Be: If you don’t trust this move…My Qs target = 45.9: Now; getting out of Q calls.

Thank you RCKS for the info. Are they all real + buying or also spreads? I would buy May puts, and IF they and VIX go both up, I would sell Apr out of the money puts …- but only if pretty sure of the down trend of the index.

Right Gleno. They are misinformed with the help of the media. But they are not the ones who push the indices up. Big question: is this another suckers’ rally? I got out of the market yesterday and now I am looking for clarity. No luck, so far…

Yes Gleno, sell (short) signal also confirmed on 15 min NDX.

Foot, yes I know your line. Congrats!!! I used it to get out of longs. Don’t tell me it was too early…

Gleno…Your TA of AAPL is really nice. Hard to add much. I only can confirm that AAPL is at a critical point. Notice Vol. Rate of Change versus Money Flow.

Gleno…They have one more trick: to take up a bunch of biotex which are hot right now (but have been lazy today) + AAPL (to 150) and RIMM (close to 120). This will result in lifting the Qs one more notch.

Hi Gleno! Some serious buyers of Qs and SPY puts just coming in. Still keeping longs, but started to hedge “cautiously“ .

Hi Blasher: excellent point! Just looking at the Fourier stuff you posted last week. Is it true that the period of the summed movements is exactly one year?

Foot: Dan is right. This can work. It is the old principle of “arrows at battle’s end”. At the end of o battle, if you still have plenty of arrows, you dominate the field since you can herd your tired enemy as you wish, from a distance. Alexander figured this out at the age of 20, and changed the system of supplying arrows to his troops. What happened to the Mid-Eastern armies is history…The analogy with the reserves of oil supplies, in conditions of economic warfare, is obvious. John, as an Annapolis graduate might know this too.

Yes Beer,you are right, but they don’t have that much time left. According to some SEC regulations, they are not allowed to fix the indices on the 31st (Monday). However, in the present market conditions… nobody would enforce such rules. Moreover, if we face a big drop tomorrow, this could initiate a selling cascade, which they will have to stop. I don’t know what ‘should’ happen, but it is worth watching because of further implications. Says Denis Gartman: “In this market, even if flat, I am nervous!”

Foot, the reaction to ORCL’s earnings was overdone. Actually, in the present market conditions, they did OK. Remember that their top clients are the big international financials, which are in the toilet. I sold Q longs in time and I did not buy them back, but I watched the option markets between 4 and 4:15pm. There were a lot of Q calls buyers for various strikes. I think that the long play is still on for tomorrow. In contrast, if THEY will ignore the imperatives of TOM and TOQ, this will create a marasmic sentiment. In that case, one should be essentially bearish during the coming earnings season.

Vol. Rate of Chg. & Money Flow still ++ on indices. Sold Q calls, set order to buy them back on close if prices take some dive.

Entered another 1/3 long SPY (Apr 134 calls) and Qs (Apr 42 calls), at 2 pm ET.

Just entered 1/3 long: SPY (Apr 134 calls) and Qs (Apr 42 calls)

Hey E: hope you were able to discard the longs. I did it. Then sold shorts. Da boyz took care of me!! Indeed, what a country!! I am now out and will NOT go long again today. As you say, it’s too early for TOM.

Hey Blasher, This is VERY NICE WORK. Love it. Right now … I am so well hedged that I locked myself in. LOL.

Remembering Airedale. He was an authentic scholar of J. M. Hurst, whose work he was defending vehemently. An expert at drawing FLD-s, at combining them towards the difficult task of predicting cascades…Under the façade of rigidity he was an original thinker. I will miss him. God bless his soul.

Dan, my hindsight is always excellent. I “would have gotten” a buy signal for HD on 3/20, after 3pm EDT, when Vol. Rate of Chg., Money flow, and the two FRAMAs were all aggressively going up. Upon inspection of the recent past, it appears that this coincidence is neither a random, nor a too frequent event. If significant, it might have a rational basis. The last signal was probably the most obvious: 4/4. We shall see tomorrow.

Dan, yes - I checked them. Thank you again

Dan, thank you. Actually, I got out of shorts for two reasons:
1. The down trend initiated during the second part of the day was not met with enthusiasm.
2. The psychology of all those all who don’t trade today, from Hong Kong to Madrid: they are starving for a small but good old fashion American rally and they will lift the market ON.

I feel tempted to keep shorts ON. Anybody else?

E & Blasher: It seems that Qs are stronger (or faster moving?) today than SPY, and not only in term of reaching calculated targets. Thus The Qs filled and surpassed the 2/29/08 gap while SPY only took a small bite of it. Short term, this might be bearish for the general market

Blasher: Good call! Thank you. Here is the source of those numbers: 44.37 and 44.79. Where is your target now?

E, Be & Blasher. Ok , You won. I bought SPY puts and I got out around 44.7. Anybody buying QID?

Hi E: Sorry! I see your point. That was an earlier message to Foot, in which unfortunately I typed 42.37 instead of 44.37. The 50MA is the for SPX daily that Foot mentioned before. After the Qs went above rez = 44.37, reentered Q long at 44.44. I actually bought Apr42 calls (QQQ DP). Still long (with target = 44.79...squeezing the blood out of the stone) but Blasher worries me. Might start buying some SPY puts.

Obvious ERRATUM: Hi Be. Reentered Q LONG at 44.44. Target now = 44.79.....

Hi Be. Reentered Q short at 44.44. Target now = 44.79.

Hi Dan: I am totally with you. I call this realistic optimism. It can happen indeed. Only in America.

Hi Foot: 50 MA is now history. Interesting. On my charts, Qs rejected at Rez = 42.37. Got out of Q longs at 42.35. In contrast, SPY is between Sup and Rez (134.58 and 136.92). But the Pixy Dust Ind. turned neg. Still long on SPY. Set Tr. Stp.

Happy Easter everyone!

Be & Dan: I cannot leave because I want to see whether they will be able to close Qs = 43. As I wrote in the morning, this would be good for those who wrote Mar. puts and calls, strike 43. This is right now the highest sum of open interests.

Sorry Be, I was confused. You are the brave one, not Dan!

Dan: Your move seems inspired. MACD(3,10,16) turned neg. for Qs first and then for SPY. As I wrote I am out, but it’s great to watch.

Gleno: Out of longs at 42.76! You are right. Let’s not be greedy!

Gleno: UP! First target: 42.86

Yes Two: What you say makes perfectly sense to me. And here is the ‘caveat’: Let’s assume that I have a vary large amount of money but I am also a rapacious chap and I know the mentality of Fox, Two and a lot of other perspicacious guys like them. I will do what I can do very well: spend some bucks to create ‘contrarian moves’ and take their money. Even if I make only a small amount of cash, I achieve two aims: 1). monetary success to my predatory practice, and more importantly, 2). I will undermine their self-confidence. Thus they will stop being independent “retailers” and will give me their money to invest. By the way, only seconds ago da boyz UPGRADED POTASH, q. e. d. Check the chart of POT……you see what I mean?

Hi Dan: I bet you sold at 11:30 EDT: indices exp. time, if I am right. So did I. Now I am looking for a new entry point.

Hi Foot: I am told that the max pain levels are SPY = 131, Qs = 45. Obviously the Qs level is nonsense, probably calculated in function of many leftover positions. But if one looks at the present levels of “open interest”, one might conclude that it is advantageous for those who wrote the March options to have them expire close to Qs = 43. However the SPY should be kept close to 131. Can THEY do that?
I think today, besides TA, we have to at least discuss such assumptions.

Gleno: Yes, but not all media… Here are some excerpts from a WSJ’s:


Obama and His 'White Grandmother'
By JAMES TARANTO
March 18, 2008

…“Our first thought was that it was pretty low of Obama to exploit his (still living) grandmother in this way. Is it really necessary for the whole world to know about her private expressions of prejudice? Doesn't simple decency dictate that a public figure treat embarrassing facts about loved ones with discretion?
Obama was trying to accomplish something very specific by dragging his "white grandmother" into this political mess. He was trying to diminish Wright's hateful theology by implying that it too is a private matter“…“Note how Obama elides the difference between a comment at the "kitchen table" and a sermon delivered to a congregation of thousands and recorded on DVD“…
“What Obama is evading is that this "profoundly distorted view" is not just some passing emotion. It is what Wright himself, in the "talking points" page of his congregation's Web site, describes as "systematized black liberation theology." As we noted yesterday, Wright credits James Cone of New York's Union Theological Seminary with having undertaken this systematization. Here again is Cone's description of black liberation theology:
Black theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people, then he is a murderer, and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community. . . . Black theology will accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in Black Power, which is the power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at their disposal. Unless God is participating in this holy activity, we must reject his love.
So here we have, on the one hand, an old white woman who would be completely ordinary and anonymous but for her grandson's astonishing political success, and who harbors some regrettable prejudices; and, on the other, a leader in the black community who uses his pulpit to propagate an ideology of hate.”