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I am with Golf on this happyalways.
Pref's really do need to realize they are not the center of the GSE universe. Yes, they have their place in the capital structure, but we are in conservatorship until the government says we are not. Until then, no one has any pull or special privelege. It just happens that commons are more prone to uptick on good news and are more widely recognized for their benefit with voting rights once released...
Government will keep things neutral, that is my premise. I am capitalist 100%, but GSE's aRe special situation that got made even special through the years but the previous corrupt administration. This administration is trying to rectify things, but I do not see them playing favorites with anyone.
Courts are a blue herring, this is for sure. People comparing Citi really need to look at size of companies, importance to economy, cap requirement and boat load of other stuff before comparing CITI to the GSE's. It's apples and oranges as we've been saying for a while. Example: I highly doubt Citi had the NWS implemented 5 years into conservatorship.
Just my opinion.
That I can whole heartedly agree with.
The government is good, you might even say great, at scamming the system. But then, they created it.
Nope...buying at par gives many JPS the "windfall" since most have bought below par. Government and financial advisors will come up with an average based on purchases for a time period. Some pref's will do better than others, but those who bought a $50 par pref for $7, I highly doubt will get $50 or $50+.
Last buyout number the pref cheerleader Pelagria (sp?) Bounced was 80%.
I'm thinking there may even be a laddered payout to pref buyers based on when shares were purchased.
Remember the words...NO WINDFALL. that mean pref's as well as commons. Anything the government does special for pref's is handling them like a direct claim, and would need to do the same for commons.
Yank, if I can dig out my post....I pretty much said this same thing months ago (3, 4 or 5).
Back then pref's were more on the liquidation band wagon still.
I pointed out: commons will stay commons, no special treatment, and likewise for prefs. I also pointed out commons had stock price growth potential while pref's would have to wait for a capitalization goal to be met before a dividend coupon payment is made . I predicted 2 to 3 years. I stand by that still. Pref shares will lose in price the longer the dividend is turned off, as you said, and I agree. It will be at that point that the GSE'S start to buy back the pref's and probably close them out, especially the high interest ones.
There is a method to the government and financial advisors madness. Pref's are like the picture of the monkeys with hands over eyes, mouth and ears, all the while saying LALALALALALALALA
Nope...not a fact. You really have a hard time distinguishing between "fact" and opinion/conjecture don't you?
I was hoping someone would get it.
But eventually they pout and yell like now! Who moved my cheese! Lmao
Sticky
Hopefully it will help the pref people......eventually
+billions
Why do the GSE's even have a preffered class? Pref's please explain..... the government and the market has already shown that the GSE's are invaluable for bailing out the taxpayer mortgagor AND the banks along with the small mortgage companies, so how in the world do prefs ever get "liquidation" - bankruptcy? They are paid a coupon dividend for the use of their money, so exactly like a bond.
Attached is a list of all government fhfa, treasury and court judges who have advocated a pref conversion:
Excellent facts.
Can we sticky one of these cap rule links?
Things seem to be happening just before holidays with the government...I'm guessing release consent decree by around July 4th
Wasn't it pref holders, not too long ago, quoting ACG people/process and saying NO CONSENT DECREE and that they would get their massive conversion before that or release?
Perfect
Definitely +1
Cross your fingers...hopefully relist price is coming soon.
Spot on!
That kinda makes sense Yank....GSE's and banks in the same boat, covering each others backs gives both incentives to support and not screw each other. FHFA needs something like this so GSE's can "police" the banks and mortgage houses from irrational lending.
This is not true...plenty of companies right now are cutting and/or discontinuing their dividends due to this shock from the virus and they are still raising needed capital. Many companies have IPO'd or raised money without dividend payment, just go back to the .com Era to see many.
Please prove otherwise your argument about a needed dividend.
Capital coming from courts....kaaaaching!
Capital coming from refi's....kaaaaching!
Capital coming from forbearance fees from mortgage companies...kaaaaching
And best of all, capital coming from those who keep buying prefs! Kaching, kaching, kaching....lol sorry
Most JPS probably bought out gradually before hitting par since par is probably years away
Someone else posted that also...except commons were up 3-4 cents and pref's up .01
Capital coming from courts....kaaaaching!
Capital coming from refi's....kaaaaching!
Capital coming from forbearance fees from mortgage companies...kaaaaching
And best of all, capital coming from those who keep buying prefs! Kaching, kaching, kaching....lol
Exactly as we've been saying. Pref's stay as prefs. No conversion, no split to benefit them, no par or dividend. ...at least until the companies are out of the woods. If that is 2, 3, 4, 5, years then that is how it goes.
Yes, commons get no dividends either but we have direct benefit of stock appreciating.
If pref's were illiquid before, my guess is they become even more so if this is drug out.
Might be new class of swamp creature?...
That kinda blows Kthompson out of the water!
His whole premise was conversion, or split or ba ba ba but par to 125% of par before release.
What kind of lock box do the GSE's put 240 billion in to keep governments/Congresses dirty hands off of SO IT IS THERE WHEN NEEDED?
240 BILLION is moronic
200 billion is stupid
150 billion is still much but a good compromise.
Will small mortgage companies and banks, who sell their loans to the GSE's, be on the hook for covering some of this "capital insurance", since they are usually primarily responsible for bad loans and most down turns(?), present one excluded, but it would be money to help them cya in an event like this.
Commons canceled acting like the rookie he is...using this as a done deal event to try and scare someone. Guy needs to get educated, HELLO! 90 day comment perriod, did ya miss that buddy? or maybe it's the result of head injury?. Who knows.
Definitely! Many countries do not even have a GDP that comes close to that.
My guess is we will land north of 100billion since previous apical before take over was approx 90billion, BUT way south of 200billion....thinking 135/145billion
Yes he does! The previous administration dragged the previous capital into a special funds black hole and spent it...but they'll never admit it.
They'll stick with "pooof", as in magically disappeared.
Warrants canceled and SPS will be used to raise capital along with government keeping a chunk until the twins are ready to run full speed.
Hahahahaha....ooohhh so right. Lmao
Boy, all the pref holders coming out of the woodwork to each display their knowledge of ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Fantastic ano, thank you
If it is true in that article, yes, pref's are in for some hurt. Just like they were saying new investors would not want current commons to benefit when they were preaching their common dilution, now shoe is on other foot. New pref's will want old ones wiped out possibly, maybe bought out, but I doubt full par is in the offering since the senior pref's is a big ax over their heads.
We will see if this is all true. Might be speculation and rumor for all we know right now.
Question for the board...
If and or when a court does finally find for plaintiffs, how is the 12 years of time factored in? 12 years is a long time for this government to be screwing people. I've been here for all 12 +1.
If found in the wrong about any of the current litigation, how do courts handle it with 12 years of being basically held hostage, because we all know the conservatorship was a sham from day 1, then we progressed into being taxpayer and government whipping boys for years.