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That may be true in the beginning, but we'll see what happens when the market realizes that the fed (due to inflation) won't be able to keep printing $120b per month.
With Biden planning to send an additional $1400 to a large % of the American population as well as extending the bonus unemployment into perpetuity, I think the market will sustain this for a little while longer.
Throughout the pandemic the common theme was that the market was forward looking, and it was looking past the pandemic. Thus, it roared back despite the economy.
It is my opinion that a synchronized global recovery is going to trigger significant inflation. Just look at any commodity chart. They've virtually all gone parabolic. There are a lot of supply constraints bubbling up. Several auto manufacturers are halting production because of supply constraints. Good luck trying to buy a graphics card for a computer.
The 5 year forward inflation expectation keeps trending higher, and is back above 2%. The end of this pandemic is very likely to trigger the inflation outcome that many have feared from all of this reckless fiscal behavior.
The fed has a history of being behind the curve at inflection points in inflation. I believe the market will sniff this out long before the fed. I don't know when the market will turn, but I suspect it is closer then all of the pundits are saying. It is very possible at some point in 2021 we could see the inverse of 2020. A market that is moving down while the economy is doing well.
CARV having a good day. I sold my position.
Scott Minerd just uttered new paradigm on CNBC. This is 1999 all over again.
worthy there is probably truth in that. It will be interesting to see how these new investors navigate the bursting of this bubble.
Good post sskillz. I agree with your frustration over valuations. There really is no debate that we have reached extreme valuations. The problem is that we are in a speculative market fueled by relentless central bank liquidity. There will be a day when speculation turns to risk aversion, and then valuations will come back to earth.
No one knows when risk aversion will overtake speculation, but I believe inflation will be the catalyst. I also expect smart money to react to this before it actually shows up in the feds numbers. It wouldn't shock me it this happens far sooner then most people expect.
research PSAC is another spac that is reported to be in negotiations with electric vehicle company Faraday & Future. https://www.ff.com/
gilead thanks for the heads up on Brave. I'm going to check it out. I do use Chrome and firefox currently, but I'm not experiencing much lag. I usually have 4 Chrome browsers open with probably 40 plus tabs in total. Were you using any extensions with Chrome? I use adblocker plus, ghostery, Ublock, and https everywhere.
bbotcs I'm still holding some EDUC. They should have a good report, so I think it is worth holding into earnings.
LMAO is this the ultimate sign of a top?
LMFAO filed an S-1 for a new spac to trade under the ticker symbol LMAO.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1831868/000156459021000649/lmao-s1.htm
hweb re: AVNW what are your thoughts on adj ebitda guidance?
hweb - I own some frd. They said in their last press release that tubular prices don't respond as quickly to steel price movements, but they also took some inventory write downs when prices were depressed. Those write downs should boost margins when they sell that inventory.
I like the chart of USAP better then frd, but I think they will both be beneficiaries of the climb in steel prices and post pandemic improvement in demand.
SFL pays a hefty 9.5% dividend at the current price as well.
I jumped on a couple of your picks. SFL is currently my largest holding, and I'm holding it for higher prices.
I also own USAP. USAP should be releasing earnings around the 20th. SCHN announced earnings today and they had a good beat. Based on that I think USAP is a good hold into earnings.
USAP and SCHN usually have very similar price movements, and they have diverged significantly since March. SCHN has climbed to a five year high ( 10 to 38.77) while USAP has climbed from 5 to 8. If USAP closes that divergence it would equate to a price in the upper twenties.
I love the media. Shots have been fired. Oh sorry! They were knocking on the door. Don't believe everything you hear.
I have a different definition of a coup. This looks more like an act of desperation from someone that can't accept defeat. This is not a serious threat.
They got a new shipment of ink at the federal reserve, and they are going to keep buying the stock market by sending checks to the robinhooders. Modern monetary theory and a vaccination are setting us up for the roaring twenties part 2. There's nothing to fear. Stocks will go up forever, or something like that.
CARV I picked up a small position. It has a 620k float. With bank stocks getting some love, this could be worth watching.
DIT up $15 to 122. 6400s is crazy volume for dit and its 180k float.
hweb none that I've seen.
KBSF had a large bid (46k) show up in the last few minutes before the close. I thought it might carry over into the after market. I'm still holding it for now.
JAN is rocking in the after hours. I looked at it, but they filed a prospectus for up to 100m on Dec 23. That kept me away.
KBSF is a low float from Larry's list that I picked up today.
I haven't read the legislation, but it sounds like it will begin to be phased out.
HDSN (1.06) put out a press release this morning. I wonder if this could lead to a significant boost in revenues? If HFC supply gets constrained, prices could spike.
PEARL RIVER, N.Y., Dec. 29, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Hudson Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: HDSN), a leading provider of innovative and sustainable solutions for optimizing performance and improving efficiency of commercial and industrial chiller plants and refrigeration systems, commented today on the Omnibus/Covid-19 law passed by Congress, and signed by the President. The law includes language in Section 103, Division S that would require the phasedown of virgin production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), while increasing opportunities for reclamation of HFCs.
Brian F. Coleman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Hudson Technologies commented, “We are very pleased with the Omnibus/Covid-19 Relief package, which includes the phasedown of virgin production of HFC refrigerants. We believe this law will go a long way to help the country continue its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential, while growing the reclamation opportunity for our industry.
“Hudson’s founder, Kevin J. Zugibe, PE, built our Company around his vision to promote sustainability and a circular economy in the refrigerant industry. As such, one of the cornerstones of Hudson’s operations is the reclamation of refrigerant and the complementary services we offer to support reclamation and system optimization. Our industry, along with many NGOs, has been working diligently to assist the Federal government’s development of a program for the orderly phasedown of virgin HFC production and use. Similar to the previous phaseout directed at ozone depleting substances (“ODS”), such as R-22, this legislation will commence the EPA’s path to begin rulemaking to accomplish the goals of an HFC phasedown. An important difference between this legislation versus the ODS phaseout is that when the EPA and refrigerant industry embarked on that phasedown to the eventual phaseout of virgin supply of ODS, the reclamation industry was in its infancy. Today, the reclamation industry is established and strong, with Hudson representing approximately 35% of all refrigerant reclamation activity in the U.S. Reclamation is a key component of the orderly phaseout of refrigerants and the new law is designed to assist the EPA to promote the growth of reclamation during the anticipated HFC phasedown. We view this legislation as a victory at the close of a difficult year. We are excited about Hudson’s future reclamation opportunities related to HFCs, and remain focused on advancing Kevin’s goals and principles.”
hweb I'm still holding some shares. It is impossible to predict the top on these, but I've locked in enough profit to let a few shares ride for now.
re: uuu - They don't halt the low floats in the after hours. That is my guess.
uuu flying in after hours
blindman28 UUU did report .31 eps in the most recent quarter, so it does have that going for it :)
UUU is a low float that I continue to hold.
SFL i picked up some shares as well. Thanks for the idea.
hweb thanks for the thoughts. I'm in the camp of trying to hold off on selling some positions until January. That will probably backfire.
Yesterday I hedged my long exposure with an SPY short. IWM may have been a better choice.
Based on the Buffet indicator of total market capitalization to GDP, we are now over 180% versus a peak of 159% in 2000. It may keep running, but were in uncharted waters.
gtim 2.57 +.23 is getting some love today. I took some off the table.
What is your gut feeling hweb?
Good trading.
sif 6.50s I couldn't hold off from taking profits.
re: sif hweb I saw that as well. 2020, however, is very likely to be the trough for orders, and with the improved operating margin, this could be the beginning of an uptrend for sif.
sif nelson my quick calculation was in that neighborhood as well.