I need a new back!
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I agree with you. Fucking stupid if you ask me. Unemployment age for 16 to 18 year olds is 30% or over. Dad gives you 20 bucks to last the week. Where's the money for the bank?
Totally agree. Waiting 5 to 10 minutes for a post to post. LOL
That's why you see double posts from me sometimes because I wait & hit the Submit button again. Sorry for that!
Still holding 3. 2 down, one up.
Two mistakes I made. When KSU dropped $12 (my lotto ticket) I should of bought in the money options @ 100 or 105 instead of 115 & should of extended it to March.
Hertz HTZ still holding on Icahn rumor.
Time Warner TWX still holding March 65C. The whale @ 67.5 is still sitting there with 20,000 Call options. I'm waiting to see why he put up 1Mil. TWX must have something in the works.
All is just my humble opinion.
I’ll be honest, this is as confused as I’ve seen the market in quite some time. Right as we were closing for the day yesterday afternoon, news came out of Turkey that they were drastically raising their interest 425 basis points to 12%. Now, to put this in context, in the U.S. the discussion is almost always whether to raise or lower rates by just 25 basis points.
Frankly, I was of the opinion that anything Turkey does economically shouldn’t have any effect on global markets. In reaction to this news though, futures markets rallied around the world and the SPX was immediately 10 points higher.
As you know, this rally couldn’t even last overnight as SPX opened 15 lower than yesterday’s close, and thus 25 points off the overnight highs. Color me confused. We’re seeing 25 point SPX moves off of news from a country whose GDP is less than that of Apple and ExxonMobil combined.
The point here is that confusion is currently ruling the roost, and it looks like we’re only in for more of the same with the FOMC announcement coming in just a few minutes.
Currently we have a number of long delta positions, and while I’m nervous about holding this many calls, I simply love all the names in which we’re bullish. I’ll individually detail all of these names in the weekly recap this afternoon, but for now I don’t see many options other than sitting on our hands and watching the madness unfold.
If you’re nervous about having too much long exposure, I’ll offer you 3 potential strategies…
Add to your short March 183 Calls.
Turn some of your long calls into bull call spreads. For example – we own the March 45 Calls in LNG, you could sell some March 50 calls to reduce some exposure.
Protect with “lottery” puts. We hardly ever recommend trading weekly options, but this could be a situation where it makes sense. If SPX 1773 is definitively broken (I don’t think it will be) then there is plenty more room to fall. You could consider buying the weekly SPY 176 puts for roughly $0.55, and these could pay off big if the market reacts negatively.
As far as what to expect from the FOMC — we saw at their last meeting that they are making plans to start the taper. Remember that in reaction to this seemingly bearish news, the market actually rallied. As always, it won’t be the news but the reaction to the news that tells the tale.
We'll see what the Fed does. Might have to unload on some puts.
Been bullish last week. Four red days. One green Friday.
And now this shit.
Something Doesn’t Make Sense
In a blog post, Ed Yardeni just wrote this….
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The notion that an emerging-markets crisis is bearish for the U.S. stock market isn’t confirmed by the experience of 1997. Recessions are bearish for stocks. So far, it’s hard to see how the current emerging-markets crisis triggers a recession in the U.S.”
In a note supporting Ed’s comments, I can tell you this: Never before in my trading career have I given any thought to interest rates in Turkey. But now, they’re triggering a global selloff? Something doesn’t seem right to me – simply because this downside trigger catalyst just doesn’t make any sense.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Federal Reserve will unveil its policy statement later today. This is yet another reason to keep everything as light as possible – and lean on our DXD protective hedge.
As an overall view on this sell-off, if the markets can gap aggressively lower on any sort of mosquito bite like this, then we must be as cautions as ever. I’m still not buying the Turkey news, but that’s irrelevant. For now, it’s causing the markets to drop, so we have to respect it.
The best advice? Maintain DXD and see how this all plays out — especially as we hear from the Fed this afternoon. I get the sense that nobody really knows what’s happening right now, so we’ll play it safe. There are times to make money — and other times that do nothing but pay your broker commission fees. Right now, we’re set solidly in a “pay your broker” market environment. Until that changes, we have to remain light. This is the safe and smart move.
Yahoo, here you go: ALIBABA:
Even the Alibaba numbers failed to thrill. The Chinese e-tailing powerhouse, in which Yahoo has a 24% stake, showed a 51% year-over-year increase in revenue, but analysts picked up signals that its margins were showing signs of shrinkage. The wannabe Wall Street darling is expected to go public sometime this year.
Still, Yahoo's results offer a peek inside this hot company's progress: Alibaba made $801 million in profit for the quarter, compared to a $246 million loss in the same period a year earlier. The loss was due mainly to a royalty payment to Yahoo.
Yahoo, from what I heard yesterday is tied into a Chinese website called "Ali Baba" or some shit like that. They were worried about the numbers from the Chinese site.
True story. Believe it or not. My wife came down one morning telling me she had a hard time waking up. I told her I shorted Apple for $40,000 & showed her on the trading platform.
She woke up in a hurry. It was last year. LOL!
Dee, that is some excellent research! Good morning.
Nice formula you came up with. Congrats!
Yeah. I have to go out. Dr. appt. I read an article that one would lose more wait freezing your buns off than walking. Put that to the test today. LOL!
Yesterdays whale who bought 20,000 contracts on TWX Calls March @ 67.5 moved to open interest from yesterdays volume. So he is still sitting there anticipating more. I'll wait with him.
absolutely right. Good luck.
Good morning SOU!!!!!!!!!! Still freezing my ass off outside Chicago.
Remember not everyone trades premarket. Uncle Joe & friends might open the computer 10 minutes before OPEN & panic sell with a few others driving the price furthur down. Wait until it evens out & you see a reversal.
pre market I got AAPL down $41.50
I'm thinking this is all a short to induce the Fed to pump more
money into the markets during the Fed meeting Tues. & Wed.
If the money spigot opens up & pours the monthly 65 billion I have to believe we turn green. Fingers crossed.
Shares of media giant Time Warner (TWX – NYSE) are bumping into support at its 200 day moving average.
More importantly, someone just came in, and bought 20,000 March 67.50 calls, spending just over a million dollars in premium to do it.
Pick up Time Warner TWX March 65 Calls @ 1.28 10 contracts
The excuse for today’s extended sell-off is pretty lame. From what I can see, the reasons the today’s weakness are as follows: “Worries about China, Latin America and company earnings ganged up on investors and sent futures tumbling.”
Well, the markets reacted to the China worries yesterday. Latin America, like we’ve seen over and over again, is no more than a one-day worry. And when it comes to earnings, some big names are reporting great numbers. So to me, things don’t add up. Investors are selling just because they’re seeing red for the first time in 18 months – which seems like an eternity. Thanks to the Fed, we’ve gotten into this comfort zone where stocks go up day after day after day. Now that sentiment is shifting, so investors need to realize that this is what a normal market does – moves higher and lower. Of course, we didn’t argue about playing the non-stop upside. After all, if the Fed is pumping the markets higher, why would we not play along? It’s only logical to get our piece of the action. But now that things are changing, a more cautious approach is needed.----NO SHIT!
The excuse for today’s extended sell-off is pretty lame. From what I can see, the reasons the today’s weakness are as follows: “Worries about China, Latin America and company earnings ganged up on investors and sent futures tumbling.”
Well, the markets reacted to the China worries yesterday. Latin America, like we’ve seen over and over again, is no more than a one-day worry. And when it comes to earnings, some big names are reporting great numbers. So to me, things don’t add up. Investors are selling just because they’re seeing red for the first time in 18 months – which seems like an eternity. Thanks to the Fed, we’ve gotten into this comfort zone where stocks go up day after day after day. Now that sentiment is shifting, so investors need to realize that this is what a normal market does – moves higher and lower. Of course, we didn’t argue about playing the non-stop upside. After all, if the Fed is pumping the markets higher, why would we not play along? It’s only logical to get our piece of the action. But now that things are changing, a more cautious approach is needed.----NO SHIT!
This morning, KSU reported earnings of $1.03 per share, which was $0.07 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.10. Never mind that KSU revenues rose 8.4% year over year. Wall Street sees one “miss” number, and that’s all they need to punish the stock.
Bought a lotto ticket. Kansas City Southern KSU Feb 115 Calls @ .35 10 contracts
Hey! Quote screen all red again.
Hey! Quote screen all red again.
1 for 2. Sold DECK Feb 75 Puts @ 4.50. Even. Glad to be out.
Was down $800 this morning.
Give me one uptick on the bid (DECK) & I'll get out of this trade even. Maybe I'll put 7 contracts on the ask @ 4.60 & see if someone buys them up for a $70 profit.
The markets are opening with a big drop after China’s manufacturing sector registered a surprise contraction in January. Will this gap-down be a buying opportunity? As you know, we’ve typically seen upside rallies get faded here in 2014. But today, will the opposite happen – and a gap-down get bought?
Good morning SOU!
Shares of Deckers Outdoors (DECK – NASDAQ) have been getting slaughtered lately – and the recent price chart indicates that the bloodletting won’t stop until support at $70.00. While there isn’t really any bad news in DECK, insiders are selling – and I also suspect that hedge funds are liquidating their positions. If that’s the case, this cascade selling is something I want to profit off. Hopefully!
Deck options up 1.30 on the day. Got in at the wrong time. Profit taking.
Just bought Deck Feb 75 Puts @ 4.50 7 contracts
Market Depth on options is bullshit. You wait for the volume to go down or up in price & they reload with 1000 or 3000 or more contracts @ the same price.
Like fighting a fake war. You don't know what's real.
1 for 2. Sold CHK @ 1.78 from .91. +860.00
Post 18214
FirstEnergy down After Dividend Cut.
FirstEnergy down After Dividend Cut.
Hertz Calls finally moving.
FE taking a beating this morning.
CHK up $850 right now. Looking for more. GREED.
Will make up for my VJET loss.