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I couldn’t agree more. The stock seems to be performing at a 30-35x eps multiple. It isn’t fair in relation to the broad MJ market and their crazy valuations in relation to actual earnings and eps. But 30-35x is reasonable and healthy. The price will trace higher as we enter Q3, and after Q2 earnings are released to paint a picture of what our full year earnings will look like. (I think Q2 we will pull 54.8).
This is a little forecast I put together in June on what I think we might see heading into Q3. I’m not expecting it to be totally accurate of course haha, but will be fun to see how close we get to seeing these trading ranges.
Trulieve trading range targets
1-15 July
Low: 9.39
High: 10.95
15-30 July
Low: 10.25
High: 12.95
1-15 August
Low: 11.98
High: 13.98
15-30 August
Low: 12.84
High: 14.99
1-15 September
Low: 13.71
High: 15.99
15-30 September
Low: 14.57
High: 17.00
Always do due diligence and GLTA
Not a bad day today. Nice little bounce that was more then due. Let see it carry into next week! Glad I got some of those 9.80’s.
650 Million annual revs at 35% net income would be 227,500,000.
Current O/S is 110,132,168. With the recent 68 Million dollar shelf filing, once all warrants are converted at 12.98USD. Will add 1,740,000 shares.
So let’s say 111,872,168 O/S. 227.5Mil/111,872,168 = 2.03eps.
2.03(30x) = 60.90 per share USD
2.03(35x) = 71.05 per share USD
Would be nice but I don’t believe will be the case. I expect further share raises etc.
I think O/S will be around 125 - 150 Million fully diluted by end of 2021 going into 2022. Funding and issuance of shares will happen as they expand and grow. And given Trulieves responsible nature in managing O/S float, I have no doubt we will remain in those ranges.
Use the same above method with a more conservative/realistic future O/S and you are correct. End of 2021 into 2022 we would sit at 40 - 55 a share trading range.
All of these numbers are useless though really. Just pure speculation. Looking out that far isn’t reliable at all because so much could change. But so far looking out towards end of 2019 into 2020, I’m loving our direction and completely expect some end of Q3 into Q4 movement.
I’m not sure what the advertising strategy is in other states. I have no doubt the Trulieve label will be present. I’m not sure about Trulieve labeled stores. The healing Corner they say will generate around 9 Million USD alone per year. I think as Trulieve integrates there, they will label products with Trulieve logo that they are behind but maintain the store name.
Massachusetts on the other hand, I think they will label stores as Trulieve as they open and introduce their products out of the facility they just purchased. Will be interesting to see how they conduct the adult rec stores business. Maybe the 3 medical facilities will be Trulieve branded stores, and the Adult rec stores labeled something else? Will be fun to see.
Cali is an R&D location they say, I think they are networking and researching Rec and medical in that market moreso then focusing on expanding in a already saturated market.
I look for a similar approach in Massachusetts to the Florida model. Take large market share in Florida become a dominant go to brand that’s dependable. Repeat the process in Massachusetts.
Estimated for FL medical MJ market in 2021 are 1.1 Billion USD. Current 60+% market share is held by Trulieve... assuming they slide to 45%. That’s still roughly 500 Million a year in FL alone... say 35% net is 175 Million cash a year in their pockets out of FL alone. These number imo are conservative.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/798141/florida-cannabis-sales-value-forecast/
Massachusetts.
Still a very young market... projected at 139 Million for 2019. 1.8 Billion in 2025...
Say it doubles every year, 2021, 417 Million for Massachusetts. If Trulieve secures 35% market share. That’s nearly 146 Million. 35% net, say 51.1 Million cash.
Projection is fun, all it is, is projection. Nobody knows how things will turn out. But what is known, is the potential is huge. Think about it Trulieve could be making by 2021 potentially 650 Million a year in revenues. That’s crazy.
https://mjbizdaily.com/massachusetts-recreational-marijuana-sales-approach-140-million/
Knight. I bought 350 today at 9.80/9.88. Love these prices. Filled right away.
That would be awesome. No doubt the canntrust drama has beat up the sector. And acreage also recently got nicked I believe regarding not following proper state established regulations.
Mellow. I hear ya. But what seperates Trulieve from other MSO’s is their strategy to move and grow responsibly. Trulieve isn’t diluting us to oblivion, or issueing out mass warrants to hold us down. Trulieve is making good money, managing the float responsibly, and growing accordingly. They say time and again, and in the recent new release, “looking out for long term shareholder value”.
Trulieve doesn’t care much about the day to day price of their stock. They shouldn’t. They are are focused on their business, growing in an effective and responsible manner, and increasing profits and margins. Expansion is coming, cultivation expansion is coming, partnerships no doubt coming, edibles coming... Trulieve will reward its investors. Traders is a whole different game, and Trulieve isn’t going to make unwise moves and throw their company into large amounts of debt to appease traders.
We all would love to see the price move in relation to where the majority of it’s competitors trading multiples are! But we will get there. As we head into Q3 and into Q4 the price will climb accordingly to our earnings.
I think we pull a little further back. Maybe as far as 9.40’s - 9.50’s on Friday if we don’t bump. And I’m looking for recovery next week into the 10’s and 11’s again. We will see!
I think it’s pretty clear where you stand in the position as an investor. I think you belong on stockhouse
This stock is doing just fine. No worries here long term. Majority of the sector has experienced a large downtrend. This will perform and have its day.
Doesn’t surprise, pumping out over 40 Million milligrams a week lol I think it’s all a process, things will for sure get better as far as waits go. It’s no small feat serving 60+% of the states patients!
Not to mention the no questions asked return policy. No doubt people are taking advantage of the system, and people scrambling to get their months supply all at once to avoid waiting again on what they want.
They have a big special going on today.
Some great buying opportunities now and on the horizon
July 25
Overhang regarding Kim’s Husband isn’t a concern for me because Trulieve and Kim have repeatedly not been named as targets of the investigation. Burnette has also filed for a speedy trial, and also to have all charges dropped. Nothing regarding Kim’s husband is in the investordeck because it has nothing to do with Trulieve. Trulieve isn’t commenting on something that has nothing to do with them, it would only help out fear mongers agendas.
Regarding the actual REAL question you have regarding share unlock. It’s a valid short term concern. However as has been said here numerous times on this same question. It is highly unlikely that the remaining 70 Million shares or so that exist outside public trading, will all be introduced to the public float. Management will likely maintain 51% of the total O/S at the least, in order to maintain control of the company.
I expect shares to be introduced into the public float, at the most, will be 20-25 Million. Currently, O/S sits at around 32 Million.
I believe 9.42 - 11.47 USD is a decent trading range given our current earnings, likely above 100 Million USD or 54+ for Q2. Our EPS at 30 - 35x would put us in that range.
I suspect for the long game, yes, you should wait and see what happens before or a couple weeks after unlock, you may get in at a great bargain on some dips. I expect this to drag along, and not start moving hard until maybe end of Q3. But that’s all just my opinion.
The market does whatever it wants lol
One thing I found interesting is. “State of the art indoor grow facility that will be largely automated” that will be built in phases on their 84acre purchase in Jefferson County. It’s just fun speculation, but doesn’t that sound a lot like Auroras Larson projects “Sky Class” facilities? I know they are ramping up through Australis this year, particularly in Nevada. Wouldn’t that be interesting? Haha
New investor deck for July is out. Lots of great information.
https://www.trulieve.com/files/main/Trulieve_IR_Deck_July_2019.pdf
Couldn’t agree more.
I think we head into the low to mid 20 USD range by end of year. I think high 20’s and low to mid 30’s will be the year of 2020.
But who knows right? Haha anything is possible
I think 5200 daily patient visit is an average, some days more some days less. I think the average monthly spend per customer is a little more reliable figure for calculating where we are headed. Just my opinion though of course.
Ipman posted a pretty solid method for doing a speculative projection on this stock. He used the average monthly spending of customers in Q1 of 322.96. Got the number of total patients off the form 7, applied it to all three months for the Q to get a figure that should be in the ballpark. I used a conservative monthly added patients figure of 10,500. Here’s what I got.
Q1- 44.5
Q2- 54.8
Q3- 65.2
Q4- 75.4
Total FY19- 239.9 Million
Total patients end of Dec- 244,020
35% of 239.9 will come to 83,965,000 net
Divide by O/S of 112 Million = .75EPS
30x = 22.50 USD
35x = 26.25 USD
Being that I’m using conservative numbers, new stores will open, Edibles will likely come online soon, and patient count will likely be higher. I think we will definitely beat guidance.
Is 30.00 USD coming this year? It’s certainly possible, especially with the figures above.
Mind you that once Q2 reports, we will be at around 99.5 - 103 Million so far for this current year. Putting our EPS at around .31 - .33
.31
30x = 9.41 USD
35x = 10.98 USD
.33
30x = 9.74 USD
35x = 11.36 USD
We are right where we should be in my opinion, the market is giving us naturally accruing value as our earnings and profits increase. Add investor interest or a FOMO event to that and this thing could go nuts.
As for now, patience is key imo. This will reach new levels there is no doubt in my mind about that.
GLTA
All of those shares won’t be sold. That would mean management gives up control of the company, that’s not happening lol.
Shares that COULD be sold imo will be 20-25 Million. Average volume is 195,000. Assuming that average doesn’t drastically change.
If the average volume stays at 195,000, it should take 103 - 128 days from unlock to fully absorb all 20-25 Million shares IF they were dumped at once. Which I’d be surprised to see.
20 mil absorbing of shares = around 4 Nov
25 mil absorbing of shares = around 29 Nov
We will see how it all pans out. But seriously doubt to see this stay at 10 - 11USD all year. We will drive higher IMO through the fall and into the winter. Assuming of course we also don’t get hammered temporarily by the markets like what happened end of 2018.
All speculation of course!
I took April - June form 7 patient report numbers and did 100 bucks a month per patient per month.
Got 50,972,600 for the quarter.
I did the same for Jan - Mar. I got 41,313,700
I took the 44,500,000 - 41,313,700 and applied the difference to the April - June number.
3,186,300 + 50,972,600 = 54,158,900 USD.
All is speculation and we know how Trulieve surprises on their numbers. But using the above method, I’m feeling pretty confident we see 54+ Million in Q2. An increase that would be almost 10 Million from the previous Quarter.
Awesome stuff, I think we will see the valuation become more fair in August.
GLTA
Looking good. Should hear about the completion of Cali acquisition soon as well now that the process is at 99% complete. Just waiting on the state to give the ok.
Using a conservative monthly spend average of 100 per customer. At 181,020, that puts us in the range of 54-55 Million USD from here a quarter. I have a feeling we will beat guidance.
Quite the quiet day today for us.
Looks like Trulieve is putting out Slangs product on their shelves this week.
https://mailchi.mp/f9de7b084701/openvape-reserve-cartridges-coming-soon?e=f20644d92e
When your dealing with probably over 50 Million USD a quarter, I’m sure things get complicated. I’d rather them take time on their audited financials, and make sure it’s accurate numbers, then rush to please the market and we find out later there is inaccuracy issues with the earnings.
Bruce Linton essentially getting kicked out of Canopy Growth by the board might cause some sector wide ups and downs. If Canopy gets hammered this week as a reaction to the news, the majority of the sector loves to follow suit. We will see. Whatever sector wide reaction, if any, occurs... it would be very short term.
If Canopy replaces his position with someone impressive that the market loves, it will bounce right back. We will see, I know a lot of retail were Bruce fans.
Can’t wait for Trulieves Form 7. Hoping it drops on the CSE by Friday
What kind of cultivation capacity does our competition have in a state like Florida?
Trulieve investor deck advises an additional 48,000 sqft in cultivation capacity that will add another 5,720kg worth of production, estimated completion time Q2 2019.
This should be completed now or shortly, and will bring total sqft/total annual kg up towards. 708,000sqft / 37,816kgs.
750k sqft Jefferson County buildout on the way, figures will be higher, but using the above figures to gauge the same cultivation capabilities. Say 37,816(2) = 75,632 total annual kilograms.
75,632kg is 75,632,000 grams. Say we use 13$ per gram. That’s 983,216,000USD worth of product. 35% of that is 344,125,600 USD.
Who else has or is close to even having our current annual kg output, or close to what we will have in the very near future. Assuming Trulieve doesn’t continue anymore cultivation expansion next year. They did purchase 83 acres, a lot of room to add.
Trulieve is doing a fantastic job with supply chain management regardless of the struggle to meet the demand. All the reviews of product on YouTube 90% of the time review their product as top notch. Other producers, even Cura and Surterra can’t say the same.
Trulieve is putting out a constant crop rotation in their facilities of different strains to keep shelves stocked best they can based off current annual kg output capability.
I think Trulieve is being under-estimated, think about when they have upwards of 1 Million patients, the numbers don’t lie. Makes sense why their expansion brings total product available,based off current per gram prices, to about a billion worth of product in 2020.
The numbers don’t lie, Trulieves income potential in Florida alone is massive. And I have absolute faith they will do well in Massachusetts. If they keep our O/S under control, and we make it to a Billion in sales end of 2021, with 30-35% net profit. Look out!
Just stuff to think about. GLTA
Sure is a lot of buying going on today. Hopefully more long term holders and less traders. Looking good for a start to the week!
It may, it may not. only time and patience will tell. But what I do know, is no matter what happens. Trulieve isn’t going anywhere, and Q2 for April May and June will be a killer quarter. I’m a long here, so if we are held back a little it won’t concern me, since I’m not actively scalping my position. I have one position I scalp when we are in the 13-15 USD range, and another much larger position I’m holding for 2-3 years.
Initial IPO was 6CAD if I recall. And I’m not saying they won’t take some profits to reward themselves and get paid. But assuming they sell shares to market, and not insider to insider. 75Million shares most certainly WILL not be dumped into the open markets. Like Holdhigh expects around 50 Million total float, I believe it will end up being around the same.
Management isn’t going to give up majority control of the company.
Something else to keep in mind is their 250 Million dollar prospectus. They recently did that very shareholder friendly raise of 70Million. Because they sold all those units, and offered notes, only 1,740,000 new shares will be introduced into the tradable float, once all of them are exercised at 12.98USD or above.
This means they still have 180 Million dollars they could raise in various ways this year or next. Assuming they don’t do another gig like above, and they do a 100% dilutive share raise for it. Assuming they did it at a stupid low of 10USD (which wouldn’t make sense) it would still only be 18 Million, making our total O/S around 130 Million.
Another point is this isn’t Tilray, nor Tilray management. Trulieve so far has been kind to shareholders, and haven’t conducted toxic financing. Tilray also experienced an outrageous overvaluation, that is debatably still in play. Trulieve is under valued, and I wouldn’t bet management doesn’t know this.
75 Million shares unlocking doesn’t mean anything if 75 Million shares aren’t all 100% sold. The float has been steadily increasing from 9-11 Million to where we are now because of steady responsible introduction of shares to market, likely a lot of ben Adkins and his sons shares.
So. Unless 75 Million shares owned by management wants to sell 100% of their shares at once at market prices. I don’t think the pull back will be as much as bears and others are hoping for.
Personally I think the pull back will be minimal, and what will really happen, is a short term “holding back” of price. I think the large majority of dumping has already occurred, to get us to where we are now at around 32 Million public tradable float.
Absolutely. I can recall Trulieve touching on the supply shortage that’s not meeting the demand. And that they plan, or could plan, on wholesale options to dispensaries around the state. Another great way to put out inventory in a powerful way to minimize waste.
Drew.
I need to do more DD on that particular subject to see how it works and if there is a difference between REC delivery and medical delivery, as well as if any changes have occurred. Leafly put out an interesting article end of April touching on the subject. In the article it touches on the approval of delivery methods but with limitations to support small business owners in the delivery arena.
https://www.leafly.com/news/industry/massachusetts-gives-cannabis-delivery-the-green-light
24jg. Haven’t seen you around here, welcome to the board!
Only time will tell. Trulieve had first mover advantage in Florida. Their success in other states would be a big game changer. At that point the idea and business model would be proven, other companies would begin attempting to copy Trulieves business model. Hopefully by that time, Trulieves brand would prevail. And copy cats would fail.