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You've got to be kidding me....no super secret surprise? The Asset Purchase Agreement meant just what it said? Crazy days.
>>We should more or less get prepared and take advantage of this forum to discuss the items for the AGM in advance.
You don't seem to get what is going on....they are selling all assets....its a debtor in possession bankruptcy liquidation....there isn't going to be another AGM.
>>Private investment capital are preparing to help boost the industry
This is what I've been hearing, sorta. I've heard jr mining execs complain they can't raise 5 million in the public markets, but private money will throw 300 mm at them if they have a big project. But lets be clear, private investment capital is preparing to boost private investment capital by raping the industry that is down on it's knees.
As I said before, the Esmerelda mill is just a few miles from Watertons Borealis project, which has a CIL plant but really needed a mill.
>>What the self appointed smartest guy on the board wants you to believe is that the industry can't survive on 1,300/OZ when it clearly survived 275/OZ back in 2000
It's not the POG that is all important....it's the POG relative to the cost of production.....and cost input inflation has been quite horrendous these past 13 years. Any third grader can get on google and discern for themselves the current state of the industry....no one should take it from me alone.
>>Is the industry in as bad of shape as you make it out to be???
I've only followed the industry for the last 4 years or so - early '09 by and large. But I've made nice connections in that time span - people who have been directly involved for decades - and universally and without question they all say this is as bad as they have ever experienced. I know for myself it is worse than late '08/early '09 - and that was really bad itself.
>>I if you are correct then there is about to be a lot of money to be made in this industry as it rebuilds
ABSOLUTELY. Gold mining will not go away, but the very act of this industry self-immolating itself (you can ask anyone in the industry - much of the current pain the industry brought on itself), will set up the turn, which will come. When? 6 months, 9 months, 2 years - hard to say in this environment....but it will come.
I don't believe Hollister was well marketed. It should have and could have gone for more.....though not enough more to make a difference for equity. I don't think it was sinister...more just overpaid idiots running a process they don't understand because they are on average 24 and there is a huge disconnect between doing a job and doing a job well.
I'm guessing 500 mm shares O/S creates structural challenges for a dead cat bounce (aka sucker run). POG and HUI being crap the last several months didn't help either.
Penny stocks are the best (and the worst).....as I've been telling you for a couple of months now, you don't want to emotionally commit to one that is facing a hard outgoing tide. Polar - I will say this about you - you dig up all sorts of obscure data, and that's a sincere compliment. And that's an absolutely essential skill on penny stocks, esp. the bk ones. My only suggestion would to suppress the cognitive dissonance on your findings.
Coho, I'll pay for the beer you dump down my duncecap if I'm wrong. I'd like to see you guys win, and I get that you know you're buying a lottery ticket.....but I'm curious if you know you're buying last week's losing lottery tickets? BK is almost always a lottery ticket at best (I've seen a few exceptions over the years but none in recent years). But GBG is not a best case BK play at this point. As I said above, I think you are buying last week's losing tickets. It's not unlike being in Vegas and playing BlackJack without counting the cards. You have a face card here, and there is nothing above a 6 left in the deck.
These battery farms, and flywheel plants as well, are about to get a big break from FERC who is about to up the rates they get reimbursed at for taking power off the grid and putting it back on. It's not just because solar and wind can be intermittent. There are big issues now with loads on the demand side. The super cheap coal/nuclear plants take 10 to 30 minutes to expand capacity in response to demand surges. The smaller nat gas plants take 2 to 3 minutes to fully respond. The battery and flywheel plants are still really expensive on a relative basis, but they respond within a second. My understanding is that FERC is raising the rates the quick responders get because the grid is FUBAR and more of these are desperately needed for stability. They are only meant to make money in those few minutes of demand/capacity mismatch, but FERC wants to make that window lucrative enough. At this point, I like seeing Wanxiang/a123 winning contracts. Anything that further motivates JCI to make a move on a Valence IP is good with me.
Nice article.
http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/gold_and_silver/1627959-Wits-Gold-bullish-on-rights-offer-success#.UbH61MqqnAk
"Writing in the company's annual report that was published on Tuesday (May 28), Philip Kotze, CEO of Wits Gold, said that discounts placed on gold companies were greater than at any time in his career. He also believed that South Africa's international reputation was at an all-time low. However, the decline in the gold price would create acquisition opportunities."
Quite the time to be betting on a miracle - when discounts on gold companies are greater than at any time in long careers (this is the same thing they are saying in Canada, at least it's what the waitresses at Tim Horton's all talk about).....and S.A. int'l reputation is at an all time low.
>>The question is - if we have lost Hollister for a cheap price, Tanzanian assets produce no income and are not able to sell, if Burnstone is sold for a price that barely covers the debtors´ demands – will anything reamain? Is there a possibility of any income for the future?
If they can't sell the remaining Tanzania assets, they stated in the last monitor report they plan to abandon them. NPIs (I'm guessing Burnstone will go with an NPI as well, unless CS takes it via credit bid) will go to creditors to close the case. That'd would be all she wrote.
Unfortunately RB, that's the direction this case is taking.
It's a 2010 paper, but it's one of the better overviews of the industry I've run across. Shows Valence in top 10 of global patent holders - neither A123 or JCI included on that list - most of the list is non-US companies - US outfits are behind the curve on Li-On in many respects according to the paper - JCI is up there in manufacturing capability, but not IP. A123 had a plant here, and one problem I've had is trying to separate what they were willing to bid on A123 between IP and PP&E - from this and your posts earlier Paolo - JCI doesn't appear to need capacity currently - which leads me to guess the bid was based much more heavily toward the IP; high cost plant may very well have been a liability.
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/s_geneva2011/refdocs/RDs/Lithium-Ion%20Batteries%20%28Gereffi%20-%20May%202010%29.pdf
I believe JCI currently produces Li-on with non exclusive licenses they got from SAFT. Based on their deep interest in A123, I believe they feel they need better IP protection.
You know they refer to the bankruptcy process by different names in different countries, right? In the US they will normally say Chapter 11 or Chapter 7....in Canada they call the process CCAA or BIA. They have two terms in the UK, I think one is called administration, but I've never followed a case there so don't qoute me. Guess what they call it in South Africa? Business Rescue Proceedings. GBG is in bankruptcy proceedings in all three countries.....please tell me this is not news to you?
>>So is Chapter 11 the new Bankrupt, I don't think so.
Chapter 11 has always been 'bankrupt'.....nothing new about that.
>>Planning to add 1M to round up to 5M shares but wonder if i can do that prior to publication of BRP plan
I'd wait....it will be easier and much cheaper after publication. ;)
>>at least the market cap is so low at these PPS values it is had to imagine it will go any direction other than up from here.
I think you are confusing wishing with imagining. The good news is that one can only lose roughly .007 from here.......the bad news is that most will lose .007 many many many more times over. Do you think the Burnstone sale results have been postponed because all the bids were better than expected? I'd hazard the educated guess that it was postponed because all received offers were below the worst expectations. The Hollister auction took two days for a 15 mm winning bid - it doesn't take that long to get to 15 million unless there are desperate attempts being made to salvage some sort of residual value from the process. I'd guess the best offer is below the $$$ that makes the secured lenders whole, much less the debenture holders and unsecureds - and the extra time is to allow the secureds, namely Credit Suisse, to determine whether or not they want to credit bid the Burnstone and take it inhouse. The waitresses in Vancouver have told me many of the big banks are looking for big projects on the cheap during this protracted downturn in the industry. We'll find out soon enough.
>>Todays shareprice is fake and doesn't reflect the real value.
I agree.....it's 100% overvalued for now.
It's probably about time for another major round of averaging down again to try and get close to even with the current share price, no?
Ask is back to .007 - who could have seen that coming?
>>IF OUR GBGLF ASK starts and remains over 10 cents; IMO something leaked and I am searching for it.
Keep looking....
How pray tell has the number of O/S shares dropped by even 1 share in the past few months? I'm pretty sure its not the shares that are defying logic here.....
The primary venue of the GBG insolvency proceedings is CCAA in Canada - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Companies%27_Creditors_Arrangement_Act
or you can look at the file on GBG maintained by the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/bsf-osb.nsf/eng/br02976.html
>>That's a very good question except do you have a link to indicate that they are bankrupt, hmmmm
If you need me to provide a link to prove to yourself that GBGLF hasn't been in the middle of bankruptcy proceedings for the last 9 months, you might be a little bit lost here.
>>If they are updating the website why not remove Hollister since GBG doesn't own it. Make you wonder?
Which do you think carries more weight on this subject? The website of a bankrupt company or the court certified Asset Purchase Agreement between GBG(via Rodeo) and Waterton?
>>Your posts are all so positive but the stock keeps going lower....
If by 'positive' you mean delusional...I concur. :)
Miner shootings at Lonmin irrelevant? Mocking ZH site? New heights of cluelessness are achieved daily around here.
South Africa....it's a wonderful country to do bidness
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-03/lonmin-shares-zar-slide-following-deja-vu-news-two-south-african-mine-workers-shot-o
I'm not a big chart guy, but that one does look intriguing chief.
I bet it wasn't. No Gate Basin Butt Hurt for me ;)
Yrah, I too noticed they are vague on the Waterton JV....so vague they don't even mention it. It must be a triple top secret kinda thingy....like they are planning a surprise party for equity at the end. That's awfully thoughtful if them. I'll sit here and hold my breath for the big 'reveal'.
Falling off a cliff also starts with a single step....just sayin'. :)
Wow.....that's all I have to say. Wow.
I don't suffer from superstitions....I just go with what I see. I've been in Vancouver for nine days this trip.....it ain't pretty. Worse than I've ever seen, but I take that as a positive Nothing turns before the second last class of stalwarts throws in the towel. That's happening now....not quite soon enough for GBG, but this has been a forgone case for quite a while now. I did pitch the remaining Tanzanian assets to a couple of waitresses today....but only because they appear like they can be stolen on the cheap.
wanxiang was not allowed to purchase the small military division of A123 - that went to a third bidder. Can't remember the name - I would guess they got a carve out on the A123 license for certain limited applications. On that link I posted earlier, it's very interesting to see who doesn't show up with any decent IP to speak of - JCI. That's the synnergy - JCI needs IP now that a big 800 pound gorilla is in the space. Valence needs a gorilla partner now that a big 800 pound gorilla is in the space. Berg is a smart guy - I think he sees this all too clearly.
I posted this link a few months back - not that there seems to be anyone here, but this is why I really like this company. Look at the size and scope of the Valence patent estate within the sector, especially as compared to A123. This case has completely revolved and turned on their auction results, and the bitter battle that JCI waged behind the scenes in Washington to try and void the sale to Wanxiang. That Valence went looking for new money late in the case and filed engagement motions just two weeks after the CFIUS decision speaks volumes about where this case is heading. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CGcQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fist.fr%2Fen%2Fip-overview%2F709.html&ei=vASEUfYJi6b2BMKTgagF&usg=AFQjCNESezA42WabpVxGbnRVLsudjROY5g&sig2=k7AMrigfOS01WqOaENYO7A&bvm=bv.45960087,d.eWU
I don't consider myself negative. I work for a gold exploration company. I'm a realist, because this current market eats hope for breakfast. I love gold...and I love miners....I love them both enough to keep my powder dry for the time being. This is the time to be buying hard assets, not shares. You guys are fighting the tide...and you're going to kick yourselves for it when the curtain falls. Some lessons have to be learned the hard way.