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On renewed concerns of Commons getting cancelled, Preferred Shares stage a significant rally.
Didn't Ackman say he supports the Average Joe Plan? I thought there was an interview recently where he said he now supports Moelis instead. Although, I might be mixing him up with all the Congressmen that support the Average Jokester Plan.
I think we'll see Ackman Rotate completely out of Commons and into Preferreds. Everyone is front-running his fund's liquidation, so Commons will take a huge hit from here.
Add in Berkowitz shorting Commons and his legal team actively targeting Common bag-holders, things could get even uglier from here.
Not a recco
It's as clear as day to most. You are clearly missing The Rotation. Look closer and you too shall see.
This is down-right dirty:
"Plaintiffs opt to only focus on Preferred Shareholders. All settlements will be handled by Plaintiffs and our intention is to zero-out Common Shareholders due to regular inaccurate statements being spread online about Mr. Berkowitz and other Class Plaintiffs. With that said, we ask Judge Lamberth to Cancel Common shares in both companies and move forward with liquidation preference for all Jr. Preferred Holders."
WOW! That really drives the point home.
Contracts matter:
"in light of the fact that the D.C. Circuit’s ripeness holding hinged on its recognition that “class plaintiffs’ claims for breach of contract with respect to liquidation preferences are better understood as claims for anticipatory breach.”
Deliciousness! Anticipatory breach = liquidation = Par Value for Preferreds. Weeeeeeeeeeeee
Speaking of Lamberth, we just got an updated court filing. This sounds very good for Preferred Holders:
"The D.C. Circuit’s holding that Plaintiffs’ claims are constitutionally and prudentially ripe is binding on this Court. Accordingly, the Court must decide Plaintiffs’ claims on the merits."
http://www.glenbradford.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/13-mc-01288-0078.pdf
Nobody knows for sure, so I wouldn't say that with such strong conviction. You see, the good thing about Preferreds is that we have a Contract that lays out the terms explicitly. Damages is surely a possibility since there is a clear Breach of Contract, which Lamberth will likely determine at some point early next year, possibly sooner.
Back-dividends can't be ruled out 100% either. The Contract states that if a dividend is given to anyone, that Preferreds shares also get their dividend. Remind me again who's been getting a dividend for the last ~6 years? Oh right, the "Sr. Preferred" which means the Jr. Preferreds should have also been given theirs. So, back-dividends isn't outside the realm of possibility since dividends were being paid, albeit to one class -- a class of shares that never existed before the Conservatorships.
As I started with, nobody knows for sure. But I can guarantee you the Jr. Preferred Shareholders will surely see something before the Commons see anything. Let's leave it at that.
Maybe because we knew about it a month ago? Funny Common folks are getting excited over what Pollock says, yet you don't acknowledge Pollock advocates for a Utility Model.
Crickets $$$ ...
Please see Fannie's financial filings:
Weighted-average common shares outstanding: 5,762,000,000
Seems as if they're already accounting for the Warrants being exercised.
Day Traders Paradise! $1.40 might be worth a buy, but looks like it wants to back-test $1.25, so I will probably wait to see what happens. Rumor is we'll see the Slow Bleed continue from here.
$4 Billion / 5,762,000,000 shares does not equal $1.50/share in cash. Please check your numbers. It comes out to $0.69 per share in Cash, but that doesn't include the Sr. or Jr. Preferred. Commons won't be seeing any of that any time soon.
I need a quick tally. Can anyone confirm how many Congressmen currently endorse the Average Joe Plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? I'm preparing a research paper that will be presented to my local congressional office. I want to show them how many of their colleagues are already behind The Plan for the GSEs so they realize how important it is for them to support it and also so they can schedule calls with those Congress members to discuss it in more detail.
We're still shooting for $1,000/share, right? Need to make sure I have all the facts before presenting. Thanks in advance. Teamwork!!
Can't believe we didn't figure this out sooner! It's incredible the similarities we have with Washington Mutual Holders. Common holders become owners of the new Shell LLC, while Preferreds get the Newco (Utility Model) and quarterly dividends.
It's ridiculous this was outlined in HERA and no one caught it sooner. Thanks so much for helping bring this to light.
Now we know Commons fate -- we become a new version of $WMIH. This is an exciting development for the holiday weekend!
This makes the most sense. Move the Commons (debt) into the LLC. They will own the Shell company, similar to what $WMIH did with Washington Mutual Common stock holders. I think this is what HERA was getting at with reference to the LLC. Now it's all coming together!
Commons get moved to a Shell, Sr. Preferred and Jr. Preferred become the owners of the Newco Utility. Newco will be a Utility Model paying quarterly dividends to said Preferred holders, but Newco will be heavily regulated. This would pay the Sr. Preferred holders a lot more than the Warrants would for Common shares, so Commons aren't aligned with the Government any longer. This actually means Jr. Preferreds are more closely aligned with the Government!
It's not as good as Moelis would be for Common holders (just look at how bad $WMIH is performing), it's worse than Benzinga also, but the Utility Model works just as good for us Preferred holders.
That's just the Treasury's shares. That doesn't include the forthcoming dilution that's inevitable. How else are they going to raise $10s of billions of dollars so they have enough capital to exit Conservatorship?
They'll need to sell even more shares (dilution) in order to do that!
Weighted-average common shares outstanding: 5,762,000,000
They show it on their balance sheet. So, the Warrants have basically been accounted for. Odds are the Government will exercise the Warrants, then sell them off in tranches to hedge funds.
20.01% of Fannie Mae is what we own, at least until they sell more Common shares.
The net positive is, we still own 20.01% of Freddie Mac. Do you have any calculations for how much we will own after the anticipated capital raises? I guess they could just sell Preferred shares, but then they have to re-instate Preferred dividends immediately.
My guess is, they just sell more Common shares further diluting existing shareholders. So our 20.01% likely becomes less than 15%. But, that should be okay in the long-run assuming G-Fees don't go back down too much.
The net positive is, we still own 20.01% of Fannie Mae. Do you have any calculations for how much we will own after the anticipated capital raises? I guess they could just sell Preferred shares, but then they have to re-instate Preferred dividends immediately.
My guess is, they just sell more Common shares further diluting existing shareholders. So our 20.01% likely becomes less than 15%. But, that should be okay in the long-run assuming G-Fees don't go back down too much.
Rally is fading fast. Should end the day around $1.35
Commons are getting Cancelled. Confirmed to be Worthless Junk
Counting down to the Draw? That won't be a good headline come Monday morning: "Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Require Billions More in Taxpayer Funds" ... Watch out for the Hedge Funds calling for Commons to be Cancelled on this news alone.
Us Preferred Holders want to get the Common Debt out of the picture. We're equity holders and need Commons out of the way so we can get our Dividends.
It's a Bird, It's a Plane ... nope, it's a Utility Model. And only Preferred Holders get a dividend. Commons get Cancelled.
I'm selling this rally. Berko is just giving us a breather today. Maybe someone filed a lawsuit? He probably wants to short from a higher price.
At least two of the three amigos are confirmed to have sold Commons and possibly Rotated into Preferreds (still awaiting confirmation they bought Preferreds).
Expect the Rotation from Commons to Preferreds to continue in a few days. This bounce won't last long.
Not a Recco
With each passing day, I take a deep breath of fresh air in relief knowing that my Preferred shares won't be diluted into oblivion or even Cancelled during the re-Capitalization.
Can't feel bad for Common holders any longer. The writing has been on the wall for years. Gotta raise money somehow, what better way than to sell more shares?
Down 50% in last 3 months. Now it takes a double just to get back to where we started the year. And anyone buying now will be up 100% while us bag-holders will just be back to break-even after a 100% run.
And all those traders buying now are gonna be selling at 100%, so we'll trade back down again. Unfortunately, bag-holding is getting harder now as the price drops further and further towards sub-$1. Soon, a triple will barely get us back to where we started the year, and then a triple might be the best we'll ever see.
Sad really, but Not a Recco
The Flippening is coming. FMCC soon to overtake FNMA. They're almost at parity now. Since Freddie will be getting free info from Fannie anyway, it's a no-brainer. Common Security benefits Freddie way more than Fannie. Then Freddie takes control.
Freddie is a better company in every way, shape, and form compared to Fannie. Watch all the #FannieGaters flock over to Freddie. It should've been #FreddieGate from the beginning, would've been more masculine.
Indeed, that's a BIG concern. We know the Rotation of Ackman from Commons to Preferreds (commonly referred to as "The Rotation") has begun. How far will he rotate is the question.
If he wants to be on the winning team -- his Fund desperately needs a win, even if it's just a double or triple -- then he will fully align with Berkowitz and the Preferred Holders.
We'll find out soon enough, but considering all of this volume lately it's hard not to speculate that Ackman is now going to Rotate completely out of Commons and into Preferreds. I would imagine he will also join Berkowitz and Short Commons once he's exited his Common trade.
"Some analysts believe that GSE common is, gulp, worthless"
Please report Paul and Brandon to the SEC for this false rumor spreading and penny stock manipulation. Maybe we should file a lawsuit against Inside Mortgage Finance.
This is highly unethical for journalists to be spreading these unsubstantiated claims!
Sue List:
1) Sue Berkowitz to stop the Shorting of Commons
2) Sue False Rumor Spreaders
3) Sue Inside Mortgage Finance for penny stock manipulation
4) Sue anyone that doesn't agree with and support the Average Joe Plan ($1,000/share Plan)
5) Sue all the Preferred Hedge Funds for trying to help us Average Joe's get back what's rightfully ours
6) Sue all Preferred Holders since they're big dummies for not knowing their shares are going to get cancelled
7) Sue Moelis for their garbage plan that doesn't give us $1,000/share
8) Sue the FHFA and Treasury -- this one is already on-going, but we need to get started on #1-7 ASAP
Newest GSE Rumors from Wall Street:
1) GSE Common Shares are going sub-$1 by the end of the first week of April
2) All court cases get dismissed by end of 2018
3) Preferreds get 50% of Par after Mnuchin decides to be generous to his Hedge Fund friends considering all court cases are now lost
4) Commons get Cancelled
5) Newco IPOs and us bagholders (with FNMA/FMCC trading on the Grey Market at .0001) keep posting here on ihub until they remove our ticker. Then we go complain on the Newco's page about how we were wronged by Trump and how they would never be able to raise money after stealing from us, but alas, they did raise the money.
And we all go on miserably living Camaro-less in our parent's basement.
End of Story
Rumor Has It ... Ooooooo. Last few rumors came to be true.
1) Ackman partially sold out of Commons and rotated into Preferreds -- Rumor was he completely sold out of Commons. We might find this out in his next quarterly report.
2) Price dropped to $1.25 -- Rumor was it's heading a lot lower. New rumor is it's heading to sub-$1.
3) Berkowitz shorting Commons -- Still speculation, but likely to be proven true due to the volume we're seeing.
Considering the track record, I'm surprised the SEC isn't looking into those rumor-spreaders as possibly conducting insider trading. It's a shame that people have this information before us Average Joe's!
Rumor Has It ... Ooooooo
Let's keep the conversation focused on Fannie Mae and/or the GSE's in general please. Too many off-topic posts. It's distracting to those of us that care about this investment.
Focus should be on:
1) Stopping Berkowitz from Shorting Commons to sub-$1 by end of next week.
2) Getting more Senators/Congressmen on-board The Average Joe Plan ($1000/share Plan)
3) Ending the NWS
4) Getting GSE's out of Conservatorship
5) Eliminating the Warrants
Then we can focus on:
1) Cancelling Preferreds
2) Getting a Camaro
New Lows in after-hours, $1.25 for 54,400 shares. It was definitely a Sell also, and not a Buy. Not good! Gap down to $1.15 tomorrow looking likely, then sell-off to sub-$1. Berko is making the dream come true for us Average Joe's.
Has anyone asked their Congressman if they support the Average Joe Plan lately? I think we need a few more Senators on-board to really gain traction.
No Camaro for me this year. Calling Mom & Dad to ask if I can move back in.
Gap Down under $1.25 tomorrow. That's when the real panic sets in. Way too much volume on a down day. Place your bids sub-$1 now to let the MMs know where you're willing to buy.
I don't think any Average Joe's will be buying a Camaro any time soon. Some of us might be needing to move back in with Mom & Dad at this rate.
For every buyer there's a seller and vice versa. It's a comical argument though, how does one buy/sell without the inverse occurring simultaneously?
If it occurred at the Bid/Ask is irrelevant. Once the Average Joe's come to this realization, they'll be better off in understanding watching the tape is useless. It's all about price action, nothing else matters.
Mostly just a Rotation out of Commons. Some are understanding the AIG precedent that was set on Monday. Others are just coming to the realization they don't want to wait out a Restructuring while in Commons when the obviously better decision is to be in Preferreds and switch to Common after the Restructuring.
Berkowitz is definitely a key factor as well. He convinced Ackman to sell Common for Preferreds and is likely going to get him out of Commons entirely and into Preferreds. The two of them will tag-team Short Commons into oblivion
The Rotation Continues! Average Joe's dreaming of $1000/share is now not even within the realm of possibility. Dreaming of $10 even seems like a ridiculous long-shot with the Benzinga Plan on the horizon.
The Berko short continues. Someone needs to file a lawsuit against Berkowitz to make him stop.
$8-13 sounds so good as we stare into the face of sub-$1. Moelis, wherefore art thou?
The market is realizing the AIG precedent now. If you read the article I shared yesterday, you would realize what I was referencing. This isn't from 5 years ago, it's from Monday, 3/26/2018.
Linking again so everyone grasps this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/greenberg-s-starr-rejected-by-u-s-supreme-court-on-aig-bailout
I know I won't be buying a Camaro by betting on Fannie/Freddie Common shares. I know the Warrants will be exercised. I know Moelis is the only plan that makes sense to be invested in Common stock, yet it gets trashed daily by the bad apples that brought Berko's shorting down on us. And I know we could end up with the Benzinga Plan which crushes Commons even more from these prices.
I know what I need to know to make the right investment decision - Preferred Shares. This is a Restructuring or a Receivership, invest accordingly.
The AIG case is precedent for Fannie & Freddie. It's unfortunate, but it is what it is. Brace for impact
AIG Precedent: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/greenberg-s-starr-rejected-by-u-s-supreme-court-on-aig-bailout
We all know where things are headed based on what's discussed in the Courtroom as well as what Mnuchin says. Courts say FHFA is untouchable, Mnuchin not saying much lately. That might be a tell.
You must have missed the AIG article yesterday (linked below). Even after a previous judge said what the government did was wrong in the AIG case -- yet the judge provided no damages to the Plaintiffs -- the Supreme Court rejected the case and said "what's done is done, sorry."
Expect a similar outcome here. Qs incoming for both tickers, Preferreds get 50-75% of Par and Commons get wiped out in Receivership.
Buy the Ticket, Take the Ride.
AIG Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-26/greenberg-s-starr-rejected-by-u-s-supreme-court-on-aig-bailout
They're both getting new tickers -- FNMAQ & FMCCQ
The Cancelling of Commons Cometh!
http://www.graydc.com/content/news/Lawmakers-consider-next-steps-following-Fannie-Mae-losses-478084513.html
Looks like our time has come. Commons are getting Cancelled based on this article