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hmm elliot wave huh. Looks like GDX and especially GDXJ could be in impulse wave 5. I'm sitting back waiting. If I enter it will be JDST this time.
I have been posting this for awhile. I agree with you, deflation is the threat. Only thing is that deflation takes everything down. This is why currently I am bearish on everything. Right now I am in nothing, zero, ziltch.
Big banks have been manipulating everything that trades for decades. I don't think that is new. So DB admits to manipulating silver, only thing that is new is they admitted it.
Look, all I hear everywhere is the absolute promise of gold going well above $1300 and mining companies are the greatest companies ever. Alright then fine, gold hasn't done squat for well over a month now, mining companies through the roof during that time being pumped up by promises. Fine, cool, pumpers should now deliver. Lets go! I hear the talk, lets walk the walk.
Mining companies are priced as if gold was already well over $1300 and they are priced as if they are making great earnings. The gold bug pumping squad had better deliver. Gold had better stop goofing around and get its butt over $1300 and mining companies had better deliver some darn good earnings when they report soon. Promises had better become reality.
As far as DB goes what you had better really hope is that DB and the rest of the banking sector isn't in shambles like you gold bugs think it is. You do realize that your precious mining companies are loaded with debt. You do realize that your mining companies can not survive without banks. Banks go toast, then mining companies go toast. "O well mining companies have metals in reserves". Ya but they have huge debts. When you owe a debt your assets (reserves) don't really belong to you.
Gold bugs think there will be a big financial meltdown and so they load up in mining companies. Mining companies are heavily dependent on banks though. It would be as if I say the foundation of my house is cracking and so I need a good place to find safety as I can't stay in my house and so I'm going to go and hang out on my roof. Gold bugs had better stick to just having actual gold/silver and leave mining companies alone if they think a financial meltdown is looming. Otherwise they are just betting against themselves.
I'm not in DUST right now. I did make a good profit this week. I want to see how good you guys can pump up the miners before I re-enter DUST again. Enough talking and enough yapping. Time to see gold over $1300 and mining companies had better deliver with strong earnings. These promises don't happen and your mining companies will correct hard.
Yea, I'm chilling, not rushing back yet, but I will get back in again.
The GDX correction when it comes I think depends on what is happening. I believe that the the gold bugs are probably right overall that the gold sector has entered a new bull cycle. I know things don't go straight up though, never have and never will. My thoughts are that the GDX rise in January and February were real and sustainable but since then mostly from pumping or "over optimism" to say it nicer. All in all from what I can anticipate out there in the world my guesstimation is that GDX corrects to 17ish once it actually goes through a correction. 14 could happen but gold would have to drop back down to 1100s and the dollar would have to stay up in the 90s and economic data would have to not be terrible. I wouldn't bet on 14 but 17 to me seems realistic.
Now if there is a financial meltdown then GDX goes down to 6-8 bucks. Reason is that as I have explained before mining companies depend on banks to survive. If banks are in deep trouble then everything that banks service (mining companies included) are in trouble. Gold bugs don't seem to get that.
Anyway my final guess would be GDX corrects to 17ish once it finally corrects.
Unless one is living under a rock everyone knows about the china gold fix thing. It has been used for weeks for pumping. It is all over the internet.
A couple of things from my past observations. First as I have said before it is possible that since they are using that event as a rallying cry that it will be the time they actually start dumping. You know sell the news kind of thing. Usually what happens.
Second weed, guns, and gold sectors usually get pumped together from what I have seen in the past. The weeds have been on a roll just like miners. I'd call this a winter time pump for miners and a very good one. From past observations these winter pumps (the good ones) last awhile and start in January and don't end until mid to late April...on average, give or take.
Third, mining companies are about to report Q1 earnings. They will not be all that good. They will be better then Q4 though but they have to be better, they can't get any worse and metals are up a good amount since Q4. Q4 earnings were bad but miners got a pass. At that time though the stock market was very bearish and gold was going up and the valuations of miners was a ton lower. They won't get a pass this time. Matter of fact I have seen expected estimates and miners had better hit those estimates at a minimum. ABX for instance is supposed to earn 8 cents a share. They better. People have paid up big time and paid huge valuations for miners. Investors will expect quality earnings. If you pay quality prices then you expect quality results. Earnings better deliver.
You put those 3 things together and I'd say chances are good in next 2 weeks or so mining companies have the proper correction that they are due. I was tempted to re-enter DUST today but I did not. I'm still on the sidelines. I want to see how much more of a pump they can get out of the china fix deal.
Good strong close. We are looking good for Monday.
lol, yea couldn't help myself. Lets hope it closes strong. Friday afternoon sellers are usually brutal. That is my only concern, so far so good though.
I agree with all. +-DI converging nicely as well. It is making all the right moves right now.
Back in SKLN, can't help myself. It is making the right moves right now. Volume is strong, it flipped the PAR/SAR, it broke past 32dma, it broke RSI 30. Heck with it, got back in at 24 cents.
Yea, I'm liking the volume on it. Made my money so not looking back. It does not look done to me at all though. Looks like it has legs. I agree 28-30 cents should be attainable and if past that then much higher maybe next week.
Ok cool, thanks, O and that USAA precious metals fund you have to be military or a veteran to join up with USAA so just keep that in mind. Anyway basically it is like the GDX but I think with better performance and less costs.
Yea, I'm just sitting on the sidelines waiting right now. As I posted yesterday I sold. I'd like it to be lower hanging fruit the it is right now so I'm waiting.
Ah, well remember how I have talked about the USAA precious metals fund a lot on here? That is because I know it well because I have been in it on and off through the years. On average twice a year I think it is cheap so I buy it and twice a year I think it is getting expensive so I sell it. Yes I had it late last year and yes I sold it maybe about a month ago. It is a very good mutual fund and that is normally what I buy. Other then that NEM I like when it isn't so expensive and I like EXK as my silver play when it isn't so expensive. I used to play LSG but they merged.
Why? what you got? I'll listen to you. You are smart, I respect you. I'm not buying any miners/funds/ETFs until the sector corrects properly though but I will certainly take your recommendations and put them on list for when there is a sector correction.
Took the 32 day moving avg for an exit on SKLN. 35% gain, not great but I'll take it. I'll keep watching it because down the road maybe soon, maybe later it will have more juice.
2 days...had two days in the sun. Yes enjoyed them, thanks. Sold yesterday. On sidelines right now looking for another entry. Have a good weekend.
I've been waiting awhile on SKLN, finally is right. Have a look at RFIL. Decent prospect.
The guy thinks the financial world will tumble so he wants to load up in companies (miners) that are heavily dependent on that very same financial world he is trying to protect himself from.
I'll give a good analogy
The foundation to my house is cracking. It isn't safe at all. I need to find shelter. I'm going to go and chill out on my roof.
Deutsche Bank has problems and they are very fragile right now and many know it. EU banks are fragile also. Things do not look great. Most of the US risk right now is because we are tied to the EU a lot. This guy who wrote this is right about all of that.
However, he then is suggesting gold and mining stocks. Well, sorry that doesn't make any sense. Gold yea but mining stocks no. Again, mining companies have been poorly ran and they have huge debt burdens. They rely on banks heavily. If there is going to be a financial meltdown then anything that relies on banks is going to suffer greatly. That will absolutely include mining companies. Mining companies are not going to survive without banks.
2008 again, while Lehman Bros and Bear sterns and the financial system was melting down in Sep and Oct 2008 so were mining stocks, reason is that anything tied to or dependent on the banks is also in deep trouble. Mining stocks started to recover but only after the bailout went through for the banks in Oct 2008.
If there is too be a financial meltdown then it will also hit mining companies. It will hit everything. All sectors in the stock market will get smashed. Mining sector included. You can not hide from the stock market by still being in the stock market. Mining stocks are stocks and are part of the market. This guy with his experience and knowledge should know this.
Lastly, he says that wall st and the media have been bashing mining stocks lately. Lol, yea right, they have been pumping the mining sector like mad.
My conclusion is that this guy started off with very good information and is right about EU frailness but then tried to tie it to why we should all buy mining stocks. In my opinion it was a very bad attempt. He should have tied it to gold itself and only gold/silver. It went wrong when he tried to tie in mining stocks. If this guy buys mining stocks because he thinks there is going to be financial meltdowns then he is betting against himself. He should just stay with actual gold/silver. He could even short the market if he is so sure. Maybe even buy bear X 3 ETFs that short sectors, I don't know like TZA SPXS DRIP etc, hey I know another one DUST! No seriously he should have just stuck with tieing things to actual gold/silver and left the mining stocks out of it.
I read that about unemployment claims. The labor market is looking pretty decent and so is housing. I don't completely believe the numbers that the government puts out but I also listen to what businesses say. Low wage employers like restaurants are saying they are having a hard time keeping employees right now. There are a lot of people quitting for better paying jobs. Wages are growing. These things should have already been happening but now finally they are. It has been a very weak recovery for 8 years but now finally the labor market actually looks decent. Not from what the government says but from what business says. When the labor market is turning from an employer market to an employee's market, that is positive.
I had a nice day. As posted earlier I sold as I anticipated GDX/miner "dip buyers"
I am on the sidelines right now but not done here yet at all. Miners are bloated right now and pumped up. The promise of gold going well over $1300 is all over the place. It had better happen, and I'm not saying it can't/won't happen, but if it doesn't and I'd estimate within one month then miners are going to be sold and heavily.
GDX had 5 gaps ups in the daily chart. Alright the top one filled, now it has 4 open gaps. If gold doesn't do what has been promised it will do then a few more of those gaps will be filling I would bet.
I know about the China "fix". I don't trust the Chinese, most of the world doesn't and besides everything they touch seems to crash. Anyway I'm not a dummy so I know well enough to be cautious but I also know well enough to be suspicious about the promises of gold. I guess I am waiting and seeing.
I get the whole story of miners this year and all of the how and why they went up. In my view some is sustainable and some isn't if gold doesn't hit what has been promised. In the meantime I'll grab low hanging fruit as I have done as it becomes available. Good luck to you and best wishes.
I sold at 2.50, 13% profit. I am not done here at all though. I was just locking in another gain. I'm not done here until the pinch fully relieves and it hasn't even really started that yet. I just figured that today there might be some "dip buying" in miners here sometime today now not knowing what the heck they are doing, so I am stepping out but just for a little bit and let the "dip buyers" come into GDX/miners and give them a bit of a bounce.
Eh, you'll be fine I'm sure. You get that top GDX gap close and you'll be about even.
GDX doesn't look so good right now and gold looks worse. I saw more pumping articles this morning. I'm nice and green now and sitting back with my feet up.
That is exactly my current average 2.20. From 3 different buy in points of 2.60, 2.15, and 2.05.
I just saw a huge sell on gold about 5 minutes ago. It dropped 9 dollars in 1 second. That gold chart isn't looking so good. On the daily left shoulder 1263 head 1283 right shoulder 1263. If gold breaks down (not a certainty to me) GDX is in deep trouble because those pumpers and momentum players that loaded up in mining stocks lately will run for the hills. Those are not the "buy and hold" type.
I'm not sold on this being the reversal either. Certainly can't confirm it at all yet. I was talking about the gaps in the GDX daily chart btw.
Yea shocking lol. As expected, anyway we need to see GDX break down below this support as you stated. Then I have my eyes on those two recent gap ups that will want to fill. That would take GDX down to 20.23.
From there it depends on gold. The pumpers have told the world that gold will be over $1300. Gold had better do so and within a month I'd estimate. If it doesn't then there is another gap up which has not filled at just over 17 bucks. It is a tiny gap of only 4 cents or something but a gap is a gap. I bet that one would fill also if gold doesn't do what the pumpers promised and get up and over $1300.
There are are two more at 15.5ish and 13.5ish but those getting filled are way out past my time horizon so I'm not concentrating on those, but they are there. For 15.5 to fill gold would have to go back down to 1100s IMO. Like I said I will not be looking for those two bottom gaps, past my time horizon.
Once DUST and JDST relieve their pinch I will be done flipping here. GDX filling the gap at 17 would absolutely give DUST a good enough run to relieve the pinch it has. GDX filling that 17 gap I think could take awhile but it will happen if what pumpers in TV media/websites/articles/social media promised doesn't come to fruition.
Yes you are right. I think it could be tough to crack for a little bit. I think it will though eventually.
Now I am seeing talk about the insolvency of miners and their high debt levels and bad balance sheets all of the sudden today on media/social media lol. Nope, not a peep about this over the last 3 weeks though. Yep just like a pump job. Talk them up and pump and then bash them for the dump. Pump and dumps go beyond just the OTC.
I think so too. I never did have to use my big boy money. In at avg 2.20. I'd like to get 5-10% on the trade. I think miners are going to link back up with gold now as they should. Once I take a profit from this trade then I will continue to trade and flip DUST and JDST until their pinches relieve. I'll probably be here flipping for the next month. I like it here a lot. Currently I am 8 out of 9 on trades here and it was while DUST was still down trending. Eventually the downtrend will stop and it will be a lot easier to flip then.
Is there FED news today gulp!
O yea, there are plenty out there that are buying miners right now. Instead of buy low and sell high they follow buy high and hope to sell higher.
Speaking of junior miners I actually think JDST might be a better buy then DUST, negligible though.
OTC is not the only place pump jobs happen. They happen in the big boards all the time. Yea it takes a ton of money. The big fish have the money though.
Big boards take much more money but there are much bigger fish. Now I'm not saying for sure it was intentional. Have a look around. TV media/social media/internet websites/articles/message boards all trying to get people to buy into a sector that is currently parabolic and up 150% in 3 months. That is pumping. They are pumping. Intentional or not it doesn't matter so I don't bother trying to figure that out.
Not talking about in January or February but since then miners have gone way up as if gold is has gone way up. Gold has been sideways for over a month now. Miners are way up as if gold had been doing the same. Gold had better actually get moving up and over $1300.
I don't know for sure if GDX drops to $17. It depends on gold. What I do know is that miners have gone way way way up lately while gold hasn't done squat so if gold continues to do squat then the pump job of miners is going to turn into the second phase of a pump and dump IMO.
If gold can't get to $1300 within a month then yes I think GDX drops down to $17 after. IF gold gets moving then the GDX correction will only be done to $20.
Everyone who says buy miners right now is giving a promise that gold will get and stay over $1300 and higher. Alright so the promise is out there. It better be delivered or dump phase will visit the miners.
I look at that the chart of miners and they scream pump job. Those are the charts of pump jobs. Those are not the charts of money managers re-allocating their underweight positions. Parabolic charts are pump jobs. I sure money managers have bought up some miners but when they buy stuff up they don't do it in a parabolic manner. If I had a money manager taking my money and buying into stuff that went parabolic I visit him and smack the crap out of him. A damn professional should know better and they do know better.
They are also charts of short squeezing. Short squeezing ends after awhile and is not something that is lasting.
Everywhere on the internet everyone is saying miners going much much higher. Isn't it funny there is way more of this now that miners are up 150% in 3 months.
Pump job pump job pump job. It is just a pump. It is clear as day to me. I'm not talking about January and February. That was real and sustainable but movements lately all pump job.
Finally yes, mining companies have done some good work cutting costs. However their valuations have risen 150% in 3 months. The mining sector right now is the most expensive sector in the stock market. Their valuations are too darn high right now.
Gold had better stop trading sideways like it has for the last month and better actually go up and go up a good amount or you will certainly see what comes after a pump phase.
You are very smart and make good calls but I think your original idea is the right one. There is no doubt about it. Miners are in a pump job. The chart shows it too. You know what the GDX actually should correct down to and I agree with that as well. GDX correcting to only 20 only takes out the parabolic pump job part. That was the part you were no expecting. That part is phony. GDX will correct down to what it should have corrected to in the first place and that is 17. Don't let the pump influence your good judgement IMO.
Only caveat is unless gold jumps over $1300. As of now though I think your original opinion will be dead on accurate.
Yes, that is a good summary. I would agree for the most part.
Gold is down again today and GDX up a tad last I checked. The pump job is banking that gold goes up. It really really needs to now with the insane valuations that miners have. If gold doesn't go over 1300 bucks AND HOLD like the pumpers say then the GDX won't just correct, it will correct hard down to at least $17 and possibly lower.
Right now miners are in a dream world. Gold had better actually go up. Not the promise that it does but actually start moving up or the miner dream world with their ridiculously high valuations will turn into a nightmare.
Also much of this is what I was posting about last night. Shorts were heavily into miners and they got squeezed. I think most of the squeezing is done but it played a big roll into how GDX got to where it is. Now it is mostly pump job. Technical bounce, then crappy market, then gold went up, then short squeezing and now pump job. That is the order of events of how miners have been running for 3 months.
Yep I remember. That is what she said.
People probably mostly took it that she is having to defend the decision to rate hike back in December (to her own self) and if she has to defend it then and no one is even talking about it then sub-consciously she is shaky about it herself. Which means she would be even more shaky about future hikes. That would be the thinking among wall st I would guess.
That would lead to a market rally and oil rally etc etc and drop the dollar. All of this happened. Makes sense, except for one thing. Gold didn't really rally that much, I mean eh it went up some. The miners went nuts though. That is the one disconnect.
Anyway something like that (Yellen yapping) can cause a 3 or so day move. It was Thursday night so 3 trading days have completed since. Most and myself included believe the FED will do 1 raise this year and it will be in September or December. If global growth actually gets going then maybe one in June but I doubt it. Most already see it this way. Matter of fact wall st only expects 1 hike this year. If the miner pump job was ignited because Yellen said the Dec one wasn't a mistake and hence people think there will only be 1 this year then absolutely this miner pump job will end very soon as that is not new information or unexpected information.
Gold is going to have to get passed 1264 and then 1280 for this pump job to continue though. Miners can't stay disconnected from gold like this for too much longer. I only think now that GDX could get to $27 if gold gets passed 1280 and tries to get to $1300. The pump job isn't going to cut it and get GDX up there if gold doesn't participate.
Him and I are working on it lol. Here is what I have come to theorize so far.
Mining stocks have been heavily shorted for years now. They are easy targets because well, basically they are kind of crappy companies that are poorly ran and even in gold's hay day miners profit performance was lackluster so shorts have been having a field day with miners for years.
Every now and again shorts would get over-extended and this would show up in the chart as a pinch. A bit of a squeeze would ensure but ultimately the miner downtrend continued through the years.
With miners being heavily shorted this year's market start sparked something different. Many went into miners as a "hedge" which I think is silly as I have given my reasons before but anyway many did this. With miners already being pinched this caused pressure on shorts that were holding positions.
Then gold started to go up as well. This added to the desire to buy up miners. Up further they went.
Then gold stopped going up and has been trading sideways however the momentum from the before mentioned events caused momentum players to join in. Then all the FED yapping stuff fueled even more buying in miners but not gold.
Now we are at all out pumping phase for the miners. Shorts that were still in certainly felt the squeeze and have been dropping their short position, causing more of a run up in miners.
When I see a pinch and a W bottom usually the over-extended short position has been reduced back to a normal short position once the W completes. For miners this is a bit different because something or some group or something picked up the miners once they finished the W and were in that wedge. The miners were picked up and now a pumping campaign is on-going.
Once the pump gets absurd enough big money shorts will kick the crap out of miners again. It looks like right now they are waiting for the right spot to come back in. I am sure they will come back because the fundamentals of miners are still very crappy. Nothing at all changed with that.
To conclude, A chart pinch in mining stocks lead to a technical bounce which started short covering. Then a crappy market lead to "hedge" buying which also lead to more short covering. Then gold went up which lead to more miner buying and then lead to actual short squeezing. Then gold stops going up and the market stabilizes with oil. Then the W in mining charts completes and things start to level off and miners look to correct but then something/someone/s gets a hold of miners and begins a big pumping campaign and uses all the previous events as "reasons" to continue (as well as the FED and their goofiness) and turn the entire sector parabolic. This parabolic pump job will not sustain. Short squeezing is probably finished, the W has been completed and the inverse to the miners are now pinched (DUST/JDST). Equilibrium the other way will now have to happen to relieve the pinch of the inverse which will happen from shorts repositioning as well as dumping miners after the pumping phase as well as a crash from a parabolic rise.
That's my guess. Only thing for me I am trying to figure out is if the pumping campaign will have enough juice to get and keep GDX over $23 and if it does can they get it to $27. We'll cross that bridge and see soon enough.
Well I believe the 7th was when the FED announced their un-scheduled meeting. Maybe big boys started to load up anticipating something.
Also possible is a short squeeze. Remember how I was talking about pinches and equilibrium? Well back before miners went on this huge run guess what? They were pinched. The mining sector (because of their poor fundamentals) are always a target for shorts. Mining stocks are heavily shorted. It is possible that even with their run up from January through March that the short positions were still large enough that once GDX was in that wedge there in the first part of April that remaining shorts decided they were going to cover and that might have started a squeeze.
It is also possible that the first paragraph had a role to play with my second paragraph. The one thing I know for fact is pinches must get relieved and depending on how out of whack the equilibrium is or has been it causes an over-reaction to the other side. If shorts were very very deep into miners then it is possible that their position could take months to fully peel back. Therfore on April 7th it was possible that shorts were still holding a position and decided to exit.
Having said that though there is also something else out there. There is massive TV media/promotion/website/message board/social media pumping on-going as well. This is something different from the top two things. This is also on-going and is what adds the gasoline to the first two things. There is a force behind all of this pumping.
I see what you are saying about the chart. You are right. The real hard core pump campaign started April 7th. Something changed or more likely intensified starting that day. The one thing is though is that it was not gold. Gold has been trading flat for a month. It isn't anything fundamental that I can tell. It is something that is part of that dark world of the market IMO.
Yes, I think it is possible for the GDX to get up to $27. Pumping campaigns are very effective and they work. I am not part of the "pumping" and as such have no real idea how far they want to take it.
Look at a two year chart of GDX. You will see almost a perfect W. At what leg does this W end from levels from before. Right now it is at the $23 level. If GDX gets past that then yes the next level for that W would be $27. If they are able to pull that off though at that time it would most likely be all used up. They are down to pumping fluff stuff now. By then there won't even be fluff stuff and the mining sector will be at earnings ratios of 100 which is really unbelievable.
Equilibrium will have to balance out eventually. Does it happen sooner or later I do not know, sorry.