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IMHO, we are still finishing up the 3rd. I entered short here mostly because I expect surprises from the Greek parliament tonight. It is a safe bet given the extreme overbought levels we are at on multiple timeframes. VIX is back to 12-handle; the level of bullishness is just astounding!
Precisely! Tomorrow is the day.
The top is near: either today pm, or tomorrow morning. Target remains the same 2130-2132; it may overthrow a little.
IMHO, we in the final subwave C of the 5th wave up (ABC zigzag). It should end on Mon. The price target is still 2130-2135. Then, buckle up for the hard way down.
IMHO, that was only wave B, which just ended; it was a deep 61.8% retracement of the A wave. Now final C wave up to a slightly new high; my target is still 2130 before a trend change.
IMHO, we are finishing up the 5th wave of the C leg down - my target is 2072. Then ABC up to a new high.
Things are good at my end, thank you!
IMHO, wave B is complete, or almost complete. But, if we fail the 2104 pivot there may be something else in play and more downward movement for a target of 2070. Otherwise, wave C up for a target of 2132, and then DOWN HARD. Greeks have IMF deadlines tomorrow and on May 12. These may be catalysts for big moves in either direction.
Take care everyone, and happy trading!
Great call! Well, we breached the lower trend line briefly, but then reversed hard to the upside. I think that we go up for 3-4 more days for an upside target of about 2132. Next resistance is at around 2116, so if we gap up to that level on Mon we will pull back to 2102 (for wave B). Then, another 30 point advance for wave C, and that is it! When I look at the $VIX I see a similar setup to what happened in the first week of Dec 2014. After that, fast move to the downside for $SPY. I think that we will have a repeat of that setup as soon as $VIX pierces the lower BB currently at 11.82.
Have a good weekend everyone. It is good to be back!
2095-2105 by X-mas looks likely then?!
That is exactly what I am thinking too!
Best,
Algol
Sorry I meant 2030, for wave 2 down. I think we gap up to about 1965 tomorrow and then correct some 35 point down.
Sounds very good to me! Where do you think they will pin the $SPY price for OPEX tomorrow? I am thinking at 1930.
$RUT is breaking out to the upside; the rest of the market indexes will follow. I see a very near term top for $SPX at around 1960-1965 tomorrow, and then a little pull back to today's low (1930-ish). Tomorrow is the OPEX for the monthly options, so a pull back is a given. Then, the uptrend resumes on Mon to new highs - 2130-ish for the $SPX.
We did not get my downside target, but we have got the BIG bounce. I am looking to go short at around 2050-2055 sometime in early next week.
Beautiful set up! It needs to get worse before it gets better! Big bounce coming tomorrow once we fall off a cliff to the 1950-1960 area!
I am doing better health-wise, thank you!
It looks like we had a fake-out wave 4 upward today, and now we are in the early stages of the final wave 5 down. It should end at around 1950-1953 by 2pm (FOMC minutes) tomorrow. Then, a little Christmas rally into next week.
All the best!
Algol
By the looks of it, $SPX will correct down to the 1950-1970 before it bounces off. The turning point would be the FOMC on Wed of next week. Then the Santa rally everyone is waiting for. Just MHO.
Hope you are doing better health-wise!
Gap and trap today? It is last day of OEM!
FOMC minutes at 2pm tomorrow. IMHO, near-term top (2060???) should be put in tomorrow.
Finally some pull back, at least! Let us see how far it goes.
I think it is time to get on the PUTS side.
My thoughts precisely! Metals are yet to see a bottom; I would not be surprised if $GOLD falls bellow $1000/oz. As for the indexes, I see $SPX topping out at around 2044, perhaps in two more days. That is what my crystal ball says.
Happy trading everyone!
In addition to that, the precious metals are close to bottoming. If I remember correctly, the PMs bottom shortly before a top in the equity markets. I took a small long position is SLV today...
The gap up today will hold. I may be one day too early with my prediction for a top (2030-ish?). I will watch closely the early trading on Mon.
Almost there! IMHO, we peak tomorrow AM.
IMHO, this is fake out 4; there will be some more upward movement into Fri - EOM window dressing. No major correction until after elections next week.
I think sub wave 5 is done. (Sub wave 4 transpired as a triangle yesterday…) Now let us see if we get a trent reversal, or just an ABC correction. It is going to get wild again!
Subwave 4: the A and B portions are complete. Wave C down should take most of the day, and perhaps the first hour of tomorrow.
Subwave 4 has began. Should take about a day or so. Then final subwave 5 up to complete the move until about 2pm on Wed when the FOMC statement comes out. Everybody expects QE4. But, IMHO, it will not happen just yet.
We fell 2 points short of my upside target of 1964, but that should do it. We now have a complete 5-wave structure up, so let us go down for a while!
Sure, I am fine with 1964 as target for sub wave 5!
IMHO, last Wed we completed wave 1 down (2019.26-1820.66). Since then, we had a corrective wave 2 up for which the 61.8% retracement is at 1943.39. We are almost there! If we see a complete reversal today that erases all of the gains from yesterday, then wave 3 down is here.
My health is improving, thank you!
This subwave 4 lasted longer than expected and we almost hit the invalidation point by 0.7 points. But then this is OPEX Fri and there was a large open interest on the 190 puts. Let us see what happens in the remaining 3 hours of trading. We either reverse hard into subwave 5, or we continue higher.
Great work on the 15-min chart, Smurf! I agree that sub wave 4 is done, or almost done (I had a target of 1879). Now let us have another 70 point drop between now and tomorrow 2pm to complete the final sub wave 5! You gotta love the volatility during this past week!
Take care.
By the looks of it, my target will be reached tomorrow, or on Mon.
IMHO, there is more pain for the markets to come. Lost of folks went short into the close today, so let us start tomorrow's session with a gap up to about 1946-1950, and then more down movement to get to that 1903-1908 target by Fri.
The 50-day MA on the $VIX crossed above the 200-day MA two sessions ago on the daily chart. This is a very bullish setup. The $SPX should get down to test the 200-day MA on the daily at around 1903 sooner than later. I am in a bear mood until the $SPX regains the 50-day MA line.
The 50-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA. This is a bullish setup for the VIX
We did not quite reach my upside target, but I think that we go down from here, at least until 2pm on Wed when the FOMC statement comes out.
Alternatively, the first wave down could have needed yesterday, meaning that we are in a corrective wave 2 up to a target of 1986. Then, down we go for wave 3. I would be careful at this point...