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SPX CYCLES BEGINNING OF THE YEAR UPDATE: The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.77. The Yearly Bull Cycle Y-E-2 continues in it's 15th year, projected high 10331.27 (ATH), the high is due 12/31/34. The Quarterly Bull Cycle Q-2 continues in it's 5th Quarter, projected high 7596.37(ATH), the high is due 3/31/25. The Monthly Bull Cycle M-2 continues in it's 9th month, projected high 5580.16 (ATH), at the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28 (ATH), the high will be due 2/28/25. The Weekly Bull Cycle W-E-2 continues in it's 9th week, projected high 4986.27 (ATH), the high is due 3/22/24. Today at the close there is the possibility of a Daily D-S-1 (Overdue) projected low 4670.70, the low will be due today. Today at the close of the 1st hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-E-1 (Overdue) projected low 4665.71. Due to the confirmation of the 60-E-1 a UPRO Buy Signal is currently active below 51.11. Today at the close there is the possibility of a 60-SC-1 (Overdue) projected low 4604.35, the low will be due tomorrow at the 3rd hour. If the 60-SC-1 gets confirmed another UPRO Buy Signal will become active below 49.02 and a SPXU Sell Signal will become active above 9.54.
SPX Cycles End of the Year Report:
End of the Year 60 min cycle averages:
As you can see the cycles have been very consistent over the period 2011 to 2023. I expect that trend will continue.
Significant changes from 60 min Cycles from 2022 to 2023:
The average # of 60 min cycles (Bull/Bear) for All Years is 124.46, in 2022 there was only 113 60 min cycles, and this year it was up 4 cycles to 117, which indicates more extended cycles getting confirmed.
The % gain (Bull Cycles) from 2022 to 2023 dropped from 2.61% to 1.56%, the % decline (Bear Cycles) dropped from 2.70% to 1.35%. Note that the % gain & % decline is just below the All Years % gain & % decline, so pretty consistent.
The projected accuracy (Bear Cycles) from 2022 to 2023 dropped from -69.79 to -23.57, this means that the 60 min Bear Cycles on average exceeded their projections, but this year they exceeded them on average by a lesser amount. The projected accuracy is well above the All Years projected accuracy of -3.31, so SPX Cycles 60 min Bear Cycles on average greatly exceed the Bear Cycle projections.
The projected accuracy (Bull Cycles) from 2022 to 2023 dropped from 69.67 to 29.03, this means that the 60 min Bull Cycles on average exceeded their projections, but this year they exceeded them on average by a lesser amount. The projected accuracy is well above the All Years projected accuracy of 3.02, so SPX Cycles 60 min Bull Cycles on average greatly exceed the Bull Cycle projections.
Looking at the 60 min Cycle Points and Cycle Hours:
In 2022 the Bear Cycles averaged 8 more Cycle Points than the Bull Cycles.
This year the Bull Cycles averaged 7 more Cycle Points than the Bear Cycles.
SPX Cycles Portfolio:
2023 has been the best year ever for SPX Cycles.
During 2023 there was 1700 shares of UPRO Bought for a total 69733.00 & 2000 shares sold for a total of 120531.50
Outlook for 2024:
It looks like 2024 should be even a better year. The SPX is projected to reach 5000 by May and possibly 5500 to 6000 by the end of 2024.
January 2024 The Yearly Y-E-2 will continue in it's 15th year, projected high 10331.27, the high is due 12/31/2034
January 2024 The Quarterly Q-2 will continue in it's 5th Quarter, projected high 7596.37, the high is due 3/31/2025
March 2024 the Monthly is projected to confirm a M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/2025
April 2024 the Weekly is projected to confirmed a W-SC-2 (Extreme Overdue), projected high 5072.54, the high will be due 5/17/24
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly confirmed a W-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4986.27, the high is due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the open on 4/8/24, there is the possibility of a Weekly W-SC-2 (Extreme Overdue) projected high 5072.54, the high will be due 5/17/24. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly confirmed a W-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4986.27, the high is due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the open on 4/8/24, there is the possibility of a Weekly W-SC-2 (Extreme Overdue) projected high 5072.54, the high will be due 5/17/24. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.72. Today at the close of the 3rd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-1 (Extreme Overdue) projected low 4735.79. Tuesday at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-1 (Overdue) projected low 4665.71, the low will be due Tuesday at the 3rd hour. If the 60-E-1 is confirmed a UPRO Buy Signal will become active below 51.18, this will be the 1st buy signal of the new year. Today at the close the Weekly confirmed a W-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4986.27, the high is due 3/22/24.
SPX Cycles Quick update. Today at the close of the 1st hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (Overdue) projected low 4759.82. Today at the close of the 3rd hour there is the possibility of a 60-1 (Extreme Overdue) projected low 4735.79, the low will be due today at the 3rd hour. There is a slight possibility of a 60 min 60-E-1 (due 12/30/23) today at the close of either the 6th or 7th hour with a projected low of 4665.71, the low will be due Tuesday at the 3rd hour. If the 60-E-1 is confirmed a UPRO Buy Signal will become active below 51.08, it will become the 2nd UPRO Buy Signal of the UPRO Bull Cycle that is ending today. I will be out the rest of today, so the next report will be the end of the day report after the market has closed. This weekend I will provide an SPX Cycles end of the year report.
The 16th UPRO Bull Cycle this year has ended. Due to the confirmation of the 60-S-1 the 16th UPRO Bull Cycle has ended, the average is 15.4 cycles per year. This cycle lasted 8 trading days, the average is 17.46 trading days. During this cycle there was 1 buy signal, the average is 2.78 buy signals per cycle. During this cycle I did not add any UPRO positions. During this cycle I sold 100 shares of UPRO at 55.03 per share. I will forward 600 shares of UPRO & 100 shares of SPXL to the next UPRO Bull Cycle that will start on 1/2/24. This year there was a total of 51 buy signals (a buy signal is equal to 100 shares), I bought 2000 shares of UPRO at an average price of 39.99 and sold 2700 shares at an average price of 46.76.
I'm sure there will be some adjustments along the way. The Space boom hasn't even started yet.
The BIG Weekly W-E-2 gets confirmed tomorrow. So if we don't hit a ALL TIME HIGH tomorrow, I expect we hit it next week. The W-E-2 will last a long time.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly made new cycle highs at 4793.30. Tomorrow at the close the Weekly will likely confirm a W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly made new cycle highs at 4793.30. Tomorrow at the close the Weekly will likely confirm a W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.70. The UPRO Sell Signal remains active above 57.82. Tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-S-1 (Overdue) projected low 4759.82, the low will be due tomorrow at the 1st hour. Tomorrow at the close the Weekly will likely confirm a W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99 (ATH), the high will be due 3/22/24.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly made new cycle highs at 4785.39. At the close on Friday there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly made new cycle highs at 4785.39. At the close on Friday there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SOLD, UPRO, 100 shares at 55.03, this is due to the confirmation of the 60-SC-2
SOLD, UPRO, 100 shares at 55.03, this is due to the confirmation of the 60-SC-2
SPX Cycles Update. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.72. Today at the opening of the 4th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-SC-2 (due 12/31/23) projected high 4858.33, the high is due Thursday at the 3rd hour. Due to the confirmation of the 60-SC-2, a UPRO Sell Signal is currently active above 57.84.
Hi Twilson,
Currently no. But that will be something I will take a look at in the future.
I expect it would be a very low percent that the cycle is confirmed exactly on the due date.
If you look at the "Completed SPX Cycles Chart" that I post each time a cycle ends. it shows the "Due date" and the Date/Time/Hour it was confirmed.
So far this year 137 Overdue (OD) Extreme Overdue (EO) cycles have been confirmed out of 316 cycles. I have only had 20 that was confirmed exactly on the due date, most of them were at the 60 min level. This Friday the Weekly W-E-2 will get confirmed exactly on it's due date, that is very rare. The Monthly, Quarterly & Yearly will normally miss their due dates by months & years, either come in way early or way late.
My UPRO Buy Signals are the 60-E-1 & 60-SC-1 Cycles, the 60-E-1 averages 3 per month and the 60-SC-1 averages 1 per month.
My UPRO Sell Signal is the 60-SC-2 which averages 1 per month.
The UPRO Bull Cycle averages 3 Buy Signals (60-E-1/60/SC-1) per month and a Sell Signal averages 1 every 17 trading days. This year the longest was 39 trading days and the shortest was 4 trading days.
There are a lot of factors that determine when a cycle gets confirmed. The 60 min cycles are the most consistent, followed by the Daily cycles. I provide a lot of data that will give clues on when a higher level Bull/Bear cycle might be arriving. Right now it's a Bull Market so the Bull Cycles have the advantage.
This year the 60 min Bull cycles are averaging 66 points per cycle and the 60 min Bear cycles are averaging 58 points per cycle.
Hope this helps.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly is OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly put in new cycle highs at 4784.72. At the close on Friday there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly is OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly put in new cycle highs at 4784.72. At the close on Friday there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Report & Charts. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.72. Tomorrow at the opening of the 4th hour there is the possibility of a 60-SC-2 (due 12/31/23) projected high 4858.33, the high will be due Thursday at the 3rd hour. If the 60-SC-2 is confirmed a UPRO Sell Signal will become active above 57.84.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.73. Today at the close of the 6th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4815.78, the high is due Tuesday at the 7th hour. Wednesday at the opening of the 4th hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-SC-2 (due 12/31/23) projected high 4858.33, the high will be due Thursday at the 3rd hour. Friday at the close there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24.
SPX Cycles Update. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.73. Today at the close of the 2nd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-2 (due 12/27/23) projected high 4758.06 (reached). Today at the close of the 6th hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4815.78, the high will be due Tuesday at the 7th hour.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.73. Today during the closing hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-2 (Overdue) projected high 4738.72 (reached). Tomorrow at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60-2 (due 12/27/23) projected high 4758.06, the high will be due tomorrow at the 3rd hour.
SPX Cycles Update. The Daily & Weekly are OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.73. Today at the close of the 2nd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-1 (Overdue) projected low 4720.68 (reached). Today at the close of the 5th hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-1 (Overdue) projected low 4650.83, the low will be due tomorrow at the 2nd hour. If the 60-E-1 is confirmed a UPRO Buy Signal will become active below 50.78.
SPX Cycle Long Range Projection Chart. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly again made new cycle highs at 4778.01. At the close on 12/29/23 there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycle Long Range Projection Chart. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly again made new cycle highs at 4778.01. At the close on 12/29/23 there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.75. Today at the close the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (due 12/20/23) projected low 4744.64 (reached). Tomorrow at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-1 (Overdue) projected low 4720.68 (reached), the low will be due tomorrow at the 2nd hour. The Daily closed below it's UTL. So tomorrow at the close there is the possibility of a Daily D-S-1 (Overdue) projected low 4655.80, the low will be due tomorrow.
The 60 min 60-E-2 (Overdue) still has not been confirmed. The 60 min MACD Histo (12,26,9) remains in the red, it must be green (above the zero line) for the 60-E-2 to get confirmed.
If the 60-E-2 does get confirmed today, the 60 min 60-SC-2 will also get confirmed as the 60-E-2 average duration has been exceeded.
At this point I am hoping for a 60 min 60-S-1 (due 12/20/23) which will reset the 60 min Bull Cycle projections.
The 60 min 60-E-2 (Overdue) still has not been confirmed. The 60 min MACD Histo (12,26,9) remains in the red, it must be green (above the zero line) for the 60-E-2 to get confirmed.
If the 60-E-2 does get confirmed today, the 60 min 60-SC-2 will also get confirmed as the 60-E-2 average duration has been exceeded.
At this point I am hoping for a 60 min 60-S-1 (due 12/20/23) which will reset the 60 min Bull Cycle projections.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly again made new cycle highs at 4768.69. At the close on 12/29/23 there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly again made new cycle highs at 4768.69. At the close on 12/29/23 there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The 60 min, Daily & Weekly are OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.92. Once again the 60 min 60-E-2 was not able to get confirmed. Tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is a possibility of a 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4822.82. If the 60-E-2 gets confirmed. Then tomorrow at the opening of the 4th hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-SC-2 (due 12/31/23) projected high 4865.44, the high will be due Thursday at the 3rd hour. If the 60-SC-2 gets confirmed a UPRO Sell Signal will become active above 58.33.
They are now rushing to get in, they are scared they are going to miss out on the big move LOL!!!
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly put in new cycle highs at 4749.52. At the close on 12/29/23 there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. The Weekly remains OB. Today the Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly put in new cycle highs at 4749.52. At the close on 12/29/23 there is the possibility of a Weekly W-E-2 (due 12/29/23) projected high 4993.99, the high will be due 3/22/24. At the close on 3/29/24, there is the possibility of a Monthly M-E-2 (due 3/4/24) projected high 6473.28, the high will be due 2/28/25. At the close on 3/31/26, there is the possibility of a Quarterly Q-E-2 (due 6/8/29) projected high 19001.05, the high will be due 9/30/2030. At the opening on 1/1/36, there is the possibility of a Yearly Y-SC-2 (due 12/7/69) projected high 15308.39, the high will be due 12/31/41.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. The Daily & Weekly remain OB. The SPXU Buy Signal remains active below 9.95. The 60 min 60-E-2 failed to get confirmed today. Tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4822.82, the high will be due tomorrow at the closing hour.
The 60-E-2 is projected to be confirmed today at the close of the 6th hour, tomorrow at the closing hour the high is due.
Merry Christmas!!