Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Could be 5 years before we see $5 again
Commons getting Cancelled is still a major obstacle most investors aren't able to look passed
Can anyone explain the downward pressure on Freddie Mac Commons? Why are the Preferred shares outperforming the Common shares by so much?
Is there a Rotation out of Commons?
Carlos is known for creating an alternate reality. His Twitter posts are meaningless. Although, last I heard Carlos has been nominated to lead the Average Joe lemmings right to the slaughterhouse.
Rumor is they've even shared the SEC Letter regarding the Warrants with him. Maybe Carlos will release the letter for all of us to see?
Aren't all the Preferred lawsuits useless and going to fail? That's what the Average Joe's have been saying for several months.
I'm confused, are the Preferred lawsuits good now?
And since they're being brought by Preferred holders, do you think they will allow their own shares to be wiped out while Commons take everything?
There's a lot of confusion, flip-flopping, and cherry-picking going on here.
Starting to think the Average Joe's really are just clueless and running with the first thing that pops into their head until something better pops up.
Are we still severely under-capitalized / borderline bankrupt? Wasn't that supposed to change today as per Carlos?
Maybe we will up-list before the weekend is over, at least as per Yahoo Finance and their exceptional track record of accurate financial data.
Carlos has unraveled the mystery! Truly a genius.
You should join Cayne FHFA's/Treasury's Defense team since you have an incredible way of spinning everything to fit your own narrative.
It will be interesting to revisit all your posts next year when everyone realizes there is no magical escrow account with the GSE's money.
#MOELIS
The real question is, did we up-list too? Finally, the day has arrived and everything has aligned. I can finally buy my Camaro and move out of my grandparent's basement!
I placed my sell order at $79.50 as I don't want to be greedy like some Average Joe's
Did the Average Joe Plan get an update or is this a new plan? It's hard to keep up with all the new "plans" being proposed as of late.
As long as Commons get $100+, that's all that matters; otherwise, it's not a fair or balanced plan
Is Carlos pumping Common so he can Rotate into Preferreds? I had not thought about that possibility; however, he has been extremely vocal lately (new blog posts, increased Twitter activity, etc) and we know he's deep in the red on his Common position.
That actually makes a lot of sense. Another Average Joe Rotating into Preferreds.
With the Warrant over-hang, you have to factor in that earnings will only be ~30% of what they used to be. So let's assume $9-$10.50 is where we would expect FNMA to trade.
However, that's not factoring in any additional capital raises, which are likely going to occur. I think $6-8 is a safe bet for the next several years, and that's a fairly modest valuation.
The Mods should sticky your posts and replace the out-dated junk they currently have stickied. You always have a thorough analysis with material that can easily be referenced and verified.
The board needs more posters like you. Thank you for your effort in helping educate the Average Joe's.
If? It was already swept earlier this morning. Sweep, Sweep, Sweep ... And not the floor, just the GSE's capital.
Confirmed here: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Documents/Market-Data/Table_2.pdf
Who needs airbags anyway? Surely not Mel.
Is that when the Escrow funds get released back to Fannie & Freddie? Or are you saying today's payment is the last NWS payment the GSE's will ever make?
Yep, another $900 million sent to Treasury today. Recap is pushed off until next Q at the earliest. Thank goodness all of these payments are being held in an Escrow account waiting to be returned to us. It's a real relief knowing this money is safe and sound.
Moelis is THE plan. There's no other plan worth considering at this time as Moelis is the only one that gets the major players to the table and gets capital committed to the GSEs.
Agreed, there's only a few bad apples, but they are the most vocal and need to be called out on their shenanigans.
Also agree that those buying at these prices will see equal, or possibly greater than, returns to Preferreds.
But due to uncertainty, Preferreds are still the safer bet from just about every perspective.
Make sure all the "Plans" pay Commons $100+. That's a very important piece of all the alternative "Plans" we should propose.
Maybe we should call an impromptu shareholder meeting this weekend to discuss things further? We can call it ...
The Cancelled Common Shareholders Club meeting -- In the Average Joe's Treehouse.
When we lose the Bhatti and Collins cases, do you think we will see sub-$1?
Reverse Stock Split seems to be gaining traction amongst the Average Joe's. Is reality setting in?
People are paying to read real posts
We can discuss tomorrow after another $900 million gets sent to the Treasury. The self-proclaimed GSE experts will surely be able to weigh-in on how that is a net-positive for the Twins since this money is all going to a magical escrow account waiting to be given back, LOL!
Surely we will up-list over the weekend as well. Maybe we can even hold an emergency shareholder meeting that Preferred holders won't be allowed to attend and we can go over the details of the Average Joe Plan and the Fair & Just Plan.
Prepare for another $900 Million to be Swept to the Treasury, as that's what's going to happen tomorrow.
Looks like the Severely Under-Capitalized classification will continue at least through Q3.
Great trading opportunity coming up! A BIG move is going to occur. Which way is the question on all of the Average Joe's minds.
Count on at least a 20% move in the next ~3 weeks. Trade it!
Moelis is still the best plan put forward. Anyone expecting "fair and just" is living in another universe. You won't find those words in the Government's dictionary/vocabulary.
It's time to accept reality as it is -- the Treasury and FHFA F*d us in A* and we need to deal with it.
Hopefully they just stop F*ing us. Asking for anything beyond that is just wishful thinking.
Any chance we see $2 again this year? That would be ~33% from these prices. Still a long ways from the 100% we need to get back to where we started the year, but that seems like a long-shot at this point.
I'm hoping Mnuchin's announcement of Moelis will at least get us back above $2. Us Average Joe's need to catch a break.
Indeed, Capital Structure 101-- Bonds, Preferreds, then Commons
You can show them your Cancelled Share Certificates. I wonder if they will let you in then, LOL
Last I checked, cancelled shares don't have voting rights either.
Us Preferred holders are thankful that Mnuchin will take care of all of these important aspects before Commons get their voting rights back!
Don't recall their shareholder meetings ever being open to the public other than the call-in number that was provided. Votes must be a majority, so us Preferreds aren't concerned with a few obnoxious Average Joe's on i-hub.
And to bring a vote, you would need the Board's consent. I doubt Average Joe's will be able to manage all that when they will only own a fraction of the companies after the Warrants and Capital Raises destroy their ownership. Good luck though!
Only ~$100B in dilution. No risk at all! Carlos should keep the lemmings heading in the right direction (Commons) while the major players keep scooping up Preferreds. Hehe
#MOELIS
The problem with that "plan" is simple really. What happens if the economy hits another Recession and the GSEs need capital? So halfway through recapitalization, Recession, and then another bailout is required since taxpayers would still be on the line -- SOMETHING MNUCHIN SPECIFICALLY SAID HE DOES NOT WANT.
No, the right thing is to recapitalize them immediately. If they "fail" again, then shareholders get wiped out. There's too much risk to a long-term recapitalization. It must be swift, like Paulson said "they won't even hear their heads hitting the floor."
It's gotta be that fast, maybe even faster than the initial decapitation.
Are people paying to see what I wrote again? Wow, that's an honor. Weren't you just bragging a few days ago about how my posts were un-stickied and replaced with some Average Joe pumping?
Ahh, how quickly the pendulum swings. Now people are again realizing my posts are the next best thing to the Gospel and are stickying and paying to promote and distribute them to the masses.
This is glorifying, truly. I will continue to praise Moelis and spread truth to the world of Fannie & Freddie! Thank you everyone for your support!
Holding Common Stock in Under-Capitalized Companies is INSANE! It's obvious Capital Raises and Dilution will need to occur for the companies to get out of "under-capitalized" status. It would be unfortunate to realize this after the fact when $100+ Billion of dilution comes raining down on Commoners.
Help your Average Joe's out by pointing them in the right direction -- Embrace Moelis and Rotate
SEC Letter declaring Warrants illegal will be released. That's what I've heard from a few Average Joe's. But, I don't think that's going to happen since the letter doesn't even exist.
It's more likely that Moelis will be announced rather than the Average Joe's accomplishing anything meaningful besides Twitter and I-Hub rants about lawsuits and greedy hedge funds. All while demanding $100+ (or $1,000) per share. It's sad really
The good thing is, there are REAL plans being floated by FHFA/OMB and things are looking up, even for Commoners. Just don't expect to cut in line in the financial structure, it doesn't work that way. Average Joe's need to GET IN LINE!
Thanks for stickying this post. It deserves to be at the top.
Sure seems like there's a steady Rotation from Common to Preferred. And now the fear of a Reverse Stock Split is spooking Average Joe's as they come to the realization the only way they may ever see double-digits is via a split.
When does Ackman's next report come out? I'm curious if he has Rotated further into Preferreds as well.
Another day of Common => Preferred Rotation
Prepare to be shocked, utterly. Today was pre-cursor of what's to come -- more down-side and probably new lows.
Seeing Corker and Stevens tout this plan as "Great" and "Corker-Warner 2.0" just means they know something the Average Joe's don't.
Save some money to "Average Down," because the price is going to keep going lower.
Roughly 50 Million Dollars entered $FNMAS today. Navy, can you do a quick update on the volume of Commons versus Preferreds? Today would be a great day to compare share volume, dollar volume, and price action.
Never mind, I will save you the trouble. Looks like all the money left Commons and went to Preferreds today based on the volume and price action.
That's a lot of GREEN across the board. WOW!
No wait ... there's more:
Ohh .. My .. God. Can someone please stop the Rotation!? If only there was an SEC Letter stating the Warrants are illegal to exercise. Maybe that could help the Average Joe's. It's probably too late at this point.
Moelis is coming. Expect the Warrants to be exercised and Dilution via the incoming Capital Raise(s).
Didn't realize people were paying to see my posts. I guess the information I provide must be valuable.
Roughly 20 Million Dollars exited Common shares today. On a day the potential end of Conservatorship was announced. Let that sink in.
It's no surprise Analysts have a $0.01 price target on Commons.
Corker & Stevens are both applauding this Proposal. That does not sound good at all. If I wasn't 100% Preferreds, I would be s#!tting myself right now wondering what they know that I don't.
I hope the Average Joe's don't get shafted by POTUS and Mnuchin, but it sounds like a possibility now that Corker is mouthing off about Private Gains and Public Losses.
If I were an Average Joe, I know it would be much better to get Moelis instead of this proposal.
Let's see what tomorrow brings -- likely more RED.