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Thanks for sharing, I like that this board has posting rules and is moderated (unlike the Yahoo board where folks with devious intentions can freely post inaccurate and misleading information).
Easy, thanks for your valuable insights. Like you I've been here what seems to be an eternity (since 2009) and nearly lost it all around the reverse split but it finally looks like things are shaping up and the stock is now beginning its climb to more fair value. The challenge over the coming months IMO will be patience, since a +$30 stock price when we get back to that level might look like nice paper profit to many, but it is still only a fraction of what the company is worth ($30 equates to roughly a $1 billion valuation for ADXS). With this latest Amgen deal, I think Dan O'Connor is signaling that he was serious when he told shareholders at the annual meeting a couple years ago that he thought ADXS could be valued on par with ImClone, which was sold for $6.5 billion. GLTA
If and when ADXS gets up to +$50 we seriously need to resurrect the trip folks were thinking about planning in Venice (invitation to ADXS longs only).
Thanks for posting, very encouraging comments surrounding the clinical trials. Based on the current share price and market cap reported by Yahoo, there are approximately 83m shares outstanding, so a market cap of $100m would be a stock price of around $1.20. Looking forward to developments with FDA regarding potential clearance in 2014.
Agreed, this is a significant development that will create runway for the company and its current low valuation to appreciate meaningfully. Well done Advaxis!
The proposed OIP increase is not just excessive, it is insulting to shareholders considering the +50% drop in the value of the stock over the last couple years, coupled with the fact ADXS removed the OIP from last year's proxy claiming they did so because they believed it was important to align management interests with those of shareholders.
Thanks for the post Lionshare. I agree, things are picking up for IVOB. Additionally, the company has submitted a 510(k) application for U.S. clearance which the FDA is currently considering.
Am I on the wrong board? I thought this was the ADXS board? Dan, wouldn't your efforts be better served on the NWBO board instead of pumping the stock here while trashing ADXS? Some of us are long-term ADXS shareholders and not interested in flipping stocks based on the transient sentiment of momentum players latching onto the latest Fox news clip.
I know, it's been painful seeing the stock trade down to the current level in the last couple years. What's encouraging is that the market cap is so low now, very attractive valuation from a prospective investment perspective. The trial results to date have been encouraging but the funding situation has held back the stock. If we can get a better funding mechanism in place (uplisting and licensing deal), a re-valuation of the company's market cap to comparable peers such as IMUC should put the stock around 5x what it is now ($25-$30 or $150m market cap).
You obviously don't know ADXS very well. Coming off the heels of the last CEO, Tom Moore, Dan O'Connor is a welcome and much needed change. Mr. Moore was more of a salesman (with all the negative connotations) - he was a very good presenter but a lot of time (arguably) crossed the line of to mislead investors but ultimately wasn't able to deliver (the classic over promise/under-deliver style of leadership) which at the end of the day turned investors away. Dan O'Connor is the real deal. He is passionate, smart and committed to taking ADXS to the next level. There was no fluff or overpromsing in today's interview.
Really? It was an interview with NASDAQ. The last I recall is they are not a paid advertising company. Any other insights (this time maybe something of substance)?
I agree, I spoke to Dan several times leading up to the reverse split and was very impressed. IMO is qualified CEO to take ADXS' market cap to a level comparable with peers (hundred of millions) given ADXS' clinical trial progress and pipeline and is executed on a strategy to meet that goal. I expect we'll see a licensing partnership finalized before year-end either with Fushion Vax of another company. As far as Orphan designation for cervical and head & neck goes, I agree with James in that the FDA is still deciding. They haven't said no yet - if they had, they would have already posted the anal cancer designation (which they granted) on their website. I think they are waiting to post all three decisions at the same time. If it were a clear-cut no on cervical and head & neck cancer, then we would already know. The fact it's taking this long could be positive if they are weighing data they need to confirm orphan designation (of course, it be the opposite, hope not). One thing I wonder if ADXS has considered putting the HPV vaccine up for FDA break-through designation. I don't know the qualifications with this designation, but considered ADXS' Phase II India cervical cancer survival matched or exceeded all previous drug trials for late stage cervical cancer, I would think break-through status is a possibility since these patients have few other options available.
ADXS Investment Opportunity, read latest Seeking Alpha article to learn more about the company's pipeline, recent Phase 2 cervical cancer trial results and new CEO at the helm with a proven track record (was general counsel at ImClone leading up to the sale). ADXS valuation is dirt cheap and bottoming. How often to you find an opportunity to invest in a cancer biotech with multiple trials in process, a Phase 2 completed with compelling results both from an efficacy and safety perspective trading at a mere $32 million valuation?
Excellent post
My understanding is that Dan O'Connor is 48. Wow, he is much more impressive than I thought if he has 50 years of executive biotech experience.
Robert, I agree the stock price will naturually fluctuate, but think the exitement is just getting starting and will gain momentum from here. I've been in for three years and haven't recalled a more optimistic time for ADXS. Many catalyst in the coming months, the biggest being CIN Phase II mid dose results that, according to the CEO, may be announced this month...and I suspect potentially a licensing deal at some point thereafer given the CEO said at a recent conference that the company is in "fairly advanced licensing negotiations." We will see, but if you're bullish on ADXS long-term the next couple months could be turning point in the company's valuation in a positive way. Just my opinion.
Thanks for posting. Great to see the company is working diligently to advance the INVO procdure. Very promising technology, I look forward to hearing further updates.
Not to diminish your goal of profiting from shorting a $0.06 stock, but ADXS is also successfully advancing a potentially game-changing vaccine in the fight against cancer. How unfortunate would it be if the company partners with a large pharma, cancer patients win and you lose. Just the facts.
IVOB is trending up.
IVOB's quaterly results are usually released 45 days or so after the quarter-end so I would expect around August 15. Maybe we will also get an update then on the Brazil situation.
http://www.advaxis.com/page/ir-investor_presentation.html
see investor presentation, "clinical trial snapshot" phase II india trial results to be released 4Q11
The last communication I had with the company was a few months ago. The feedback I received was that they were trying to balance their need for funding with the long-term goal of building the business without giving away the company at the current low share price. I believe what is keeping the company without major dilution is that the procedure works, giving them leverage. If it didn't work, management would be more compelling to secure funding at any cost. If they can get past the current hurdle of adoption of the INVO procedure among doctors on a large scale, business will be self-sustaining. I look forward to the results of the Brazil clinical trial. If positive, remember that Brazil is the largest South American economy and in itelf would create a significant market for IVOB.
Interesting dialogue and valid points on IVOB. I have been invested since 2009 and have added to my position. While I am not happy about the price drop and slow progress the company is making, I belive this company is taking to right steps. They need funding and are entertaining options, but do not want to give the company away. A few points I would make: 1) the company's success will be dependent on a paradigm shift, since traditional IVF has an entrenched, albeit small, niche in this market, 2) there is a very large market (number of people) who cannot afford traditional IVF that the company can cater to, 3) it's not that the company needs to convince such patients but really they need to "sell" medical providers (doctors) on the procedure because it is doctors who will drive the sales, and 4) from a broader trend perspective most developing country now and more so over the coming decades face declining populations, so any puplic policy efforts to support the problem will create a favorable backdrop as IVOB builds its business. I view my investment in IVOB as speculative at this point, but if the company continues to gain traction one step at a time, the current market cap of less than $3 million could turn out to be an incredible buying opportunity with incredible upside for investors in at this level.
The date is now November.
Still a great product and a large global market for infertility. At a current market cap of just a few million dollars, this stock is significanlty undervalued relative to the global market potential. IVOB management is making progress expanding the business, but it is taking some time since they do not want to give the company away in order to get more funding.
This stock will have a stealth bull run this year. The company is making progress building its business, slow and steady wins the race. There is a huge global market for a low-cost IVF alternative, and INVO has comparable pregnancy rates to traditional IVF. We could very well be at $1 by year-end if business momemtum picks up, particularly if the company secures funding for the U.S. FDA trial requested by the Agency for 510(k) clearance.
$0.18+ and trending up. If you are looking for an investment beyond a short-term flip, ADXS is where to be. I am confident this hidden gem will be a game changer in cancer immunotherapy. DNDN opened the door with the FDA. ADXS' vaccine is just as safe with early indicatation (Phase I trial) that its efficacy is on par with or will exceed Provenge. Two Phase IIs currently in progress, with survial data from the India Phase II trial scheduled to be released starting in late summer. The mean survial for late stage cervical cancer patients under the best available treatment is six months, while ADXS' Phase I trial generated a mean 1-year survial. 2011 will be a huge year for this company. GLTA
The trend of the last few stocks pitched by Eric Dickson of Breakaway Stocs (KNKT, HHWW and now AVVC) has been to run up to around $3 before peaking. Up, up, up...
This is a positive development. A lot going on with ADXS. Two Phase II trials currently in progress, with incremenal survival results expected to be released by the company on the cervical cancer trial in India late Summer 2011. ADXS is largely unknown to the general investing community at this point. I expect this will change as the year progresses. Perhaps we have another DNDN in the making IMO.
Interesting Opporunity
I bought some shares on Friday. Relatively low float and share count. The company produces a concentrator technology to solar panels, which is an interesting new idea to the solar market as it will not compete with solar panel manufacturers but instead partner with them and lower their cost structure.
I disagree completely - I don't think you have your facts straight.
While the Finance company would certainly like to get shares sold to them as cheap as possible, IVOB clearly benefits from a higher share price. The financing agreement is for $10,000,000 and at the time of the agreement IVOB limited its share issue to 8,100,000, which equated to $3,726,000 (the share price then was about $0.46). The lower the share price the less cash IVOB gets, and if IVOB decides to release more shares that action requires another SEC registration.
Language from the financing agreement:
"The Company currently intends to issue and register approximately 8,100,000 shares of common stock under the REF. The entire share requirement for the full $10,000,000 would be approximately 21,739,000 based on current market prices. However, the Company has decided to limit itself to 8,100,000 shares available, or $3,726,000, based on current market prices. If the Company’s share price rises, the Company will be able to draw down in excess of $3,700,000. If the Company decides to issue more than 8,100,000 shares, we will need to file an additional registration statement with the SEC covering those additional shares."
Regarding your second point about the Compnay turning around and re-selling the shares to the public, this can't happen under a price placement so there is no risk of "normal end of year
tax loss selling could accelerate if people fear
this low trading volume stock cannot absorb any
new net sellers."
See the language below from the financing agreement.
"The securities sold in this transaction have not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”) and may not be offered or sold in the United States in the absence of an effective registration statement or exemption from the registration requirements under the Act. IVOB believes that the issuance of the foregoing securities was exempt from registration under Section 4(2) of the Act as transactions not involving a public offering. The facts relied upon to claim the exemption include: (i) the purchaser represented that he purchased shares from the Company for investment and not with a view to distribution to the public; (ii) the certificate issued for unregistered securities contains a legend stating that the securities have not been registered under the Securities Act and setting forth the restrictions on the transferability and the sale of the securities; (iii) the purchaser represented that he is an accredited investor and sophisticated and is familiar with our business activities; and (iv) the purchaser was given full and complete access to any corporate information requested by them."
Regarding your point about financing costs far exceeding near term revenue, this is a biotech company, which is par for he course to get this company up and running. The share count, even after factoring in maximum dullution, will still likely be under 100,000 shares, which is reasonable.
Long IVOB