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For some weird reason Lynx don't offer trade for shares on the Oslo stock exchange though. I guess they might accept the OTC-shares, but not the Merkur-shares. If I remember correct it Saxo might be persuaded to sell of shares from OTC (but not Merkur), but they were phasing-out SIAF *sigh*
I guess I have no other choice than to wait til the dividend is declared and then make a joint effort with all the other norwegian shareholders and mail-bomb Nordnet and others to force them to avoid the force-selling :)
If it takes "some time" to transfer, then it doesn't seem very wise with the current downwards spiral if the plan is to sell them of at Merkur with a profit since the stock-price at Merkur might be lower by the time the stocks are transferred.
The problem isn't selling them, but that Nordnet, Netfonds etc will force-sell them against my will. If I can find a broker who supports both SIAF-ME and SIAF, and who will not force-sell Tri-Way, then I'm happy. As of today Nordnet say that they most likely can't support the stock and will force-sell, and Netfonds refer to Nordea if the stocks will be force-sold.
Does anyone know how many shares Jordanfonden has? And whether they are holding, increasing or decreasing? Plus whether those shares are Merkur and/or OTC?
I tried contacting Avanza about the dividend-shares, but they replied that they only offer trading in swedish-stocks for non-swedes. I guess I have to move to Sweden! lol Nordnet answered that they most likely will sell the dividend-shares, and that they can't hold them. Netfonds referred to Nordea. I don't get why it should be so difficult for them to at least hold on to the Tri-Way shares, I don't want to sell them (assuming that the stock-price of SIAF increases at least somewhat that is - if it doesn't then I can sell of Tri-Way and buy SIAF and still hold the same (indirect) ownership of Tri-Way)
Sorry for replying to an oldish post, but no; I've contacted quite a few and noone has a good solution for the Tri-Way shares for norwegians.
However, noone knows what will happen and are waiting to see. The closest I've found is Saxo bank, at least they trade on Hong Kong, but they don't accept shares on Merkur or OTC... I hope (...) that we will be able to either keep the shares (untradable) or transfer them (Saxo or other places), but so far the replies are that the most likely scenario is that the dividend-shares will be sold against our will :(
hmm The question then is how many of Avanza's 2,8 and Nordnet's 2,3 that are OTC-shares (these numbers might not be updated since new year though). Do you think they will reply if you ask how many shares they have and how they are distributed?
Yes. For me the goal of a share buyback wouldn't be to support the stock-price, but to increase the true value of each outstanding share.
Generally speaking I'm not to fond of a buyback, since buybacks often occur when the stock price already is higher than the book-price pr share. It isn't necessary a bad thing, but in those cases I would much rather see a cash dividend.
In SIAF's case it would, as you point out, just ad to uncertainty - which is something that we do NOT need at this point. IF they wanted to do a buyback, they should NOT state that they WILL, they need to state pretty clear that they MIGHT and that it will ONLY occur if they deem the stock-price to be extremely low AND the cash-flow allows for it. And maybe also that the numbers of shares bought back most likely will be very limited. Then they could do whatever they want - and maybe even surprise the market with a big buyback - without the market being disappointed.
I don't find it likely to occur in the near future though, but I would love to see it happen before the stock price skyrockets (but not before they are sure that there will be a successful listing of Tri-Way)
I agree, it's just my wet dream :) If (...) they want a share buyback, then it will be when the cash-flow is sufficient to do so - which it is not as long as Tri-Way isn't listed and SIAF is spending all it's money on further growth. And, as you point out, they should focus on what they have promised.
I would love a buyback at this stage; I do NOT think it will be of significant help to the stock-price (prior to a successful listing of Tri-Way), but considering that the stock-price is only a fraction of the true value of SIAF then a buyback will strongly increase the value of my current shares. This will NOT help the short-term investor - to that only a dividend will help - but I don't see myself selling of my SIAF-shares in the next few years anyway, so a buyback of shares to a price of say 1/10th of the value is a good business deal (disregarding short-term cash-flow of course).
Hey, SIAF could buyback shares - announce a monthly cash dividend - and sell back the shares after a rise in the share price to pay the cash dividend with the increased stock-price (although they might need to have pay out the cash dividend for a while before the stock price rises considerably).
Hope that was less confusing than my last post :)
Jikes. Yes, I've double-checked; 11,92 million shares.
How does the transferring of shares from OTC to Merkur work, i.e is there something we - or SIAF - may do to prohibit the transfer?
I don't think a share buyback, at this point, will help the stock-price considerably. The stock price reflects peoples fear that this is a fraud, and I don't think a buyback will disprove that SIAF isn't a fraud. The only thing that will disprove that is a dividend, either a decent continual cash-dividend, or a successful listing of Tri-Way and a proven valuable share-dividend. If it does affect the stock-price, then people might take the opportunity to get out without a major loss, stalling the stock-price increase.
However, in terms of long-term shareholder value, a buyback will be of very valuable considering that the share-price is just a fraction of the true value of SIAF - hey, it's even lower than the expected value of Tri-Way-shares. I would love my share of SIAF to increase without me buying more shares :)
My dream-scenario, since I've stocked up quite a lot, is a buyback now that the market still is afraid that it's a scam, followed by the Tri-Way-shares dividend (which might give a (temporary?) spike in the stock-price), and then a continous monthly cash dividend.
I don't know how often it updates regarding the number of shares, but today it shows that there are 11,92 million shares on Merkur. I have no idea what number it was say two months ago.
Well, I did sell 1500 on the opening. Not a lot of shares, but still part of the butload on the open.
Didn't see until now the crazy amount that was traded in the close :o
At 14.43 if I haven't mixed up the time-zones (14.43 New York time)
I bought 1000 at 2,10 today (I also sold 1500 at 2,20 as well, as well as buying on Merkur at 18,60 and 18,90 earlier today).
Who knows. However, if everything fails then SIAF still has an option to increase the share price; stop investing the EPS and start paying dividend.
If Tri-Way fails, and there is no dividend to correct the stock price, then there is no limit how far down the stock price can go :(
However, I'm wondering who's selling. Is it market makers trying to scare long-time minor investors to sell, or is there actually new shares being traded.
Exactly. Say they declared a cash dividend of 0,25$/share - that's 10% of the EPS (disregarding the value-increase from Tri-Way). Not a big hit to the cash-flow (but might be difficult now because of Tri-Way and such), but it would still be a cash dividend of more than 10% of the stock price.
Or, like some companies, 50% of EPS, i.e 1,25$/share (disregarding the added value from Tri-Way) - a cash dividend of 50% of the stock price :o If they then declared that this dividend would be a monthly dividend, then the stock marked would be FORCED to rise the stock price - if not immediately, then after some months (or at least after a year).
The buyback wouldn't mean too much for the share price as long as people are afraid of SIAF being a scam.
I'm a new poster and a new investor - yay?
A cash dividend would have done wonders for the stock price - preferably a monthly uninterupted cash dividend. If they stop investing and spend some of the EPS as a dividend, then even a small portion of the EPS would do wonders.
I would also like them to do buyback, but that might not have done wonders for the share-price. I thing the market-price is a combination of lost-patience and a fear of fraud. A buyback would not counter the fear of fraud, but it would help for the EPS :) Hopefully they will open for a buyback and then, as soon as they have a cash-flow that allows (and doesn't compromise the Tri-Way IPO) buyback a lot of shares (imagine the book value pr share if they bought back shares until the stock price rose to say 5) and THEN declare a monthly cash dividend.
Any idea how many short shares today?
The Swede; Do you have the name of the Nordnet employee? I have contacted Nordnet Norway as well and they say that the most likely scenario is that they will force-sell the Tri-Way shares. I've pretty much begged them for keeping the Tri-Way shares, but I have not gotten the same answer as you. I wouldn't mind not being able to buy and sell shares, I'm planning on keeping them for a long time anyways.