Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
gwtf good to hear from you, and to have you on my side.
Good trades.
Oddlot
Rotor: influence of AAPL. Trends of mkt reflect factors affecting all stocks, and the effect of one stock usually tapers off quickly. Personally, I think AAPL is ripe for a return to reality. News blurb said sales of iphone by ATT, and Verizon were disappointing.
ESIC breakout. Long from 4.70
insert-text-here
Thanks, kiy
OT: the good thing is that when I get it wrong, no one gives me a hardtime. The bad thing is that when I get it right, no one says anything either. I would charge more but double nothin is still nothin......
Oddlot
SPY SDS obv update
Holding multiple units SDS.
OBV systems remain bearish. Note that SPY price is challenging the low of April 11 at 135.76, but OBV is substantially below its low on April 11. Implies ongoing selling in recent days, and likelihood that the April 11 low will not hold.
Note also the OBV chart superimposed on SPY with the cma's. That is the definition of a trending chart, that turned at the highs and is trending down.
SPY status of trend/cycles.
The status of a cycle can be see in the CCI, the stochrsi with parameters half length of cycle, and the TL with slope of the MA with length 1/4 of the cycle.
The 18 month is up but trying to fall with the CCI120 having given sell signal. The TL is approx 134 SPY.
The 9 month has given sell signal from CCI, stochrsi, and TL.
The shorter cycles 26week, 13week etc have also given sells and fallen to potential lows. With the expectation of MAJOR lows in June/July IMHO any bounce should be weathered in order to be in place for those lows.
Holding SDS from SPY 138.40-138.80.
Oddlot
SPY SDS holding bearish positions. The 18 month cycle appears to be headed down due to violation of MA97 trendline, and the 13 week cycle also appears to be headed lower, due to violation of the MA17 TL. With the daily CCI20 having gone below -200, it is likely that a rally may ensue. However, the trend is down and has to play out. Objective for SPY is 133-134.50.
Marishipu: imho, obv over a long interval is much less useful than over very short intervals. As such it is perhaps best for timing actions that you have already reviewed and accepted. Re moving average crossovers for trend ID: that approach obviously keeps you on a LT trend, but at the risk of substantial whipsaw losses. MAs act as digital filters that block shortterm frequencies and pass LT(longer than 1.5x length of MA). I use them solely to determine the slope of trendlines for purpose of creating channels.
Marishipu: unsure of logic, but looks like a mean reversion scheme without any overlay of trend. Is that right?
SPY SDS classic setup by end of yesterday. The 5min OBV systems are and remain short. Trin had been significantly low, in CCI overbought territory, and then relaxed. Price CCi was in CCI overbought territory and some relaxed into neutral, some had yet to do so, so shorts were active and pending. Status this AM: note the 1min OBV and the fact that it is very near the low of the last several days, where as price in in the middle of the range. Since OBV is presumably a leading indicator, this supports the current analysis of rally in bear trend and a selling opportunity today.
Oddlot
SPY SDS classic setup by end of yesterday. The 5min OBV systems are and remain short. Trin had been significantly low, in CCI overbought territory, and then relaxed. Price CCi was in CCI overbought territory and some relaxed into neutral, some had yet to do so, so shorts were active and pending. Status this AM: note the 1min OBV and the fact that it is very near the low of the last several days, where as price in in the middle of the range. Since OBV is presumably a leading indicator, this supports the current analysis of rally in bear trend and a selling opportunity today.
Oddlot
SPY SDS bought 2 units SDS 15.49 with stop 15.28
SDS stopped out of position taken today. Bought 15.64, out 15.38
SDS added to position at 15.64, stop 15.38.
Oddlot
SDS if seen buy at 15.64 with stop 15.38. This attempts to short SPX near 1380.
Oddlot
SDS if seen, buy 15.64 with stop 15.38
I may be wrong but when Ki lost "his best friend", I took that to mean his wife had passed. There has been no further mention of her since that time and his posts have been more consistent in style with few times of uncivil discourse.
Big> thanks. With more time elapsed, lower targets can be generated. Currently SPY 133 is about the lowest area with confidence. Others are a little lower, but at this time I cant get below the 126 area. Good luck with your trading.
Oddlot
Bliss: while the 3/4 day cycle may be important, the 6-8 day seems to be more visible in the action, and the call would be for a low Wed/Thurs of next week, perhaps in the 133-134 area.
Holding SDS at 15.55 from SPY 138.40-138.80.
Oddlot
Deep> re ".. but I hope we are keeping this board alive.. ". I notice that there is little cohesion amongst the group here. Lots of individuals posting, but nobody is asking re methods, targets, what would change opinion, etc, or receiving congrats on good trade when they make one and had the courage to tell us at time of entry of the trade. I think if we all talked more to each other, then the board could survive anything. A community is more than a group, but rather a history and memory of past failures, accomplishments, and lessons learned.
I hope to see more from everyone, and I am not picking on you. Thanks for your conversations with Big.
Oddlot
Big: is there a point under the mkt which, if hit, would cancel your bullish calls?
Oddlot
SPY SDS holding SDS 15.50 purchased with SPY 138.40-138.80. IMHO, mkt is on downswing with next target 133-134, and time target Wed-Thurs next week. Longer term significant lows are expected mid May and expect bearish bias to continue until then. IMHO, a drop to 128-130 would give perfect place to exit and regroup.
SPS SDS added more SDS 15.53
GOLD long 2x etf DGP at 53.50. All of the trendlines previously discussed have been broken to upside.
SPY SDS long SDS 15.56 with 5minCCI128 near +200.