CL/WTI: Short Review & Middle Term Forecast

After the depressed period we have an upward trend again and preconditions for further growth, given the long-term perspectives for increasing demand.

Between May and the end of June the market was depressed. Oil fell in price from $51 to $42. It seemed that the falling of oil prices is unstoppable. The oversupply of crude oil, the increase of oil extraction volumes even amid OPEC countries and the growth of oil reserves in the United States created a desperate situation, whereby market participants were unable to control the market and achieve a balance between demand and supply.

However, in July oil began to recover due to the reduction of oil stocks in the United States and the reduction of drilling activity. In addition, the oil recovered in price amid the long-term forecasts which show perspectives for growth in the demand for oil, although some analysts disagree with that. Nevertheless, given the recent data such as the index of business activity in China from Caixin, which marks the increasing of business activity, there are good preconditions for an increasing demand for raw materials in China. The decreasing in oil reserves in the United States will ease the pressure on the oil market for the next few months.

CL/WTI, H4
In the near future the market will focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will take place on August 7-8. The volatility over the past few months has remained very high, but it's decreasing. We can expect for sure a continuation of the rates in the frames of the current uptrend. After the price correction, prices may recover to the level of 50-51 dollars. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time to open the deals to BUY on the trend.

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How Healthcare Failed the Dollar

Amid the ruins of the Republicans' attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare, the USD is the true victim.

While we have been focusing on other regions in our most recent articles, one detail often popped up in our analysis: the fact that the American dollar has weakened. Why did that happen? That’s what we’ll try to find out today.

Now, if you take a look back to 2015 and 2016, you’d see the dollar overtaking most major currencies, making consistent gains as the US economy was doing splendidly. The USD experienced volatility around the 2016 Presidential elections, but after Trump’s win investors decided to back him up in hopes that his protectionist policies and focus on infrastructure would boost the economy. As a result, the dollar ended 2016 at record highs and at the turn of 2017 people were already talking of possible parity with the euro, with various temporal prognoses, most commonly by the year’s end.

However, we are now seven months into 2017 and six months into Trump’s presidency, and things are not looking good. Trump has failed repeatedly to find support for his policy-making, and save for his promise to revive the coal industry, he hasn’t achieved much from what was on his campaign’s agenda. Investors have been continuously changing their expectations of his presidency with every passing day, and have little to no confidence in him right now, since polls are showing massive losses in Trump’s popularity among American citizens. This led to a lack of confidence in the American dollar too; the USD has suffered losses, while safe-haven trading instruments such as gold have regained some of their popularity in recent times.

The most recent political fiasco of Trump’s administration is undoubtedly the failed healthcare reform. Republicans have been attempting to get rid of the Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) even before it was enacted years ago. Now that they finally have the upper hand in the Senate, it is astonishing just how poorly this was handled. Republicans kept details about their reform secret; the President expressed support for the bill without having seen it, and later switched his position, calling it “mean.” After a series of failed votes (including from Republican senators), the massively unpopular bill failed. It was then replaced with a plan to simply repeal Obamacare and return things to the way they were. In light of this, however, an estimate of 15 million people would have been left without insurance next year, and even more in the future. Last night even the vote to repeal Obamacare failed.

XAU/USD: Short Review and Forecast
The market has been extremely volatile the last few months. Investors are waiting for the results of the FED meeting. The GOLD has good chances to increase in price if the FED doesn't change the rate.

The Gold has been extremely volatile for the last few months. On the H4 chart we can see a large number of different micro trends that continually replace each other every month. This has created uncertainty on the market. Volatility is higher than ever: in just three months, the price varied in the range of 1216-1294 dollars. Overall, the trend looks flat, but with a huge range.


This week, the price achieved a monthly maximum, but decreased a bit because investors are awaiting the results from the Federal Reserve meeting held today. The Fed meeting will show if the interest rate is going to be increased or not. Investors suppose that interest rates are unlikely to be increased before December. Inflation in the United States was lower than expected for the fourth month in a row. Other economic indicators also do not impress the market. The Gold also has been rising in price due to the failure of the health care reform and the weakening of the USD.

Given that the Federal Reserve rate hike is unlikely in the near future, we expect a further increasing of Gold value, after the price correction. This also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the current rates are in the oversold zone. A further increase of the Gold's value will lead to the formation of a steady uptrend. Therefore, the deals to BUY can be considered as the most effective.

USD/JPY Technical Overview ahead of the Fed Rate

The USD/JPY pair returned back to the channel and we expect further lows.

Last week the US Dollar was weaker against most of the majors, especially since there were few economic calendar events from the USA and investors focused instead on Washington’s rising political tensions. However, this week is different and trading will depend on fundamentals with the release of consumer confidence, the Fed’s July rate statement, and the preliminary second quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

The USD/JPY currency pair returned back to the price channel again after breaking it upward. We took a buy position and our first target was at 114.32 - the prices already hit it and returned again, then the pair broke the moving average last Friday. It has a key support area at 110.23, 50 pips down. The MACD indicator gave us the sell signal after the columns appeared below the zero level. It’s expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged this month and won’t increase it, so we predict the pair will decline further.

The Next Few Days

After we saw the prices back inside the channel again we can sell the pair from the current levels at 110.75 and keep our first target at 110.23, with a second one at 108.34 at this year’s low. Nevertheless, if the prices return back to 112.00 again we will change our vision to be bullish.

This week is overwhelming with much hot news from the United States which hold the potential to cause high volatility on the market: the CB Consumer Confidence, the FOMC statement, and the GDP for the second quarter.

The Euro Back to 2015 Highs

The euro continues to take on the USD in a confident bullish movement.

This week we turn our eyes to Europe once more. The economic climate in the European Union seems to be quite heated these days: many reports coming from all around the eurozone are flooding in, and investors are paying close attention to the euro, particularly in the context of the much weaker dollar we’ve been seeing these days.

Earlier today the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters was published. The survey, which is quite important to the ECB and whose results always figure into the decision-making process of the ECB, showed that while there is stable economic growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, the inflation rate still remains relatively low. As we’ve mentioned before on our blog, the ECB is currently in the midst of a massive stimulus program whose goal is to boost inflation to a healthy level. It appears this level still hasn’t been achieved, despite investors’ hopes that the ECB might be satisfied with the current progress and start turning towards more hawkish policies.

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SuperForex - Economic Calendar

Our Economic Calendar includes the most recent and significant economic events, figures, and facts that can influence the currency and financial market in general.
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USD/MXN: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The MXN has achieved its April 2016 level, while the USD is losing positions due to the failure of the health care reform.

The rates of the USD/MXN pair continue in the frames of the downtrend which has lasted for more than six months, when the Mexican peso fell as a result of the presidential elections in the USA and D. Trump's anti-immigration protectionist policies openly directed against Mexico. Despite several factors against the Mexican peso, such as perspectives for lowering oil prices and the worsened relations between the U.S. and Mexico, the peso managed to recover its lost positions.


This week the MXN reached the level from April 2016 amid the rising oil prices and the failure of the health care reform in the United States. This points to the inefficiency and weakness of Donald Trump's administration. The failure of the health care reform threatens the further policies of Donald Trump and decreases his popularity in the United States. The US dollar was also negatively impacted by the cautious rhetoric of Yellen about a further tightening the FED policy. Also, amid disappointing data about inflation and retail sales, investors began to doubt whether we would see a further increasing of the interest rate this year.

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Swap-free account

Superforex tries to respect the cultural features of Islamic countries, in particular, the Sharia law, which prohibits Muslims to receive interest. In this regard, we have a special account for Muslims - our Swap-free account.

When making transactions using this trading account for any currency pair if the position extends past midnight the trader does not receive or lose any amount, regardless of the volume of the position.

You can check the specific amounts of the swap by browsing the list of trading instruments. To compensate for the lack of swaps, Islamic accounts work on a fixed commission, which is perfect for traders who tend to make long-term deals.

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Qatar Crisis Continues

Qatar is still under blockade by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and two other countries. Can Qatar's economy weather this storm?

A few weeks ago we shed a little bit of light on the current diplomatic crisis in Qatar. It has been essentially blockaded by its neighbouring countries on the grounds of supposedly promoting terrorism and destabilizing the Middle East. This has made it slightly more complicated for Qatar to import and export goods, but as we learned from Qatar’s finance minister, there was no need to worry too much. Or is there?

The countries opposing Qatar are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain. They made a list of demands that aim at making Qatar work for better stability in the region. However, the blockaded state has refused to comply, stating that the demands may constitute a violation of international law, reports CNN. In retaliation, the four countries which cut ties with Qatar have showed a determination to step up their measures and increase pressure on Qatar, though the meaning of this is yet unclear.

Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics/qatar-crisis-continues

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AUD/CAD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The CAD continues strengthening against the AUD. Investors expect an increase of the interest rate today.

The rates of the AUD/CAD continue in the frames of a downtrend. Last month the Canadian dollar successfully withstood the pressure due to low oil prices and strengthened against the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar continued decreasing even after the positive statistics about the trade balance, although this did support the AUD for a few days. Last week the RBA refused to raise the interest rate. Despite the positive economic data, the RBA supposes that the goals of its stimulus program haven't been achieved yet. In particular, the RBA is concerned about the situation on the labour market.


This week we do not expect important information about the AUD. The only thing that can have an impact on the value of the AUD is information about the Chinese economy. As for the CAD, we expect important information. In particular, this evening investors expect a decision from the Bank of Canada regarding raising the interest rate. Given the recent information about the PMI index and positive reports about the employment market, investors are sure that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rate by 25 pips - up to 0.75%, for the first time since 2010. Thus, Canada will become the first country after the United States to tighten its monetary policy amid the good economic situation in the country. Another reason for the further strengthening of the CA, is a growth in oil prices, which have increased due to information about a reduction in the reserves of WTI crude oil by 2.1 million barrels for a week in the main oil storage reservoir of the United States. In addition, it was reported that OPEC can limit the volume of oil extraction in Nigeria and Libya, which were free from obligations to reduce the volume of oil production with the current agreement.

In this situation, the optimal decision is to open the deals on the trend. The Stochastic oscillator also gives a signal for short deals indicating the rates in the overbought zone.
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A New Hope for the Pound

The United Kingdom's currency seems to have finally slowed its descent - could it be ready to start recovering?

The future of the British currency became quite uncertain the weeks leading up to the Brexit vote last June, then slumped after the results came through. Now it seems that for the first time in 2017 investors are changing their views on the pound for the better. However, this pertains to the pound vs the dollar; where the euro is concerned, the situation is different.

This discrepancy could be easily explained. For one thing, investors expected a lot more from the US economy, mostly riding on Donald Trump’s promised goals as president, especially his vow to bring economic growth up to 3%. This is easier said than done, as we’ve seen. Lukewarm reports from the United States, as well as Trump’s general struggle to enact any kind of policy successfully have made investors lower their expectations. We’ve even seen the dollar drop against all major currencies in recent weeks.

The situation is pretty much the opposite with the eurozone. The European Central Bank is in the midst of a massive stimulus program to encourage healthy inflation and spending. Even though the expectation was to see it continue a bit longer, the program is already paying off and surprisingly good economic data from all around Europe has prompted the ECB to admit they may start phasing out the program before the year’s end and turn to a more hawkish policy on the euro. In addition, fears of further political unrest in the EU have been calmed by Macron’s victory in the French presidential elections in April. We still have to see what would happen in the German general elections this fall, but things seem promising for Angela Merkel. It was previously feared she might not gather enough support but after a successful equal marriage rights vote last week it seems likely that she would stay in power.

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USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

Riksbank supported the SEK while the USD was losing positions amid political tensions and investors' worries about the rate change by the FED.

The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, although in the period from May 19 until June 27 the trend changed to a flat one. It seemed that the downward trend had been finally completed at the beginning of July. However, market volatility has suddenly increased, and the downward trend has been restored.
This week there were no significant factors that would affect the USD/SEK rates. The main factor that influence the value of the USD in recent weeks remains the political tension in the United States and investors' worries about the future for the FED rate hikes due to weak economic data in the United States. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials maintain the stance that the rates should be raised more before the end of 2017. Nevertheless, investors suppose that the Federal Reserve may delay increasing the interest rate if the situation in the U.S. economy changes in a positive way and if political tensions in the US grow. Based on this, the dollar lost positions against most currencies while investors prefer safe-haven instruments such as JPY and Gold.

Read more here: https://superforex.com/analytics/usd-sek-review-forecast-050717

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The Euro on the Rise

The European currency seems to be on the rise, enjoying a positive economic outlook.
Here is something we didn’t think we’d be saying so soon: the euro is having a good time.
The currency of the European Union went through some serious hardship over the past decade – it suffered immensely in the global recession of 2008, the debt crisis in some EU countries such as Greece and Portugal, which eventually led to further internal conflicts and more trouble for Europe’s unity as the United Kingdom announced its intention to leave and the fear of losing more members spread as Italy and France held elections recently.
However, this bleak phase for the euro seems to be approaching an end. Despite small daily fluctuations, which occur naturally when there’s global activity on the financial markets, the euro was able to climb up and is currently in its strongest levels since 2011, according to Reuters.
Part of the reason why this is a little surprising is the fact that the European Central Bank, the EU’s organ for monetary policy, has been implementing a stimulus program to boost the European economy by encouraging inflation, something that logically decreases the value of the euro versus other major currencies. It has already been two years since the program began and investors as well as the ECB itself initially expected to continue with this approach for a few years. Nevertheless, recent data from the European Union shows the economy is doing quite well, which prompted ECB President Mario Draghi to show willingness to change the course of the current policy as early as September this year.
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GBP/NZD Technical Outlook after the Financial Stability Report

Minutes ago we listened to BOE governor Mark Carney’s speech about the financial stability in the United Kingdom. He said that the financial stability associated with the outcomes or the results of Brexit and the consumer credit has far outpaced household income over last year, and those comments led the pound currency to decline with 20-30 pips against all major currencies and to rise back again.

Today we would discuss the GBP/NZD pair which has lost more than 1400 pips since May 22 after breaking the small channel at the top. In our last report we recommended selling the pair at 1.7960 and it achieved our targets at 1.7932 and 1.7465 for more than 490 pips.

The pair is trading now at 1.7430, close to the uptrend line which has 4 bottoms. We are waiting for another retest to buy the pair. The Stochastic indicator lines are crossed together at the level 35.

The Next Few Days

From this analysis of the daily chart we have to wait for a bullish candle at these levels or a little lower on the daily or H4 chart in order to buy the pair. We should keep our first target at 1.7765 and the second one at 1.8150, but if the prices break the trend line and settle down we have to sell the pair to the bottom 1.6830.

This week is overwhelmed with hot events like Carney’s speech tomorrow and the current account on Friday from the UK. Read more: https://superforex.com/analytics/gbp-nzd-technical-outlook-after-the-financial-stability-report

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NZD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

On the NZD/JPY chart, we can see upward trend which had been formed just a month ago. Now it is becoming more intense. Especially, the Japanese yen lost in value today when the Bank of Japan revealed that they will not to change its monetary policy, keeping the stimulus program unchanged. The Bank of Japan also stated that won't raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Although it has the reasons for the rate change and tightening of monetary policy considering that GDP growth for five consecutive quarters, good situation in labor market, despite the weak wage growth. But the Bank of Japan stated that they are not interested in strengthening of the yen because the weak yen will have a positive impact on the economy and unemployment level.
The new Zealand dollar managed to strengthen against the yen weakening. Although this week was received contradictory statistics affecting the NZD value: GDP growth was weaker than expected in both quarterly and YoY, achieving +0.5% and +2.5%, respectively. But the index of business activity PMI exceeded expectations and amounted 58.5, which is the highest level since January 2016. Also, contributed the rapid strengthening of the NZD impressive data on the employment market in Australia, which is the main trading partner of New Zealand: unemployment rate in may was 5.5% against expected 5.7% and indicator of the "Level of change in employment” was 47K in May which is in 4.7 times more than expected.

Thus, strengthening of the NZD has led to the breaking and moving of the resistance line. Oscillators MACD, Stochastics, RSI unanimously indicate that the rates are in the overbought zone at the moment. So, probability of a price correction in the near future is very high. We can only agree with that because the short deals seems would be the most effective at the moment.

AUD/CAD: review and forecast

?anadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4.
Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper.
Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.

AUD/CAD: review and forecast

?anadian dollar, is under intense pressure due to falling in oil prices. The rates of CL drops and can not find a base to stabilize. At the moment the price of a barrel of oil CL/WTI costs $ 45.39. Such a low level of prices had been reached only once, this year. After positive GDP data in Canada, at the beginning of the month, there were many factors that had a negative impact on the Canadian dollar. In addition to falling of oil prices, the market also dissapointed with statistics about reduction in the number of building permits by 0.2%, while investors expected in April increasing by 2.4%. Also it has been known about reduction of business activity index in Canada (PMI) to 53.8 against expected 62. A month earlier, the index reached a level of 62.4.
Given the multiple factors against CAD it is not difficult to assume that the upward trend of AUD/CAD continues. But the Australian dollar deserved to grow even despite the weakening of the Canadian dollar. This week, there were data about GDP for the first quarter of 2017: it has grown to 0.3 percent, slightly exceeding the forecast; yoy GDP growth is more impressive - 1.7% vs. expected growth to 1.5%. The reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and indicated further economic growth in the next few years.Situation with trading partners of Australia also in favour of Australia. Recently received statistics about China showed growth in exports and imports by 8.7% and 14.8%, significantly exceeding forecasts. In particular, the volume of iron ore imports in May increased by 11%. Also, increased imports of aluminium and copper.
Oscillators indicate different signals. Stochastic signalized the beginning of a price correction and a good time for opening the deals against the trend. Upon short-term trading, such deals may be rather effective. Especially given that today we expect data about the change in employment for Canada which can support CAD. But there are no enough preconditions for a trend change. So, upon medium-term trading, it is better to trust the MACD oscillator and open the deals to BUY.

NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

Starting from May 2017, the downward trend has been changed by rapid upward trend. The New Zealand dollar reached the highest level 0.72 USD over the last 3 months and continues to go up. The main reason for the rapid growth is a weak dollar, which continues to be under the pressure due to investigations about influence of Russia on elections in the United States. In particular, this Thursday, the former head of the FBI, James Comey, will be reporting in Thursday for the Committee of the U.S. Congress. Investors fear it can impact negatively on the administration of D. Trump , as well as D. Trump. This is why the dollar loses in value against all currencies.

But not only the weakening of the dollar affected the rate of NZD/USD. Also impacted received statistics about economy's most important trading partner of New Zealand - Australia.
This week, the reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and predicts economic growth for the next few years. Meanwhile, GDP data for Australia, has pleased investors: growth amounted to 0.3% in Q1 2017, while the market expected growth to 0.2%. Also, business inventories in Australia increased by 1.2 % in Q1 2017, exceeding market expectations of 0.5% growth. This is the strongest growth since 2012.
The MACD indicates a good time for short deals. The RSI confirms this, pointing out that the rates are in the overbought zone, and high probability of a price correction. But considering fundamental factors upon medium-term trading, it is better to open the deals on the trend. Peak growth has not been achieved yet, and expected for the next week data about volumes of retail sales and GDP of New Zealand, may support the NZD.

OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

Oil prices are gradually decreasing. Extension of the Pact on "Reducing of oil extraction" does not change the situation, as it was expected. OPEC's attempt to impact the market with the help of this agreement will be doomed, amid news about increasing of drilling activity in the USA, 19th week in a row, and increasing of oil production in Libya which haven't joint the agreement on "Reducing of oil extraction". At the same time, in order for achieving the balance on the market and oil prices growth, it is necessary to reduce oil extraction by all countries-manufacturers but this does not happen, and the reserves of crude oil on the market are close to record levels. Thus, the supply continues to exceed demand on the market.
Despite the dominant number of negative signals on the market, the rates of oil continues in the frames of the upward trend, though it is solely by inertia, and it's not based on objective factors. There're no perspectives for further growth at the moment. Most likely, in the near future, the upward trend will be changed to the flat trend which has already been formed. Lines of support and resistance can be fixed at the levels of 44.5 and $ 54 a barrel mark CL/WTI.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment. Today investors are waiting for the data about oil stocks from the American petroleum Institute. Investors expect a reduction of oil reserves that may support oil prices a bit. Therefore, upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY. But upon medium-term trading, the deals to SELL can be more effective.

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XAU/USD (GOLD): Short review and forecast

This week prices for Gold continue to grow. The main factor of growth, of course, was the terrorist attack in Manchester, which forced investors to turn to less risky assets. In addition, the growth of prices continued amid the weak dollar and based on the results of the FOMC Committee meeting, where was designated plans of the US Central Bank to reduce the balance before the end of this year. The FED, which had planned a rate increase this year 2 times, began doubt about necessity for further growth of the rate due to weak economic indicators and slowdown of the economy, although the probability of a rate hike in June remains high. Of course it's also impacted the value of GOLD. Political instability in the United States and possibility of beginning a full and protracted political crisis also, contributes the growth.
So, there're a lot of factors which say about further increasing of prices. We can say for sure that the upward trend will continue and increase its intensity in the near future. It should be noted that the rates was carried out with high volatility in a wide range, but now the situation changes and the upward trend is more stable, which is clearly seen on the chart.
Thus, we can say that at the moment, the deals to BUY are more effective. Oscillator MACD confirms this.

CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


The rates of the CAD/JPY for a long time was in the frames of the rapid downward trend, but now the situation can be changed: the trend had lost its intensity and the canadian dollar strengthened against the yen. Perhaps we can see beginning of a new trend. Actually it has been formed and we can see that resistance line has been shifted, and the support line had turned up. However, given that strengthening of the CAD, is mainly based on the increasing of oil prices, which continues to grow amid upcoming summit of OPEC this Friday, crude oil prices may resume a declining for the next few weeks. And this will happen in any case - if OPEC countries extend the agreement On the reduction of oil and in case if not extended. The reason is that extending of the agreement by the OPEC does not solve all questions about the overabundance of oil on the market. The United States and Canada can negate all effect, and higher prices will only motivate for further increasing of oil production. this has been proven in practice.
The Japanese yen wasn't able to resist successfully the onslaught of the Canadian dollar due to disappointing data from Japan this week: trade balance of Japan was 0.1 T in April, although investors expected level of 0.25 T, the volume of exports grew by only 7.5% against the expected growth of 7.8% and
the volume of imports increased by 15%, which is more than expected but in the future it is a threat to the trade balance of the country. Next week important data that could support JPY is not expected at all.
Thus, we can say that in the short term, the CAD will strengthen against many currencies due to the increasing of oil prices. It's happening now - oil prices on Monday achieved a 5 week high and continue to grow, so the deals to Buy will be most effective at this moment upon short term trading.

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AUD/CAD: review and forecast

The rates of the AUD/CAD continues in the frames of the upward trend. The canadian dollar remains under the pressure of low oil prices. Volatility for this currency pair remains very high. So, in early may, disappointing statistics about economy of Australia and China, have led to significant falling of the AUD value. During 1 day it has been lost 2 CAD cents. It was influence of the data about the trade balance of Australia. Investors expected the growth of the surplus to 3.4 billion while it was just 3.1 billion; also disappointed the value of the business activity index in the services sector in China.
By the end of next week, the volatility in the market can be decreased. The market don't expect any important data until next Friday. Then, the market will receive information about retail sales and consumer prices in Canada, for April. A day earlier, also expect information on employment in Australia in April. It should also be noted that this month will be the summit of the OPEC and volatility will be gradually increasing together with the oil prices. So it can strengthen the CAD because it is expected that on the upcoming summit countries-exporters will extend the agreement about Reduction of the oil extraction. Therefore, oil prices will rise for some time, but countries which didn't join the agreement, mainly the US, unlikely will let oil to rise significantly in price for a long period because if prices increase the USA increasing the volume of oil production, adversely affecting the market.
Oscillators are neutral at the moment, but considering perspectives of oil prices growth in the near future, and consequently the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, the optimal solution now is to open the deals to SELL upon medium term trading. Upon the short-term trading, it is also possible to open the deals on the trend.

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NZD/USD: fundamental review and forecast

Situation for the NZD has not changed yet. the rates continue to be in the frames of the downward trend, though it lost its intensity. The dollar continues to strengthen against the NZD, although we can not say that the New Zealand economy is in a bad state. Despite the rising inflation, the country's economy gradually develops and demonstrates growth. However, it does not allow the New Zealand currency to hold against the strong U.S. dollar.

Last week, the dollar strengthened amid the positive statistics about unemployment and the results of the FED meeting, which decided to leave interest rate unchanged, but considering sure growth of the US economy, reducing in unemployment, they plan to do it in June if nothing changes. Therefore, the probability of a rate hike is rated as very high.

At the moment, the rates of the NZD/USD stabilized in the range of 0.688 - 0,694 USD. We can also say that these levels are also good entry points to the market. Until the next day, volatility will be low because investors are waiting for the meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and their decision to change the rate. Now it's 1.75%. Investors don't expect for the rate changes just because the RBNZ in March, said that they don't not plan to change the rate until the 2019. Though continued weakening of the NZD can make them to change their decision because the rate increase would strengthen the NZD.

Oscillators are neutral for the moment and in this situation, the best solution is to open the deals on the trend. We can say that also, considering that there're no any real reasons for the trend change and strengthening of the NZD in the near future. Therefore, the deals to SELL can be the most effective now, upon the short and medium-term trading.

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USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.

USD/SEK becomes one of the most underrated currency pairs on the market, considering very high volatility and predictability. It helps to see how the results of the Presidential elections in France affected the rates. Of course, the main reason for the strengthening of the Swedish Krona, which strengthened against the dollar, was the strengthening of the Euro. Question of the victory of E. Makron is a question of the EU future. Sweden is highly depending on the EU. That's why it happened but the giant price hike from 9.02, to 8.7 SEK surpassed all expectations from the predictable outcome of these elections. Traders who are focused on currency pairs related with Euro - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP and others, missed a great opportunity to earn on USD/SEK.
At the moment, the rates consolidated at the level of 8.83 - 8.84 SEK for $ 1. The market is waiting for the unemployment report in the United States. Also, in the evening, we expect the speech of the FED Chairperson Yellen and FOMC members. It can affect the rates and strengthen the dollar. But recently received information about Swedish economy, in particular, increase of the volume of industrial production in 3.8% year on year, the increase in orders for the industry, achieving one of the highest levels over the past 10 years, will not allow the Swedish krona to lose a lot in price. Though the main event is the 2nd round of the French elections, where the victory of E. Makron is obvious for investors. It definitely will lead to further strengthening of the EUR and SEK.
At the moment the rates of the USD/SEK are in the frames of the flat trend but high volatility, which can be seen on the chart since the beginning of this year, makes this trend special: the rates are in a very wide range from 9.07 - up to 8.76 SEK. The most clear the trend can be seen only on the hourly and daily chart. Points of entry can be considered on the levels 8.817 and 8.855. Oscillator MACD is neutral while the Stochastic is showing a signal to open the short deals, which is absolutely right decision upon medium-term trade, considering possible impact of the upcoming elections in France, on the rates of USD/SEK. Upon short-term trading, you can open the deals to BUY, though volatility won't be high today.

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OIL (CL/WTI): middle term review and forecast

Oil prices continue weakening but the rates are still in the frames of upward trend which began over a year ago. However, the trend is near the completion, and now on the daily chart, you can see signs of the flat trend formation, as the prices from November 2016, keep in the range of 47 - $ 54 per barrel. Support and resistance lines hadn't been broken for all the time. Uncreasing of the drilling rigs in the United States, 15 consecutive week, continue to adversely affect the price of oil. The price of oil reached a minimum level, which for 6 months has been achieved only 2 times.

On the market we can see uncertain situation: on the one hand, OPEC countries are going to continue the agreement “On the reduction of oil production”, and investors believe that it will be done at the next meeting, may 25. On the other hand, the USA abolishes all these efforts with their growth of oil production. Increasing of oil demand will unlikely resolve the issue with the overabundance of oil on the market. Amid this, long-term forecasts of some analysts, in particular experts from Citigroup (NYCE:C) about further increasing the price of oil to $ 65 in the second half of the year, does not seem probable cause oil prices are constantly under the pressure from a number of factors. This week it was the recovery of oil production in Libya, the recession of business activity in China and mentioned before, constant increasing in drilling rigs in the United States. Factors that could unambiguously support the price of oil are not enough, but the situation may change at the end of the month on the results of the OPEC meeting.

At this moment, the entry point to the market we can call the levels of 47.4 and 48.2. The most optimal for the moment we can determine the deals to BUY which can be effective to get the profit on the price correction. MACD, RSI, oscillators partially confirm this. It is most likely that after reaching a new minimum level, the price will move up. Soon investors will focus on the next OPEC meeting, and news from countries-participants of the Agreement “On the reduction of oil production”. It can slightly enhance the price of black gold in the short term.

CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast

While the Euro has strengthened sharply against the Japanese yen, showing a giant price hike from 116.8 JPY up to 121 JPY based on results of the 1st round of elections in France, while the yen is losing positions against most currencies because it is under the pressure, mainly due to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, the canadian dollar failed to take the initiative and the rates CAD/JPY continues in the frames of downward trend. Though it's strengthened a bit yesterday.
At the moment, the Canadian dollar is under the pressure of many factors, firstly because of the falling in oil prices. The price for black gold fell again, and fell below the psychological point in $ 50. Forecasts here aren't good for the CAD because the United States continues to increase oil production, and President D. Trump supporting it and trying to make conditions for energy companies easier for developing oil extraction on the continental territory in the U.S. and on the shelf. Also, the canadian dollar decreasing in value because D. Trump continues to demand revision of trade relations with its neighbors and contradictions between Canada and the United States becomes more and more serious.
This week is full of important events, and the market will get a lot of macroeconomic statistics, which will affect the rates of CAD/JPY. Today, the market awaits important information about the volume of retail sales in Canada, conference of the President of the United States. Also, tomorrow we'll get the Report of the Bank of Japan about perspectives for Japanese economy, and on Friday we expect data about Canada's GDP, consumer price indices and volume of production in Japan. Therefore, this week, volatility may increase. Probably we can expect for further strengthening of JPY in the frames of current downtrend. The oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimously indicate the good moment to open the deals to SELL, after the price correction, which occurred yesterday.

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NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis
Today we would look at the development of the exchange rate between the New Zealand and the American dollars. Previously the pair moved within the 0.6860-6990 frame, but we saw the pair take a bullish turn as it broke above 0.7000 and it even reached the important level of 0.7100. The bullish influence continued in full heat and new heights were reached at the levels of 0.7250-0.7350, which serves as the pair’s sell zone.
The NZD/USD then finally returned to a bearish movement and dropped to 0.6960. This proved to be a weak support, as the pair tends to return to the border of the buy zone 0.6860, where we started. After touching this level the pair began climbing back up from 0.6960.
As the pair seems to be oscillating between these levels, we have opportunities to both buy and sell it at important intervals. Watch out for the pair dropping and also for it rising to 0.7100. This still provides a lot of resistance and the NZD/USD has struggled to overcome it. If it does success, it will likely go up to 0.7250.
At the moment of the publication of this article the pair has retreated to 0.6956 and most indicators agree that this is a strong sell.

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NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis
Today we would look at the development of the exchange rate between the New Zealand and the American dollars. Previously the pair moved within the 0.6860-6990 frame, but we saw the pair take a bullish turn as it broke above 0.7000 and it even reached the important level of 0.7100. The bullish influence continued in full heat and new heights were reached at the levels of 0.7250-0.7350, which serves as the pair’s sell zone.
The NZD/USD then finally returned to a bearish movement and dropped to 0.6960. This proved to be a weak support, as the pair tends to return to the border of the buy zone 0.6860, where we started. After touching this level the pair began climbing back up from 0.6960.
As the pair seems to be oscillating between these levels, we have opportunities to both buy and sell it at important intervals. Watch out for the pair dropping and also for it rising to 0.7100. This still provides a lot of resistance and the NZD/USD has struggled to overcome it. If it does success, it will likely go up to 0.7250.
At the moment of the publication of this article the pair has retreated to 0.6956 and most indicators agree that this is a strong sell.

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NZD/JPY: short market review and forecast

The NZD/JPY rates is in the frames of rapid downward trend. However, the new Zealand dollar had stopped falling and consolidated in the range 76,0 - 76,76 JPY. Yesterday it's been received important statistics related with 2 currencies. Economic statistics from New Zealand, positively impacted the NZD. The consumer price index grew in 2.2% year on year, exceeding forecasts. It is also the highest annual growth rate since 2011. For the 1st quarter of the year the index grew in 1%, slightly exceeding forecasted 0.8% level. At the moment, that was enough to stabilize the exchange rate of the NZD. In a week, the market expects new data about trade balance of New Zealand that may affect the value of the NZD.
On the other hand, the trade balance of Japan, already known, and taking into account seasonal fluctuations, amounted to only 0.17 T, although it was expected that this indicator will be 3 times more, and will be at 0.61. That's disappointed investors, although overall the economy of Japan is at good level. Volume of exports and imports grew, and exceeded predicted forecasted values. This also becomes the main growth factor of the Japanese economy in the future. Investors expect growth by 1% in 2017.
At this moment, the oscillators MACD, Stochastics, the RSI are neutral. It should be noted that since April 10, we can see formation of the flat trend, thought at the moment, it is early to say about ending of the downtrend. There're no enough preconditions for that. You should pay attention to the points of entry 76.75 and 76.2 JPY. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, it is recommended to open the short deals on the trend.

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EUR/SGD: fundamental review and forecast


The rates of the EUR/SGD continue to be in the frames of the downward trend. It was expected that this week volatility on the market will decrease until announcement the results of the elections in France, but yesterday the UK's Prime Minister Teresa May announced about holding of early parliamentary elections. The market reacted positively and the Pound strengthened that had an impact on the value of the EUR. The decision about early elections is perceived positively because it can remove uncertainty on the question of the Brexit. Results of the UK's elections, will show surely if they move towards the exit from the EU or, in case of victory the opponents of Brexit, will finally leave this question. Thus, investors expect from new Parliament clear political and economic course. The Singapore dollar was under the significant pressure since yesterday. Stable macroeconomic statistics were unable to change anything amid significant political events, which directly affect the future of the EU.
At the moment the oscillators Stochastics and MACD unanimous in the decision to open a short deals. After a significant price hike amid the news, the rates may continue in the frames of the downtrend. Now the rates consolidated and can go down. So, upon short term trading, the deals to SELL is the best solution. Upon medium-term trading, it is better to wait few days before the election in France. Based on that results we can obtain absolutely new value of the Euro in case of victory of Marie Le Pen, otherwise it will be strengthened for some time.

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