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AFFY: nice move on the upgrade yesterday... we'll see where it goes. Still holding all...
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Yeah, looks like it kept it's gains for once... we'll see if it holds them or not...
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We have a Gapper winner!!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/MELA-Sciences-Announces-FDA-iw-3124896619.html?x=0&.v=1
I am guessing 7 tomorrow... ouch for the shorts.
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ASTM crazy ride today...
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ASTM 2.50 AH? sheesh
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Darn it!!!
My bad... :P
Hehe :P
Unfortunately, I believe they will be unhalted before 4pm, so neither of us will win :P
no position either...
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TANKER - RINO
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p.s. now please let it be halted until tomorrow, or after 4pm :P
bot some chtp for bounce.... seems like these bios often bounce a couple of months later....
Thanks, nice call on the 21! Only 4 cents off, so far :P
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Can't believe I missed LVS... from 48 to high 49's...
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Sold 30K CSCO, 20.58, +5600$
Sweet, out 30K CSCO at 20.58, +5600$
It seems like alot of times when these gigantic companies get beaten down bad, they recover... like SVNT and AMLN and all those others. Yeah, this wasn't a drug company, but this was a really massive beatdown for a company this size and volatility. Seems like those have to be played differently than the 1-drug biotech wonders. But we will see.
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Bought some CSCO premarket... imo a bit oversold, given it's historical volatility.
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GAPPER - AFFY
I am biased because I own some for a swing trade :P
But the rationale is essentially that they will announce their Pre-NDA meeting with the FDA outcome, and I think the FDA will allow them to file for hematide in the dialysis setting (70%) of the market.
The 10-Q out today said something along those lines. Personally, I think they have already had the FDA meeting, and are very close to announcing those results, which I am hoping is monday (lol)
We'll see.
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AFFY may be moving... if you look in the 10-Q out today, they said they plan to refile on the dialysis subset for hematide. We'll see what happens.
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Nice call on ALXA... was watching at 0.88... so close to buying when that 50K share ask popped up... but then it was gone.
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Bought some AFFY for a couple week swing trade... looks like coming off support at 5, catalysts in the near future.
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Nice grab!
nj! was thinking of buying some, but woulda shoulda coulda....
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Congratulations, AVNR holders!!!
I was sure that Feuerstein would come out with some bashing article filled with half-truths (again) this morning, so I was afraid of holding. Looks like I made the wrong decision to sell on friday AH.
Once again, congrats!
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Thanks, Momentum.
You know, this could have certainly gone the other way... I have to say that when I was watching it tank down to 1.50's I was praying to whomever I found holy that if I EVER got out of this with a profit, I would take a bunch out and pay off school loans... My prayers were answered and I admit I was about 2 seconds away from putting in a sell at market order... but I held off. After I sold it at 5 I kept my word and immediately transferred 100K$ out to pay off my friend Sallie Mae... :P
Definitely one of the luckiest trades ever.
If it had gone the other way, my 200K$ would be worth about, well, 80K$.
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thanks, Andrius. It was a gamble but I was, er, fairly confident it would be approved :P
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Well, then again I am not a cardiologist either so take what I say with a grain of salt. Personally, this whole QT prolongation this is a bit blown out of proportion. Of course this is the Obama FDA so it is way more risk-adverse than the Bush FDA...
Anyway, it is all water under the bridge. the drug is approved, at least the 20/10 was, and now we can focus on trading it and finding the next one.
Thanks for the input.
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Yeah but why would the QTc be any better with the 20/10 vs the 30/10? I can't come up with a good explanation.
Personally I think it is kind of a moot question about the QT issue anyway... as a physician I wouldn't be afraid of using 200mg of quinidine... of course it has been supplanted by the use of cardizem so the point is kind of moot. But, QT prolongation being an issue with 10mg of quinidine? not likely.
But I guess as far as why the FDA nixed the 30/10, I think it was due to the increased number of falls and dizziness in the 30/10 group.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-08/pnls-zhe081109.php
Zenvia 30/10 mg Zenvia 20/10 mg Placebo
N = 107 N = 102 N = 106
Falls 22 (20.6) 14 (13.7) 21 (19.8)
Dizziness 20 (18.7) 11 (10.8) 6 (5.7)
Actually, 20/10 refers to 20mg of Dex, 10mg of Quinidine. The FDA didn't approve the 30/10. Both of them have the same amount of quinidine in them, so the risk for QT prolongation is the same.
The FDA didn't approve the 30/10, I am guessing, because of what I would assume is an increased risk of dizziness, as I imagine Dex makes people more unsteady. Of course I don't have the numbers offhand to look at them again.
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I think that this issue of patenting genes is not as black as white as you think.
Myriad Genetics is the company that first comes to mind. As you may know, they make a test for detecting the BRCA1 and 2 genes. Recently they lost the patent, but they are appealing.
They have spent hundreds of millions of dollars coming up with a test to detect a woman's increased risk of breast cancer, and IMO, they should have some patent protection on that.
I agree with you that you should not be able to patent a gene that someone has in their body. But what if someone (or some company) spent hundreds of millions of dollars figuring out that that gene (or a mutation of it) would increase someone's risk of breast cancer, and that would allow physicians to preemptively reduce that risk of a woman getting cancer (say, through a mastectomy)...
then shouldn't that effort be rewarded? Otherwise I would argue that a company would have no incentive to spend the money in the first place, if other companies could just take their hard-earned research knowledge and duplicate the test.
Same thing with generic drugs, imo. A drug company spends hundreds of millions to develop a drug, and then gets a patent on it, for a number of years. Seems perfectly reasonable.
I think part of the reason of the decision against MYGN was the argument that some other labs could not test for BRCA and could not help women reduce their risk of breast cancer... but if that process was discovered by MYGN, then I think they should be compensated for it. I have not looked at the patent history enough here to know if MYGN was the one to actually determine if the BRCA mutation increased risk in the first place.
Here are a couple of good links:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/health/jan-june10/patents_04-02.html
Older, but a good backgrounder.
http://www.genethics.ca/personal/HistoryPatent.pdf
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I also had expected a gap up higher but for some reason it did not get that high. I think part of the reason may have been because of that flash crash that happened at around 3pm, some people that bought at, say 1.50, were up 200%+ so the were going to sell lower. If there wasn't a flash crash I think the price would have closed at say 3$, and gapped up to at least 6 after hours. But the F-C allowed some shorts to cover as well, thereby lessening the short squeeze on monday.
Also, judging by the media coverage so far like that NYT article posted here:
http://prescriptions.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/a-pill-to-control-laughing-and-weeping/?src=twt&twt=nytimeshealth
I just have this sneaking feeling that they are going to find some ridiculous way to take the stock down to like 4.25 before they bounce it.
I did have a heavy position going into the decision, because I thought it would be positive, and had to live up to my username... lol. I sold 80K shares from ~2.50 at ~5, for +192K$. 20K$ more in the Bofa account.
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/857/20101029etrade.jpg
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The other thing is the the deaths were reviewed by an independent committee and they found that at least 6 of the 7 were definitely unrelated to neudexta. I would be concerned if the deaths were cardiac arrest related, as that is the most obvious thing that makes sense if you think...
QT prolongation --> Torsades --> Vtach --> death
but since the deaths were respiratory, they were judged to be likely from natural progression of disease.
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Actually I first have to buy a new set of boxers after soiling myself when I saw it tanked down to 1.50... I was down like 80K$ in 2 minutes and incontinent at that time. :P
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AVNR: What craziness today... I had done a ton of DD on AVNR (~10 hours) as I figured it had the best chance of all the october PDUFA applications. I still wasn't sure about holding through the PDUFA... I finally bought yesterday about 70K shares at 2.83 or so, and today I was watching at 3pm as it absolutely tanked and I was down 80K$ in just a few minutes. And this was at 3$ a few minutes before. I was stunned. I figured that the drug had gotten rejected, yet I could not find the news anywhere. I was about to put in a market sell when the stock was trading at 1.69 but I hesitated just long enough to decide "Screw them... I'm going Costanza on this trade!!!"
This required PhD level contrarian skills :P
I actually decided to ADD 30K shares at 1.78, and watched as it started recovering... 1.80... 1.99... 2.00... 1.95... should I sell? 2.06... nah, lets hold... 2.20... 2.30... 2.40... 2.49... finally I decide to sell out 20K shares, because I felt I didn't want to go more than 80K shares. By this time I was almost break even and was planning on getting out with just a small loss.
But I decided, again... SCREW THEM!!! I am going to hold!!! Wouldn't it be crazy if it was approved?
It felt like an eternity as I waited another 30 mins until the market closed, and then the AH trading.
Then I saw the bids/asks disappear and I knew news was pending. At this point I had 80K shares and I figured they would delay announcement if it was a CRL so I thought it was likely to be approval. Then the news...
I decided I was the luckiest guy alive and was going to sell as soon as the trading opened. I actually managed to hold out until 6:42pm (7 mins after it opened) and then started pretty much panic selling :P
Total in Etrade account: +172K$
Total in Bofa account (no screenshot) +20K$
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/857/20101029etrade.jpg
http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/2162/20101029avnrsells.jpg
192K$ was definitely my best day ever.
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I can't thank you enough, Sheff. I saw that you liked the pick and so I did about 10 hours of DD and I liked what I saw. I actually was one of the guys who did sell AH today. Probably too early, but I went into the halt with 80K shares at about 2.50 average.
Sold it all AH at ~4.95 for +192,000$. (20K$ more in the Bofa Account)
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/857/20101029etrade.jpg
http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/2162/20101029avnrsells.jpg
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p.s. I am sorry for pushing the stock under 5$. However, I feel I will be regretting my sells at 8am on monday :P
Good luck to the longs!
I just didn't know you could pick picks BEFORE the market opened... but then I read the rules and I guess you can... lol
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You took my pick!
almost got panicked by the bear raid... but made another 20K$ in my bofa acct.
http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/4461/20101030et.jpg
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GAPPER - CHTP
Only because I like the chart, think it's over due for a bounce, and I own some...
lol
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Bought a little CHTP... looking like it's time to bounce after the fall from 7...
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PARD may be running on oversold-bio-pharma pin action from stuff like APPY
discl: partial long PARD
Sold 78k shares at 1.69 from 1.60, +6500... got greedy and should have sold a dime higher.... still holding small arna
...yet it will still probably win as my gapper pick :P
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