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He might have. We won't know until next Q. That's the scary thing about hoping Ackman is Common's savior. You're always going to be behind and find out what he did after-the-fact.
Guess we will have to keep guessing he's still invested in Commons since we don't know for sure.
It clearly says "May" and not "Shall," so it's safe to say this was optional and not mandatory for Watt. Review our current legal predicament and the use of the words May/Shall and you will find you have run into a dead-end from the Court's perspective. There's absolutely no way anyone could ever challenge this and get a legal victory.
Sorry to say, this isn't the hidden GSE Escrow account. It doesn't exist! I'm arguing with you, and yes you are wrong.
Any updates on the Treasury's GSE escrow account? I'm hoping they will disclose all of the NWS payments are still being stored safely and waiting to be returned to the GSEs.
Being happy about a loss that effects shareholders of both classes equally shows how out of touch with reality many of the Average Joe's really are. Talk about being willfully ignorant.
They must think the government is just going to admit their wrongdoing and reverse everything to benefit the Spectators/Speculators.
If we lose the last few remaining lawsuits, it's safe to say Commons will have no standing and the price will reflect that reality.
Preferreds will still have Perry and their Contract Claims, which will be hard for a court to ignore.
The likelihood of Preferreds being made whole while Commons get Cancelled is now higher than ever. I fully expect Commons to make new lows and Preferreds to rally as Average Joe's Rotate after realizing their days are indeed numbered.
They're going to Cancel the Charter, so you shouldn't rely on what it says in the Charters
Treasury doesn't owe us anything as per HERA. Let's talk about the Capital we will need to raise via equity offerings, because the GSEs aren't going to get any money back from the Treasury.
We will be lucky if they consider the Sr. Preferreds paid off. Don't expect them to give a penny back to the GSEs, especially when the courts have said the FHFA can do whatever the F* it wants.
WOW, it's $112B now? All that dilution is really going to hurt. I was thinking $100B, but it seems to keep going up. They have to sell a lot of shares at these prices to raise that much capital. No bueno
Commons are probably worth a trade at $1.25. We'll probably get there on Monday with the over-hyped Bhatti case now turning into a loss.
The more capital that will be required for the GSEs to be released is actually a bad thing for Commons. Having a high capital requirement means they have to sell more shares to raise that capital. Ask Carlos about that.
Bhatti a loss. Judge Schiltz was a shill. Monday is going to be painful for us Average Joe's
Thank goodness Preferreds have Contract Claims. Otherwise, this investment would be a total loss. Contract Claims are the only thing for us little guys to hold on to at this point.
The risk of Commons being Cancelled just went up drastically. Ouch!
Bhatti a loss. Judge Schiltz was a shill. Time to write this investment off as a loss. Monday is going to be painful
Seems our legal avenues are all but closed. Our only hope now is for the Government to do the right thing, which is a long-shot at this point.
At least Preferreds have Contract Claims. All other legal routes are now closed.
The likelihood of Commons being Cancelled just sky rocketed
Is Judge Schiltz just another Judge Ginsburg?
These "Judges" all seem to have a hard time understanding the complexity of our situation.
Assuming we lose both Bhatti and Collins, there's a good chance we see sub-$1. That will be a good chance to buy some cheap shares.
There is a good buying opportunity coming up. Until we get real news, it's best to sell the pops and re-buy lower as we won't be able to hold any gains without concrete information from the Administration.
Not a recco
Some Analysts reiterated their price target of $0.01 for Commons. Talk about Worthless Junk. But if their Charter does get cancelled, the Analyst's price target is probably pretty accurate.
We should encourage these Analysts to review the Average Joe Plan. They are clearly missing the potential value here. Then again, their price target is a lot closer than many of the Analysts on this board.
Teetering on Support. Possible gap down on Monday. If we break $1.40, expect to test $1.25 again. It's looking like new Lows will be the Big Move i called for.
Average Joe's just can't catch a break, but hopefully they traded this last pop and can re-add at lower prices.
Any new Congressional Endorsements for the AJ Plan? A lot of us are counting on those endorsements to come through to fruition. Can you ask Jeff/Carlos to give us a quick update on where the Senators stand?
With the price of Commons languishing and nearing the brink of a break-down to new lows, getting a few more Average Joe Supporters would surely help the price.
Please put forth an effort to help us all out. Maybe we can even up-list this weekend as per Yahoo Finance.
$8 is pushing it. $5-7 is more realistic. $8 by 2022 surely seems possible, but it depends on the restraints placed upon the GSEs via a Utility Model.
Utility Model is probably the best case scenario for Commons now. It will severely Cap earnings potential, but at least it will allow prices to appreciate ~5x from current levels.
Beyond that will be limited as Utilities have a maximum amount of profit that will be regulated by the government.
Looks like Commons are indeed Capped, just as Preferreds are Capped at Par Value or slightly over depending on when Dividends get turned back on.
Trying to balance out the moon-boys/$100 PPS claims. As i've mentioned several times, i think Commons and Preferreds will perform roughly equally from these levels. Commons will need a lot of luck for that to happen, and a whole lot more luck to perform better than Preferreds. Luck is not an investment strategy, and neither is Hope -- this is likely why you continue to see the Rotation occur.
Having the security of Contract Rights is what allows Preferreds to sleep well at night. Commons should still be shaking in their boots knowing Corker and Stevens have endorsed the latest Proposal from the White House.
We should probably update this chart, but it's still pretty accurate (Preferreds now up a little more and Commons down a little more):
The Charter Cancellation show is about to begin! Can someone remind me how adding competition and removing the GSE's federal charter is a good thing for shareholders? Man, Moelis was so much better than this garbage, but it looks like we're about to get the shaft.
Can that Accumulation/Distribution line go any lower? Maybe into the Negative? Is that even possible? Holy Crap! That's a lot of selling. If it goes any lower, they might need to re-write the algorithm for how low the line can go.
The Charter which allows the GSEs to do business the way they have for the last few decades? Ohh right, that Charter!? Sure, i'll include the link to the Proposal to Cancel the Charter below along with a snippet for your reference.
Why is it bad? That should be self-explanatory. The Proposal also discusses adding Competition via more Guarantors. I'm not sure how that's going to benefit the GSEs whatsoever since that means less earnings/profit. But you guys can keep trying to play it off like it's not a big deal, when it certainly is a BIG DEAL.
Careful with that popcorn, we don't want you to choke when you read the Proposal.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Government-Reform-and-Reorg-Plan.pdf
Maybe there's a Letter confirming the Escrow Account that the SEC only sent to one GSE investor. There was a recent rumor suggesting this possibility.
I was hoping someone here would verify its existence, then we can all rest easy knowing those NWS dividends are safe & sound waiting to be returned to Fannie & Freddie.
Several Average Joe's are posting about the Preferreds an awful lot lately. I'm starting to think more than a few of them have Rotated since they can't seem to stay focused on Commons any longer.
They should be taking this time to crunch the numbers in regards to the amount of dilution that's going to be required to get the GSE's Capital to the required level. I think we are still in the $100B ballpark.
Hopefully the GSEs can do the equity raise in tranches so it doesn't come pouring down on the Commons all at once. Either way, there will be a significant over-hang of new equity for a long while which will suppress Commons' price for the foreseeable future.
Can the Mods sticky this post? Thank you for clearing this up for everyone. Hopefully DDD will take this information and share it with Carlos so he understands.
Charters getting Cancelled = Bad News for Commons.
Preferred Holders are running all the lawsuits. Average Joe's are just coming along for the ride. What they end up with, no one knows.
It seems likely both Commons and Preferreds will see 3-5x from current prices. Since upside is capped even for Commons, the security of Preferreds' Contract Rights makes the decision on what to buy very easy
Maybe I should update my alias to Charters_Cancelled.
That's the logical first step towards Commons actually being Cancelled. Can't run the GSEs through Receivership until the Charters have been eliminated.
Some folks here are trying to claim it's a positive event, LOL!
Are we getting ready for the real fireworks? GSE Land is about to get exciting. The big move is likely to occur this week or next.
Cast your vote:
1) Back up to $1.60 to test resistance
2) Break down to new Lows
So you're factoring in a 1-for-100 Reverse Split? For every 100 shares you own now at ~$1.40, you would then get 1 share back and the stock would be valued at ~$140 a share. That would make sense since a Reverse Stock Split is the only way Commons ever see triple-digits. In fact, it doesn't even seem likely Commons will hit double-digits without a small reverse split.
I don't see them doing 1-for-100 though. Maybe 1-for-10, so Commons would reverse split to ~$14 based on today's price. This would at least put them in the position to up-list; however, that's not going to happen while they're still under Conservatorship. So we'll need to get out of that before we can up-list. And we'll need to end the Net Worth Sweep and also eliminate the Sr. Preferreds to get out of Conservatorship, so I wouldn't be too worried about up-listing until these things occur first.
Let's see if the 4th brings any fireworks to the GSE's, especially now that Trump has endorsed a Plan that would eliminate the GSE's Charters (yikes!).
FNMA below the 50-day still. Looks very weak. And we know a BIG move is coming as per my post last week. If we break below $1.40, you better hold on to your socks because they are about to be rocked!
New Lows looking more and more likely with each passing day. I hope some of the Average Joe's used the last pump to Rotate, because the PAIN looks to be coming!
Reminder re: the Big move that's coming: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141860031
Eliminating their Charters is Awful. Does Trump endorse this garbage!?
All the protections in the Charters is what was holding things in place. Without the Charters things could get really ugly.
This looks really bad for shareholders. They put this out on a holiday week intentionally.
Agreed. Whether it takes 10-20 years doesn't matter to Common shareholders. At $3-4 billion a year in retained earnings, it will only take a few decades for the GSEs to become capitalized.
And don't bother bringing up the imaginary slush fund. No one actually believes that exists except you.
The alias was derived from the unlikely possibility of the actual event occurring. While still improbable, no one can definitively rule out Commons getting Cancelled at this point in time.
Once the Treasury and FHFA make their final move, I will retire this alias and return back to my cave. However, I will of course need a few days to gloat about my ability to have seen things before they occurred and rub it in the faces of the Average Joe's that told me I was wrong for months.
Definitely agree. Moelis gives Commons a significant return from current prices. Assuming we stay around $1.50, Preferreds and Commons will likely see an equivalent return on investment, ie: ~5x.
At current prices, I think it's safe to say Moelis treats all shareholders equally and Commons could certainly benefit significantly more than Preferreds over the long-term once everything normalizes.
Moelis is the most fair & balanced plan put out and it takes care of all the guesswork. Everything is laid out in black & white.
Convinced the Warrants will be exercised. ZING!
Funny how so many Average Joe's continue to grasp at anything to help with their confirmation bias. Rather, they should just face the facts and own up to their poor decision making skills. As Commons continue to sink into the abyss, the cost of Rotating is getting more and more expensive.
Time is running out! Tick Tock, Tick Tock ... #Moelis
$3-5 seems reasonable considering we're all bottom feeders who bought in after the Conservatorship was enacted. I think Commons could see higher in the long-run, maybe 5+ years from now they could see $8-10. But in the near-term, $3-5 seems fair & balanced.
There will be a significant amount of dilution Commons will have to churn through before they can get any upward momentum (you definitely won't see a Short Squeeze here with all that dilution overhang). Looking back at how Citi traded after their Preferred Conversion to Common and Government Dilution, Fannie & Freddie likely have at least 12 months of sideways trading ahead.
See kthomp19's most recent post. The information you need is there.
Best to wait for the Shock moment upon announcement of Warrants being exercised and additional capital raises being required. I could easily see Commons having a massive 30% swing on that day, which will create a huge buying opportunity.
Over $100B Needed for Recapitalization. Prepare for Dilution of existing shareholders!
Sorry, but there is no imaginary Escrow account holding the GSE's dividend payments. Warrants will need to be exercised and capital will need to be raised via equity offerings.
No announcement, so we are still Critically Under-Capitalized. Seems bankruptcy is still on the table until FHFA decides to change this classification.
I hope Carlos knows what he's talking about. Some of his posts could be considered Penny Stock manipulation since he was saying this re-classification would definitely occur on July 1st.
Does anyone think Carlos was just talking his book so he could dump the pump and continue his Rotation into Preferreds? His Long Common position is deeply in the red now and he needs a 100% move up just to get him back to his cost basis. Odds are more in his favor in Preferreds rather than Commons
Does this suggest FHFA is merging with Freddie and Treasury is merging with Fannie? Or is it the other way around? I'm a little confused and your analysis and insight would help me understand how Fannie sending the Treasury $900M is the equivalent to "Zero dividends paid."