Staying busy livin'
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PS to the last message...RE:Goldman Sachs not coming up with the loan to AIG....
GS reports "earnings" today. LOL
They better have SOMETHING GOOD, cuz they're the biggest of the only 2 remaining humongous investment banks still surviving at the moment and still trading at $135 bucks.
I wonder how long it'll take them to go from $135 to $5 bucks like AIG if they don't cough up some kind of decent report.
All kinds of cross-currents swirling around the world markets and AIG in particular overnight and early this morning.
Central banks all the way from Japan to Australia to England have "injected liquidity" into their markets(printing their own currencies) overnight.
On the one hand this would seem to be good for the silver price in those countries due to the inflationary nature of printing more money....
but on the other hand, this brings them more into parity with the USD, which for us makes the USD rise in relation to the Euro, Yen, AUD etc which I guess will have the effect of driving the price of silver down in US Dollars?????
Throw in the fact that AIG was saying yesterday that they needed a bridge loan of $40 Billion from the Fed who apparently rejected that option and then began trying to facilitate a loan to AIG from Goldman Sachs and some other entity...for $70 Billion!!!...Hmmmmmm...???
And after the close yesterday, AIG was finally downgraded by two rating firms...something AIG and the market was hoping wouldn't happen because that then creates the need for AIG to raise even more capital....hence the $70 Billion rather than just $40 Billion.
And today there's speculation that the FED, rather than raising the interest rate a quarter point may now lower the rate by HALF a point! That would also be good for Silver/Bad for the USD....and to top it off...AIG is now bidding up fueling speculation that the Fed may have changed it's mind and is now going to bail out AIG!!!...????...No Goldman Deal???? Talk again of it being a firm that's "TOO BIG TO FAIL". I smell a BAIL OUT AND DOLLAR DILUTION again!
And the talking heads in Europe this morning arrived at the conclusion,(after asking themselves where the best place to put money would be now), that investors should put their money in a SAVINGS ACCOUNT!
The American analyst/talking head who was asking the questions then said in a disgusted tone of voice..."is this where we are now? That the best investment advice we can get is to put your money in a savings account?" They all just sat there silently looking at him. That was the best answer they could come up with.
It's incredible.
USD vs EURO comparison charts
The way I understand it VIP, is that literally everything now hinges on the housing market. And from all the info I've been able to put together I'd estimate the housing bottom/stabilization to happen in roughly 9mths to 1 yr from right now.
And if the market is truly a forward looking animal that sees approx 6mths into the future I'm guessing that the buying won't start for at least 3 mths to 6 mths from right now.
Put another way...we have 4 1/2-6mths more downside in the overall market.
Just a humble opinion by your's truly of course, but that's what I'm going on for my strategy.
Silver was up. :D / USD was down. :(
Putting a floor under silver? Imports increasing/supply diminishing.
http://www.kitcosilver.com/
Latest Silver News
India's silver imports seen surging on lower prices - Reuters India, Sep 15 2008 5:25AM
Sterling Mining Company Suspends Production at Sunshine Mine - Marketwire, Sep 15 2008 9:08AM
India to import 300 tonnes silver in Sept - Economictimes, Sep 15 2008 5:15AM
India to import 300 tonnes silver in Sept - trade - Reuters India, Sep 15 2008 3:35AM
Gold, silver up over 2% on US financial jitters - Mining Weekly, Sep 15 2008 3:35AM
Gold, silver up over 2 pct on US financial jitters - Forbes.com, Sep 14 2008 11:24PM
Gold, silver gains top 2pc - Financial Review, Sep 14 2008 10:54PM
UPDATE 1-Gold, silver up over 2 pct on US financial jitters - Reuters, Sep 14 2008 10:04PM
Gold, silver up over 2 pct on US financial worries - Reuters, Sep 14 2008 9:14PM
Historical charts...trying to see what's happened in the past to precious metals during times like this.
http://www.chartsrus.com/
Except for the Lions and "busting my ass" parts, you took the words right out of my mouth.
OOOOOOOOOO eeeeeeeeeeee! The chit's in the wind now! And heading directly for the big fan!
Put on your goggles and get out the rain gear.
For the real numbers on supply/demand/and production make sure to bookmark and explore this site if you haven't already.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply/index.php
By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9/11/2008 3:13:00 PM
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures, suffering from the longest losing streak
in eight years, dropped below $750 an ounce Thursday for the first time in nearly
a year -- and analysts say the price of the precious metal may have finally
bottomed.
"Gold prices might already be trading at oversold levels," wrote Tobias Merath,
head of commodity research at Credit Suisse, in a note released Thursday.
"Fundamentals still speak in favor of a recovery to $900 or slightly higher in
the next few months."
Gold for December delivery fell $17, or 2.2%, to close at $745.50 an ounce on the
Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday, the first time the
metal closed below $750 since last October. After market closed, it moved higher
in electronic trading. See Metals Stocks.
Click for Detail
Gold hasn't recorded a single upward session this month and it has fallen more
than $90 in the nine trading days since Aug. 28. In the previous month, the
precious metal lost $89.20, the biggest monthly loss since at least 1984. The
precious metal is now more than $250 lower than its record high above $1,000 hit
in March.
"An important low is at hand and while some base building will be needed, we'll
be above $800 again" before then end of the year, said Peter Grandich, editor of
the Grandich Letter.
Investor demand for physical gold is still strong, said Jeffrey Christian,
managing direct of commodities consultancy CPM Group. Demand in markets such as
Mumbai and Dubai have held up well.
"Investors in physical metal appear to be taking the drop in prices as an
opportunity to buy more metal at lower prices," he said.
On the gold ETF side, there has been only marginal liquidation of gold ETF
holdings -- about 1 million ounces over the past five weeks, according to
Christian's calculations.
In comparison, open interest on the Comex, or total futures contract outstanding,
has dropped 63,684 contracts in the same period, or about 63.7 million ounces,
according to data from Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
Dollar pushes down commodities
Gold is moving broadly in line with other commodities and broadly in an inverse
pattern with the dollar, Christian said.
Gold isn't the only commodity that has suffered losses as the dollar rallied.
Crude has dropped almost $50 from its record high and is now approaching the
$100-a-barrel psychological level. Corn was trading at the lowest in more than
one month.
In the currencies market, the euro Thursday broke through its psychologically
important level of $1.40. The dollar is also trading near its strongest level
against the British pound in more than two years. See Currencies.
Click for Detail
Historically, dollar-denominated gold prices tend to move in the opposite
direction of the greenback. A stronger greenback tends to push down
dollar-denominated gold prices as it makes gold less appealing as an alternative
investment.
"We are experiencing a massive hedge fund panic into the dollar, and that hurts
gold," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.
But a further sharp appreciation of the dollar is unlikely given the problems in
the U.S. financial system, said Credit Suisse's Merath.
The U.S. financial industry witnessed the most dramatic change in decades when
the Treasury Department announced over the weekend that the government will take
over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the home mortgage loan giants. Shares of the two
firms plunged to below $1 after the announcement.
I'm mostly using the board to help me keep my own thoughts straight on all this stuff going on, and writing it out helps me to solidify it all in my mind and make sense of it.
If anybody else finds it helpful, that's a bonus.
In this particular situation there's so damned many variables to keep track of I could never keep it all in my head at once.
Thanks for giving me someone to bounce this stuff of off. Otherwise I'd just be talking to myself. LOL
Chavez kicks U.S. ambassador out of Venezuela and threatens to cut off shipments of oil to U.S.
Man what a shitstorm this is all turning into.
As Obama put it once referring to his historic nomination and the state of the country..."a confluence of the current of events and the tide of history."
And then there's IKE. It's deep into the offshore oil fields and raging like a wild bull. Houston and it's refineries are in the middle of the bulls' eye too.
Well, oil is at the $100ish support. The USD is at the $80 resistance level. The rsi on the silver etf is below 30. Yesterday was 9/11. Lehman is going under and begging for a Fed bailout. Ford and the other automakers are standing in line with their hands out to the Fed...
The Feds are trying to tell Lehman to "buzz off. You blew it. Now deal with it."
Crude is up here and in London by a buck now. Gold and Silver are both up so far this morning.
Here's something else I just noticed. The small caps I still follow are all up this morning while the DOW is down. Could be the beginning of a big shift away from the bigs to the littles again? Too early to tell for sure of course, but something to keep an eye on.
Gonna' be "interesting".
I heard today the the GLD ETF has actually sold 68 TONS of physical gold recently. I don't know exactly how that relates to the SLV ETF in silver, but it would be my guess that they're also liquidating physical metal.
On the other hand, I see the technical value of the RSI.
I also wouldn't be surprised if 9/11 hasn't been the target date for the bottom of the SLV/GLD for quite a while.
I think the next 24 hrs will probably confirm if there's a bounce coming or not.
Another highlight from the previous article...
The last one is more of a technical factor than anything else - the 80 level on the USDX, or US Dollar Index, should be a pretty strong resistance level, having been a support for 22-23 years and then gotten decisively broken on the downside. There are those who say that the recent rapid rise and breakthrough of multiple resistance levels of 72, 74, 76 and 78 was due to manipulation and others who say otherwise.
If the 80 resistance level holds, we could expect a reversal and for the US dollar to do what it does best - which is to say, continue falling.
And if we get a good confirmation of 80 as a resistance level, the best it could do is probably to consolidate between 76 and 80.
OPEC announces production cut of 520,000 barrels per day
OPEC has agreed to cut crude oil production by 520,000 barrels per day in the next 40 days, OPEC's President and Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said on Wednesday [10 Sep 2008]. World oil prices rebounded following the announcement. NYMEX light sweet crude oil for Oct 2008 delivery rose to $104.17 in New York while Brent North Sea crude rose to $100.80. Oil had sunk below $100 for the first time in 5 months in London when Brent dropped to $99.04 on Tuesday, while NYMEX hit a low of $101.74. An OPEC spokesman said that OPEC members had agreed to "strictly" comply with a quota target of 28.8 million barrels per day. The OPEC statement identified a shift in sentiment in the oil market linked to falling economic growth, a strengthening dollar, easing geopolitical tensions and greater supply.
- The following factors are converging around this time period, as I've noted over on peakoil.com :
1. OPEC announcing production cut by 520,000 barrels per day.
2. The Beijing Olympics shutdown is scheduled to be lifted next week.
3. USDX is rapidly approaching the 80 resistance level.
OPEC is obviously defending the $100 price level. Before this announcement, it was all just rumour and market talk, and now this is pretty much confirmed. The market was jittery with conflicting "news", some saying that OPEC would keep output steady, and some saying Iran among others had been calling for output cuts. OPEC had been raising production by around 500 kbpd around Jul-Aug as oil prices shot to new records, and all they are doing here is to revert back to the earlier level. Peakoilers have noted that it's likely mostly heavy sour crude anyway, which would just go to show how things at the margin can have a big impact.
As for the second factor, the Beijing Olympics was over on 24 Aug 2008, but the Chinese authorities decided to give the factories and half the Beijing-area car fleet a "mandatory rest" till 20 Sep 2008, in order to continue giving the tourists a "good impression". It's all a matter of "face trumping economy". My hypothesis is that the traders would need to start buying on behalf of China about a week or so before the factories restart and the cars get back to the roads, as the supply chain takes about a week to fill, so the timing could be right around these few days or so. Of course I could be wrong and they could have stockpiled some inventory in which case the timing would be off by however long the inventory lasts, but it is definitely nowhere near the US SPR's capacity of 1 month's worth of demand. My only worry being that the state of the global economy would be so terrible by then that they did *not* need to restart those factories. That would be something.
The last one is more of a technical factor than anything else - the 80 level on the USDX, or US Dollar Index, should be a pretty strong resistance level, having been a support for 22-23 years and then gotten decisively broken on the downside. There are those who say that the recent rapid rise and breakthrough of multiple resistance levels of 72, 74, 76 and 78 was due to manipulation and others who say otherwise. If 80 holds, we could expect a reversal and for the US dollar to do what it does best - which is to say, continue falling. And we would get a good confirmation of 80 as a resistance level. And the best it could do is probably to consolidate between 76 and 80.
See also :
1. OPEC: High and volatile prices may be new norm
2. NYMEX crude oil prices fall to $105.46 as Hurricane Gustav fears fade
3. OPEC warns oil prices could rocket to $500 per barrel
4. The big Beijing 2008 Olympics China shutdown - commodities fall only temporary?
LIVE UPDATING PRICES/CHARTS...GOLD/SILVER/USD/FOREIGN CURRENCIES/CRUDE
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Oooooohhhh Man!...You're going to hell now for sure! LOL
Well, there's plenty to tizzy over these days even without an anniversary visit from Mohammed's more evil minions.
But I also wouldn't put it past Richard(The Dick)Cheney and his more evil minions to stage an anniversary visit either.
LOL
Posted by: teapeebubbles Date: Monday, September 08, 2008 10:22:24 PM
In reply to: arizona1 who wrote msg# 357142 Post # of 357665
message to that snotty Palin woman
Jesus was a Community Organizer.
Pontius Pilate was a Governor.
See the difference now, Mrs. Palin?
Thursday is the big anniversary isn't it.
Not unless they're disguising themselves as fall-run salmon. But if that is the case we're about to be invaded.
I think I'll take my shotgun with me when I go fishing...just in case.
In the short-term at least, these charts are beginning to look like they're at least approaching a capitulation sell-off vs a blow-off top.
Cramer just said..."The selloff in commodities is just beginning.", citing hedge funds bailing out. Pretty much as we suspected, although he see's no bottom in sight.
Still...a bounce on oil at $100 is a possibility. Be nimble, be quick, watch for the spike and hit the sell...CLICK!
Nice call! LOL
After uttering a similar phrase myself once, a very wise man said to me...
"Crap into one hand and wish into the other and see which one fills up faster."
Crude=$101.91=LOD and falling. 5 mth low.
T Boone Pickens coming up on CNBC saying he doesn't think crude will go much below $100
At this pace, that mark will be hit early in tomorrow's session.
Watch the USD/EURO/SLV/OIL prices tomorrow.
One possible support factor may yet hold the key. Crude is now at $102.++ and falling.
Watch for a bounce off the $100 dollar level and a corresponding reversal in the USD.
If this happens I think silver will get a bounce. How much and for how long? Not much and not for long would be my guess...if any at all. But I think I'd wait until I see what happens then before committing to sell out of silver altogether(if I hadn't done it already, which I did).
OPEC is meeting in the next day or two also. Figuring out what decision/effect that will have is "above my paygrade" as they say. LOL
Pick a support line. Any line. Then watch it break. Every penny down is another $10million in some big wig's pocket.
Down and down and down she goes. Where it stops only bigwig knows. $11, $10, $8, $6? $5 maybe? Or $4?
On the other hand, bread and oil will cost you less! Right? LOL
I don't think any further explanation is required other than it's being manipulated in order to cover the ultra-massive short positions taken by banks and hedgefunds irrespective of reality and actually forced on them by the inertia they themselves created by years and years of habitual shorting on the Comex paper-silver market.
And it doesn't really matter either imo. They've won the game and the little guy has no choice other than to go along and accept it regardless of any reality.
I don't trade stocks anymore. I'm just here to witness and chronicle the crumbling of the American empire and it's decay from the world's superpower to 3rd world status.
But thanks. There might still be somebody on this board that's interested in pinksheet LOIs. LOL
You're welcome. There's more too. Want to hear? LOL
I was listening to some very sober experts last night on Charlie Rose talking about the housing crisis and it's collateral effects.
40% of ALL MORTGAGE HOLDERS will be "underwater"(house worth less than what's owed on it)by the end of this year.
For them there's very little reason to hold on to the houses and MANY will opt to send their house keys back to the bank and walk away. There's even a new term for this phenomenon called "JINGLE MAIL" it's becoming so common.
The spiraling effect of this is reaching across the oceans now too and will likely bring the entire globe into recession as the U.S. consumer finally caves in.
No offense SB, but I can't make heads or tails out of that article. Is that one of those astrological analyses of the stock market?
It is truly amazing and totally baffling unless you consider the arguments for manipulation in those markets, in which case reality will have absolutely nothing to do with it.
On the other hand...I'd much rather see the USD continue to improve than to make a few bucks on silver. My silver was only intended as a small and temporary hedge against the falling dollar.
I'm not at all convinced yet though that we're anywhere near the end of this mega-debacle.
I still find it very interesting that even straight bullion(rounds/bars)continue to sell at a serious premium to the stock market/paper silver.
It's almost impossible to get an oz of bullion for less than $14 per,(although I have managed to snag a handful through persistence and a little luck) and that's before adding at least $3 for shipping.
Like you said, "something is totally out of kilter."
Did you see the chart and comments I made on silver's seasonal rally about this time every year for the last several years? Also, I wonder if Ken is watching that and what he might have to say about it. Have you talked to him about it by any chance?
Nope VIP, that's the good ole straight forward, run of the mill Baja Effect. Welcome to the club you poor soul. LOL
I guess it's gonna' take a day or two for it to sink in that the USD has just been diluted by a 14/9 ratio!
Or....
I was completely and totally wrong, AGAIN!
I report, YOU DECIDE! LOL
A lot of banks own a lot of Fannie/Freddie equity. With the govt now owning temporarily Fannie/Freddie and preparing to to take over even more failing banks and other financials, it looks like the door is about to open for the hedge funds to step in and start buying up these banks and financials...something they've been wanting to do in order to qualify for what now amounts to an implicit and now EXPLICIT "Federal Guarantee" of a bailout when(not if, when)they find it financially expedient to "fail" for whatever reason.
In other words...we're not only taking on the liability of Fannie/Freddie and god only knows how many failed bands, but also hedge funds that manage to step in and take these banks off the hands of the Fed Govt.
Talk about a slippery slope! Where does this stop? Will be be bailing out not only banks and financial institutions but soon adding non-transparent hedge funds and even entities like Ford/GM that are, in the words of the Treasury Secretary, "Just too big to allow them to fail."?