I was, and good work!
Oddlot

HD: just curious. Do we know you from the old CS, or not? Would appreciate your old handle if you dont mind.
Oddlot

FXE SPY GLD with FXE in the target zone, close half of SDS, DZZ, and sold all of EUO.
Oddlot

GLD DZZ closed half of DZZ at 5.21

GLD DZZ closed half of DZZ at 5.21

FXE closed EUO. FXE is in the target zone. This has implications for gold and equities.

FXE is in the target zone. Closed EUO. This has implications for SPY, GLD, and most everything else.

GLD obv overlay

nat gas industry FCG

SDS took partial profits at 17.45

SDS closed half of position at 17.44

SPY SDS closed half of SDS at 17.44

OBV overlay

Bliss: your phasings are wrong, as indicated by the direction of the halfwave MAs for most cycles up to the 20 week. See the chart. Also, apologies for including the wrong chart in a prior post. Good luck, Oddlot

I dont move the mkt, neither do you. But look out below. Target of 126 SPY is open and 123 is pending. The LT channel around the 4.5 yr MA is horrifying and points out that sub 700 is a reasonable low for next 18month low in March2013. Are you going to play the long side all the way down??? Look for low in June-July and good bounce, then we go down down down.
Good luck, good trades.
Oddlot

Me to, but front running of signals leaves you in limbo if the setup is not completed.

SPY SDS added to SDS with SPY at 132.19.

SPY SDS added to position when SPY hit 132.19

SPY SDS add to SDS if SPY trades at 132.19

Bliss: according to your "phasing" almost everything is going up. However, one of the main Hurst concepts is the halfwave MA and the fact that the change in direction occurs halfway through the move, which allows for a projection of objective. There are objectives way under the mkt, and a break of the MA200 ( which has not happened yet) will coincide approx with change in sign leading to objective of approx 1230. Check out the chart with your moving average lengths and see what you think.

Holding bearish SDS and DZZ (gold) positions.

SPY a break to 132.20 would not look good. Sell signals beginning to come, after reaching +200 on CCI. Trend down, so this is the kind of setup you want.

SPY SDS reinitiated bearish position in SDS 17.17 with SPY approx 131.35.

***This board is NOT for penny stocks.***
Oddlot

LKB: one other OBV approach is this. It appears that short term OBV is a proxy for price, and trendlines etc and signal from those types of TA seems to have a following in that volume increases and price moves rapidly on most of the signals. Try your favorite methods on both 1minute and 5minute charts and see what you think.

IMHO, a lot of the information in OBV is obscured if you use a "long" timeframe. Use the shortest time period that will show a long enough chart to give reference points and trends.

Oddlot

It works. I am just too stupid to follow it.

It combines two approaches which must agree in order to maintain a position. First is ID of short term cyclic extremes and violation of them sets the trend with higher highs/higher lows logic for an uptrend. Extremes are ID by the alignment of the CMAs.

The OBV component has two parts that usually signal together. The range of the OBV over 3.5 days sets boundaries, and violation sets trend which maintains until opposite side is violated. The second part is a Bollinger with one deviation channel, and violation sets the trend, until the opposite side is violated.

Both cyclic and OBV must agree or position is flat.

Additional positions can be taken however you want. One that works is requiring the stochrsi and cci to agree on short term potential high, and then enter on cci signal. On the 5 min charts I use cci128 and stochrsi210, both of which are geared to the 5 day cyclic period.

The strength of this system is that is quick to spot trend turns, and will stay in through most of it. The weakness is that in a choppy market there are false signals. Welcome to trendfollowing.

This was quick and dirty. Let me know where your are confused.

Oddlot

One more nail in bull coffin: spy/gld ratio has been uptrending for nine months, but no more.

Oddlot

OBV system: still smarter than I am.

DZZ added more at 5.06, waiting for equity crash.

SSO closed long at 49.50. Not working, new lows

SPY signal from OBV trendline says buy. SPY has met the swing objectives and due for rally. Also very extended in relationship to GLD, and holding equal dollar bull/bear via SSO and DZZ.

DZZ SSO added to both with total position equal dollars. DZZ 5.06 and SSO 50.35

SPY GLD all prices are relative. The SPY:GLD intraday chart (30min, 30 day) with 5day(65) and 21day(273) bollingers monitors the relationship between equities and non-fiat money. Until today the ratio was pushing the upper 21day boundary as gold fell faster than SPY. Today saw a dramatic change as the ratio dove towards the lower boundary. Given downtrends in both, and swing obj met in SPY, I closed SDS and replaced with DZZ (a -2x gold etf). I expect gold to resume the decline and SPY to find some support; when the ratio returns to overbought, I plan to switch gold money back to SDS.

Sorry, no charts from my phone. Will try to post some later.

Regards, Oddlot

I am very comfortable with short side, but my swing obj was met and I covered. The ratio SPY:GLD has swung to where long SPY and short gold makes sense, so I replace the SPY with DZZ, a -2x gold etf.

Good trades,
Oddlot

Rationale short gold: the ratio of SPY:GLD fell sharply as GLD rallied and SPY sold off. Levels approaching the 20day bollinger were seen, and without trend long SPY and short gold would make sense. However, SPY is in downtrend although target met, and gold has been in horrible downtrend with more to come IMHO. So, the conclusion is to be short gold and await a rally in SPY to reshort.

Hey, if that is seems weird, I do have a username to live up to!

Oddlot

Rationale: target met. If one is concerned re short term noise affecting the measurements for a leg count, one can use a centered short term MA as replacement for price. If done, the high at 140.80 to low at 135.60 then swings down to a range of 132.20-131.20. This was met today and the bear position in SDS was covered.

GLD DZZ bot initial unit of DZZ, -2X etf for GLD, at 5.14

GLD DGP closed half of DGP and will close remainder on further rally in gold. Closed SDS earlier because of this ratio approaching the other side of range.

SPY SDS closed SDS at 16.97.

Re spx/SPY, my posted interim target is 132.5-133.25 SPY but expect 127-128 afterwards. There should be a significant low this summer (Bradley turndate early June, cyclic low nominal July). After a rally, decline should resume to ultimate lows in March2013, and ultimate may be followed by more decline. The channel enclosing the 4.5 yr cycle is declining, and the lows could easily be near SPX 700.

Good luck and good trades.
Oddlot

HaHa re SONC: IMHO the obv advanced steady while price declined and then recovered, which is a definite positive, but the balance sheet stinks. Debt/equity is over 10:1; rev has declined at 4.5% per yr rate over last 5 yrs, and q/q perf was horrible in that sales were almost even but eps down over 95%. Unless there is a hidden story, which may exist, I would argue strongly against buying this stock at this time.
Oddlot