Existing shareholders could very well still get screwed over. Reorganized sounds similar to Cancelled. Thankfully, Preferreds have a Contract which will protect them in this event. Sadly, Commons have no such protection.

The selling might intensify once folks finish reading through this report and determine if this reorganization is going to negatively affect Common shareholders.

Hopefully the Average Joe's have hedged their holdings, because Reorganized is a daunting word to overcome.

13 million volume and we're still down. Amazing! It just goes to show, there is way too much uncertainty with Common shares. Preferreds took off like a rocket ship while Commons Popped and Flopped. Looks like the few smart Average Joe's took advantage of this liquidity and swapped to Preferreds.

If this isn't a Rotation from Commons to Preferreds, I don't know what is.

You guys didn't really think G-Fees were going to stay this high once the Conservatorship ended, did you?

EPS goes Down, Down, Down as the Flames go higher.

Multiple Guarantors = Lower G-Fees. OOPS! Not good for future EPS. This is another slap in the face of Average Joe's around the world.

Reversal seems imminent. Black eye for the chart if we have all this volume and still close Red. Step it up Average Joe's!

Mulvaney's Proposal still discusses a reduction in GSE footprint and adds competition. Not good for EPS and not good for Commoners.

June 6th is the document creation date

Mulvaney's New Plan Revealed!

Pages 75-77. Removing the Federal Charters and adding more competition. Not good!

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-2324-dbdc-a96d-373e4e2a0000


This does not look good for Average Joe's. We will probably need to file some more lawsuits ASAP! It would be great for that SEC Letter regarding the Warrants to come to light now; otherwise, $1.25 is guaranteed.

More negative dollar volume. Not looking good at all. Seems the market is finally pricing in ~$100 Billion in dilution, which utterly destroys any hope for solid Earnings Per Share in the future. Utility Model would further wither away at that EPS number, which is now looking like $0.30-.50/year for Fannie. Even with a 20x PE multiple, that would be $10 for Average Joe's Common shares.

If we have a real panic after Moelis is announced, we might see sub-$1 as more AJ's Rotate to Preferreds.

Moelis says $9-12 by 2020, but we're behind a year in their plan since their calculations had us retaining capital starting this time last year. We are looking at 2021 now, then we might see the low end of that range.

So to answer your question regarding December 2019 price, divide your $250 by 50. Average Joe's should see $5 by the end of 2019.

Not a recco

In retrospect, Moelis was definitely our Golden Ticket and we threw it away for the $1,000/share Average Joe Plan. I think we can all agree that $10 is likely our best case scenario at this point (pending Reverse Splits).

Hopefully Berkowitz backs off his Short Commons position and helps get Moelis back on the table. It's probably the only chance shareholders ever see any returns

Any chance we see $2 again this year? That would be ~33% from these prices. Still a long ways from the 100% we need to get back to where we started the year, but that seems like a long-shot at this point.

I think getting back above $2 would go a long ways to improve morale amongst the Average Joe's

Need $1.60 break or we re-test the Lows. I'm calling all of the Average Joe's to step-up and help throw some spare change at the Ask. It's the only way we can turn this POS around. Everybody pitch in tomorrow to help the cause.

We don't want those "Worthless Junior Preferred" Shareholders to continue to out-perform us Commoners. We have a lot of catching up to do. It's now or never!

When the majority of the volume is selling, that's not something to be excited about. Preferreds are at least stable and have stayed in a 5% range for most of this year. Their average dollar volume is actually higher as well.

Commons, on the other hand, are down ~50% YTD. That's bad volume

Fear not young Commoner, Moelis is on the horizon and will solve all of our problems.

We should sticky all of kthomp's posts. His analytical and mathematical approach to breaking down the barriers of Average Joe denial is truly magnificent.

It really helps put things into perspective and helps newcomers realize where things actually stand versus where the Average Joe's hopes/dreams factor into the equation.

I appreciate your thorough analysis, kthomp19. Thank you for your contributions to the board.

With ~$100 billion in new shares, the Common Volume is going to need to be a lot higher.

Can the Average Joe's bring enough new buying interest or will the dilution push the price to sub-$1?

Dollar volume says otherwise. Average Joe's gonna regret not Rotating while they had the chance. Don't say we didn't tell you so when the dilution comes pouring down

Release The SEC Letter! We need it now. The GSEs could be released upon verification of its contents

This summarizes the last few years for Preferred Holders trying to educate the Average Joe's.

This shows the dollar volume is in Preferreds. Thank you for clarifying.

This post really should be stickied. And to think, you only took the most actively traded Preferreds for Fannie and Freddie. When you factor in all the other Preferred classes, it's roughly 3-4x the dollar volume of the Commons.

It goes to show where the money is moving to ==> Preferreds.

Moelis already did all the leg-work for you. Buy the ticket, take the ride.

They'll need to raise capital before the Release from Conservatorship can occur. I'd be expecting an imminent announcement regarding a Capital Raise to the tune of ~$100 billion before an announcement regarding their Release

Odd, they list Preferreds as Capital yet again. Hmmmm. We need Carlos to clarify why they keep making this mistake time and time again. He obviously knows more than the FHFA.

I would rather swap my bag at Par and become a Commons bag-holder. Then I will even support the Average Joe Plan with unwavering commitment.

When the Conversion happens, don't cry. It's what I said would happen and you will have to deal with all that dilution from my Preferred shares. And remember, it's what you purchased!

Showing my support for the best Plan put forward. No other plan helps Commons and Preferreds alike. It is the most rewarding plan for all shareholders. Everyone should support it!

That would be a lot of lost equity if true. Are you sure this happened?

It would be devastating if this is true as the GSEs would need to raise another $50B in Capital if they wrote off the Jr. Preferreds.

Market Manipulation - the excuse of all Average Joe's. It's called uncertainty and speculation, not manipulation. People are shorting/selling because the likelihood of a positive outcome for shareholders is looking less and less likely.

Commons could still see 3-5x upside from here. Anything higher than that is cuckoo. And they could certainly see lower

If only the market saw things thru your rose-colored glasses. Unfortunately, the market sees things for what they are - Bleak. There's still a high probability shareholders see very little, or possibly nothing. Hence, the current price.

I doubt it will be a public forum tomorrow. Which means the Joe Light's of the world will get to ask all of the questions. Your assumption is probably accurate.

Reverse Splits might be the only way Commons ever see double-digits.

Are we still seeing the Average Joe's Rotating into Preferreds? There's way too much volume considering we are in a steady decline.

You would think if people were actively buying into some of these ridiculous theories (AJP/Carlos) that there would be some upward pressure on the price.

Alas, it's all selling and Rotating.

Assuming all those things occur, $3-5 is doable over the next couple of years if FHFA/Treasury is okay with 3.25% capital. If they demand 5% capital, then Commons are fairly priced at current levels.

Lots of "If's" and "Hopefully's" for the Average Joe's. Neither should be the thesis for an investment.

We're all just twiddling our thumbs waiting for tomorrow's developments. Let's see if the Civil Rights' letter has any implications for tomorrow's review of FHFA's Proposed Rule on Enterprise Capital

Except for the fact he's Mnuchin's right-hand man. His view definitely carries a lot of clout, more than your Average Joe's view does.

Keep closing your eyes, plugging your ears, and saying "La La La" ... one day we will all wake up to a big Moelis slap to the face. That will be the Average Joe's "Aha!" Moment.

The good thing is, Commons could still see double-digit dollars ($10-12) at some point under Moelis. That's a lot of up-side from these prices assuming the FHFA doesn't stab us in the back with a Receivership and Cancellation of Commons.

I had no idea Average Joe's were such a greedy bunch. ~10x up-side is staring them in the face and they're throwing a fit they might not see 100x returns. These folks don't sound like Average Joe's to me at all. Nope, they sound more like Hedge Funds and paid pumpers.

This sounds like the Average Carlos Plan. In the realm of reality, it's not practical to assume the taxpayer would be on the hook for another 6 years. Best to do the recap ASAP.

The market is reacting today to the reality of how much dilution Average Joe's will be facing in the near-term.

Any overreaction might take us to sub-$1. Let's hope the market doesn't overreact

Yep. Preferreds Convert at Par to Commons (500%). Then, they get to enjoy that 10,000% up-side as Average Joe's.

Everyone Wins!! Some more than others.

I haven't seen any Yahoo Finance Updates lately. Did an up-listing occur recently that we might've missed? Any other hidden signals?

Hope is not an investment. Us Average Joe's need to face the facts. The Government has man-handled the GSEs for 10 years. Do you honestly think they're just going to take accountability, apologize, and right their wrong? LMAO!

I certainly hope we have a realistic view of the situation for the GSE's. It's unlikely to abruptly change in our favor. We will be lucky to get some scraps after the rapings that have occurred.