Fully invested in secondary oils (100% long)
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usa, that larger channel isn't a problem as long as the "current upmove" channel stays intact IMHO... (so far, so good)...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
usa - RUT channel tops are...
5/09 602.92
6/17 648.19
7/12 674.33
and - RUT channel bottoms are...
5/13 578.44
6/28 628.31
and - RUT is currently trading mid-channel with plenty of room to run over 700 IMHO
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Chart - Dow Jones World Stock Index...
http://www.trending123.com/index/_djw.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
OLSSSR gives "buy signals" (16%) 2-days running...
http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/index1.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Noble Energy profit jumps 90.1%, tops forecast
(8:35 AM ET) LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Noble Energy Inc. (NBL: news, chart, profile) said second-quarter net profit climbed 90.1% to $137 million, or $1.87 a share, with revenue up 45.1% to $488.4 million. The profit, the highest in company history, topped Thomson First Call-compiled analyst forecasts of $1.81 a share. The independent energy company sees 2005 capital expenditure of $987 million, with production seen rising 42%.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Devon Energy 2Q net rises, authorizes further buybacks
(6:49 AM ET) LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Devon Energy Corp. (DVN: news, chart, profile) said second-quarter net income rose to $653 million, or $1.38 a share, from $502 million, or $1.01 a share, last year, following production growth and strong oil and gas prices. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $1.26 a share. Revenue rose to $2.5 billion, from $2.2 billion a year ago. The company also said that it has authorized a further buyback plan of up to 50 million shares and that intends to redeem its $400 million principal amount of 6.75% notes due 2011 for cash.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
why is it insanity if you are enjoying the same seaview as the people who paid 20 million?... would you prefer to live in Bakersfield, in spite of all your millions?... (you obviously didn't take the "google earth" tour I suggested)... all I can say is thank god for earthquakes, or almost everyone would move to California (the "golden state" with the world's 5th largest economy)
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
cash - those people are not paying for a mobile home... they are paying for a gorgeous view in a prime location... a regular home, including the price of the land, would cost tens of millions of dollars in that particular spot!... there are plenty of cheap homes in California, if you don't mind living in the desert, far from the ocean... (Bakersfield is a good example)... you can tour the state (and the rest of the world) with "Google Earth"...
http://earth.google.com/
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Odd Lot Sales/Purchase Ratio 1.51 (bullish)...
http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/index1.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
GEOI Chart - "blasting off"...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=GEOI
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
usa - the next major Bradley turn date is 8/30 +/-4 trading days... it could be your 20-week low... I don't think the uptrend channel will be broken very soon, because years ending in "5" are almost always extremely strong... so far, this year has been relatively weak, so it has a lot of "catching up" to do... periodic increases in the yuan/dollar exchange rate will virtually guarantee a steady increase in earnings for many US Corporations... (the oils)
http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
I think we'll "gap and run" on Monday...
July jobs data should cap strong week for Wall Street
By Mark Cotton, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:06 AM ET July 30, 2005
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks are expected to kick off August on a positive note amid hopes that the latest employment report and results from Time Warner, Nortel Networks, Sara Lee and others can help extend a five-week rally in equities.
MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS
U.S. economy in good shape, Fed's Yellen says
U.S. stocks end lower on day, up for July
Oil climbs to two-week high of $61 a barrel
H-P to quit reselling Apple's iPods
Wendy's surges on plans for Tim Horton's IPO, buybacks
"The market should have a good week next week," said Michael Malone, trading analyst at SG Cowen. "We saw a nice technical breakout over the last couple of days reaching new highs in many indexes. Importantly we saw this on good volume in what is historically a pretty slow time for the year. "
Stocks ended lower Friday but posted solid gains on the month as investors cheered what is shaping up to be an eighth quarter of double-digit earnings growth, backed by data showing the economy growing at a healthy clip.
Benign inflation data, reports showing the nation's manufacturing sector continuing to expand, and strong retail sales were some of the positive economic highlights for investors in July.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 64.64 points to 10,640.91 but wrapped up July with a gain of 3.6%
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 13.61 points to 2,184.83 but was up 6.2% for the month. The S&P 500 Index slipped 9.54 points to 1,234.18. The broad gauge rose 3.2% in July, its best month in over a year.
"There is a lot of money on the sidelines and investors are becoming increasingly confident that the numbers in the back half of the year won't be coming down," said Malone. "I think they will end up putting some of that money to work."
For Sam Stovall, senior investment strategist at Standard & Poor's, the market has "no reason not to go higher."
Stovall said stock valuations remain attractive and expectations are high companies could also see double-digit earnings growth in the third and fourth quarters.
Strong earnings season
With 74% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported their results, the second quarter is currently on track to post year-over-year earnings growth of 11.1%, based on data compiled by Thomson Financial.
"We're seeing more companies beat and fewer companies miss," said John Butters, research analyst at Thomson.
So far 69% of companies have beaten estimates while only 15% have posted results below expectations compared with a long-term average of 59% beating, and 20% missing.
"That's basically the trend we've seen over the last several quarters," said John Butters, research analyst at Thomson.
Butters said companies are beating estimates by about 4% versus a long-term average of 3.2% but a little below the eight-quarter moving average of 5%.
It is still a little premature to say whether U.S. companies are on a course to finish out the year with another two quarters of double-digit growth, although early estimates offer some room for hope.
"The growth rate for the third quarter is pretty much unchanged from where we were a week ago. We were at 15.8% last week, and it's actually ticked up slightly to 15.9% despite some negative pre-announcements," said Butters.
Should companies achieve another two quarters of double-digit growth, it would be only the third time in 50 years U.S. corporations have managed to post 10 straight quarters of double-digit growth.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
PCR/TICK/TRIN/bellweathers improving (bullish)...
IMHO the LOD is in, and it's
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Refinery woes lift crude near $61 (BP) By Myra P. Saefong
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Refinery accidents this week fueled concerns over petroleum supplies, lifting crude futures to a high of $61 a barrel in New York. September crude was last at $60.90, up 96 cents, or 1.6%. BP (BP) reported a fire at a unit located in its Texas City refinery late Thursday. "This is the time when refinery accidents can and usually do occur," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. And the "Texas refinery problem adds to speculation that there could be more troubles in other areas of the country," he said.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!! (fot oil stocks)
frank - yes, it's obviously a top... which means it's probably not a top, since "the obvious is obviously wrong"... Naz has reached long-term resistance, so it better correct now, or it's
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
"strong buy" signal, on latest OLSSSR...
Tuesday's odd lot short sales to total odd lot sales ratio was an un-heard of 19%... program trading was not a factor, because the only time program traders make odd lot short sales is during a "waterfall decline" (in order to avoid the "up-tick rule")
http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/index1.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Charts - "hot tech stocks"...
low p/e ratio, "blasting off"...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=LU
"island reversal bottom" rocket...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=AMZN
"bear-trap" is complete...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=INTC
"run-away gap" targets 25+...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=MOT
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Charts - "hot oil stocks"...
low p/e ratio, breaking out...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=CEO
wildcatter, warming up...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=PRFN
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
usa - I see the rising trend channel on RUT, and I see that the Naz will break out of it's long-term "ascending triangle" when it breaks 2200 (almost there now)...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
higher NDX close would be "strong buy" signal as "break-out" of long term "ascending triangle".... this break-out creates a target above NDX 3,000...
http://traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=38850
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
a lower close today would be bullish because tomorrow is a "minor Bradley turn day" and it is also "Thurday reversal day"...
http://www.amanita.at/e/faq/e-bradley.htm
and then Friday will be...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
BP second-quarter profits climb 29%
Results lower than forecast; plans $6 billion buyback
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:15 AM ET July 26, 2005
LONDON (MarketWatch) - Energy giant BP plc on Tuesday said strong oil and gas prices boosted second-quarter net profits by 29% and set plans to buy back $6 billion in shares during the second half.
EARNINGSWATCH
Norsk Hydro quartely profit higher on record oil prices
BP said profit rose 29% to $5.59 billion.
Replacement cost profits, a more closely watched indicator for BP that strips out the impact from changes in energy prices on inventories, also climbed 29%, to $4.98 billion, on rising energy prices and higher refining and chemicals margins.
The replacement cost profits were below the $5.5 billion analysts had expected, as charges rose to $826 million from $198 million in the year-ago quarter.
Of those charges, $700 million was set aside to cover compensation claims for an explosion at its Texas City refinery in late March that killed 15 people.
BP shares edged 0.2% lower in early trading.
It will pay a 53.55 cent per U.S.-listed share quarterly dividend, and said it plans to buy back at least $6 billion in shares during the second half.
Capital expenditure in the second half is expected to be $14.5 billion, with around $15 billion in 2006.
BP said oil prices are well supported.
"Prices remain supported by strong world oil consumption growth and limited spare oil production capacity," it said.
It said refining margins in the third quarter have been "very firm" but below second-quarter levels, while the outlook for retail margins remains uncertain, with a weak start to the third quarter.
BP said its Thunder Horse platform, which had been hurt by Hurricane Dennis, is now stable and trim, but BP won't begin production until any damage has been identified and repaired.
BP originally planned to have Thunder Horse operational at the end of the year.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Charts - VLO XOM CVX DVN PLLL PRFN...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=VLO
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=XOM
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=CVX
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=DVN
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=PLLL
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=PRFN
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
high/low indicator...
http://trending123.com/_nahl__.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Long-term chart - SIR, PCR, NDX...
http://mba.yale.edu/pdf/aggshortinterest.pdf
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Nasdaq short interest rises in June
Fri Jun 24, 2005 05:21 PM ET
NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - Short interest on the Nasdaq stock market rose in June for the fifth month in a row, according to figures released by the exchange on Friday.
The Nasdaq said short interest as of June 15 rose to 5.83 billion shares up from 5.71 billion shares on May 13.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen 5.6 percent this year to 2,053.27.
The Nasdaq's short ratio, or the average number of days it would take to cover the outstanding short positions, rose to 3.48 days in June from May's 3.11 days.
Short interest in the stock market is often a gauge of the level of skepticism among investors.
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A short interest ratio of less than 1 is bearish and more than 2 is bullish...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
tech - Naz is broader based than Dow30, and therefore much more indicative of the direction of the general market... GE has problems with the Varig bankruptcy, PFE has problems with viagra, etc... these problems are isolated cases which are not very relevant to the market as a whole.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Penny Oil Stocks - "low volume accumulation"...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=AMGO
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=APXR
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=PRFN
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
DVN Chart - "low p/e break-out"...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=DVN
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Charts - "hot stocks" to buy now!...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=GEOI
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=MPET
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=VLO
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=PLLL
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=ROYL
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=TRGL
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
cash - thanks for the great update!...
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
XOI Chart - "market leaders"...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=$xoi§or=
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
The price of crude oil rose for the first session in three on speculation that the revaluation of China's currency will lead to increased fuel consumption. “The Yuan revaluation has just taken 2% off the price of oil in China,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “The lower price may be enough to boost demand for petroleum products. This could be just the first step toward a more flexible currency policy, which could lead to greater consumption in the future.'' The Yuan strengthened 2.1% yesterday, making imports of crude oil cheaper for China's refiners because supplies are denominated in US dollars. Surging demand in China, the world's 2nd-biggest oil consumer, after the US, has helped spur a two-year, 91% rally in prices. Crude oil for September delivery rose 42 cents, or 0.7%, to $57.55/barrel at 10.21am on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, the September Brent crude-oil futures contract rose 62 cents, or 1.1%, to $56.34/barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
tech - Dow30 is "under-weighted" in oils!...
http://money.cnn.com/markets/dow30/
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
Chart - Dow Jones World Stock Index...
http://www.trending123.com/index/_djw.htm
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
IBM - "confirmation" of previous alerts starting at $76.55...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6736027
and $77.38
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6906140
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
IBM Chart - "island bottom"...
http://www.trending123.com/stocktable/stocks.pl?action=stockdetail&symbol=IBM
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!
China takes first step to revalue yuan
Washington hails shift to basket of currencies
By Steve Goldstein & Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:58 PM ET July 21, 2005
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Bowing to intense international pressure, the Chinese government on Thursday announced the first step toward revaluing its currency.
Members of the U.S. Congress have long complained that an artificially low yuan has boosted Chinese exports and hurt U.S. manufacturers.
The Treasury and G7 have been concerned that China's dollar peg was limiting foreign-exchange market adjustments to the large U.S. current account deficit.
Officials in Washington welcomed the decision and urged China to "fully implement" its new currency regime.
"China's full implementation of its new currency regime will be a significant contribution toward global stability," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a statement. Snow termed China's new foreign-exchange regime "a managed floating exchange rate."
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called China's move "a good first step" that would be followed by many.
"I look at it as a first step in a number of further adjustments as they invariably increase their participation in the world trading markets. And so I think it's a good start," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee Thursday.
Late Thursday, the G7 issued a rare joint statement praising China's foreign exchange move.
"This more flexible exchange rate regime will contribute towards global growth and stability," the joint statement from the G7 ministers and bankers said.
Thomas Dawson, chief spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, echoed the comments of Snow and Greenspan. China should "utilize fully the scope for flexibility in the new exchange-rate arrangement," he said.
In a statement released on its Web site, the People's Bank of China said it is dropping its yuan-dollar peg in favor of one tied to a basket of currencies. The government also lifted the value of the currency by more than 2% to 8.11 yuan per dollar; the dollar traded at 8.2765 yuan overnight.
"The People's Bank of China will make adjustment of the renminbi exchange rate band when necessary according to market development as well as the economic and financial situation. The renminbi exchange rate will be more flexible based on market condition with reference to a basket of currencies," it said.
Under the new system, the daily trading price of the dollar versus the yuan will continue to be allowed to float within a band of 0.3%, while the trading prices of non-U.S. dollar currencies will be allowed to move in yet-to-be announced bands.
The National Association of Manufacturers, the trade group that used its clout in Congress to whip up a firestorm of anger about China's fixed exchange rate, took a more wait-and-see attitude toward the new currency regime.
The NAM said China's move "is potentially of enormous significance, but much depends on how China's new system is allowed to work."
Economists said China was deliberately vague about further devaluation.
David Gilmore, foreign-exchange analyst at FXA, pointed out that in theory, at least, it could take only 33 trading days to get a 10% move.
The NAM added that it hoped China would make a significant revaluation by October. That is when the next Treasury Department report on currency manipulation is due.
Snow said that China's new foreign-exchange regime "creates a lot of room over time for significant movements" in China's currency.
Sen. Charles Schumer, Democrat of New York, a key critic of China's currency regime, called China's move to a basket of currencies "a good first step, albeit a baby step."
The senator's positive comments were echoed by other legislators who have been critical of China in the past.
Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch's chief economist, said China's move is significant because it should end the threat of a trade war.
"MELT-UP" TIME!!!