Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
SPY entry points using correlation of cci/trin and cci/spy.
This has done well in the research phase. We now have a new uptrend, and hopefully the results will be good. However, if the trend fails then the trades will also fail to please.
Oddlot
SPY objectives
At CS I wrote several detailed pieces re why my objective for SPY was 139-142, based on a cluster of swing and cyclical targets, and for brevity had settled on SPY 140 which was repeatedly mentioned. We are now there, and my response is to weight longs lightly and shorts heavier.
Oddlot
SPY SDS OBV system long with new highs on SPY, obv above the 5min BB(128,1). Out of SDS at 15.78 and now flat. Still holding SMN, ESIC, CORN.
Oddlot
OBV note
The most recent rally came very near the prior high, but OBV short term fell considerably short of the prior OBV high. This shows selling on the rally, and presages a decline IMHO.
Holding base plus 2 trading units of SDS, plus a boatload of SMN -2x basic matl etf plus CORN and ESIC.
Oddlot
Long CORN 40.20 with stop 36.97
rotor, thanks. While they differ slightly, they agree that generally it is ok to be long until harvest starts.
Oddlot
techcharter,
So, if I want to long it should be in gold, and shorts should be in equities. Holding lots of SDS and SMN. The SMN is short basic materials, which correlates to gold, so that may be the wrong side. But my call is for significant low in early April, at which time the long gold would seem to be appropriate. Thanks for the help.
By the way, look at CORN. Lots if discussion lately on BT's board.
Oddlot
Corn dollar. Valid point. Dollar seems to be in LT uptrend which means corn needs a supply problem. However, it is not yet in the ground, and the weather is crazier than ever.
Oddlot
Kiy: thanks. Planning to own some even though Tuesday may be dicey.
Oddlot
Kbuilder:.my cpa often files my last-minute efforts via Efile. Have not used it personally.
Oddlot
BT: I dont do forks. Instead I use centered moving averages which sre by definition in the center of the channel which contains the cycle for which the MA length was chosen. The short method is to use trendlines parallel to the CMA, or MA, and push them against the price action. Standard lengths are 11/21/33/65/130/195/390. If the MA is moving in a straight line, the TL is valid.
Oddlot
BT: glad to see someone else is seeing a possible move here. Sometimes I see shadows...
Oddlot
Re CORN buy: there is a crop report Monday afternoon, and presumably volatility on Tues. Price could go either way, but current price has come down to reasonable support: 0.618 fib retracement level is 39.75; will still buy but not chasing without TL break.
Oddlot
BT re EWave diagonal.
I know very little re EW and have seen repeated comments re the diagonal, a wave 5 about to start, etc. Can you, or anyone, tell me what is supposed to happen.....even though the main value is understanding the "crowd".
Oddlot
CORN buy 40.25 with stop 37. LT hold until mid summer.
Rotor: thanks, I will read it. Key stat is ratio of large specs who are presumed to be "smart money". At 4 to 1, those with resources think it is a wise move to own some corn, and chartwise I can see that they have provided a floor.
Oddlot
BT thanks re COT. Exactly what I wanted.
Oddlot
QQQInvestment re CFTC/corn
Where is the cftc data and historical comparative on the web? The corn net longs: are they large specs, or plus commercials, or all?
The chart for CORN is interesting. It has based above support (38-41) and the LT down channel is very near recent weekly highs. If weather again "kills the crop 6 times before harvest", a breakout could signal the start of a new LT uptrend; and this is before plantings, so the actual problems are not yet known and can be only generalized re worries and price.
Do you have a perspective on this?
Oddlot
SPY finally broke the intraday trendline, and the CCI for 10 day cycle gave sell signal. SPY at 137.50 area.
Odd
SDS added another trading unit at 16.03, spy/fxe is above the 20 day bollinger 2 dev, and fxe looks like a new downtrend.
Oddlot
techchsrter: since I dont do Ewaves, please translate for a lay person. Has the bottom occurred, or is it yet to occur and then your wave 5 starts? Is not the wave 5 supposed to be the biggest, and final?
Thanks for helping.
Oddlot
Bliss: I also see support in the gold/spx ratio at 1.18-1.20, which would suggest that gold is too low or spx is too high. Personally, favor view that spx is too high and gold is not low enough.
From a cyclic viewpoint, gold has IMHO a weekly set: 16.5/33/65/130 and variants of this. The 16.5/33 weeks resulted from a 10 year spot study, and I have seen 22 months mentioned elsewhere that seems present in charts and would be a multilple of the base wavelength. A top for the 130 week is in, and the next low is later this year, maybe August. The last low of major significance was 1309, but the 1530 matches some cyclic objectives. If SPX were to drop to 130, and the 1.20x holds, the 1500 gold would be right in line.
alexed: re trin/spy cci correlations.
Now the leap of faith. Is the trend now down, as I presume? If so, will history (and the accountant) see the correlated areas of low trin/high spy as excellent short entries??
Time will tell.
Oddlot
alexed re trin
Try this: apply the same benchmark to trin as to SPY. I use cci for a 5 day cycle (5min CCI(128)). Assuming the large trades that make trin deviate from the average ALSO cause price to deviate from "normal", a CCI buy from trin should presage a valid CCI sell from price as the price returns/relaxes back toward "normal". Such a setup in a trend should define excellent entries for a trendfollower.
Oddlot
"10 week" phasing: the DPO(11) on stockcharts plots the extreme weekly price minus the centered 11 week MA, and this is useful for visual IDu of cycle extremes. Since the low in mid 2009 I count 10 lows in 27 months, or an average just under 12 weeks. This is week# 5 for an expected low weeks of April 16 or 23. Another way to count is from high to low an idealized cycle will fall for 5-6 weeks, and this is week #1 for a low due late March, or early April; this actually has been my long standing comment. Combined with other cycles due now, the fall could be more rapid and further than generally expected. IMHO, the best approach will be trendfollowing, and my preferred method is to draw TLs parallel to an SMA of length equal to 1/4 of the cycle length. At this point a cycle of 50-65 days, and 1/4 wave TLs representing 13-17 day slopes would be pointing higher, stops over the high would represent reversal or stand-aside points; 3-4 weeks from now, those MAs would generate nice and statistically valid action signals.
Last comment: a classic trading rule is enter a trendline violation after the first retracement day on the close, or the next day soon after the opening. That would have been todays close, or tomorrow early in the day.
Holding SDS from 16.20 and today at 16.43.
Good luck/good trades.
Oddlot
**Your friendly Assistant Moderator is present regularly to help**
Oddlot
SPY 5day sell signal is DONE!
SPY 5day cycle setup is complete and ready for sell signal from intraday CCI geared to 5day cycle: 10minCCI64 or 5min CCI128.
Holding SDS base unit ftom 16.20 and tradiing unit from 16.44.
Oddlot
SPY 5 day cycle setup is complete, ready for sell signal to come from intraday cci geared to 5day cycle: 10minCCI64, or 5minCCI128.
Holding SDS base + trading unit.
Oddlot
SPY SDS added more SDS at 16.43. Short term CCI for trin was ovrsold and came back above -100. Short term CCI for SPY is slightly overbought and price is near some resistance. Acted early, as normal would be to wait for CCI price signal, but good enuf as is.
Oddlot
Marishipu: all of the elements are there. Note that the signal from the price channel occurred at the same time as the BB 1 deviation channel violation, so they are equivalent. The other criteria is the 5day cyclic extremes using the CMAs to ID. The chart is somewhat cluttered and for your personal use you may want to separate the two methods on different charts for ease of viewing.
OBV systems both short. The revised system has a requirement for a penetration of the prior 5day cyclic low (135.50) before shorting. This.obviously occurred today, so for the record both methods are short (holding SDS).
Oddlot
Rivers re gold: look at ratio gold/spx. Value of 1.18-1.20 would look attractive. SPX at 1300 would be 1534 for gold, so watch the ratio.
Rivers re metals: no strong opinions, and recent trades have been wrong. GLD channel just under 150, and may try some at 150.
Oddlot