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To what end? Who cares how we actually do? Anyway I guess my main reason for not doing so is that it's too much work.
The net of that should still provide the bears with fuel for their cannibalization argument for another month or two then we will look for the 'sell thru' in Nov-Dec to take the steam out of that. The 'sell thru' will occur when OEMs find they didn't pre-order enough product to handle holiday season purchases and need additional trays of BayTrail and Haswell processors.
Yes I'm writing puts as well but in a less bold way. I'll write them after several days of down action when there is zero news of any consequence. Further I buy them back quicker on any pop in the stock as I did during IDF (but before today's upgrade :( )
Correct. So I am predicting the bear case to be laid out further going into Q3 earnings. I am not expecting my shares to be called away at 24 in Oct. but would expect 24 to be reached and held by Nov. Just my prediction, we will see.
I also just filled on oct 24s at .38 cents. I'll try to add the other half of this position next week if the price makes another leg up. Hopefully I can sell them BEFORE the bears make their move with new 'tablets canibalizing notebook' articles!
Sarmad you can start thinking about writing those 24s again now. I've set some limit orders on writing the Oct 24's now and will try to write more on any further run up. I expect some back sliding going into the Oct earnings call.
after it was confirmed that its Vaio Tap 11 is officially the thinnest PC tablet around
Oh no what will the analysts do with this term 'PC tablet'? Are we to hear that now client PCs are being cannibalized by 'PC tablets' and that this spells the end of Intel? No wait this spells the rise of Intel? No wait, we don't know what it spells because it's a new form factor (the right answer).
Talk about a back-handed compliment headline:
Intel Goes Deeper Into Cloud and Datacenter After Missing Mobile
Even when Intel has something new to talk about the media sheep can't resist adding a barb. We can only hope that IF Intel can turn the tide in mobile that every headline thereafter adds '...now that Intel is dominating mobile'.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-goes-deeper-cloud-datacenter-165805737.html
A very ugly day for INTC today. The divergence seems to indicate that we're still not at a bottom for the stock. I'm now thinking there will still be opportunities to buy in the $20-21 range going into Q3 earnings.
With Goldman's recent confirmation of their $16 price target for INTC and today's 2% plus retreat of the tech laden Nasdaq, I would have expected to see a sharp dip in the price of Intel. Could today's showing be the sign of a bottom in the stock in the 21-22 range? Another explanation could be short term resistance where holders don't want to close any existing positions until they see what may be coming at IDF in Sept.
It appears that only the Atom based system is shipping
Maybe the ARM based Moonshot got hung up in validation. No that couldn't be it.
I was one of the contributors to the budget surplus in those two years paying huge AMT on paper gains on exercised INTC options that I never saw the 'real' gains for. I don't wish for that part again!
I said it 'tongue in cheek', however I am still optimistic that the voting public will come around to understand that govt spending must be brought closer in line with existing revenue in order to increase the chances of balancing our budget should we experience the natural revenue gains that come with a growing economy. I remain hopeful that the pendulum will swing back toward fiscal sanity from where it has been the past several years.
I am concerned about our national debt and our ability to finance it. When borrowing rates go up in our household we start de-leveraging. Can't we count on the same from Washington?
The doom and gloom wasn't generally
I thought Mr. 'Grave' was referring generally to interest rates spiking, home purchases declining, unemployment rate stalling and that the next smartphone we buy will be out of a gum ball machine.
There's too much negative speculation there for me to make an investment decision on. I believe the increase in the price of money is a necessary step and that as long as it takes a while to get back to more historical normalized rates, I think we'll be fine (being invested in equities including Intel).
The doom and gloom predictors would have all there investments weighted toward cash, TIPs, gold and commodities. How has that portfolio stacked up to an equity/bond portfolio even one that was heavily weighted with Intel? I'm asking the question because I'm actually not sure. But my guess is probably not well.
Uhh no, I'll get higher premiums writing the 22 or 21 puts if the stock goes south.
I bought back to close my Sept 22 puts yesterday for a small profit and am now looking to resell them if we get more of a down draft tomorrow and Friday. I think shorting the Sept 21 or 22 puts here will allow closing them out for a gain in the first weeks of Sept.
Let me guess...Intel's going to real start focusing on mobile!
True, I haven't found any virus's in our cafeteria food lately!
I sure hope that Sysco is not managing the network security of the US government :)
Sold some Sept 22 puts this morning for .30 Also sold some Oct 24 calls last week for .44
presumably today's drop is attributable to it.
INTC went ex-dividend today hence the drop in share price. No need to be alarmed.
share price to go in the direction of $25 in mid September
I'm skeptical of a move to $25 by mid Sept. but am fairly confident of a move to $24+ in that time frame. Now that the destruction of the share price following the last call seems rather tepid I think some analyst's will come out with some wild upside speculation meant to drive the price upward. So if we see $24+ in the next month and half that will be the time to sell the Oct/Nov $25s IMO.
what is max pain for INTC at this time ? Say for Sept or October ?
I use: http://www.option-calc.com/optioncalc/
which yielded the following:
INTEL CORP. (INTC)
Max Pain: $25.00
Trade Date: 2013-07-26 | Exp. Date: 2013-09-21
INTEL CORP. (INTC)
Max Pain: $23.00
Trade Date: 2013-07-26 | Exp. Date: 2013-10-19
But on the flip-side...how long would someone really use $99 tablet? A year? Or maybe even less if its crap. People that might buy a couple of these still want something powerful to do real work, I know I do.
Anything good that would come in the Q3 report means that that activity is happening now. Until we see a plethora of haswell and bay trail designs that are available for immediate purchase I can't honestly expect that good report. And if those devices show up in qty in late August then the Q3 report might still be mediocre at best. I'm a seller of the 24 calls as a result (again and this time I mean it).
It's a good strategy. At this point though I would prefer to wait for the inevitable bounce back to 23.50 or so and then sell the 24s or 25s in that 1-3 month range.
BTW: my penance is due to that fact that I DID sell plenty of 25's and 26 calls in the past few months, but kept buying them back also out of greed. I didn't trust and play out my initial strategy to it's conclusion.
I hold INTC shares mainly as a form of penance.
Perhaps we'll soon hear in the confessional booth: "My son, say 10 Our Fathers and 4 Hail Mary's and buy 200 shares of INTC, go in peace and sin no more"
From a stock price perspective I would agree with the assertion that Intel stock price suffered due to the competitive threat from AMD during those years. Are you arguing that the phrase 'knocked around' isn't accurate or is misleading? I think from a stock price perspective it is accurate.
And this is the dilemma for the intel investor. We always seem to be waiting for the next product cadence to identify our competitive position. At some point we have to say "this is our competitive position. We may inch forward a bit and we may fall back a bit but basically this is where we are and will be within the pack".
The question becomes are we at that point now or is one more product cadence needed before we say that?
Oh I thought you were calling BS that intel is not in the lead in mobile SoC designs. Which I thought was the key point in the quote from the analyst.
Where is a working intel LTE SoC in the mobile marketplace then?
I'll see their 24.75 and offer 24.76 for those same 4 million shares!
Re: tablets replacing notebook purchases
Wouldn't it be true to say that the replacement cycle of tablets in general is faster than that of the traditional notebook or desktop PC? Aren't tablets being treated as more disposable by consumers? If so the tablet trend could be a net positive for Intel as they make their way into more of these devices even at the expense of losing some higher ASP notebooks. We could be heading back to the days of upgrading our tablets every year and water-falling the old ones to someone else like we used to do with our desktops. The Piper Jaffrey analyst didn't consider this in his note.
You would look in the mirror and say 'who' and it would tell you your name and when and where you were born. We won't need to use our minds for anything anymore!
I've grown so weary of calling them and having a bone thrown at me for a free something-or-other for 3 months that I can't do it anymore. They've worn me down with their strategy of 'keep making them call and they'll give up eventually'!
I think they're officially still at 16!
I would like to see Intel produce highest performance phones and tablets...
I think what Intel is doing first is to present the 'possibility' that we (Intel) might start producing a vertical solution for tablets and phones if OEMs don't get moving. They are slowly letting this message make it's way into the OEM psyche to plant the seed that it might be better for them to jump on the Intel train now and avoid this possibility from becoming a reality. It is still better for Intel to remain a component supplier to many OEMs than to compete against their customers with their own product IMO.
The average IQ of institutional investors? Not a chance!