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Are NITE, CDEL, CANT and ETRF brokers for minor shareholders (like Avanza and Nordnet) or institutions that (supposedly) own shares themselves? If the latter; maybe someone wants to ask SIAF whether they actually owned the shares they've been selling or if they're shorting?
It does seem rather strange, the never-ending spiral that suddenly has gotten a boost of 5% pr day no matter how many shares that are sold.
However, if Avanza and Nordnet are the main buyers there might be problems for the shorters - unless they are able to scare the minor shareholders, i.e if we're able to hold still, then they're in for a major treat...
For SIAF it probably wouldn't help the stock price significantly at this time, but - disregarding cashflow - it would be a good investment for SIAF regarding the low P/E.
I didn't catch what they meant by the audit, but they did say that it was about Tri-way and that it needed to be in place before August 31st.
Regarding Tri-Way; We might be waiting till August 31st?
Just relistening to the last CC, and at 35:40 they say that an audited report on Tri-Way must come on or before August 31st, and that it will be on SIAFs website once it is completed.
I agree that cash dividends are the cure we need - hopefully we will get a third party revised statement regarding the dividend shares of Tri-Way as well (i.e confirmed pre-IPO sales or something), and an ex date for those shares that is in the not-to-far-but-not-to-close future (allowing the stock price to rally because of the dividend shares) in addition to a cash dividend (hopefully a monthly dividend, but at least a quarterly).
I haven't reheard the CC lately, but the Q1-report states
After maturing businesses and demonstrating scalability, and COSO steps are
realized, SIAF, “the parent,” is expected to become a more streamlined and flexible
company. As development capital expenditures become the responsibility of the
“children” companies, SIAF expects to increase free cash flow with the intent to
distribute it in the form of cash dividends and/or a share buyback program
True. As long as Solomon doesn't decide to keep all the cash-flow from the carve out, then SIAF can announce a cash dividend as soon as they know the results and when the cash-flow will happen.
I wish they would take more of an effort to communicate though. Freely after Dan's (?) statement from last Q; in SIAF's case, no stone will remain un-thrown. That is true, and the management needs to adress it; if she share-price is unfair to SIAF, i.e treating SIAF different than other companies, then SIAF has to act differently.
For instance; SAGA just announced a major cash dividend (50% of it's shareholder's equity) and they had an extraordinary meeting on july 4th that approved the cash dividend. However, there is no news about the ex. date or payment date. From my understanding however, in Norway they have to wait 6 weeks so that potential creditors may forward their claims, so the ex date might not be announced until that deadline has passed. In SAGA's case this is not a major problem, i.e the stock price hasn't spiralled downwards, because the market trusts SAGA. If it had been SIAF and not SAGA then I think the stock would have started to spiral downwards because of the mitrust from the market, and I'm afraid the management would not communicate with the market the reason of the "delay". I don't think Solomon understands how strongly the market distrusts SIAF, and therefor he doesn't act correspondingly :(
I hope you're right, but without knowing the practices of the company very well I would assume that they waited til Q2. However, they did announce the a successful carve-out only two weeks prior to the FY 2016-report, so I guess they might announce a cash dividend before the relevant Q-report.
T-23? You will not give him time until the Q2-report?
There should (...) be some news in the Q2-report, hopefully scaring the shorters away, but you never know :(
Since the transfer to Merkur happens at a "slow" rate (by that I mean steadily over time and not all the shares at once), I guess we can assume that it's NOT a major shareholder that is dumping it's shares?
Something has changed on Merkur at least; From January 1st this year and through June 27th the highest traded volume in one day was 107k, the second highest was 84k and the third was 58k. For June 1st till 26th the average seems to be sub 25k, but the past 7 trading days (excluding today) the daily volume has been between 46k and 171k with an AVERAGE of 84k, i.e the second highest volume from January 1st till June 27th...
12,04 million shares on Merkur today.
And at the same time the stock price on Merkur ends up, while OTC goes down. Who's selling so cheap on OTC? *sigh*
Don't freak out if OTC starts with -5% dragging Merkur down. The big gain will not happen until there is some news regarding dividen shares, ex dates etc
Nordnet is all over the place in regards of force-selling, holding or what-not regarding the dividend shares, so they might be all over the place regarding the dates as well - although not very professional to indicate a time-frame if none is given to them by siaf
If (...) Nordnet has gotten this information from SIAF and is sharing it with some of it's customers, then this information should be shared by SIAF at the Q2-reports next month - I don't think I would have dared to sell my shares in SIAF planning to buy them back during the year or before the Q2-report if I had gotten information from Nordnet confirming a date. Sure, the stock price has been in a downward spiral and might continue to go down 5% several more days, but what happens if you repurchase just a little to late? ...
11,99 million shares on Merkur now...
However, now the shares are cheaper on Merkur.
What's really strange is that the stock price has gone down 5% pretty much each day, and that the "day of" for OTC didn't change a thing for Merkur. Is someone deliberately trying to force the stock price down by 5% each day?
No need to be angry or sad; assuming it's not a fraud, then it's just a time before the major pay-off. Also; the mismanagement is what allows us "late-comers" to benefit from the great gain, there wouldn't have been a great gain for us if the management hadn't messed up in the past.
An official ex date for Tri-Way, verified by a third-party, would do wonders for the share price as well :)
Monthly dividends are somewhat common in the US, although not something Norwegian companies do.
Hopefully they'll give a monthly dividend - the more time between dividends, the more market makers can abuse the stock.
hmm It sounds strange that SIAF would give that information to Nordnet before to the market, but let's hope it's true - or at least that the information will be public soon.
You have to make a placement by phone? That's strange; I've bought quite a bit of shares on OTC the past months, and I still place my order like any other share (althought there is less information on SIAF than other shares, and there's a delay as well)
Merkur is open today - actually, opened this very second, down another 4% (so far)
Checked again this morning, before the opening of the stock exchange, and now it shows 11,95 million shares (!).
OTC closed at the same price at Merkur yesterday, and now we have to days of trading on Merkur before OTC opens again - as of now it seems that the Merkur will open down (although you never know), i.e it should not be money gained in transferring stocks from OTC to Merkur at the moment - although that may mean that someone will DUMP the price on OTC tomorrow...
From what I understand it also takes some time (a day or some days?) to transfer stocks between the exchanges?
Just got a reply from Lynx...
The good news is that forreigners are allowed to open an account with them, and that they offer trading in OTC.
The bad news is that they do not offer trading on Merkur.
VPS doesn't show the exact number of shares, and I don't know how often (or when) they update the numbers, but now (1 hour after closing) it still shows 11,92 million shares (they don't show any more digits)
Thanks for the replies.
What about the stock being completely removed from the stock-markets (going in the black?). Can that happen if the majority (of votes or numbers) want? In Norway you are required to give an offer if you buy more than a certain number of shares, but I don't think you are legally allowed to force the minority to sell - even if you manage to get the company off the stock-market. If I remember correct, then someone on this forum mentioned that as a risk (the risk, I assume, is that it's a scam and that's how SIAF would go around).
True. Assuming that they SIAF isn't deliberately lying in the balance sheet regarding inventories, deposits etc (speaking of inventories; in Norway you have to book the lowest of the cost producing and the market value, not sure how it is for SIAFs case) then the only thing that can be floated in the book value is the plant/equipment, construcion in progress and land use rights (not sure to which degree if I agree that land use rights should be a part of the book value - can they be sold or is it just a competetitive advantage?). For 2016 this totalled 279MUSD, so even if we say that this is worthless (which of course is way off) then the shareholder's equity should be many times the market cap (425MUSD vs 50MUSD or whatnot).
I haven't looked deep into the megafarm regarding it's true value vs cost, but even if you're wrong and the value of the megafarm is less than it's cost (and thereby a somewhat floated book value), it seems to me that SIAF still is traded WAY to low.
Ah, so regarding delisting you were referring to being removed from the stock exchanges by the stock exchanges?
Please think of the word "scam" when I used "fraud" in my post, i.e whether Solomon is luring people to invest money in something that's not real so that he can take our money and flee.
To mee the stock price reflects SIAF as a scam, but I don't think it is. The book value might (or might not) be floated compared to reality, but even if it is I believe the current stock price to be only a fraction of what it should be - it must be criminal to book values at 10 times their true value, and I don't think Solomon&co are criminals or scammers.
Hence I'm "all" in and for a long term.
I might have been a bit unclear - with the partially scam/floated number I meant that the current price/book isn't real, but that there is growth potential for SIAF (especially Tri-Way) and that SIAF's TRUE value - down the line - still will be far greater than the current stock price.
Can you explain why SIAF can't be delisted? :) I'm not familiar with when a stock can (or cannot) be delisted (against minority sharesholders will)
I too think that SIAF could be bigger than the carve-outs, so I have no plans on selling my shares after the Tri-Way carve-out. The stock-price will have to increase a lot (or the carve-out happening to a much lower price than esimated) before SIAF turns out to not be bigger than the carve-outs, since it will retain 50% of the carve-out shares (that will not happen before Tri-Way at least) - in addition, like you pointed out, SIAF still has licensing deals etc.
Yes, that is one of the things that I found in favour of not being a fraud. Basically, the only thing that suggests a fraud is the low stock price - but that is somewhat expected with the dillution of shares in 2012, 2013 and 2014, the long timeline before shareholders get their return on investment, a CEO in full control, operating business in China etc.
Price/book isn't always a good estimate anyways, especially not for companies that invest a lot of money. At least in Norway there are rules of how the book value of these investments should be, a percentage of the original investment. For instance; during the time with high oil prices a company could have a low book price and perform amazing (since the old riggs had a book value close to zero) while now a company with a high book value might do bad (since the market price for new riggs are lower than the book value). For SIAF the book price can be way of and still be a good investment.
Well, not necessarily a scam - they can spin of Tri-Way because the numbers for SIAF is floated (and still give us a decent return on investment). Hence, as you put it, being a scam is a very large grey area.
I agree with you - stay away from the stock if you think it's a scam. I did make up my own mind and decided to invest, but the "it's too good to be true" haunted me a bit so that I kept my investments somewhat low (10% of my investments). I then continued to research SIAF and found good historical reasons to why the stock price was to low, but D'Alessandro's 5% was the "drop that made the bowl spill".
I might have to do some rethinking if turns out that the massive sales during the past months is D'Alessandro dumping his shares (i.e loosing faith in the company and taking a heavy loss), but if D'Alessandro sells out to take profits AFTER a successful listing of Tri-Way I don't think I would care - by then SIAF would have proven, once and for all, that the "it's too good to be true" doesn't apply (just like Frontline, Bakkafrost and SR-Bank - sometimes things that seems to good to be true, actually are true). After all; at the estimated valuation of Tri-Way SIAF would still retain values in Tri-Way exceeding the current stock price.
Yes, I too would love to see a decent return on my investment tomorrow, but SIAF works a bit different (and, in my opinion, is the main reason to why the stock price is so low). I will probably be frustrated and annoyed if there is no short term return on investment, i.e if there is no cash dividend if the listing fails, but the main return from SIAF is in the long term.
lol Yes, Nordnet doesn't make much sense in this regard :( I'm a bit surprised, because I perceive Nordnet as being a broker that goes the extra miles for it's customers - not so much in this case it seems
It all boils down to whether SIAF is a fraud or not...
We can talk about the share-price, market makers and manipulation of the stock (which is interesting, and might also be valuable in terms of timing further investment in SIAF), but for me it all boils down to one thing; whether SIAF is legitimit or not.
In my option we have three alternatives;
1) SIAF is a fraud - if so, then the stock price will continue to decline until it's value reaches 0 (well, maybe close to 0 - there might still be some true value in SIAF even if it is a fraud)
2) SIAF is partially a fraud/the numbers are inflated - in this case the listing of Tri-Way is crucial; say for instance that the TRUE value of SIAF today is 1$/share, then a successful listing of Tri-Way (at indicated levels) will increase the true value to approximately 5$.
3) SIAF is not a fraud - here the successful listing of Tri-Way isn't that crucial. A successful listing will increase our value - and faster - but if it's not a fraud then the true value of the company is so many times more than the stock price that we have room for an enourmous error of margin. It may take time for us to get the profit, but if the listing fails then SIAF - at some point - has to stop investing and start with dividends. Might be late this year, might be next year, might be i 2030, but it will come.
Of course; I haven't had the long and painful journey with SIAF that many of you guys have had (I reentered the stock-market this year), but we're getting close (or "close"?). For me the clue to SIAF is to make a decision; either you're in it for the (possible really) long run, or you're not in at all (you can of course change your strategy and withdraw with a profit (IF the listing succeeds), but with the downwards spiral SIAF has your original mindset has to be longterm).
I know that several of you have done some really deep research into SIAF, and personally it was the knowledge of D'Alessandro's 5% that changed my investment in SIAF from a small part of my portfolio to (close to) all-in. Hey, better spend my mid-life-crisis-money on SIAF than on a car, right? lol
Please feel free to post your thought's and research :)
Ah, my bad. How hard-core long-term investors are they?
That would be perfect. I haven't asked Nordnet that question, but I did ask my old broker (Netfonds) to which they replied that they didn't know and that I had to refer with Nordea. I don't understand why this is so complicated, it SHOULD be very easy for Netfonds/Nordnet to ask Nordea (or whoever) to transfer the stocks they can't hold (if they can't...) to a broker that actually CAN hold (and trade) them *sigh*
That's interesting. How does it work? Quarterly update from Nordnet about the price? And a small annual fee? (many brokers charge 0,1% for keeping stocks). I would be perfectly happy with that solution since I wan't to hold on to the stocks anyways (and then I can transfer Tri-Way to another broker if I want to sell them)
Regarding Tri-Way shares for Norwegian stock-holders.
Thanks for your reply people, but I think Nordnet is rather confused; I told them that swedes had gotten the message that they could keep the Tri-Way shares although not trade them, and the reply I got was that Nordnet Norway had heard the same rumour, but that it wasn't true - Nordnet has to treat it's customers equal disregarding which country they live in.
Nordnet says that they can't hold the shares, and that the worst case scenario is that they'll be force-sold. Although they don't really know yet.
For you that can read a scandinavian language (or use google translate), here is the transcript from my continuous nagging with Nordnet (in reverse order);
Nordnet;
Hei.
Ikke noe problem, forstår at det er uryddig (noe som det faktisk er).
Jeg har også hørt dette men det stemmer ikke. For det første så kommer vi til å kjøre samme løsning for alle nordnet kunder uansett om de er svensk eller norsk. Slik at det som står stemmer nok ikke. Men utover det så har jeg heller ikke noe mer informasjon utover det jeg allerede har skrevet egentlig.
------------------- Original Message -------------------
ME;
Hei
Beklager å mase om det samme igjen, men ser på et forum at noen svensker har fått tilbakemelding fra Nordnet om at de kan få beholde sine utbytteaksjer i Tri-Way selv om den noteres på Hong Kong og at Nordnet vil oppdatere kursen kvartalsvis. Er det en mulig løsning i Norge? Ser at vi er en del som ønsker å beholde disse utbytteaksjene og folk er fortvilet over at de kan bli tvangssolgt.
Nordnet;
Hei.
Det er ikke sikkert dessverre. Ofte så vil villkårene for slike ting offentliggjøres etter ex-dag og det kan ta veldig kort tid å få gjennoført dette.
Men man skal kanskje ikke se bort ifra at de nye aksjene også blir notert på et annet marked (f.eks. Nasdaq OTC, eller en av børsene i Europa) isåfall så vil det mest sannsynlig ikke være noe problem å beholde den nye aksjen. Dersom det ikke er tilfellet og vi må selge aksjene så vil det skje som et kontrollert nedsalg fra vår side og det vi har rutiner for hvordan vi skal gjøre det. Slik at vi kommer til å beskytte verdiene dine, slik at salget blir over en periode for å unngå å presse prisene i aksjen.
------------------- Original Message -------------------
Me;
Hei
Takk for rask tilbakemelding. Har du noen formening om når dere vil ha en avklaring? Fortrinnsvis før ex. dato :) Ser at det er flere på Shareville (og andre forum) som ønsker å beholde aksjene, og/eller som er redd for verdireduksjon til disse utbytteaksjene dersom alle utbytteaksjene skal selges.
Nordnet;
Hei.
Det er ikke noe som er bestemt enda fordi vi vet ikke hvordan våre bankkontakter vil håndtere denne hendelsen. Det er også begrenset med informasjon om denne carve-out'en også som gjør det vanskelig for meg å vurdere dette ytterligere.
Men worst case scenario så blir aksjene solgt ved notering, da vi ikke kan holde de men hvorvidt de blir solgt samme dag eller over en periode det vet vi ikke enda.
------------------- Original Message -------------------
Me;
Hei.
Sino Agro Food (SIAF) er i ferd med å skille ut deler av virksomheten sin i et nytt selskap (Tri-Way) som skal noteres på Hong Kong. Deler av disse aksjene vil bli utbytteaksjer for aksjonærer i SIAF. Siden Nordnet ikke tillater handel på denne børsen, så går det rykter om at Nordnet ikke kan ta imot disse aksjene og at disse aksjene derfor vil bli solgt og at vi dermed får dette som et kontantoppgjør. Stemmer dette? Vil det i så fall gjelde både for SIAF på Nasdaq som for SIAF på Oslo Børs? Etter hva jeg kan se så har Nordnet 10% av aksjekapitalen i SIAF, hvilket betyr at det er et betydelig antall aksjer i Tri-Way som i så fall vil bli dumpet på Hong Kong børsen ved notering, hvilket vil presse prisen på disse og dermed utbyttet (i tillegg til at det kan være interessant å beholde disse aksjene uavhengig av prisfallet pga salg)
Not a very substancial amount for a fund then. It would be interesting to know if it's members has a substancial amount, especially if they are dead-hard long-term investors. Is the downwards spiral small shareholders panicking, or is it investmentfirms trying to make other people panic...
Oops, my last post for today. Sorry for seizing the feed today.
Strange - the finnish website is different than the dutch one. Well, I'll send them an enquiery and see what they say. If they accepts norwegians to trade (Merkur, OTC and HK) then they might see a new flow of customers unless Nordnet changes their minds :) Thanks