it a little on my TDAm platform 2H. So far, I have not been able to figure out how to do an overlay on this platform, but have come across something usefull with 2 macd's. One called a macd histogram, and the other a macd histogram crossover, set with the numbers you are showing on your 1M example. But 1M charts are not my cup of tea, because I just don,t have the time to get involved with trying to skalp that fast. Tried it 4-5 years ago, and kind of got in trouble with it. 15M is as low as I go, but glance at a 5M chart once in a while.
You may find this hard to believe, but often when I do some skalping, I just strictly watch the numbers on a 15M chart, and can tell by what I call (to myself) the speed, strength and direction of trade, based on how the price numbers are jumping & gapping around. To do this with a chart would require something like a 5-10 second chart.
The histogram set up (numbers given by you) on my 2H chart actually could let me skalp right from it. It just tagged the drop on the GU.
Thanks sg
P.S. Still using your fib levels set up. Helps with exits when I skalp.
Interesting 10-Q. Just read the important parts, and everything looks pretty good. Not an accountant, but the company is making real progress with becomping profitable. Just from their consultant work. Looks like the right connections are in place to advance the 3dprintrite technology.
One of my favorite companys at this time. Likely will need to buy more.
GU, just speculation on my part, But I think that GU will shoot for a new 2013 price high from here, before backing off. Advertising gimmic for both the U.S. and Brits. Presently a new 2013 high is not to far away. Like 1.63793 back in January. It's only 218 pips above the recent spike high bar...
SG, after looking at the ADM/adx on the mt4 platform, I think that it may be possible to come up with something that would work on an daily chart.
Punch in 72 bars
enter 12.1 for level one
Enter 22.9 for level two
Then check the green dotted line for the recent spike bar on GU daily. Does it not indicate overbought??? Maybe whole indicator can be tweaked for better performance. But the levels I listed above could be a good starting point..
SG, Yes, I found it, but it is totaly different than the one I have with the sinkorswim platform. On the mt4 platform is called AVERAGE DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT. I punched in the parameters, and not even remotely close to what I get with the ADX I presently have set up. The one that I am using is an pumped up version of ADVANCER'S OVER DECLINER'S AVERAGE. Calculates differently.
The ADX that I am using is now showing the most overbought condition for the past year on the GU 2H chart. This thing has to break sooner or later. If not, then the GU is going to go MUCH higher. Have no clue as to where at this time. But I am holding my short positions, and plan on holding them for at least a few more days. Everything is saying OVERBOUGHT. It's killin me, but been in this position before, and come out OK.
Jav. I have been doing some digging, but have come up with nothing for MT4.
If you go to yahoo & type in TAC_ADX it will bring up some info. and allow to see what it is. But I did not find any formula's or programs. Apparently it was in the november 2012 issue of stocks & commodities mag.
TD Ameriturd incorporates some of this stuff in their thinkorswim platform. That is what I am using to get these signals..
Could call them and see if you can get access to the platform. It is a stand alone on your computer, just like MT4. Probably have to have a TDAmeritrade account tho. But might be worth giving them a call.
Quite a bit of cool stuff on it.
Pennies & Jav. I just checked my MT4 platform for an ADX indicator, and found absolutely nothing. I use MT4 from FXDD. I found an advance/decline, but nothin that even looked usable.
Something can maybe be found on the internet that would work with MT4. Look for TAC_ADX Was featured in stocks & commodities magazine at some time. Do not know when, or how long ago.
Sorry guys.
Pennies, sorry, forgot to tell you the timeframe. I am running it on a 2 HOUR CHART. I have this ability with the think or swim platform. Can do some things with this platform that to my knowledge can not be done with MT4, and vise versa. Also, It is specific to the GU. I have not worked with it on other pairs. In the past, I have found (ONE SYSTEM, ONE PAIR ONLY) to be the most accurate. Different pairs react differently. But some systems kind of work across the board, like TDI.
It may work on the 1 hour. I do not like the 4H because it cuts the news bars to close. With the 2H the U.S. and Brit. news is completely separated by different bars. Maybe other time frames also, have not done enough work to know?
Pennies, I expanded the ADX part of the chart so it can be seen better. And can only get the last 3 months of data to show. Needs the slider bar to view the Rest.
Forget the crossover stuff you see on the chart. It is relatively meaningless at this time. Just focus on the ADX.
ADX settings as follows. I do not know if you can presently do this with the MT4 program. Let me know.
1. set the adx for 72 bars (the last line only) if you can find the TAC_ADX (Stocks & Commodity's indicator)). The first 2 are colored the same as the chart background to hide them. note-I may be able to use them in the future, but need to spend a lot more time to possibly incorporate.
2. Set the ADX upper and lower parameters to match your background chart colors, because they are also not used.
3. Now use your horizontal line to SHOOT a lower value at precisely 12.6 MY RED LINE ON THE ADX
4. Then use your horizontal line to SHOOT the upper value at precisely 22.9 MY OTHER RED LINE ON THE ADX
THAT IS IT The rules are as follows.
The indicator must oscillate COMPLETELY from the lower or upper parameter and MATCH or better to qualify as a trend reversal. It must be a very precise match, or do not trade. Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.
This thing kicks out some mega pips trades, and keeps you in the market 100% of the time. Also requires riding out of the money sometimes for days, before going profitable.
Have not found any errors with this set up for the past year, and am thinking that the present SELL signal should work as well. Seems o generally be leading the rest of my indicators.
That's it.
OK pennies, I will send one within the next hour. The adx that I am using is a custom indicator that uses 3 lines of bar inputs, but I have blacked out 2 of them. It is called TAC_ADX and it really gets down & dirty with precise numbers. Like it presently reads 26.1599
I have not checked to see if the standard mt4 adx will read this precisely. But maybe.
When Isend the chart, I will give you my settings.
Strange, housing numbers negative and no upwards movement in GU.. Maybe a good sign.
I like that idea pennies. I am still short my 2 lines of sell entrys.
After tweaking the adx numbers, it moved the sell indication back to the gap up last monday, as the correct sell point.
Pennies, I did some more work on my ADX long term indicator. Had to fine tune the numbers a little bit. I now have it back to the first of the year. It has kicked out 7 signals since then, and is now pretty strongly indicating sell GU.
It is six for six correct this year and basically keeps the trader in the market 100% of the time, but requires riding out of the money some times for several days.
The TDI daily is screaming sell right now, But it does not really PEG THE BAR either.
News coming soon. House ya de da ..
Should resume trading soon. I bugged TD Ameriturd about it last week. They said that they would contact the appropriate people.
Interesting to see what happens with this price. Sometimes reverse splits are good. And this is possibly a situation where it will work.
Hope for a uplisting in the near future.
GU 2 HR CHART. The ADX 75 bar system that I came up with, just went hidden under the reversal line on the bar that ended at 3 o'clock. Good sign (I think) of an upcomming change of direction. The only failure this thing has kicked out for the last 4 months when back tested was a 300 pip rundown in a steep up move. Really not a failure because it would have kept the position long, and would have made a lot of money. Just would have been a little scary.
My keltner system crossover has not developed yet, but it can lag or lead by several bars, so not worried about it at this time.
TDI on the daily chart is VERY high and price is way above the clouds. Looks very much like a reversal to sell GU is here, or very close at hand, for big pips.
Luke, your points are noted and credible, great work. The future here is at least going to be quite interesting. I will be watching closely, but view .03 as a level that must hold on the close. A small intra day spike below will not matter.
Gahana, well, at least labor is cheap over there. I think that you are more in tune with this business sector than I. So will trust your judgment regarding the business model and announced plans.
Regards,
stkjunky
Buckyboy, thanks. I have support at .03 & we seem to be very close with the support/retrace numbers. Volume seems to be a little lower today, so maybe we consolodate here for a while. Would really like to see consolidation with a slight upward bias.
Buckyboy, yes, you are absolutely correct about this..
"Actually T/A is simply about probabilities, not certainties."
But my response to the poster was in relation to a FACT that the price is now below the 50MA. He stated that it was holding, and it is/has not held...