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Each option =100 shares. Right now 2.5 call options in Dec are around .05cents. so if you buy 1 option, you pay 5 bucks for the right to buy 100 shares at 2.5 by Dec 21. If buyout....you buy $5 shares for 2.5. if the price never gets above 2.5.....let the option expire and your only out 5 bucks. Usually they cost more and have more strike prices but you get the idea.
Currently only have 2.50 and $5 strike prices. Pretty cheap, but just wish there were more choices. The $2.50 call options that expire in Dec and March may be worth a play..... currently I only hold a long position. No options right now.
Sometimes options are a better course if you want to go super long. Kinda frustrating with CRMD.... figured the options market would open up a little. Very few out there right now.
Call me crazy. IF FDA approved, basically ready to go and no other trials...... greater than $2B+. Roughly. Just my opinion.
No apologies needed brother. Elliot is on board with a buyout if they get fair market value in my opinion. I really think they are ready to cash out. They already tried to push buyout in 2015. When it didn't come to fruition, they waited (and damn near personally funded) the phase 3 trial to completion. Better BO offer with FDA approval, so I think we gotta get past that first. The QDIP with 5 additional years exclusively, the NOLS, and the pipeline add significantly to the primary drug Neutrolin. If everything works out....and I mean a lot of dominoes falling perfectly, we may be low balling what we may end with. Could be big. Still got risk and these are just my opinions.
While I concur partnership is probably the course they will go, I am not sold on it being the best future plan. Bare in mind that is only my opinion and I am in the minority. I just don't want to see the company end up getting a couple hundred million in milestones and some ongoing 10% royalties. Maybe they strike a better deal, but that is the norm. I prefer buyout. If they do try to take it to market themselves, we will get crushed with dillution and capital raises and not see an upside for a couple years....but if the product does work and the pipeline takes off, probably offers the best very long term upside. So I would lean towards BO, partnership, in-house in that order. Just my opinion.
No decision, not one can be made without Elliot's blessing. Elliot can only beneficially claim 10%. That does not include all their convertible notes that equal over twice that, it the warrants they own that they could exercise if wanted. They are more like 25-30% all in. They have been CRMD'S piggy bank. Just my opinion but I am 99% confident my statement is true.
I think we could get to scale, but would need a ton of capital.
My opinion, the end game started LY with the backstop. My personal opinion on everything
1. Going back, Elliot has invested millions with no return.
2. Elliot knows potential and doesn't want to give up the potential, but is getting frustrated and puts there guy in to oversee what the hell is going on.
3. In 2017 we finally figured out what was wrong with the trial and found CRO not properly following up and gathering info. Elliot sees 2018 as THE YEAR at that point.
4. Elliot now sees buyout coming....company needs money, and Elliot wants to increase ownership and lower their average.
5. Q4 2017 Elliot basically forces backstop agreement with series F convertible shares with a March 31 close pps exercise price less 10%.
6. Elliot (I hate to say this, but...) works with buddies to drive PPS down to nothing.
7. Instead of series F converting in .60's they not convert at .165. Instead of 3M shares, they got 13M at .16.
8. Elliot is now over 20% ownership at a low PPS. (Can only claim 10% beneficially) and they own something like 6-7M warrants.
10. Elliot loaded up for the 2018 payday.
11. I don't think Elliot wants a PO cause it would dilute their position....if money is needed, I predict DO to Elliot for more.
12. Now loaded, Elliot is waiting for final FDA and a 1B+ BO.
13. All just my opinions and spouting nothing but speculation.
Good luck to you!
Yes, the rarely discussed NOLS offer huge upside for Big Pharma to reduce future year's tax burden especially NJ based to take advantage of both state and federal. Another reason to think a potential BO may not be low-ball if one comes to fruition. Good luck to you!
Here is a curent list of current CRMD 13F fillings. Disclosure: not all Q2 fillings are complete yet....got till 8/14. If you click on the hedge fund, it will show all their current investments.
https://fintel.io/so/us/crmd
Maybe their landlord is interested?
Yeah, double warrant financing crushed em. Then the Elliot backstop with an exercise price as of March 31, 2018 didn't help at all. Just so happened after backstop was finalized the stock tumbled until 3/31. Regardless, I truly believe shareholder value is very important at this time based on recent past events. Hope I am right.....I am betting on it! Good luck to you
Let's hope! The potential is there if the dominoes fall right. I wouldn't be here if I thought it wasn't a winner Probably be a relatively quiet 2 weeks with exception to speculation and volatility depending on shareholder hand stregnth. Good luck to you.
I am always a big fan of being an active investor. I am sure they either have met or have scheduled to meet with the FDA on an approval route. I also think it is a good bet that the FDA will agree with DSMB to halt the trial. The bigger issue is if they will allow the NDA now or require another phase 3. Obviously, it would be in our short term interest, and long term to be quite honest, if they can go straight to market; however, I think more info will be required by the FDA than just the 28 events from this phase 3 interum analysis. WIth that, I think the meeting will be a little more complicated. Obviously they will use the results of the trial, but I think some of the discussions may be about utilizing other information as cross reference info to go along with the Phae 3 such as prior trials, current success and number of events from European use, etc. So, while it seems like a slam dunk, and I think it is at least a lay up, I also believe that there is some red tape to get through to ensure FDA is cmfortable allowing the NDA. The next shareholder meeting will be an exciting time and I think will reveal a lot. Financing plans, CRO negotiations, and what plan has been agreed upon between FDA and CRMD. It would be awesome, I agree, to get a PR with the plan ahead of time, but if nothing else, we have less than 2 weeks before we get at least some insight as to what the plan going forward is. Financing the company both near and long term is also a big issue, but as bad as CRMD has been in the past with raising capital, they have shown to be extremely shareholder friendly running on empty for about a year now. While this is good for dillution and shareholders, it has put us in a little pickle with AMEX compliance. I think the positive news has opened the door to many options for the company now, and whichever option they choose will be almost as important as the FDA approval. There has been a clear change in direction since last summer to be shareholder friendly, and I think that will continue in my honest opinion.
Let us know if you hear something back and good luck to you!
Right? Or so many experts in CRMD.
Agree. I just wanted to throw that out there. GL.
I meant they will have to at least provide an update on the CRO negotiations at the next ER. Should be next week.
Anyone who knows me on this board know I am a long term holding bull - but I also am honest. Looking for opinions out there. I think we could face some resistance between .75 and 1.10. Got a lot of warrants out there. Next up is about 4.1M $0.75 warrants that expire on September 10th, 2018. Over half are owned by Elliot and about a quarter are owned by insiders. I think both will let them ride till closer to the exercise date. That leaves about 1M left and I am not sure who owns them. I would think that if volume remains even close to the past few days, we should blow through them pretty quick. Heck, I wouldn't be suprised if we blew through a few yesterday with guys taking a 3 or 4% profit when we got close to .80 yesterday. There are a ton in the $1 range that don't expire till 2022. I think it is more of a bump in the road and we will continue with our momentum, just wanted to point out we could face a little resistance. Still long, still bullish, and still a 10x win in my honest opinion.
They will at least provide an update if nothing else.
She was brought in primarily to get the damn drug through trial cause the CRO screwed up so bad. She was the best hire we have made in a long time. She is now overseeing getting the drug through FDA and possible future trials. GL.
You too brother! We're only about a mile into a 26 mile marathon.
Hope so, but I think that particular doc is irrelevant. I believe it has to do with Liz Mason's employment contract that came out in 2Q that has milestones that were left blank.
Regardless, this kind of volume means something. Congrats on profits so far. Big things ahead for long CRMDers! All my opinions only. Good luck to all!
That isn't the whole story. Elliot owns WAY more than what they can beneficial claim. Full ownership and description of what I am saying below including all stock series types and conversion ratios along with warrants held.
"Due to the Ownership Limitation (as defined below), Elliott Associates, L.P. (“Elliott Associates”) may be deemed the beneficial owner of 8,614,866 shares of our common stock through securities held by it and by Manchester Securities Corp., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Elliott Associates (“Manchester”), and Elliott International, L.P. (“Elliott International”), the investment advisor of which is an affiliate of the investment advisor of Elliott Associates. Elliott Associates beneficially holds: (i) 2,833,470 shares of our common stock held by Elliott International, (ii) 1,333,398 shares of our common stock held by Elliott Associates, (iii) May 2013 warrants held by Manchester exercisable for 500,000 shares of our common stock, (iv) 52,500 shares of our Series C-2 non-voting convertible preferred stock held by Elliott Associates convertible into 525,000 shares of our common stock, (v) October 2013 warrants held by Elliott Associates exercisable for 262,500 shares of our common stock, (vi) 97,500 shares of our Series C-2 non-voting convertible preferred stock held by Elliott International convertible into 975,000 shares of our common stock, (vii) October 2013 warrants held by Elliott International exercisable for 487,500 shares of our common stock, (viii) 73,962 shares of our Series D non-voting convertible preferred stock held by Manchester convertible into 1,479,240 shares of our common stock, (ix) March 2015 Warrants held by Manchester convertible into 200,000 shares of our common stock, (x) May 2017 Series A warrants held by Elliott International convertible into 1,360,001 shares of our common stock, (xi) May 2017 Series A warrants held by Elliott Associates convertible into 640,000 shares of our common stock, (xii) May 2017 Series B warrants held by Elliott International convertible into 1,360,001 shares of our common stock, (xiii) May 2017 Series B warrants held by Elliott Associates convertible into 640,000 shares of our common stock, (xiv) 89,623 shares of our Series E non-voting convertible preferred stock held by Manchester convertible into 1,959,759 shares of our common stock, (xv) 1,360 shares of our Series F non-voting convertible preferred stock held by Elliott International convertible into 2,147,142 shares of our common stock (subject to adjustment), (xvi) 640 shares of our Series F non-voting convertible preferred stock held by Elliott Associates convertible into 1,010,419 shares of our common stock (subject to adjustment), (xvii) November 2017 warrants exercisable for 384,103 shares of our common stock held by Elliott International, and (xviii) November 2017 warrants exercisable for 180,755 shares of our common stock held by Elliott Associates (the May 2013 warrants, the October 2013 warrants, the March 2015 Warrants, the May 2017 Series A warrants, the May 2017 Series B warrants, the November 2017 warrants and all shares of preferred stock shall collectively be referred to herein as the “Convertible Securities”). However, in accordance with Rule 13d-4 under the Exchange Act, the number of shares of our common stock into which the Convertible Securities are convertible or exercisable, as applicable, are limited pursuant to the terms of the Convertible Securities to that number of shares of our common stock which would result in Elliott Associates having aggregate beneficial ownership of, with respect to the May 2013 warrants, the October 2013 warrants, the March 2015 Warrants, the May 2017 Series A warrants, the May 2017 Series B warrants, the November 2017 warrants, the Series C-2 preferred stock, the Series D preferred stock, the Series E preferred stock and the Series F preferred stock, 9.99% of the total issued and outstanding shares of our common stock (the "Ownership Limitation"). Elliott Associates disclaims beneficial ownership of any and all shares of our common stock issuable upon any conversion or exercise of the Convertible Securities if such conversion or exercise would cause Elliott Associates’ aggregate beneficial ownership to exceed or remain above the applicable Ownership Limitation (as is currently the case). Therefore, Elliott Associates disclaims beneficial ownership of any shares of our common stock, issuable upon any conversion or exercise of the May 2013 warrants, the October 2013 warrants, the March 2015 Warrants, the May 2017 Series A warrants, the May 2017 Series B warrants, the November 2017 warrants, the Series C-2 preferred stock, the Series D preferred stock, the Series E preferred stock and the Series F preferred stock, which conversion of exercise would be prohibited by the Ownership Limitation. The business address of Elliott Associates is 40 West 57th Street, 30th Floor, New York, New York 10019. Based solely on information contained in a Schedule 13D filed with the SEC on November 13, 2017 by Elliott Associates and other information known to us.
9
(2)
Consists of (i) 225,373 shares of our common stock, and (ii) 312,500 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options.
(3)
Consists of (i) 102,083 shares of our common stock, and (ii) 46,250 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options.
(4)
Consists of (i) 38,861 shares of our common stock, and (ii) 198,438 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options.
(5)
Consists of (i) 107,409 shares of our common stock, and (ii) 185,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options. Does not include an aggregate of 85,119 shares of our common stock that were deferred as director fee compensation and that are not issuable until after the individual’s cessation of service with our Board.
(6)
Consists of (i) 2,115,121 shares of our common stock, (ii) 25,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon the exercise of stock options, (iii) 500,000 shares of common stock upon conversion of Series C-3 non-voting preferred stock, and (iv) 2,250,000 shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of warrants.
(7)
Consists of (i) 294,166 shares of our common stock, and (ii) 90,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options.
(8)
Consists of 452,083 shares of our common stock, and (ii) 25,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options.
(9)
Consists of 321,136 shares of our common stock, (ii) 25,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options, (iii) 22,500 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of warrants, and (iv) 15,000 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of warrants through Wade Capital Corporation Money Purchase Plan, an entity for which Mr. Lefkowitz has voting and investment control.
(10)
Consists of (i) the following held by our directors and executive officers (A) 3,656,232 shares of our common stock, (B) 907,188 shares of our common stock issuable upon exercise of stock options, (C) 2,287,500 shares of our common stock upon exercise of warrants, and (D) 500,000 shares of our warrants upon conversion of Series C-3 non-voting preferred stock, as referenced in footnotes 2 through 9."
Got about 82M OS. Take out insiders and long institutional ownership and you got a float around 65M or so. Considering the float (as I see it), the 3 day volume is reaching absurd levels! We have replaced day and swing traders holding in the .20's with holders in the .30's replaced .30's with .40 holders, and are working on replacing .4's with .5 holders. I am not a swing or day traders, but good for you guys!! Along the way, we are picking up more long term retail holders that are focused on the huge long term upside. Shares are gonna be hard to come by pretty soon and should result in less resistance and continued bigger gains. It will only take 1 PR with a hint of FDA to blow the roof off. Still had about 15% of shares traded short. They could make a run at us, but personally I think they are taking crazy pills. How they handle capital is the key, but I think they got something up their sleeve. Great to be green again! Let's hope for continuation next week..... everything points to continued upward movement IMO. Also, Gotta love me some Twit action. All the geniuses now comparing entries in some kind of "I am smarter than everyone else competition".....funny as hell, but good for them! Everything above are only my opinions and I am not a professional!
Personal opinion, accumulation today under .5. Time to run it down to engage stop losses.....they will run it down as far as they can. Once it gets to a point, will buy everything back up to .5. it's only 90 minutes into trading. Shorts should take advantage. Will be winners and losers with short positions today. Longs prevail IMO though. Good luck to all!
Thanks man. Good luck to you.
That is a very strong possibility, especially if volume remains high. Good luck!
That's true. $3 PPS get us to a MC of roughly $250 M (roughly $390M fully dilluted). This is a potential $1B drug with other pipeline products. Intellectual property is probably worth $250M alone and that is an undervaluation. As always, just my opinions. Shorts will take a run at it today, but I think we are good to see another strong day by close. Good luck buddy!
Congrats to day traders who made some profits and ongoing good luck to fellow longs as we play out this ride. And while I wish nothing but the best for all.....any shorts who had to cover or are nervous right now, I really don't feel bad for you....you've been making plenty of profits off my losses for over a year! We still aren't even close to a proper valuation.....if we go up 200% today we wouldn't be close to a proper valuation imo. I have never lost faith in my long position and I am not going anywhere. Cash concerns, yes. But the product works, major expenses are behind us, current revenue streams overseas will grow based on this news, NDA will be filed and approved soon. BO, partnership options are now much stronger. Elliot continues to hold their large position and has a lot at stake. They will win long term. PPS isn't even at insider holding levels yet and you know they won't lose. Sorry for rambling guys! Good luck to everyone!!
Yes. Was awarded prior to trial start.
Good luck with your future investments.
I agree. July has been good. 2 patent applications approved both of which were published on July 5. DSMB now recommendation trial halt. Expenses now greatly reduced in Q3 & Q4 due to trial halt.
Now expect NDA application. If approved, which is likely, I expect Europe and Middle East sales to increase based on FDA approval. If we go direct to market in US, CRMD already has manufacturing and distribution channels in place.
Big question is how they plan to address capital concerns, but in my opinion, the great news opens up a lot more opportunities.
I expect to hear a lot between now and Q2 earnings call. Just my opinions....good luck to all.
I think Elliot gets involved and negotiates with CRMD. Remember, Elliot once impounded an Argentina Navy ship when they couldn't pay bonds Elliot held, and they got the president of South Korea impeached for manipulating a company Elliot was invested in. Just my opinion. CRMD should get reimbursed for their expenses at a minimum. But I also believe reimbursement of at least a portion of fees paid to CRO should occur. Then you could make a valid case for destruction of company value via a negligence claim. I just don't see how CRMD doesn't get a decent settlement. This is total speculation, and very opinionated. I am sure CRO has a story to tell also. But CRMD put CRO in charge of this double blind trial. CRMD should not have been involved at all!!
I think I underestimated weak hands. I guess we have to wait till we replace bagholders in the .20's with new blood. Their early profit taking and panic IMO is making premarket and early buyers panic take losses. Just my opinion but I would guess big players just seeing how it shakes out this AM and then will start buying. I will never argue with profit taking, I just think they are leaving a lot on the table. Just my opinions and we will see how it goes. Regardless of PPS, good news for us longs.
Right! We are halfway to the perfect scenerio. Trial halt for efficacy (check) and financial settlement from CRO. Can we make it 2 for 2? If so, MC reaches $250M IMO. Capital is only thing keeping it down.
Yeah man! In the green for the first time since Q3 2017!
While I was hoping the trial would halt for efficacy, but I was honestly thinking it would just be good results and trial continue. I am a little shocked to be honest. I don't like throwing out wild PPS guesses cause I fear I could lead someone wrong. But the MC IMO should be +200M and I don't plan to sell anything until it gets to at least 100M. Things can always change, but I plan to ride this out for a while unless something drastic happens..
Congrats longs. Great news today!!!
This is true. I definitely bought before the crowd! Good luck to you!