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Leftyg: yes my tight stop was a bad idea… while having a good target! I have the same experience with stops, but I am stingy…an inherited handicap!
We have similar strategies. Hope they work. But...my SPY long with trailing stop(chicken!?) hit at 139.66.
Gleno: I have 2 short enty points for Qs if they will show valid rez: 48.67 and 48.95. Since the first rez just held, entered small short on Qs while keeping SPY long with trailing stop.
Next stop for SPY & strong rez = day target = 139.98.
Ready to go short soon on Qs
139.36 = short term rez for SPY. Broken NOW.
Be: Spy support at138.73 held. Got buy signal right there. Are Qs that different?
Blasher, good point! Done it already!
Hi Dan and NM! Yep, he is a joke, but cannot be used as a contrarian indicator either. He is not that reliable!
Dan & aaiig: am in total agreement. For a long time.
Yes, Gleno… and as you noticed the Qs are having now a timid UP channel. But the slope of the channel is relatively mild and the internal amplitude of the moves is high. So, who makes money? Neither Bulls, nor Bears but Foxes who sell expensive puts and calls in front of OpExp. I don’t know about Pigs. Do they get slaughtered? Let’s ask Cramer!
Hi Gleno! Here is DUG! I play it based on three “hints”:
1). It moves more abruptly than OIH since it lacks the inertia of a well established junkie that has a lot of “participants”. Thus while OIH flattens, DUG will move in the opposite direction, IF helped by 2). and 3).
2). Fractal Limits are more reliable than the price defined limits of a move.
3). Money (of da Boyz) starts to go either in or out, as seen in "Money Flow".
Hi Gleno! I am still around. I am reading the posts and enjoying them, but do not have much to contribute. As a Unitarian, I am quite tolerant with other denominations or religions. As you might have heard, Unitarians consider the Holly Ghost with a semi-agnostic smile. Therefore they remain untouched by Its divine wing and stay often dull, uninspired and definitely not militant. Doing my usual game before OpExp : calendar spreads. I am also swing-treading FCX, VRTX, TEX, OIH and DUG. Have a great trip to the Lake!
Leftyg, I liked Jack K. very much. That speech reverberated throughout occupied Europe, behind the Iron Curtain, for many years. My joke was addressed at Obama and Wright and the caricature of freedom that they both preach. Remember the idiotic and pretentious Wright delirium about black people thinking and learning with their right lobe and white people with their left? This is the essence of diversity?! How about black/white hybrids like Wright? Is this pattern inherited as a recessive or a dominant character? Is it polygenic or is it controlled by one single locus with only two alleles, the black and the white? ….This slum neuroscience is supposed to be the basis for the American Liberation and Unification movement?!…
Foot, I think I watched too much political stuff lately. Last night I had a nightmare... I was having friends for dinner when, abruptly, Obama and reverent Wright showed up…in my dining room. Barak shouted something in a strange language. I said “Sorry?!” to which he replied “Ich bin ein Berliner!” and rev. Wright, approvingly, gave us a fascist salute and said “Sieg Heil!”
Hi Dan, nice to have you back. How was your trip?
Gleno, looking at the SPY and asking: how can it be up so much when OIH and all metals are visiting my huskies, in the snow. The answer is clear: the wonderful “financials” are up because they are “outperforming the market”. Terrific rationale. WMT is also up again. Dan probably still owns it….
Gleno, I think some volatility is to be expected now as a neurotic reaction to yesterday. Then, a flat for a while…. after which a really meaningful and consequential move can happen. Trying to stay out of this for the moment.
Gleno: this chart is a follow up of the NDX waves, previously posted. It should be a nightmare for an anti-chartist, because today the index spanned precisely over one fractal Fibonacci step. It topped at the 61.8% and dropped all the way to the 50%. These steps are not produced ad hoc: they were previously posted. A true chartist would explain that NDX can go much lower if it closes tomorrow under 1911.40, or - if it closes above 1953.16 - it will continue the C wave and go higher. Well, thank you…..that’s exactly what I hate about some kind of TA - its inability to take a decision NOW. This is probably so because gurus try to sell you something, and it is in their advantage to keep you in a state of suspense and fear…so that you subscribe. But I am not one of them. I took some money out of the market, sold 3 times puts during the last hour and at the end I took a small short position, just to remember tomorrow that I have an opinion: the top was a top, the volume was convincing, and I see NDX at the beginning of the next wave down.
Blash, That’s what I mean: “double play”… on both sides.
Blash, Thanks. Yours looks good too. Do you also have the secret hope of a “double play”?
Gleno: sorry, you mean big MA? I thought…this market. Also, yes …and out.
Gleno: Yep, PUTS… with the hedge described in msg# 48549
Gleno: To filter out the TV noise, 45 min before the FED, I will watch : price action, money flow, vol. and moves in commodities. By the way, remember my TA yesterday, for shorting big MA today?
Good question, Two. I am also wondering about how to position myself in front of the FED. Of course, one could be flat.
But, since I think ( like some of you guys) that there is something fishy in this rally, I am considering “asymmetric hedging“: have puts on SPY and Qs while holding SSO and QLD. Why?
Because if the markets go down, the puts will increase in value significantly, due to the VIX effect, and the 2x baskets can be discarded easily.
Gleno, congrats for calling the top PRECISELY at 47.76
Qs: 3:20 - 3.22 pm ET = 47.70 to 47.65. Let’s see what follows……
A time pivot for Qs: 3:20 - 3.22 pm ET. The move in that interval should be continued into closing…
The chicken ate the Fox: sold my QLD - probably too early
Is 47.73 going to hold?
Foot: right shoulder (1397?) almost completed!
Foot: are you watching big MA? I plan to hit her tomorrow. I hope that this afternoon Cramer and Fast Money will pump her into exhaustion?
Gleno: Big MA beat expectations big time. I do NOT short her until tomorrow!. She has one more short leg to go. Maybe 282.4 (intersection of upper trend line & Fibonacci speed/ resistance arc, next in line). Then …she is toast.
Gleno: AAPL is doing it again. That’s why I got out of the short trade. Is he going to drag up the Qs or making adouble top?
Yes, I am. When it happens, it’s a matter of finding the top. For the Qs, I am looking at 47.7.
Covered AAPL at 173.53. Too risky to hold shorts!
Hi Gleno! Got a short signal for Apple, on13 min at 174.59.
Out of MA short at 237.45!
Gleno, it is unbelievable…If you notice the Vol. Rate of Change on my NDX daily, this morning… it is almost a math impossibility, even in a fish market. It’s worth than Monopoly games in my childhood, with my grandmother.
Hi Denmo! When you got your dog (called Wrigley, if I remember), did you also buy the stock baring his name, to honor him?
Hi Gleno! Just got an intraday short signal on MA!