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SPY my guess is a high tomorrow. We have two lows 7 days apart, and this is day 6 from the high. And we have not yet got anything resembling a short term top, IMHO, so waiting til manana.
Oddlot
GLD: Charles Nenner, analyst par excellence, has recommended long gold and silver after bottom mid April, or just buy it. Target 2500+ for gold, and 50+ silver.
I use cycles of 16.5/33/95 weeks, and an observable recent pattern of approx 25 weeks. The CCI for each of these has given buys in the last 2-3 days for both GLD and GLD:FXF, so it is possible the long awaited move has begun. Confirmation, IMHO, would be sustaine violation of the quarterwave TLs pertaining to these cycles, and various such TLs are shown. Basically, strength from here is the proof.
I have made money once.in a career with options, doing covered writes on margin. Rest of the time, not so well. Sworn off of them.
Oddlot
SDS closed at 16.00 AH
Rotor: since the peak was right-translated, perhaps the 4/11 point will also be "late".
Bliss: your phasing points to a potential nest 4-5 weeks from here, in the middle of the zone which I posted of a cluster mid April-late May. IMHO SPY 128-130 is a perfect place to target exit and regroup, with the following bounce being significant but major LT lows 2013-2014.
Good trades.
Oddlot
marishipu: obv shows how the longs are getting creamed. Other posts have targets short-term at SPY 135.80-136.40, and pnf targets of 132 and lower. Could easily see 128-130 as preferred area to close shorts and regroup. My post re cycle phasing defines a time zone mid April-late May as area for major low; wide area with main utility being a warning for longs. Bottoms usually have bases and not "V" shapes, so there should be time to plan the next longs. The next low is not to be "the" low but just a significant bounce on the way to major low in 2013 or later.
Another post showed a trendline against short-term obv for several months and the violation was the perfect signal.
Good trades.
Oddlot
OBV sys update:
1min OBV is short but the signal was only by a hair and should probably not count.
The two 5min OBV indicators are in the same boat: just past the threshold on the close. While I am short on other grounds, a further weakness in these methods would buttress my case. Awaiting tomorrow, but would not fear a bounce and not the classic strategy of selling the first higher close after a trendline break.
SPY cci for 10min trin was overbought (price oversold) but is now trying to swing the other way. An oversold cci for trin usually corresponds to price above equilibrium, and a sell signal for price from cci should be a valid entry in a new bear trend. Watching with small bearish SDS position.
Oddlot
SPY SDS bought some SDS 15.63.
The OBV system is flat, awaiting confirmation from OBV indicator. The range indicator went below the 3.5 day low for OBV, so that is one; the 1 dev BB is still awaiting move to "significant" decline. And price went below the last 5day cyclic low, so trend is down.
Short term CCI's are obviously oversold, and need a bounce in order to sell more.
SPY stopped out of SSO at 56.01 on opening. Dont you luv it...
Other positions....out of HFC near low and stock rallies, bought CACI near low on open order and will see how that one goes, holding half unit SMN which is up, Corn is down slightly, and ESIC holding above support and ok.
So what now? SPY is in definite bear mode IMHO and even the CCI for the 18 month cycle crossed under the +100, the trend lines have been broken from late November, and the only question is where to short. When in doubt, a little here and little there.
Sell some with SPY 138.38 surely will get a little bounce.
SPY OBV chart of 10min OBV with cma's to identify cyclic points in OBV action. Interestingly, the TL across the bottoms lines up perfectly. If one were to seek a system based on entry points, this one qualifies if today turns out to be the start of a bear trend.
Note that the placement of the line will move as stockcharts adjusts their OBV chart to keep it on the page. To use this method, one has to manually update the TL at least daily.
10min trin over same period just for comparison.
Right place, right time. Congrats.
***TIP: to find the boards used and posts made by any user, click on username and either click on "boards posted" or click on the number of posts to bring up recent posts.
Marishipu: I expect the OBV indicators to go short Monday. See most recent posts on BT Timing board. Good to hear from.you
Oddlot
uplata: thanks for the chart. You are using a 12 week cycle, while my nominal is 13 weeks with range of error, so we are definitely on the same page. The chart which I posted was to show some cluster of cyclic lows coming from mid April to mid June. The point is not to predict the exact time of high or low, but to suggest that trend reversals coming soon could carry further than expected (due to multiplicity of lows) and that buying the reversal off of the coming lows should be very profitable for potential holders with 6 month time horizon. Caveat is that a new president will change the monetary/fiscal dynamics, and the expectation is for huge weakness in 2013-2014.
Good trades,
Oddlot
Re filters: my best answer is two step. FINVIZ has a decent fundamental filter that is customizable, and results can be further screened by custom display showing fundamental items that are not screenable. The final list can go into a stock list at stockcharts.com where the technical screens can be done based on daily data, although intraday updates are option. The only thing missing is intraday indicators for screening, but the output list is easily visually checked 10/page in your custom style(s).
Finviz is free, stockcharts realtime is about $30 per month and worth every dime.
Oddlot
SPY outlook positive. CCI for cycles 5/10/20 days are all moving higher after oversold. DPO for 5day intraday points to low today and then upmove, which may have already started. Holding SSO with stops, and ready to be a bear on breakdown below SPY 139.00
Oddlot
SPY finally got buy signals from both cci and stochrsi for the 5day cycle set.
Haha: unsure of exact question, but view is that shortterm support (5day cycle) is approx SPY 139.00. OBV systems are/remain long. In this situation, buying signals from combo of stochrsi/cci geared to the 5day cycle has provided good entries. CCI levels below -200 also tend to mark entries. Have bought yesterday and today with 5minCCI(128) near the -200 level, and watching ST trendlines. 139.40 may or not hold, but IMHO is a buy.
Oddlot
SPY the 1min OBV chart (sorry, not shown) has a higher value now than early this AM.
This "divergence" usually resolves in favor of OBV, and would imply the bull trend is intact. Holding SSO, 1/2 unit SMN, various small value holdings in uptrends
Oddlot
SSO added at 57.49
SMN sold half of position 15.34
SPY SSO long SSO 58.20