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What does it say in the bubble, which leads to the ERHE bubble (no pun intended)? After that the arrow goes to the 1 capital investment and 2 Portfolio exchange. And what's the word (actually two loose words) beneath the point of the arrow?
And there is a square underneath them two words, with on the left the number 2, so does the box refer to the "portfolio exchange" ?
Don't underestimate them photomodels. :)
They just hired a photo model for that picture, and let her do some scribbling after reading a few I hub posts.
What is the fuzz about? Hahaha.
Sfreed on 3D seismic
Re: 3D seismic
Unfortunately 3D takes very sophisticated computers and software to
interpret that I don't have (neither do big oil companies, which is
why they use companies like Schlumberger, etc). The software is
constantly updated to pinpoint potential closures and differentiate
between oil, gas, water, etc. You can reprocess the same data many
times as the software gets better to get more accurate results.
If you look at Equator's reserve report released in January of 2007,
Netherland, Sewell reported that there was total gross unrisked
recoverable reserves in Block 2 of 1.35 billion barrels of oil.
In January of this year, Addax reported reserves for all their
blocks, also prepared by Netherland Sewell. They didn't break out
block by block, but I calculated Block 2 as having 2P unrisked
reserves of 1.87 billion barrels and 2P risked reserves of 800
million barrels of oil. I would expect that much of the increase
could be attributed to refinements in the software used to process
the existing data. We know that Addax would not have shot its own
data, they purchased it and had it processed for their purposes. We
could do the same but have been probably held back by the lawyers.
The colors are lovely for presentations and websites, but don't
really mean much.
he looks tired? He looks nervous!
Maybe he was held at gunpoint.
Regarding colorful picture one on the website:
What you are seeing are elevations. The gray line that slices through the image represents the sand on the ocean floor and the colors represent the elevations of the rock and sediment beneath the sand. These are depositional features much like a mountain range that can be created a number of different ways. One way these features can be created is by gas trapped beneath the rock and sediment pushing upward. This is why the drilling locations tend to focus on the elevated areas.
Courtesy: Dan "the Man" Keeney.
Note: I wonder which ot the pictures contributed the most to coming up with the 78% chance of hitting oil figure.
I think it is very likely that erhe's potential will somewhat be topped of because of bigger fish scooping up smaller fish.
But this could be an exception, because of the free carry, which gives ERHE a longer breath. There is no hurry for ERHE, they can just sit it out.
IMV,
If ERHC stays independent, and becomes an oil company itself, the free carries will be over in future deals around the world. So, the bottom line will be less impressive.
Normally the smaller fish always get scooped up by the bigger ones, sooner or later. But I'm sure ADDAX is not going to take a risk with these investigations. So, in my view, ERHC is at it's most attractive next year. I think Offor, like J.C. Gandur, will cash at the top.
We will get $1,50 and the further growth potential of ADDAX, AND after that again a premium when ADDAX is scooped up by big oil.
That is the scenario I think will happen, in a nutshell.
Let me elaborate on that.
If ERHC stays independent, and becomes a oil company itself, the free carries will be over, in future deals around the world. So, the bottom line will be less impressive.
So, in my view, ERHC is at it's most attractive next year. I think Offor, like J.C. Gandur, will cash at the top.
We will get $1,50 and the further growth potential of ADDAX, AND after that again a premium when ADDAX is scooped up by big oil.
That is the scenario I think will happen, in a nutshell.
Like Sportingbet scooping up World Gaming.
At least that was the intention, if it wasn't for Bill Frist.
Normally indeed the smaller fish get scooped up by the bigger ones. But I'm sure ADDAX is not going to take a risk with the investigations.
And. . .there must be a hefty premium, because of the free carry. My take: between $1,- and $1,50 if all goes well with the investigations.
"Joe AKA Julius". Haha. Your paranoid.
Just ask TAM TAM, he will bet all his has on the fact that I'm Dutch.
Some really lose it, there must be a lot at stake for them.
I hope it works out for all of us.
Yes,
Dear Julius,
Sylvan did do the interview with Punch, but as I’ve told some of the others who have contacted us about it, there was a language barrier that contributed to some comments being misinterpreted and resulted in some problems with accuracy. The drillship remains in dry dock and a more likely scenario is that it completes its retooling in the second quarter. The “exploration” that’s referred to is not really exploration, but analysis and engineering.
On balance, it gives a good overview of ERHC’s enthusiasm, but the reported facts should be taken with a grain of salt due to the language barrier.
Dan Keeney, APR
DPK Public Relations
dan@keeneypr.com
I sent him the link a minute ago.
:p
That means imo. . .
after the investigations are resolved, and then close before drilling they make more statements about where the best drilling locations are, and what the prospects look like, based on their best 3D data.
"im still very excited about this investment - just pointing out probably how alot of folks on the sidelines are thinking and why i think investigations would be a momentous event for this co."
You don't have to apologize for being realistic.
The moderators should always allow realistic posts.
"Thanks for your post, Bigfish .... in real-life the weak hands get taken out by the strong and confident."
I like that statement, Fishdog. :)
chcr?
He could have bought at an substantial discount just a few weeks ago.
Not saying that he is right, but it is a thought on everybody's mind: can we be $#%^&* ?
So Joe. . .why don't you elaborate on what you said.
How do you think they CAN *&^%$# us?
That would be interesting reading your blog.
What would Addax Buy From ERHC? A Sad Scenario
The news that Addax, our operating partner in several blocks of the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone (JDZ) has squirre;ed away $1.5 billion for acquisitions has stirred anticipation that a $2 per share offer may be forthcoming from the Swiss drillers whose fortunes, for better or worse, have been allied with ours for more than a year.
That amount - $2 per share x 722,239,000 shares outstanding, conveniently adds up to $1,444,478,000, and leaves $55 million on the table for legal bills, accounting and ERHC debts.
And it seems a reasonable amount for a stock that is currently selling at $0.22, or $158,889,580 of market cap (although the last sale of 1,000 shares at $0.235 x $0.22 was a valiant effort to shore up prices that had fallen all day).
But as usual, I see things a little differently. My guess is that the reason we have no employees to speak of, even a permanent CEO, is that the company is meant to be sold and easily transferable to the buyer.
A buyer won't have a lot of pensions, salaries and severance obligations with a three-person staff, one of whom is part-time. Of course, the company doesn't have any physical operations, either - just signatures of the Joint Ministerial Council on a sheaf of paperwork granting us rights to billions of barrels of oil 10,000 feet under the sea. You could carry the whole company on a CD in a briefcase, because at the end of the day, that's all there is.
But the company is the end-product of the vision of just one man, Sir Emeka Offor, who is no longer controlling the company directly and is no longer on its board. He has transferred 303,000,000 of his shares, or 42% of our outstanding stock, to Chrome Energy LLC, a Cayman Islands bank account which, like the company, amounts to no more than a sheaf of stock and incorporation certificates in a safe deposit box.
If I were Sir Emeka Offor, though, being the one who has been pilloried, sued, accused, smeared, shamed, scarred, castigated, condemned and cheated - and congratulated, at least once - ad infinitum for the past 5 years, I might have other ideas for that $1.5 billion.
I might say to myself, well, let Addax pay me an approximation of what my shares are worth - $5 a share for the entire Chrome Energy LLC holding - and let the shareholders hope it floats their boat, too.
And to some degree it would. While Offor's shares would not give Addax control of the company, it's been able to pick up 50,000 or so a day at $0.20 - $$0.25 a share for some time now without tipping the SEC threshold for an 8-K report. At that rate, it would need 144 trading days (28 weeks) for each 7.22 million shares, or each 1% of the company. A separate deal for 3% or so with the First Atlantic Bank of Nigeria, which holds another 8%, is probably doable, and would yield for majority control.
Now, let's see:
$1.5 billion for 303,000,000 shares amounts to $4.95 a share; maybe, as a sweetener, Offor would keep 3 million (or 1%) to make it a nice round $5 per share. The shareholders will have gotten their $0.20 - $0.25 per share when they sold in the past year. And Addax would be the majority owner of a company that will probably be worth about $14 a share two years from now. Sounds good to me!
Who would deal with the SEC indictments, if they ever come? Well, to the best of my knowledge, it would be the shareholders of ERHC Energy, not Addax or Sir Emeka Offor. If they ever come.
That's why you should sell your shares today. The sooner Addax gets all they need, the sooner you will get screwed. Of course, if you wanted to make them wait closer to drilling, they might sweeten the pot a few cents, but they don't really need you. They need Offor's shares, some of the bank's shares, and the shares you've already sold them.
Congratulations - they're rich!
Joe Blog
That's the World Gaming - Sportingbet way to do it.
Unfortunately Bill Frist messed up that party.
Hopefully the government doesn't interfere this time.
I think Sfreed means to say that because ERHE has an % in ADDAX's block, ADDAX "return on investment" is lower, like the littly monkey riding along on the back of the bigger one. It costs the mama monkey more effort. Carried for free.
Enjoy. . .
these minutes. haha.
Investigations are the millstone around our neck.
Where is Mark "JDZ source" Govols?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=10551548
Didn't somebody else ask this some time ago? is he still invested?
Tryoty, everthing ok?
Anybody anything about the 'formula' ?
Has this been discussed years ago, and what was the outcome in a nutshell?
TIA.
Tryoty, that formula is (still) on the JDZ website.
It is applicable to the JDZ.
And the JDZ only. I remember that formula from way back.
I think we should get to the bottom of this.
That contact-webform doesn't seem to work on the ERHC site (on my computer at least).
Do you perhabs have an email address of one of those guys at the Houston head-quarters? : )
It's the quickest way to find out what the deal is with this formula and if it is interpreted correctly by Krombacher, as a profit-limiting formula. I can hardly imagine that: Offor limiting his future profits potential, when sitting at the negotiating table. LOL.
According to Krombacher it won't.
Profits would be limited for ERHE in his view, thanks to the formula on the JDZ website.
Dear Oilphant,
Remember your january quote "EHRE will not be ERHE anymore"
How do you feel right now?
TIA.
TAMTAM, thanks for your private mail.
Indeed, why didn't XOM sell their 40% to other Big Oil CVX?
I fully agree,
but, on the other hand, if nothing worthwhile was there, others would not have picked it up. A smaller company normally can take even less risk.
So. . . the answer must be that there is something there probably that is more interesting for a smaller fish than for a big fish.
I can't conclude anything else from this sale.
I never understood the 'sealed' part.
Why is it still sealed?
Don't forget the 78% number. At this price you almost can't go wrong (except for those investigations by Big Bully USA).
I think that is the $64K question.
And why is this share price so low. Those things don't add up.
But nevertheless, it was a fantastic post by 'old man'.
He deserves a better name:
http://www.pg.hu/images/_si/OSround.jpg
?
The oil prospectivity of Blocks 2, 3 and 4, but not Block 1, as announced by Addax Petroleum on May 22, 2007, was previously assessed by the Corporation’s independent reservoir engineers, Netherland, Sewell and Associates (“NSAI”). NSAI reviewed 18 prospects on Blocks 2, 3 and 4 and estimated unrisked and risked prospective oil resources respectively to be 286 MMbbl and 225 MMbbl attributable to Addax Petroleum’s working interest as at December 31, 2006.
http://www.addaxpetroleum.com/press_room/73
Obo 1 sub-commercial , 50 to 100 MMborange
•Revisit11 Billion boforecasts!
•Chevron and ExxonMobil seekto dilutestake
•Block 2, 3 drillingin 2008-2009
http://tinyurl.com/2uzzat
BIG difference, even when the first is only ADDAX share, but the best blocks.
It's actually 2 companies.
Royal Dutch Shell made 18.5 billion EURO'S.
That's about 27 billion dollars.
Wauw, them Dutch people, right tamtam?
It's pretty common in fact:
http://www.elephantghost.com/
Groundhog day?
Them colors on the 3D picture mean:
TWT-SS microseconds.
Aha...
Has to with resistance probably.
What is them colors in that 3D picture on page 24?
anybody? I don't see a legend.
Purple = oil? lol.
Tamtam,
Just go to the library or bookshop and check out the latest edition of Beleggers Belangen.
I don't have a copy online.
The biggest Dutch investor magazine said that Brazil is going to help out Sao Tome with their deep sea drilling.
Elaborate... please.
You mean, it is only profitable for them if they are operator?
with 1 Billion B I doubt that.
It is and stays odd, them leaving. Maybe it is half a Billion, but even then. . . A realistic explanation hasn't been posted yet imo.
"Barrel of oil equivalent (boe) - A term frequently used to measure oil and gas on a comparative basis. In Canada, 10 mcf of natural gas is equivalent to one barrel of oil. "