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Better trust a guy called "Commons_Cancelled",that says "MOELIS".
Too many people know about The LETTER at this point. We all deserve to read it and validate its authenticity.
We should probably file a lawsuit to have its contents revealed to everyone
When is the merger happening?
I think if Fannie's price catches up to Freddie's, it's definitely a sign the GSEs are going to merge soon
Did we up-list this weekend? Yahoo Financials updated FNMA's information
FNMA @ $3 = a Camaro for me
I can't wait to cash in my Commons to buy my dream car. Does anyone think we'll see $3 again this year?
Carlos seems like he's an FHFA mole. I don't trust that guy.
#Fanniegate is the most corrupt deep state operation in history, yet very few people will ever know the truth.
MOELIS is the only story Average Joe's will remember.
Based on this, do you assume a Merger between Fannie & Freddie?
Usually the price goes up when there's more buyers. I'm confused though, how can anyone buy anything without someone also selling something at the same time?
Can't argue with Math. Although I'm sure at least a few Average Joe's will try to debate you on this.
Preferred conversion to Commons at Par Value makes the most sense and would be the most simplistic route to go.
#MOELIS
It's in a safe along with the SEC letter stating the Warrants are illegal. Only a few people have seen either letter. It's being kept secret until the right time -- probably around the time The Mnuchin Dilution Solution wreaks havoc on the Average Joe's.
Moelis and Preferred Conversion to Commons at Par value makes the most sense. I agree.
Now that we have the CSP, Freddie should do well in the long term.
#UtilityModel
Nope, the FHFA can make that determination since they inherited all rights of the companies -- Watt, or more likely his replacement, will make that call. Not the GSE's and not their Common stock holding Average Joe's.
Moelis and Preferred Conversion to Commons at Par value makes the most sense. I agree.
#UtilityModel
CSP means you should Short FNMA even more. This news is no bueno for Fannie and mucho bueno for Freddie.
This means Freddie is taking a huge chunk of business away from Fannie. We probably break below $1.50 today on this bad news
Now it makes sense why Berkowitz kept calling to short Fannie Commons. He never advocated to short Freddie, but he must've known the CSP was going to continue and it will hurt Fannie's potential EPS, along with the Preferred Conversion and the Warrants. All that dilution = bad EPS for Fannie especially.
Why would they get redeemed for Cash when the GSEs have no capital? Are they just going to raise a bunch of money and buy back Preferreds with those proceeds?
Your imaginary fund for the Sweep payments is non-existent. They have no capital. Preferreds will get converted to Commons at Par and the dilution from Warrants will also affect future EPS.
Giddy up
When does the Preferred Conversion at Par begin? There's a massive arbitrage opportunity right now by buying Preferreds before the conversion occurs. No reason to buy Commons when you get more bang for your buck buying Preferreds which will get converted into Commons later anyway.
Did Corker endorse the Average Joe Plan too? I must've missed that one. Shoot, I better load up on Jr. Equity before it goes to $1,000 a share now that ol' Bob Corker is on-board with the AJP
What's $34B in Preferred dilution do to EPS for the Jr. Equity Common shares? It's going to be pretty significant, but that's only Wave 1. Wave 2 is the Warrants, and that's gonna be a doozy! Bye bye pie in the sky EPS estimates.
After all that dilution, a P/E of 20 would likely only yield a price per share of $8, and that's on the high end. Don't get me started on the low end. That $4.50 share price we saw last year might look like heaven after the reckoning destroys any potential EPS for Commons. And don't forget about the CSP!
Utility Model here we come!! MOELIS, MOELIS, MOELIS!
Wiped out via Conversion at Par to Commons. Zing!!
In all seriousness, this was about as clear as day. If you've been in Jr Equity (Commons) this whole time, you're about to have a rude awakening. Hence, the awful performance of Jr. Equity versus Sr. Equity (Preferreds) over the last 6 months. The writing has been on the wall if anyone took the time to read it.
The Mnuchin Dilution Solution (Moelis) is incoming!
5. For what logical reason is owning p shares a good idea?
Rise & Shine! Fresh cup of Moelis recap on this beautiful day. Thank goodness we have Berkowitz continuing his fight against the FHFA/Treasury. Where would we be without these Preferred lawsuits?
Anyway, it will be fun when Preferreds get converted into Commons, then we'll all be on the same team. Getting converted at Par and after the Warrant dilution and Capital Raises will be like converting 30% higher than Par since we won't have to deal with all that nasty dilution.
Rejoice, Moelis!!
The CSP makes $FMCC way more attractive than $FNMA. With the US Treasury and FHFA openly endorsing the Common Securitization Platform as the future of MBS, Freddie Mac is going to benefit bigly.
I hope all of the Average Joe's have been loading up on Freddie Mac all these years and are sitting on long-term capital gains. The big money will be flowing to Freddie while Fannie's EPS withers away.
Although, there's still plenty of time to swap Fannie for Freddie since nothing meaningful will happen until this time next year. Common shares of both GSEs will likely still be trading around $2, no rush.
Jeff, I think you're confusing Equity and Debt. Please see below where on their financial disclosures, both Fannie and Freddie report Preferreds as Equity.
No Cash on their balance sheet either, as many have been stating for weeks. It's mostly atrocious.
There you have it. Jr. Preferred are Sr. Equity and Commons are Jr. Equity which will have to face the full force of dilution in the coming months.
Probably have to wait until after they up-list before the Merger can take place. Has anyone been able to confirm if there's going to be an IPO for the Common Securitization Platform (CSP)? There was a tweet the FHFA sent out saying an initial public offering was forthcoming, but then they deleted it. I assume it's nothing for us Average Joe's to be concerned about
Still down 50% since Christmas. We only need a double to get back to where we ended 2017. That should be easy, right?
How does a Moelis type of recap affect potential EPS? If we assume Warrants are exercised (all but certain) and there are additional capital raises (almost certain), then we can assume EPS will be in the $0.50-.75 range for the first few years after release. So I think FMCC could see $8-10 within the first 3 years of the end of the Conservatorship.
Not a bad risk/reward from these prices. But far from the $100+ a share many are calling for.
Not good news guys. I just got a letter from the SEC stating the Warrants are in fact legal to exercise. I will be sharing the details after market close on Friday. I have only shared it with a few select individuals thus far.
Can an Admin please sticky kthomp19's post? This is very relevant information and all Jr. Equity (Common) shareholders should be aware of this potential dilution before they make an investment in the GSEs.
Average Joe's selling the 50-day Moving Average. The dilution factor of 240 is really starting to make sense. Jr. Equity shares (Commons) are likely to trade in a 20% channel for the next few months until more clarity is provided by the Administration. Both down-side and up-side are capped at this time.
Excellent analysis. Maybe the market figured this out and drove Commons down to prices that align more closely with a fully diluted EPS (including Warrants and Capital Raises).
At least the downside for Commons is fairly minimal at these prices. But there could still be some "Shock" selling from Average Joe's that didn't see it coming.
You can find a list here - http://gselinks.com/Archive/Court_Filings.html -- Follow the money.
Don't get stuck in Commons when the Mnuchin Dilution Solution gets implemented. Junior Equity is going to lose most of their EPS to dilution. Commons will be lucky to see $10 with a 20x PE, and that won't happen for 5+ years, if ever.
A lot of Average Jokesters are gonna be filing lawsuits after Moelis. And then Preferreds will be laughing the whole time at all those insurmountable losses.
This sounds genius! It's probably best if you keep your letter from the SEC in a safe place until Moelis is implemented and the Warrants are exercised. Then you can file a lawsuit like everyone else, since lawsuits have worked so well, LMAO!
Commons down 50% in same time frame that Preferreds are up over 12%. That's gotta hurt!! But definitely save your fake letter until after they exercise the Warrants.
Are you suggesting that Commons will get cancelled? It doesn't seem very likely at this time; however, with the CSP now being endorsed by the US Treasury, crazier things could certainly happen.
I just know Commons won't see one penny of profit until the Preferreds are dealt with
Only one Average Joe has the letter from the SEC stating the Warrants are illegal. He has supposedly only shown it to a few elite Average Joe's and they are plotting their next pump so they can Rotate into Sr. Equity (Preferreds).
So in other words, the letter doesn't exist or it would've already been sent out to everyone on Twitter the same way the Average Jokesters did with all of the Congressional Endorsements their plan supposedly received.
This must imply the GSEs are merging. Or are they up-listing again since they down-listed before the open today after up-listing over the weekend?
The market is waking up to how devastating the CSP will be for FNMA and how positive it will be for FMCC. I would expect the parity to disappear quickly and for Freddie to become the front-runner over the next few months. It's FNMA's turn to be the laggard
So Fannie's entire OS traded 4x today? And Freddie's entire OS traded over 3x today? Better check your numbers, i'm including the proper outstanding share counts below:
FNMA OS = 1,158,087,567
FMCC OS = 650,058,775
**NOTE: These numbers do not include the exercising of the Warrants, which you should definitely factor in since they will be exercised.
With the US Treasury endorsing the Commons Securitization Platform today, Freddie is obviously the better GSE stock to be in. This is likely why we've seen Freddie get to parity with Fannie (Common stock at least). If you're big into Fannie you better move a good chunk of that into Freddie or you'll be kicking yourself later.
I see Freddie Commons at $6+ by the end of 2019, whereas Fannie Commons would be lucky to be trading at $5.
Freddie is going to win bigly with the CSP!
Smart Money (Sr. Equity, aka Preferreds) are up 13% in the last 6 months, while Retail (Jr. Equity, aka Commons, aka Dumb Money) is down almost 50% in the last 6 months.
I think I know how this ends. Sr. Equity gets paid and uses that money to buy Common shares after the Mnuchin Dilution Solution (aka Moelis).