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Well looks like it poked through the recent lows, and settled right back just under the 50ma... looks like the downward movement should find support around that 62.70 ~ 63 area...
I tell you, you guys have been silent today. I guess everyone else caught the shorts today and made a kilin' and are out celebrating? Well, I'll admit, I miss judged and have been optimistically hoping for a bull rally... but I'm afraid I may be disappointed. Anyone have any 'logical' rational for this move today?
nobody notice the drastic change in most every pair and market? Oddly, the u/j seemed at pare... ???
any idea what has given the usd this shot of steroids, at least against the aussie?
Unless it is manipulated, looks to me to be heading toward $60. I am not sure that it will get there, due to the fact that the puppet masters get queasy when it starts to decline... they are scared the house of cards will come tumbling down... and it may, someday. Good to hear from you FJ, and a 'hey' out to ole soapy! ya'll should pop over to the crazy world of forex every now and again!
Hey Git, or any other g.j followers...
Question. From the other sites, they are looking at a bottom falling out drop on the beast, like 1000 points... anyone else see this? It looks to me that the 4 hr beast is at the bottom iRegr zone, which should indicate a rebound long. But with the changes in Japan today, who knows... Any thoughts?
hard to scalp? Had I held on coulda doubled that... woulda, coulda, shoulda... 26 aint bad before 8pm Sunday night.
WOW! did anyone else see this earlier???
This evenings open may be interesting for the yen crosses...
Japan DPJ Election Win Brings ‘Bloodless Revolution’ (Update1)
By Sachiko Sakamaki and Stuart Biggs
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Democratic Party of Japan swept to power for the first time as the nation’s voters turned their backs on half a century of single-party government that failed to reverse economic stagnation and spiraling welfare costs.
The DPJ, led by 62-year-old Yukio Hatoyama, captured at least 306 of 480 lower-house seats, public broadcaster NHK said. Prime Minister Taro Aso indicated he would resign as head of the Liberal Democratic Party, which lost almost two-thirds of its lawmakers in a complete reversal of the last election in 2005.
“This is a bloodless revolution, the first transfer of power from one party to another in postwar Japan,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a political science professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. “The DPJ now faces the tough task of delivering on its promises and showing the Japanese public it can change the system.”
Hatoyama, who quit the LDP in 1993, has pledged to revive an economy emerging from its deepest recession since World War II by boosting child-care spending, cutting taxes and curtailing the power of bureaucrats. His grandfather founded the LDP in 1955 and became the first of that party’s 22 prime ministers.
“This election has been all about changing the government,” Hatoyama said in a nationally televised press conference. “Everything starts now.”
The Democrats had 112 seats before the lower house was dissolved last month. Aso, 68, said the LDP, which had held 303 seats, “must start afresh” in choosing a new leader.
White House Statement
U.S. President Barack Obama “looks forward to working closely with the new Japanese prime minister on a broad range of global, regional and bilateral issues,” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said in an e-mailed statement.
DPJ leaders including Hatoyama have called for a less subordinate relationship with the U.S., which keeps about 50,000 troops in Japan as part of a security alliance that has served as the focus of Japanese foreign policy since World War II.
“We are confident that the strong U.S.-Japan alliance and the close partnership between our two countries will continue to flourish,” Gibbs said in his statement.
Hatoyama’s incoming government must address record unemployment and measures to prepare for an aging, declining population. Japan has the world’s highest proportion of people over 65 years old and the lowest ratio of those under 15. Welfare outlays already make up a quarter of this year’s 88.5 trillion-yen ($945 billion) budget.
‘Sense of Frustration’
“There’s a sense of frustration and we need to change something to improve society and the economy,” said Toshiaki Kato, 42, a Tokyo company employee who voted for the DPJ. “The DPJ is the only political party that can replace the LDP.”
Japan’s economy grew an annualized 3.7 percent in the three months ended June 30, the first growth in five quarters, after an 11.7 percent decline in the first quarter of the year.
Japanese stocks and bond yields may rise on prospects the DPJ will increase spending to boost growth. Ten-year government bond yields will probably rise to 1.7 percent from 1.31 percent by year-end, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average will advance about 14 percent to as high as 12,000, said Yuuki Sakurai, chief executive officer of Fukoku Capital Management Inc. in Tokyo.
“It’s a landslide victory for the DPJ and the equity market will remain excited for a couple of days or even a couple of weeks,” said Sakurai, who helps manage about 800 billion yen in assets.
The yen may also benefit from the DPJ’s pledge to give the Bank of Japan more autonomy, increasing the scope for the central bank to raise interest rates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. overnight interest-rate swaps signal a 19 percent chance borrowing costs, currently close to zero, will be lifted by the end of July.
Aid Package
To finance an economic aid package that would total 16.8 trillion yen in 2013, the DPJ says it will eliminate 9.1 trillion yen in unnecessary spending, tap special accounts managed by the nation’s bureaucrats and abolish some tax deductions.
“We would like the DPJ to carry out discussions that transcend party lines and produce concrete results,” Fujio Mitarai, chairman of the Keidanren, the country’s biggest business lobby, said in an e-mailed statement. “It’s vital that a way out of the economic turmoil is found.”
LDP heavyweights fell with their party. Former Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu, 78, will lose his seat, as will former Finance Minister Koji Omi, NHK said. Kaifu, who was first elected in 1960, would be the first former premier to lose his district since 1963.
‘Time for Change’
“It’s about time for change,” said Yuichi Tauchi, 25, a project manager at a truck manufacturer in Tokyo after voting for the DPJ. “People have been losing faith in the LDP, and a change in politics will hopefully bring about optimism.”
Hatoyama is a scion of Japan’s most prominent political family. In addition to grandfather Ichiro, a great-grandfather was speaker of the lower house and Hatoyama’s father was foreign minister. His younger brother, Kunio, is a senior member of the LDP, and was re-elected yesterday.
NHK estimated voter turnout at 69 percent of Japan’s 104 million voters, which would exceed the 67.5 percent that cast ballots in the last lower house election.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sachiko Sakamaki in Tokyo at Ssakamaki1@bloomberg.net; Stuart Biggs in Tokyo at Sbiggs3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 30, 2009 12:56 EDT
Thanks, that one will take some playing around with to get a good feel for each pair, I think.
did you post a renko 2, that you can set the pips on? Im not sure I saw that. thanks
ok, so you think the fibs will apply to renko? Is there a way to adjust the pip per block? Although 5 is probably good.
Thanks for all the help!
Ha, I also dont know if you can apply fib retrace to the renko blocks...????
Thanks for the renko support this weekend, quick question. When you change the ATR, the screen still says the same as it did before "Renko (52pt)" on the 4 hr. I take it this is not the same as the ATR value? How do the grid lines line up between the price action and the renko? Here's what I got for now...
SG, were you able to login? Mine updated to the new version now says incorrect username / password.
ok, thanks!
ok, so how do you change time periods. it came up with the M2, but do you get the other times?
Thanks for the help!
I think so, it says offline, and well here take a look.
Git,
I had trouble, well couldn't get it to come up on MT4. I downloaded the script, and put it in the expert/scripts folder, compiled, and loaded it, it thinks it is running, but the screen has not changed (still looks like a default chart)
What did I miss?
Thanks
Well, make that 84 now... lost one out in Cali. Just wondering, if your the president of the bank and the fdic has to come in and take over your bank... guess your FIRED! eh?
SG,
I know everyone wants to hear that the sky is blue and the clouds are lifting, but I think this is interesting. I dont have a stockcharts account anymore, so I just 'winged it'. Also, I like fibs, so if you look at this you will see the 89ema, and the 233ema, and the fib 50%... looks to me like the 'recovery' might be a 50 retrace... take a quick look. (like I said, crude chart)
I wanted to add, if you hadn't seen, since I posted the bank failure, another one has gone down. That makes 83.
You probably already have this site marked, but I get a lot of news from it...
http://news.ino.com/headlines/
Looking forward to the Renko-report!
Mega Millions Jackpot Up to $333 Million
Get yourself a ticket
By HASANI GITTENS
Updated 6:56 PM EDT, Fri, Aug 28, 2009
Are you feeling lucky?
If you are, that sensation could be worth a third-of-a-billion dollars.
That's because Friday's jackpot in the Mega Millions multistate lottery game has grown to $333 million.
That's the second largest jackpot in history. The cash payout is estimated at $210.4 million.
The largest payout so far has been a $390 million jackpot shared by a New Jersey couple from Cape May County and a truck driver in Georgia in 2007.
If no one wins Friday night's jackpot, it will rollover to $430 million — the largest in history.
Tickets are sold in California, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Texas, Virginia and Washington.
Sales stop at 10:45 p.m. and the drawing takes place at 11 p.m. Friday.
SG, I was curious which pairs you ran through your renko setup. More too the point, do you think it could be set up to run on the long time frames to catch the major pip trends, say using the 4hr or maybe the daily. I was curious about trying to catch the major trend moves on the beast.
The other thought I was pondering; is it possible to 'blend' 4hr periods together, in other words create a period in between 4hr and daily. 2 together would be an 8 hour block, and if you timed them correctly you could see the ranges of the major markets (i.e. 12am to 8am to catch the london, 8 to 4 to catch ny.... etc.) just thinking out loud...er silently, in cyberspace... freaky aint it.
And how come Oanda doesnt have a weekly or monthly on their charts... makes long term trends tough to plot!
Congrats on the restaurant tv spot!
It's Friday, you know what that means... another bank bites the dust... I took the liberty to bold the scary parts!
Regulators shut Bradford Bank in Maryland; 82nd US bank failure this year
* By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
* On Friday August 28, 2009, 6:41 pm EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday shut down Bradford Bank, a small bank in Maryland, marking the 82nd U.S. bank failure this year amid the soured economy and rising loan defaults.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over Baltimore-based Bradford Bank, with about $452 million in assets and $383 million in deposits as of June 30. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Co., based in Buffalo, N.Y., has agreed to assume the deposits and assets of the failed bank. The nine branches of Bradford Bank will reopen Saturday as offices of M&T.
In addition, the FDIC and M&T agreed to share losses on about $338 million of Bradford Bank's loans and other assets, the FDIC said. The failure of Bradford Bank is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund an estimated $97 million.
Hundreds more banks are expected to fail in the next few years largely because of souring loans for commercial real estate. The number of banks on the FDIC's confidential "problem list" jumped to 416 at the end of June from 305 in the first quarter. That's the highest number since June 1994, during the savings-and-loan crisis.
Last week, Guaranty Bank became the second-largest U.S. bank to fail this year after the big Texas lender was shut down and most of its operations sold at a loss of billions of dollars for the government to a major Spanish bank. The failure, the 10th-largest in U.S. history, is expected to cost the insurance fund an estimated $3 billion.
The sale of most of Austin-based Guaranty's operations to the U.S. division of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Spain's No. 2 bank, market the first time a foreign bank has bought a failed American bank during the current financial crisis.
The insurance fund has been so depleted by the epidemic of collapsing financial institutions that some analysts have warned it could sink into the red by the end of this year. The fund fell 20 percent to $10.4 billion at the end of June, the FDIC reported Thursday.
That's its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the S&L crisis. The agency estimates bank failures will cost the fund around $70 billion through 2013.
U.S. banks overall lost $3.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with a profit of $7.6 billion in January-March, according to the FDIC. Surging levels of soured loans at banks dragged down profits in the April-June period.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said Thursday there were no immediate plans to borrow money from the government to replenish the insurance fund by tapping the agency's $500 billion credit line with the Treasury. The FDIC may, however, impose an additional fee on U.S. banks this year to bolster the fund, atop the estimated $5.6 billion from a new emergency premium that took effect June 30.
The FDIC is fully backed by the government, which means depositors' money is guaranteed up to $250,000 per account. And the agency still has billions in loss reserves -- including $21.6 billion in cash -- apart from the insurance fund.
This week, the FDIC opened the door wider for private investors to buy failed financial institutions. The FDIC's board voted Wednesday to reduce the cash that private equity funds must maintain in banks they acquire.
Private equity funds have been criticized as excessive risk-takers. But with fewer healthy banks willing to buy ailing institutions, the banking crisis has softened the FDIC's resistance to private buyers.
so how did you do? I shut the platform down so I dont know whats transpired in the past couple hours... I did want to mention something I thought about on the way to work... we were talking about the iRegr and the settings, I had mentioned that I was using 244 and something about a fibs number... it dawned on me this morning... duh, 244 aint no fib #, 233 is what I meant. ya'll should have caught that!
It has been another good week. up 32% account value in about 48 hrs of actual trade (underwater for 4 days till Wed morning). So, in an effort not to spend the weekend underwater... I shut it down. Have a great weekend, and will see ya come Sunday night...
Did you get back in on any of the long g/j overnight? I made t/p on a 30 pointer... Trying not to get in a Friday trap today... so Im watching Strongtowers euro dance. Anyone think it will break the 4407 to make new HOD?
Hows the renko MT4 going?
Goodness, when ya'll turn in, you really turn in... I hear crickets around here....
Did I upset you Sherri? My apologies if I did.
FDIC Problem Bank List Surges, Putting Fund at Risk (Update1)
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By Alison Vekshin
Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. added 111 lenders to its list of “problem banks,” a jump that suggests rising bank failures may force the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to deplete a reserve fund that shrank 40 percent this year.
A total of 416 banks with combined assets of $299.8 billion failed the FDIC’s grading system for asset quality, liquidity and earnings in the second quarter, the most since June 1994, the Washington-based FDIC said in a report today. Regulators didn’t identify companies deemed “problem” lenders.
The U.S. has taken over 81 banks this year, including Guaranty Financial Group Inc. in Texas and Colonial BancGroup Inc. in Alabama, amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The surge forced regulators to charge banks an emergency fee to raise $5.6 billion for its insurance fund, which fell to $10.4 billion as of June 30 from $13 billion in the previous quarter, the agency said. The total was the lowest since the savings-and-loan crisis in 1993.
“We’re right in the middle of the cycle and it’s a very tough place to be,” said James Chessen, chief economist at the American Bankers Association, a Washington-based industry group. “We’ll have another couple of more quarters where banks will be working through these loan-loss problems.”
An $11.6 billion increase in loss provisions for bank failures caused the decline in the reserve fund, the FDIC said. If the fund is drained, the FDIC has the option of tapping a line of credit at the Treasury Department that Congress extended in May to $100 billion, with temporary borrowing authority of $500 billion through 2010.
Line of Credit
The agency doesn’t expect to use the Treasury line, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a news conference releasing the data.
“The FDIC has ample resources to continue protecting insured depositors as we have for the last 75 years,” Bair said.
The $10.4 billion insurance fund balance reflects its net worth and doesn’t include an additional $32 billion the agency has set aside to cover losses from anticipated bank failures, according to agency data.
The FDIC board will decide before Sept. 30 whether to impose a second emergency fee this year on the banking industry to replenish the fund, Bair said.
The number of problem lenders and failures will remain elevated as banks and thrifts continue to clean up their balance sheets, she said.
‘Difficult and Necessary’
“For now, the difficult and necessary process of recognizing loan losses and cleaning up balance sheets continues to be reflected in the industry’s bottom line,” Bair said.
FDIC-insured banks reported a net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with a $5.5 billion gain in the first quarter. The quarterly loss, the second the industry has reported in 18 years, was driven by increased expenses for bad loans, the FDIC said.
Funds set aside by banks to cover loan losses rose to $66.9 billion in the second quarter from $60.9 billion in the first quarter.
“The amount that insured institutions added to their reserves for loan losses, by far, is the largest drag on industry earnings compared to a year ago,” Bair said.
Expenses from writedowns of asset-backed commercial paper and higher deposit-insurance fees also weighed on earnings, Bair said.
Nonperforming Loans
More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The biggest banks with nonperforming loans of at least 5 percent include Wisconsin’s Marshall & Ilsley Corp. and Georgia’s Synovus Financial Corp., according to Bloomberg data. Among those exceeding 10 percent, the biggest in the 50 U.S. states was Michigan’s Flagstar Bancorp. All said in second- quarter filings they’re “well-capitalized” by regulatory standards, which means they’re considered financially sound.
The FDIC insures deposits at 8,195 institutions with $13.3 trillion in assets. The agency is a state-bank regulator that insures bank customer deposits, helps find buyers for failing banks and liquidates lenders that have collapsed.
The agency this week approved new guidelines for private- equity firms that invest in failed banks to increase the pool of buyers beyond traditional lenders and reduce costs to the banking industry and taxpayers.
Overall, financial markets are returning to normal “in many important respects,” Bair said. “Combined with the positive economic news in recent weeks, we’re hopeful that this will lead to a moderation in credit problems in coming quarters.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Alison Vekshin in Washington at avekshin@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: August 27, 2009 12:33 EDT
2345 2345 2345 ... is that code? Hi Sherri!:-P
well didnt get it so, moved it to 152. feels like the train is fixing to leave.
sounds good. got a limit buy at 151.94, hope to fill before the hour.
well I milked another 20 out of it since the half hour mark.. once it soundly makes it past this down trend line, then we could give out one of those....
toooo dddddaaaaa mmmmoooooonnnnnn!
been tied up for a while, you still long on the beast.
So got my pocket change in my pocket... and in wait to see mode.
Oh, I agree... that is why Im in 'free ride mode' with my s/l out ahead of my entry... worst case I make some pocket change. Will have to watch and see it breaks this trend.
on a free ride short, target at 151.10 from 151.77
last stop before the 147s looks like right at 150. it is narrowing the down channel, so it could break either way really. The Beast will be the Beast. Once it breaks either way there should be some good change for us to pick up.