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Bob;
Nice to see they're finally shipping. On the other hand, this shipment works out to a little more than $1 million in revenue.
Early in the year, projections were for ~$100 million in revenue in 2007. Looks like they might do $2-3 million for the year.
Have you heard anything about the status of their application for a regular mine permit, as opposed to their current small mine permit?
A1
Baja Mining (BAJ.TO, BAJFF.PK) posts definitive feasibility study.
Baja Mining posted a DFS today. At an 8% discount rate, the after-tax NPV is $2.3 billion at current metals prices. Assuming $1.50/lb copper, $15/lb cobalt, and $1,200/ton zinc sulfate, the after-tax NPV is $700 million. Mine life is ~ 25 years.
http://www.bajamining.com/_resources/nr2007_05_29.pdf
The mine is slated to start production in Q2 2009. Capital costs will be ~ $560 million.
There are currently 108 million shares, and 34 million options and warrants outstanding. Current share price is $1.95 Canadian.
Anyone have any thoughts on how the valuation of this one stacks up to valuations of other juniors?
TIA
A1
A further update on my experience with TATF. When I talked to Terence Waugh, he promised me that he would find out the status of the trees I purchased. He e-mailed me on Wednesday, May 9th telling me that the trees were now scheduled to be thinned this coming July, which is 8 months after I was originally told by Steve Brunner (the co-owner and co-founder of TATF) that the trees had already been thinned.
I responded to Terence Waugh's e-mail, and told him that I believe the status of the trees I had purchased from TATF had been misrepresented by TATF, and asked for either a 10% refund on the money I had invested, to compensate me for the discrepancy between the actual status of the trees and what I had been told, or for TATF to buy the trees back from me at the price I paid.
So far I haven't received a reply. :( :(
A1
Todd (and others);
I wanted to share my experiences with TATF so far. I have to say that I'm very disappointed, and, in fact, I'm wondering if TATF is a scam.
I bought some 10-year old teak trees in December of 2006, and some more in January of 2007. In the original e-mail I (and, I am sure many others) received from Steve Brunner in November of 2006, it was stated that the ten-year old teak trees had recently undergone a thinning. Yet as recently as April of 2007, in an e-mail from Josephine Clausen, who works for TATF in 'Tree Owner Relations', I was told that my trees had not yet been identified and marked because the thinning had not yet been completed. I waited a month since Josephine Clausen's April e-mail, and then e-mailed again, asking for an update. This time I received no reply. I called and talked to Terence Waugh, a Tree Owner Relations manager, and just got more vague promises that he would contact the forester responsible for my trees for an update. I got the same response from Josephine Clausen a month earlier, and she never did provide me with any further information.
So, as of now, almost five months after my original purchase, TATF has provided me with no documentation of the location or status of my trees.
I have to say I'm pretty concerned, and would not recommend that anyone else do business with TATF.
A1
Bobwins;
Much obliged.
A1
Bobwins;
When I checked on warrants for EPM, I found two listed on the pink sheets in the US - EPMJF, and EPMWF. However, I couldn't find any more details on these two. Do you have any more info on these warrants, such as the strike price and expiration date?
Thanks,
A1
Bobwins, I agree on Goro
After listening to their recent presentation, and researching their backgrounds, I have a lot of confidence in the Reid brothers to make Goro successful.
Regards,
A1
Gold Resource Corp (Goro.ob) up again.
Goro.ob is up another 20% today. It's up ~ 60% over the past week. I have to wonder how much of this is buying due to positive impressions from management's recent presentations, and how much is due to momentum buying.
A1
Adam;
I'm glad to hear that your mother and father in law were able to verify that TATF is legitimate.
I spent a lot of time reading TATF's website, as well as other online resources on teak, before investing with them, but it's always nice to hear from someone who was able (or at least whose relatives were able) to do some on-site verification.
I hope we can get more inputs here from TATF investors, as well as investors in other timber opportunities.
A1
Good News/Bad News for ROK
Roca Mines announced that they've closed the final tranche of their recent financing today.
However, in their news release they said that the MAX molybdenum mine would begin production in 2007 (not in Q1 2007 as in earlier releases). From looking at the pics of the progress at MAX on their website, my guess is that the mine will start up in May or June.
A1
Nosleep;
I wonder if the downward movement in ROK is due to issues with the financing. In early January, they announced that the first tranche of the financing had been completed, but no announcements since then. It seems that the second tranche should have been completed by now.
A1
lwdwewu;
I too have had some concerns about TATF. However, it does appear to me that they're probably legitimate. First, they've been around now for about 15 years, and I haven't found anything negative about them on the web. They claim to be growing trees for ~3,000 different customers on 13,000 acres. With that large of an operation, and so many investment sites online, I think we would hear about negative news or unhappy customers pretty quickly.
The one concern that I do have is that they might be running a pyramid scheme, using the money from new tree purchasers to pay returns to earlier customers. This, of course, only continues to work as long as new customers continue to sign up.
However, I do think that the returns on plantation teak are pretty decent, and, with the prices TATF is charging, they should have a profitable business, and thus shouldn't need to resort to any funny business.
The other positive that I see is that they are currently thinning the first of their 13 and 14 year old teak trees. These thinnings will result in their first teak lumber that can be sold for decent prices on the world market. Since TATF collects a 6% commission on all the wood it sells for its customers, from now on, TATF will have two income streams - one from signing up new customers, and one from its commissions on harvested trees. The income from the harvested trees will continue to grow for many more years.
So overall, I think the risk that TATF will abscond with its customers' money is pretty low.
A1
Bobwins, any thoughts on valuation for TAM.V?
The company has ~41 million shares, options, and warrants outstanding. The Pine Point property looks very promising, but I don't see any estimates on the company's website on how much it will cost to bring the mine into production, or the time frame for doing so. So, it looks like investing in this one is somewhat of a crapshoot, until more data becomes available.
A1
Ag;
Thanks for some very useful information!! You're definitely helping to get this board off to a good start. Now I have another question for you. Do you have any formulas or rules of thumb on how many board feet of lumber can be generated from a tree of a given size? For example, if I have a loblolly pine 12" in diameter at breast height, with a usable height of 30 feet, how many board feet of lumber could I expect to get from the tree once it's sawn?
TIA
A1
Agforest;
I appreciate any help you can give. Can you provide some guidance on typical IRR's for timberland investments in your area? Is it better to buy standing timber or start from scratch?
Thanks,
A1
There are several bulletin boards on line for offering to buy and sell timber. These can be used to get a reality check on price projections. One bulletin board that offers a free membership is www.asiatimber.net.
When looking at prices, it's important to be aware of the different timber grades out there. In the case of teak, veneer grade wood goes for $2000/m3 or more, whereas wood from young trees can go for $200/m3 or less.
Another key variable affecting an investment in timberland is the projected growth rate of the timber on the land. The projected growth rate should be carefully checked before investing, as it has a major impact on the rate of return.
Be careful if price and/or growth projections seem to good to be true. An infamous example of this was 'Flor y Fauna' (do a web search if you want more info).
A1
Tropical American Tree Farm's website is www.TATF.com.
They have some projections on their website that look quite optimistic to me. In particular, their numbers for the selling price of lumber from 7 and 10 year old trees (from thinning) look very optimistic. Other than this, this appears to me to be an ethical and well-run operation.
A1
ROK to issue 5 million units:
Vancouver, British Columbia: Roca Mines Inc. (ROK: TSX-V)("Roca" or the "Company") announces that it has arranged a non-brokered private placement for proceeds of up to $7 million through the issuance of 5,000,000 units at a price of $1.40 per unit.
The units will each consist of one common share and one share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder to acquire an additional common share for a period of 18 months following closing at a price of $2.25. The shares will be subject to a four month hold period.
This dilutes the shares by ~ 10% immediately, and potentially another 10% over the next 18 months. Hopefully the stock price won't tank too bad.
A1
Bobwins;
One potential issue with ROK is that the 3 month delay might mean that they have to sell more shares to cover their expenses before they start to generate revenue. Hopefully, if they do, the dilution will be minimal.
A1
Bobwins;
Anyone who has been paying attention should have already realized that the mine would not be in production by the end of the year. The amount of the drop tomorrow will be a good indicator of the knowledge of ROK's investors.
A1
Canadian Zinc (CZN.TO) up 20%
CZN.TO was up 20% today on 10X normal volume. Anyone have any idea what's up?
A1
Moly supply/demand seen in balance.
Phelps Dodge is predicting moly supply and demand to remain in balance, and moly pricing to remain about where it is for the remainder of 2006 and all of 2007.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061024:MTFH72667_2...
A1
To Mysscat, Erthang, LT, Bocxman, and others:
Do any of you work in R&D, or in technology development?
I do, and I can tell you from experience that it's extremely difficult to take a new technology from the lab to being a commercial success. Dozens of problems have to be overcome, and if only one of them cannot be overcome, the new technology will not become a commercial success.
Although RECAF works for Biocurex, there's no guarantee that it will work for Abbott in its Architect system. The fact that it's been 18 months since the Abbott licensing deal was first announced, and nothing further about this deal or the progress that Abbott has made, has been announced, is an indication that integrating RECAF into the Architect system may be more difficult than some might have expected.
From Biocurex's last press release: ...it is important to realize that the RECAF technology is very complex. Development of the technology is very tricky... This could be a back-handed way of indicating that Abbott, and/or BOCX has encountered some problems with RECAF.
Of course, if Abbott is successful in integrating RECAF into its Architect system, the upside for BOCX, and for us, its investors, is quite large - that's why I own shares in this company. However, based on my ~ 25 years experience in technology development and in investing, RECAF and BOCX are still somewhat of a long shot. It would be foolish to invest more than a small fraction of your portfolio in this company.
I hope that you haven't fallen in love with this, or any stock, and refrain from attacking those who have some doubts or negative sentiments about the company. I sincerely doubt that there are any paid bashers on this board - BOCX is simply to small for it to be worth their while. Those who express negative sentiments are most likely voicing legitimate concerns, or simply venting their frustration at the stock's performance.
Hopefully, we can have a civil exchange of views, and become more knowledgable and successful investors in the process.
A1
Falcon Oil and Gas Value
The company put out a press release today (9/25/06) saying that the Scotia Group had done another resource assessment of Falcon's property in Hungary, and come up with a 50% probability estimate of ~ 55 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This is a resource, not a reserve, so if we assume this would translate into a reserve of 30 trillion cubic feet (TCF), produced linearly over a time frame of 20 years (ie, 1.5 TCF/year), starting in 2008, and also assume that Falcon will make $1.00/MCF after tax on this production, and use a discount rate of 10%, the net present value of this resource is ~$11.5 billion. Falcon currently has about 500 million shares, warrants, and options outstanding. If we assume that this number will increase to 750 million before the gas starts flowing in serious volume, the current value per share is $11.5 billion/0.75 billion, or ~ $15.50/share. The current share price is $2.70 (US), so the stock appears to be quite undervalued.
A1
Oil and Basic Metals - Inverse Price Relationship?
Although the prices of oil and basic metals have both risen sharply over the past few years, as have the prices of most other commodities, I think that the recent drop in oil prices may be help support the prices of the basic metals, as high oil prices were a drag on economic growth. With oil prices dropping, world economies are more likely to remain reasonably strong, which should cause demand and prices for base metals, and base metal mining stocks, to remain fairly strong.
A1
Petrolifera has a market cap of ~ $750 million, and at current production, an annualized revenue of $200 million, which should rise to $300 million (annualized) in the next few months. It also owns some prospective properties in Argentina and Peru. Since I couldn't find a discussion board for this stock, I decided to start one. All constructive comments or questions are welcome.
A1
Reverse;
Could also be someone taking some losses for tax purposes. I'm in that situation myself - I have some capital gains from other investments, and am looking at selling some of my BOCX to partially offset my gains.
A1
Bocxman;
You write 'false and misleading statements are intolerable, period.'
But in your post 4962, you say 'Gold-Seeker = DC-Steve' Presumably, if you're so against false and misleading statements, you wouldn't make a statement for which you have no proof.
I'd be very interested in seeing the proof you have that Gold-Seeker is in fact DC-Steve.
Perhaps you and Mysscat should set up your own little board somewhere else, with one of the rules being that no-one is allowed to post anything negative about BOCX.
A1
Bocxman, just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they're DC Steve, or a paid basher, or some other nefarious character.
I'm long this stock in a big way, and like gunnar and Gold Seeker, I resent you attacking anyone who says anything negative or expresses doubts about BOCX. Given the lack of news, and the continuing drop in the share price, we have good reason to be concerned.
Ideally, a board like this should be about exchanging information and sharing ideas so that we can all become better investors and make better returns on our investments. Your personal attacks on people who disagree with you detracts from that goal, and impoverishes us all.
A1
1nvestor;
Nothing stops Abbot from buying BOCX. Abbot bought Urovysion, even though (according to Half Full) their cancer detection technology is much less impressive than BOCX's. Maybe Abbot knows something we don't?
Another recent event (or non-event) that worried me was BOCX's presentation at the American Association for Clinical Chemistry (AACC) Annual Meeting. According to BOCX's press release, this is the largest clinical lab meeting in North America. Yet, after the presentation, there was no pop in the share price at all. Perhaps the attendees at the meeting, who presumably are experts in the field, weren't impressed by the results, or didn't believe them? The best spin that could be put on this is that hardly anyone attended BOCX's presentation.
Of course, this all just amounts to reading tea leaves. But until Moro et al put out some concrete info, that's all we can do.
A1
Anyone have any thoughts on moly prices?
I bought some ROK a month or so ago, and have enjoyed the run-up since then. However, one thing that concerns me is how flat moly prices have been since the beginning of the year ~ around $25/lb, with very little volatility. Prices of most other metals have shown a good deal of variability this year, and I'm wondering if there's an explanation for moly's flat price behavior.
Anyone have any thoughts?
10bagger
Scouty;
Hopefully, things will work as follows:
Once a recaf serum blood test comes back with a positive result indicating that someone has cancer, the next step will be to run an imaging scan on that person, after they've be injected with a different recaf solution (most likely one that's conjugated with a (slightly) radioactive isotope). This differect recaf solution will attach to the cancer, if one is present, and the cancer will then be imaged by equipment that can detect the radiation. My understanding is that these types of scans are performed today (but, of course, not for cancer).
A1
Hidden gotcha's.
I wonder if there are any more hidden gotcha's in this stock. I've owned this stock for a couple of years, and added significantly to my position after the Abbot licensing deal was announced last year. Then, around July, it became clear that BOCX only received $200k up-front from the license deal with Abbot. Since many biotech licensing deals involve up-front deals in the 10's of millions of $$, I felt very let down when this was announced. Abbot probably spends more than $200k every year on paper clips.
More recently, the company announced that it had developed a colorimetric based cancer test, rather than the old radioactivity-based test. This is excellent news, and I added to my position when I read this, but, again, I have to say that I felt let down that BOCX had not made it clear earlier that its serum test was radioactivity based. Although the information may have been available somewhere, it certainly wasn't included in any of the company's earlier press releases.
From the information I have available, BOCX's stock seems to have excellent prospects. However, the above two instances in which positive information was publicized more than potentially negative information gives me some pause.
Hopefully, there aren't any more gotchas out there.
A1
test
All;
How much do you think this announcement will affect the share price? My guess - <$0.10.
A1
Dakota;
Yes, you are interpreting the results correctly.
A1
Bocxman;
If you have proof that good-pal has used multiple aliases, kindly provide it to the rest of the board. Otherwise, you might find yourself TOS'ed for repeatedly making unfounded and defamatory allegations about another poster.
A1
Bocxman;
Just because good-pal is expressing doubts and concerns about this company, that doesn't make him in violation of the terms of service.
You should be ashamed of yourself for trying to silence those with views that don't agree with your own.
A1
Quoting from BOCX's press release:
"One of the reasons we had such an impact is that each slide showing our own results was followed by a slide showing similar results from a continuing blind test(1) study in collaboration with an independent and highly regarded scientific European group. During the congress we met with the principal investigator of that group and discussed the results obtained so far and the anticipated future work."
My question is how similar were the results from the independent European group? Were they the same as, better than, or worse than BOCX's results? Reading between the lines, the results from the European group were probably somewhat worse than BOCX's (otherwise the press release would have used words like 'identical' or 'almost identical', instead of 'similar'). I also recall a press release some time ago from BOCX about the results obtained by a Japanese group that used histo-RECAF. The Japanese results were also somewhat worse than what BOCX had reported achieving in its own lab. So, the $64k question is:
Is BOCX reporting unduly optimistic results that cannot be duplicated by other groups, or do the other groups simply need more training to achieve the results that BOCX has reported in its own lab?
Does anyone know of a way to get a copy of the BOCX presentation at the conference?
Thanks,
A1
Re: Reason for the drop
The reason is simple: No buying interest. This co has ~ 4,000 shareholders (according to company documents). There's no news to makes any existing or prospective shareholders want to buy, so if any of the 4,000 existing shareholders wants to sell, the price drops. Expect more of the same until some positive news is released.
10bagger