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Here's an old interview of Fetterman's wife, Gisele, on Let's Be Blunt with Montel Williams. Cannabis has been a passion project for the Fetterman family. https://letsbebluntmontel.com/episodes/ea5idetdsz1phqvfrx4xeawdcasx3j
That's frustrating...and (I apologize) quite humorous! But seriously, what good is information, and learning/self- growth if you can't question/challenge it?
Wait, he banned you from his paid service? I am curious how that worked. I assume you were told to seek cannabis advice elsewhere because you questioned his reporting/numbers? No wonder why all his weekend YouTube videos have turned into a 15-20min boasting session on how his portfolios are beating the 'industry average' along with trying to convince viewers to join his service. His information has been extremely limited recently and quite frankly ridiculous. Prior to his accident he spent his time focused on writing negative earnings report headlines. Now post accident, even though most companies have been pretty vanilla, he has flipped the script to headline something positive. Here is the info from the companies corporate presentation:
You're right, what exactly is a swap? Holding the company that holds the actual shares (allegedly) of the company? IMO, liquidity is the reason why most of the ETFs don't hold SHWZ...or hold a nominal amount. I personally don't hold MSOS because at least half of their holdings are junk. As for Jungle Java, LOL, ironically, I follow her on Twitter because she posts the daily turnover of shares, and I am curious as to what stocks the ETFs think are worth it...and when. For the most part I only see buying high and selling low. People keep saying 'wait until institutions start buying'. Well at least one ETF has been buying (up to) 100+% of the OTC traded daily volume and those stocks didnt see green.
Up until today it was nice to see the stock holding its own. Could also be a 'going into a long weekend' algorithmic sell off? Although I am a believer that the most recent trend is ETF fabricated. The industry ETFs have been buying (the perceived) top 6 MSOs, heavy, over the last 2 weeks...especially MJUS. With the exception of its first installment, which it increased its SHWZ holdings by a little bit, MJUS has been deploying a ton of cash into the space...mostly in those top MSOs...and those MSO SPs haven't held up. I have found this concerning because what happens once their buying stops? Will the industry trend back to the previous bottom? Will they reverse the algos? Or will we move into election conversation and potential cannabis hype...and possible Biden federal decriminalization?
Thanks all for your continued due diligence and the willingness to share your information.
I agree. OK is a complete mess. Easy bet that most of the product grown is leaving the state because the medical population is only 10%. In addition, I think the state is trying to get control of the industry and actually (recently) stopped selling new licenses.
That's an interesting point. As for Florida, from what I understand, it's a challenging growing location due to humidity.
Exciting! Thanks IPS.
Small concern: I see an article stating that NM only has a 30 day supply of drinking water left, knowing how thirsty of a plant cannabis is. Sure the industry could pay for a water truck, like they do in other water constricted locations, but I can see the NM cannabis industry being the scapegoat...because that is what also happens in those locations.
Thanks for posting. I actually follow their podcast.
Back in June I was reviewing Colorado numbers. Sure they are in a decline compared to the monthly sales during (peak) COVID, but if you remove the COVID months/years from the trend the numbers are still trending up. I dont expect Colorado to be over $2.22B in total sales this year (2021 sales value)...but they will be over the $1.75B, which was the (record) total annual sales that the state had before COVID (in 2019). I think it will land somewhere around the $1.9B mark.
Comparing 1H Colorado sales since 2018:
2018 - $490M
2019 - $504.6M
2020 - $587.2M (COVID lockdowns started mid-March)
2021 - $768M
2022 - $611.9M
Per Betting Bruiser: Breaking news …
IIROC Canada bans naked short selling effective immediately.
No shorting a locked up position.
Finally regulators are listening.
https://t.co/dp1GEMBYHB
https://t.co/2jbmr2BkK0
I am shocked that it hasnt happened sooner. SHWZ is easily a smarter option than almost all of the other companies that those Industry ETFs hold. I mean I cant get myself to buy a single share of those ETFs because of most of their other holdings. Too many junk companies in the holdings of MSOS, specifically...plus if you watch their daily sells/buys, they have proven that they prefer to buy high and sell low. I honestly do wonder if the dismissal of Andy has turned the old-guard against Dye.
How ironic...diluted EPS say 0.24 and the stock is up 24 cents today. (Not complaining.)
https://www.greenmarketreport.com/schwazze-ekes-out-on-revenue-despite-challenging-colorado-market/
Too bad they spelled the name wrong throughout the entire article except the title and the last time the mentioned the company in the article.
Alan is bias and holds grudges. He was huge on Medicine Man Termsheets, I mean, Technologies...that is, up until Dye took over. Probably because Dye cut costs which included his company's subscription. I am glad that Alan is back from his bike injury but he must be hurting more than usual for subscribers. He has been prioritizing his subscription service recently...at least more than providing useful industry information. Hard to sell a subscription service when the industry has fallen the last 19 months and people are looking at a -50%, or more, return.
At least Alan eventually posted the news...unlike Todd Harrison. Todd has yet to even acknowledge SHWZ as a company...let alone MSO. I will know the industry has bottomed when Todd finally turns bearish.
If we get dinged...it will be on the revised guidance:
Revised Guidance Driven by Short-Term, Challenging Colorado Market Conditions
Q4 2022 Projected Revenue Annualized Run Rate: $175 Million - $200 Million
Q4 2022 Projected Adjusted EBITDA Annualized Run Rate: $60 Million - $72 Million
Previous:
Q4 2022 Projected Revenue Annualized Run Rate of Approximately $220 Million - $260 Million
Q4 2022 Projected Adjusted EBITDA Annualized Run Rate of Approximately $70 Million - $82 Million
Gee4030, you're right. I am following Twitter, and listening to a spaces right now. The spaces were sure to talk about Terrascend...but no mention or post on SHWZ...yet!
You're right! I didnt see that coming. I thought small operations loss. I surely didnt anticipate 57% gross margin in my calculations. To have almost $45M in revenue! Also the continued growth in Colorado sales while the monthly sales numbers are trending in the wrong direction.
Those derivative liabilities really make a difference. Nice to see they broke over 40M...I honestly didnt expect it with gray cloud the other companies portray over CO.
AWESOME that they broke out the revenue by state of operation!
Looks like the company controls approximately 10% of the NM market.
Yeah exactly DrugDoctor...because if not then they will more than likely be joining the list of the other 'Top MSOs' that have revised guidance. Except they tend to use 'Annualized Run Rate'. Either way, a decrease in the approximation wont help the stock price.
Q4 2022 Projected Revenue Annualized Run Rate of Approximately $220 Million - $260 Million
Q4 2022 Projected Adjusted EBITDA Annualized Run Rate of Approximately $70 Million - $82 Million
There were 11 reviews on GlassDoor that I was interested in reading, for comparison, however in order to do so the website forces you to fill out information and write an 'anonymous' review.
This is a little concerning. I assume it will increase expenses and probably cut into margins...but who knows.
"The minimum wage in Denver is going up in 2023 to adjust for the rise in the Consumer Price Index"...
"Denver will become one of several cities in the country to pay workers a starting salary above $17 an hour in 2023, department officials say. The current minimum wage in Denver is $15.87 an hour."
Ain't that the truth. I tried to get too cute with the funds I had waiting for the dips and play other earnings reports. One worked out for me, while the other has me trapped...and go figure, it's the company that reported the worst (out of the two) earnings that provided me the win.
What is also a shame is most of the mouthpieces on Twitter will announce upcoming industry earnings reports and no where on their list is SHWZ.
And Marillionaire, that was my exact thought. Smart move for them because they arent an efficient operator.
Speaking of faltering and fading...
Curaleaf is choosing to protect their margins and limiting their exposure in California and Colorado. They claim that they will be increasing their Select Brand in Colorado the second half of the year...but these were their words on California and Colorado during their earnings call:
BORIS -- An example of actions we have taken to improve our profitability improved rationalizing low margin states such as California and Colorado. While having a presence in these markets is critical to long-term brand building, we see no need to participate in rational pricing behavior and prefer to preserve cash and wait for these markets to complete their natural rebalancing.
Meanwhile, speaking about 'rational pricing behavior', Curaleaf is literally initiating a pricing war in Florida in an attempt to steal market share from Trulieve
DARIN -- On the wholesale side, we're focused on growing profitable market share in our core states and improving margins. This is coming as small cost to top line as we saw a 2% reduction in revenue during the quarter, largely as a result of continued price rationalization in California and Colorado.
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (KRDO) -- The state has shut down three Colorado Springs medical marijuana dispensaries. According to a warrant for distraint notices on the front door of one of the businesses, the owners owe thousands of dollars in unpaid taxes.
Thursday, 13 Investigates learned that Tweedleaf was shut down by the Marijuana Enforcement Divison (MED). All seven Tweedleaf locations in Colorado were shut down.
According to Google, there were 122 medical dispensaries in Colorado Springs, however one of the Tweedleaf locations that was closed was in Old Colorado Town...which is 2.5mi, essentially a straight shot, from the Emerald Fields Manitou store.
I would lobby for Ruidoso, NM.
"The village with a population of about 10,000 welcomes around 1.9 million tourists every year according to The Village of Ruidoso Tourism Department"
Using the July sales numbers:
Sales per capita for the cities with over $1M in sales (estimates):
Ruidoso (pop. 7.8K), sales $1.2M; which is $154/person
Sunland Park (pop. 17K), sales $1.4M; which is $82/person
Hobbs (pop. 38K); sales $1.6M which is $42/person
Santa Fe (pop. 84K); sales $3.5M; which is $42/person
Carlsbad (pop. 29K); sales $1.1M; which is $38/person
Los Cruces (pop. 102K); sales $3.3M, which is $32/person
Alamogordo (pop. 32K); sales $1M; which is $31/person
Clovis (pop. 39K); sales $1.2M; which is $31/person
Albuquerque (pop. 560K); sales $14.6M; which is $26/person
Roswell (pop. 48K); sales $1M; which is $20/person
Rio Rancho (pop. 104K); sales $1.6M; which is $15/person
Chichus, I did the same thing...except I decided to flip it into SHWZ. I had a small order waiting for another dip on SHWZ...I was debating on buying MRMD before earnings (and then flipping that) but instead bought the Tilray dip yesterday. It was a no-brainer to sell it this morning.
Knife, I expected this to be SHWZ's New Mexico highest grossing store because Las Cruces is a 45 minute from El Paso, TX...a population near 700K. Border stores are always a concern if surrounding states are moving to recreational use...but Texas should move slower than most states. Unlike Illinois, to which I am not bullish like others in the industry. That state is issuing more licenses and will be growing exponentially, however 30% of their sales are out of state (mainly from Missouri). Missouri has been discussing going recreational...and keep falling short...but the last time I heard they were planning to come online intentionally undercutting Illinois taxation to help drive sales.
Well it triggered my 0.91 GTC. At this rate you might be able to get some lower. No buyers...patience game.
MRMD posted news. Today is their start day on the CSE.
I think that it is to protect their EBITDA margin, since Boris previously said at best the company would see 20-25% EBITDA margins in the competitive states. Per the PR, the main reason for the purchase was an interstate commerce play but they also claimed that it would supply their Select brand products in CO. Similar moves have been happening with other MSOs, like selling assets in competitive states (Acreage). Chasing the dream...
Look at this Twitter post, specifically the last item on the list:
https://mobile.twitter.com/chris_honeybee/status/1544683916900110340/photo/1
"Los Sueños did not plant their 40 acres"
I agree. Getting your name out there is essentially a waste of time right now. Especially because even the 'favorites' cant seem to find any love right now. I expected a less eventful industry in 2022...but not like this. I expected more hype events as Schumer worked toward introducing his CAOA bill. At this point, if that moment comes, and any cannabis stock pops on the false hope of something actually happening, I can see companies selling shares on the pop just to add cash to their books. I think that there will be opportunities for certain companies but right now corporate America appears to be tightening their change purse anticipating a recession, or at least slower growth ahead. The tech industry seems to have moved toward a hiring freeze, which is usually a quick first indicator. At this point, I am just adding a little cash each pay and trying to figure out (between 3 stocks) where...and at what price point...I want to deploy it.