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SDS closed position
Long gold via DGP at 53.90 with stop 49.97.
Oddlot
GLD DGP long gold via DGP at 53.90 with stop 49.97.
Oddlot
Mossy: a tip.from experience. The only true daily trendline is thru extreme closes. Once available, the line become the point for heavy orders on the assumtion that.the line will hold and price will not close beyond it. Similarly, gap openings that never look back usually gapping beyond the trendline. There are valid trendlines intraday that have nothing to do with closing prices, but for dailies they are very important.
Oddlot
SPY SDS biught SDS 15.05
The 5min OBV systems are showing neg OBV trends, but holding above the last 5day cyclic low, so stuck in flatland.
The cci for trin (5day and 10day cycles) are oversold, meaning price should be overbought and a sell signal from price cci should be reasonable to follow.
Bought SDS 15.05.
AGCO stopped out 46.43
SSO both 5min OBV indicators are negative, so I bailed on SSO.
Trin cci for 10 day cycle remains overbought, and cci for price is about.-90 and falling, having not.gone oversold yet. Still watching.
Oddlot
Trin cci for 10 day cycle remains overbought, and cci for price is about.-90 and falling, having not.gone oversold yet. Still watching.
Oddlot
SPY SSO the OBV trend defined by violation the bollinger 1 dev band is negative, but the other 5min and the 1min are still positive. The cyclic trend followind sys is still positive, so the stance is to hold longs amd watch to add more.
The cci for trin has come put of oversold (5day cyclic parameters), so the signal would come from 5min CCI (128) which is below -100 at this time, but would signal buys whem crossing that level. Holding SSO with loss, CORN with loss, SMN AGCO ESIC with profits.
Oddlot
TRIN CCI showing selling today, and setting up next buy when:
CCI relaxes under +100 and corresponding cci for price has been in oversold and subsequently comes above -100 after trin relaxes.
The 5-7 day cycle may be current at 6 days, as shown by the separation of the highs. If so, the next low would be Mon 4/2.
Oddlot
Charts: SPY re rec long.
1min OBV is long.
The 5min system includes a requirement that the trend as defined by violation of the prior 5day cycle highs/lows be in the direction of the trade. This trend has never varied from UP. The OBV signal is in the UP mode, and therefore the system goes from flat to LONG.
SPY SSO long SSO 58.88.
New highs in price, new highs OBV. All systems go. I dont understand it but is that anything unusual???????
Oddlot
SPY SDS out of bearish position on SDS stop at 15.08. Position flat in indices.
Oddlot
SPY SDS correction: 5min OBV sys is flat, not short. Two requirements for signal: an OBV signal, which both variants gave (barely), and convincing violation of the prior "5day cycle" extreme. In this case, tbe cyclic extreme is 136.49 and with conflicting signals the system is flat.
As usual, I am front running everything and holding bearish positions in SDS and SMN.
Oddlot
SPY 5 min OBV systems also short, but just barely. Next breakdown will find support near 138.25 on cyclic projection. However, will probably maintain majority of position even in the face of support.
Oddlot
haha re AGCO: might go as you suggest. However, often the high close from the prior consolidation marks the low of the retracement. The stock is cheap and worthy of a small shot, so I took it. And I have other stocks with orders hoping to catch cheap stocks on the decline, but with very modest risk limits.
Oddlot
AGCO long 48.12 with stop 46.43
Very undervalued: PE 8.26, P/sales 0.54, P/free cash flow 11.23; clean balance sheet with current ratio 1.66, and LT debt/equity 0.47; 5 yr rev growth rate 10.05%, q/q: eps +233% vs sales +16.1%; ROA 8.45%
A 50% pullback from last low would be 46.98. Support zone 46.5-48.0.
Oddlot
SPY SDS added more SDS 15.18 with stop 15.07
SPY SDS holding bearish position via.SDS at 15.25, also holding SMN from 14.15.
The cycle guru mentioned by BT called for a major high near 3/14 and a decline into June; his expectation is for a 40 week low, for which we have no evidence yet of a high. However, such a high should occur concurrently for the shorter term cycles. CCIs for cycles of 5/10/20/33 days have given intraday sell signals, and the next domino to fall should be the 13 week. The guru follows a weekly set of 10/20/40 weeks, and others, and the signals agree with the scenario.
Oddlot
CORN holding long 40.20, CCI for 5/10/20 day cycles have all been -200 today. Trying to add near 40.50 and hoping for breakout on next upswing.
Oddlot
SPY SDS bought SDS at 15.25 in premarket due to steady decline and strong violation of the intraday trendline.
Oddlot
SPY SDS falling into place!
The short term(?) top I discussed already had a Bradley signal, proximity to channel resistance, and various CCI sells; what it lacked was signals from stochrsi (which normally come before CCI) and the trendline violation. We got a turn down after challenging the channel, and stochrsi broke below 80 for a sell on the 10day cycle, with CCI on the edge, and price just above the TL. IMHO the mkt is on the edge of a small cliff. Downside is to 137-136 SPY.
Position is short basic materials, and looking to buy various undervalued, trending stocks on the selloff. On a longer view, this is midrange in a LT channel with potential above (choke!) 150.
Oddlot
SPY SDS will buy SDS if SPY trades under 140.70 near the close.
SPY intraday/Bradley turndate
March 16 was a "major" Bradley turndate, with the next one in mid summer. If valid, either the velocity of this upmove will increase(seems unlikely), or we will top and decline for awhile. There are cyclic reasons to call a major low early April, but nothing else has worked out so that call is suspect.
The CCI for 5/10/20 day cycles have all given sell signals. The stochrsi for 10/20 day cycles have not confirmed, and this indicator usually is ahead and not behind. IF stochrsi will join the party, and the TL from the 5day MA is broken, I would say that the Bradley top is in place for whatever period it lasts.
SPY channels and cyclic commentary part III
The green channels are based on the MA13, with one being the most current slope, and the other reflecting some of the older bleedthru bumps along the road. We are near the top of the most agressive channel, but the low is near 134, so any good selloff is a buy.
SPY channels and cyclic commentary part II
The MA39 shows the effect of everything longer than 39 weeks, hence same as MA79 plus the 18 month cycle. It is increasingly positive also.
The hot pink MA19 is the quarterwave for the MA79, and the TL shows the point at which one should consider the MA79 to have topped and be headed down. Until that point, no 18 month top is in.
SPY channel and cycle commentary part I.
The MA79 shows the cumulative effect of cycles longer than 79 weeks, and is increasingly positive. The LT, in the opinion of the market, is not a problem at this time. The blue channel has an upper boundary of maybe 153 which matches some other projections.
alexed: agree. On its face, SPY is in an uptrend and I await CCI/trin and CCI/SPY to go to extremes (high selling with mkt oversold) before taking modest initial entry.
Oddlot