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Let the dilution, Utility Model, and Reverse Split all sink in. Once the frustration from Average Joe's causes real capitulation selling, that will be the time to buy. Until then, Commons will continue to drift lower.
Buy Commons when Moelis is officially announced.
Not a recco
Should we file another lawsuit? FHFA didn't adhere to the proposed schedule. Shocking!!
Are we still expecting $1,000 per Common share?
I guess we should all be happy with the continuous price drop. It just means we could see even higher returns than Preferreds. However unlikely that may be.
If the price gets down towards $0.50, the potential for Commons to have a greater ROI than Preferreds will start to become a possibility.
Did anyone else reduce their Common exposure today? It's getting way too risky without Contract Rights. I sold most of my trading shares. Will re-buy around $1
That's just the deadline for comments. It has nothing to do with implementing anything meaningful for the Twins
Utility Model is the only way forward now. It Caps Commons potential price, but that was expected. Funny, Preferreds upside is now significantly more than Commons.
I think we'll see a strong Rotation after this ruling. No reason to gamble on Commons any longer, the writing is now on the wall.
The Average Joe's put up a good fight, but it was not meant to be. Maybe if Carlos writes another blog post that gets 15 views he can turn things around? Nah, that won't matter.
It's Game Over for Commons and the Average Joe Bag Holders
This is not horseshoes or hand grenades. Close doesn't matter. A loss is a loss, and we were just handed another one.
Commons' wooden leg has almost been fully knocked from under them. I can literally see Average Joe's wobbling on their last leg.
Hearing rumors of another Court loss (Collins). This might be the reason for today's sell-off. These court cases are more important to Commons than Preferreds at this point since Perry already ruled Preferreds have Contract Rights.
These last few court cases are the only things Commons really have going for them right now. If we lose them, it's over for the Common investment thesis. You can throw it right out the window, as that would indicate KBW's $0.01 Price Target for $FNMA is probably going to get hit.
Commons might gap under $1.25 tomorrow if Collins is a loss
This doesn't look good. Another TBTF Banker on our Board? You Commoners should vote this guy out ASAP. Oh wait, you don't have any voting rights.
What are Common Shares good for nowadays? Maybe you can use them as Fun Tickets at the State Fair or Circus. You'll have to get physical shares though.
Commons don't get to Vote on these things!? I thought you guys were going to hold a big Shareholder Meeting and not invite us Preferred Holders. But now I see your Common shares have no rights at all, NONE!
What good are Commons if you don't even get to vote? Worthless Junk indeed.
At least Preferreds have Contract Rights! And with things heading the way they are, Contract Rights might be the only determining factor with regard to who gets any money out of these Cash Cows besides the Treasury.
Get that popcorn ready folks!
That's usually a good Sell Signal for Commons. When the Average Pumpers are all out, it's time to run for the hills. Being down over 50% makes you do dumb things.
Their desperation is clearly showing the last few days.
500k Short Block! This is escalating very quickly. Will FNMA's recent Lows hold or will we make new Lows?
Carlos' new blog post must have helped wake up a few of the lemmings, LMAO!
Mel Watt continues driving Commons' Car without airbags. The Average Joe's are finally coming to this realization after reading Carlos' most recent blog post. That really helped put things into perspective for the Common bag-holders.
I'm just glad Carlos pointed this out clearly in black & white for everyone to see. As per HERA, things don't look good for Commons.
Dead Cat Bounce was all we were seeing. FNMA is a Dead Cat Walking. If you turn that chart sideways, you can practically see the Cat, and it's definitely Dead.
Can Common stock get down-listed any further? I've heard of something called the Grey Sheets, which seems to be where Commons are heading. Then the Naked Shorting will really go through the roof. Let's hope that doesn't happen
Has anyone filed that lawsuit to prevent Berkowitz from Shorting Commons? We could really use it now.
TIMBER!! Sub-$1 is the next stop. Average down and sell the pops, because this sinking ship is taking on water fast! KBW Analyst's price target is $0.01 ... Worthless Junk, indeed!
This was such a great call. We all knew it was going down, well most of us did.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141860031
More Court losses on the horizon = sub-$1 for Commons. Get that popcorn ready, the show is just getting started!
Not a recco
#MOELIS
Is this the week FNMA breaks down permanently? Teetering on support. Lack of volume, lack of interest. Most of the discussion has shifted to Preferreds.
It's obvious the Average Joe's are on the verge of collapse after re-thinking their investment thesis. Once the Rotation goes full tilt, Commons will be sub-$1.
Don't be the last one out and get left holding the bag.
A lot of discussion about Preferreds. It's good to see some of the Average Joe's waking up to the possibility of Commons being Cancelled.
It's "Preferred / Preferable". Makes you go Hmmmm
Have you shared this information with Plaintiffs' Council? This would be such an easy argument to plead, the Judges would have to listen. I can't believe our Legal Team didn't realize this sooner!
HERA is a legal document and this information is extracted from HERA. Therefore, a legal authority would have to see things your way.
Maybe you should be a Lawyer, or a Judge?
/s
... and not an ...
Short Commons, Long Preferreds continues to be the winning trade. I don't see that changing any time soon, especially with the uncertainty of Reform. Not to mention, the upcoming bailout that will be required.
If they require another bailout, it's likely they will wipe out the shareholders for good this time. We'll be in a Recession, so the Government will have the Court's blessing to do whatever they want. In that case, Commons get Cancelled and Preferreds get the remaining scraps.
Clock is ticking. Need resolution by Q3 2019 or it's game over man, game over!
Great buying opportunity on the Preferreds. A whole lot less risk plus they have Contract Rights in case things go south in the economy and the Twins need another bailout. If that happens, Commons get Cancelled and Preferreds get the remaining scraps.
Commons maybe see $40 if NWS is reversed and the GSEs are released. Let's be realistic.
Show me some math as to why they would be worth $300. Their previous range was $50-75 on average.
And having everything reversed is as unlikely as Congress implementing the Average Joe Plan.
Bhatti's Judge Schiltz said FHFA is Constitutional.
"The court also held that even if plaintiffs had standing, FHFA’s structure is constitutional. Bhatti at *5-8; see FHFA Br. 46-55."
http://www.glenbradford.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/17-20364-00514550976.pdf
Agreed, time is a major risk right now. If we don't get this resolved soon, we will be in a Recession in the next few years. That will give the Government cover to do whatever it wants again.
This time around, I fully expect them to wipe everyone out. Commons definitely get Cancelled in that scenario and Preferreds only get scraps. Everyone loses except the Gov, Average Joe's get the worst of it
Bag Holding does have its tax perks! That's for sure. Either you can write off the loss, or you get long term capital gains.
I'm not sure what the Average Joe GSE investors are going to end up with. Probably just carry-forward capital losses for the next few decades after throwing away their life savings
Oh No! Looks like we need another Bailout. That's going to be more capital raises (dilution for Commons) or they'll bury us with more Sr. Preferreds, which makes Commons completely worthless!
https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/why-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-may-need-more-bailout-cash-from-treasury-department?brief=0000015a-382f-d09d-a7fe-feafb2c90000
Great news indeed! That Recap is going to be a doozy though. ~$100B is going to hit us hard and fast. How will that affect earnings per share once we factor in the Warrants being exercised as well?
Can't build houses without trucks. Can't securitize mortgages without houses. GSEs are definitely next on the list!
It's all coming together now.
Common Securitization Platform just got an Upgrade, UMBS or Uniform Mortgage-Backed Security. Everything seems to be going against us lately, and now this. The hits just keep on coming
Someone should file a lawsuit to stop this from happening.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-11/uniform-mbs-proposal-may-raise-costs-for-americans-pimco-says
Ackman's Letter from the SEC shows the Warrants will be exercised and Moelis is the Plan. And you can take that to the Bank.
Looks like Ackman's dumping is suppressing the price again. The Rotation into Preferreds continues.
"The Warrants will be exercised" -- Steven Mnuchin. According to his recent Fox interview, the Warrants being exercised has already been confirmed
Ackman must've read it since he Sold Commons this past quarter. Read it and laughed at the ludicrous claims from the Canadian Average Joe.
An investigation into these false claims is warranted. Sounds like stock manipulation to me. I'm sure the SEC would be interested in investigating a foreign person suggesting they have a Letter from a US Regulatory body and making false claims in their name.
SEC has also written a Letter regarding Moelis? This really is a bombshell! Please share the letter with the board, we would all like to verify its contents.
Why would he put new money into Commons when he can buy Preferreds today and get Par in the Conversion? He gets more up-side and then also gets to participate in any price appreciation the Commons see down the road once all the dilution is over.
Not sure why this is so hard for a few of the people here to understand. It's really simple, i'll illustrate below:
Buy a $50 Preferred today at $10. Get $50 worth of Commons when the Preferreds get Converted to Commons at Par Value. You just made 5x your money and own Commons. Congratulations, you're now an Average Joe. You can now enjoy any up-side potential the Commons may have (maybe $1000 share according to some people).
I've offset my Common losses via Preferred gains. Now I'm up ~50% after being down nearly 35%. Glad I cut my losses in Commons and Rotated while I had the opportunity.
Will never go back to Commons again unless they go under $1 Only then will I consider it for a short-term trade.