tarm at long so switching to 200% long. tarm flipped between long and short today a couple of time. But it is at long now and I have to enter trade early today. Yesterday's goof costed me 0.6% (at present).

My yesterday's goof has already started to cost me. Well two good things out of this.

- A lesson learned (stay away from ARTKOS)
- proof tarm is working.

Thank you very much.

Put me down for B.

In last 20 minutes, market went down, but NAMO went up.

A very interesting. S&P adjustment (outstanding v/s float adjustment) to affect QQQ. http://biz.yahoo.com/ifunds/040915/20040915_spfloat_new_etf_st_1.html

odiemutt, thanks for the heads up, I will definitely check this out by calling Rydex. But at present I believe, If an order is entered to move from ARTKOS to a dynamic fund before close of ARTKOS (i.e before 3:50), then the order will go through.

ARTKOS is -100% NDX fund. I said, I will not use it any more. I will use only the RYVNX, which is -200% NDX. Will deply only 50% funds if I have to go only 100% short.

I wanted to go 200% short on close of 13th. On 14th we went up. But today we went down. So the mistake costed me 1%. It's another story, that I did got a chance to fix that by changing to 200% yesterday, but I didn't (no specific reason, just thought I will stay put).

Damn. I goofed again. I wanted to go long 200%, but that stupid ARTKOS fund close is at 3:50 and not 3:55. So I am staying 100% short (I would have been 200% short from NDX=1427, but ended up with only 100%). Well last goof costed me about 1%. Let's see how much this cost me tomorrow.

One thing is sure, I am not going to use that 100% fund any more. Will use only dynamic 200% fund with 50% funds.

Is there any site where I can get the NDX at 2:50 pm for past 10 - 20 years ? Or does somebody has that data and willing to share ?

I will say just one word, "WOW" in reply to your post.

Thanks for your thoughts Steve.

Steve, now that 1410-1415 target is met, do you see seconf push to 1440 beginning today or tomorrw in your crystal ball ?

tarm switched to long, so I may go long (need to wait till EOD to see final signal), NAMO is at 20 now.

M, same thoughts here. It may reverse even today, but Steve's crystal ball is better.

Thank you Gizmo.

Gizmo,

One question on wash sale.

Are RYVNX (-200% NDX) and RYVYX (200% NDX) considered simillar fund for the wash sale rule ?

Thanks in advance
qqqbee

I am staying 100% short.

Warp, NAMP=43.06 and tarm switched to long. I may switch to 100% on close. But it's too early to say.

The links are getting truncated. Let me try again

1 year NDX with VXO
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[dd][pb50!b...

3 year NDX with VXO
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[df][pb50!b...

1 year NDX with VXN
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[dd][pb50!b...

3 year NDX with VXN
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[df][pb50!b...

Gizmo,

Thanks that was very good and had worked well in last one year, but if I am extending it for more than a year then it kinda breaks.

Since the chart is working since last 1 year, it is till very good tool. The best timing models are which changes with time and moves on to next one when current one stop working.

You can also try VXN instead of VXO.

Thanks for sharing.

(1 year VXO)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[dd][pb50!b....

(3 year VXO)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[df][pb50!b....

(1 year VXN)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[dd][pb50!b....

(3 year VXN)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[e,a]daclyiay[df][pb50!b....

Warp,

Thanks. That helps.

qqqbee

Marc, Steve, what's your position for tomorrow.

Decision was made very easy by Rydex. In morning, I entered a trade to move from cash to 100% short (Artkos). But it seems that fund do not have morning closing. I should have moved 50% money to RYVNX instead.

So when I tried to move all money to RYVNX, trade wasn't allowed as morning trade was till pending. By the time I could figure this out, it was already past closing time.

So I will be going 100% short instead of intended 200%.

Well one lesson learned. Let's see tomorrow, how much this goof costs me tomorrow.

<<< This is strange, I have only a +51.5 NAMO. Which is still pretty high. >>>>

My NAMO slipped to 52. (Not much change from last close of 50.69).


<<< BTW, looks like NDX in a cliff dive. I would prefer it stayed propped up. >>>

Agree. (Even though I am short right now). If it had stayed up, I would have been more confident for 200% short.

This drop is making the decision difficult. If it had stayed up, I would have been more comfortable to go 200% short. Now some overbought conditions are getting relieved. Moreover it can either drop below your channel or bounce and go up. Well I will wait till EOD to make final decision.

Warp, Where is your Vol adjusted NAMO ? My NAMO shows 57. Making up my mind for 200% short at close.

Statistics time.

Days when NAMO closed above 60 (on closing basis, not intraday) since 1990. I have seen intraday NAMO of 65 very recently.

05-Apr-04 61.39
06-Nov-02 63.93
04-Nov-02 66.41
01-Nov-02 60.31
02-May-01 69.69
01-May-01 65.67
30-Apr-01 61.59
19-Apr-01 66.92
18-Apr-01 60.37
24-Jan-01 62.97
23-Jan-01 66.95
22-Jan-01 61.97
19-Jan-01 67.41
18-Jan-01 77.15
17-Jan-01 80.48
16-Jan-01 79.25
12-Jan-01 75.56
11-Jan-01 69.81
06-Nov-98 71.92
05-Nov-98 73.14
04-Nov-98 74.58
03-Nov-98 71.90
02-Nov-98 81.03
30-Oct-98 75.84
29-Oct-98 72.18
28-Oct-98 69.76
27-Oct-98 74.00
26-Oct-98 78.09
23-Oct-98 75.84
22-Oct-98 75.07
21-Oct-98 69.69
20-Oct-98 66.90
09-Jan-92 69.47
08-Jan-92 62.62
07-Jan-92 61.95
06-Jan-92 64.99
03-Jan-92 60.42
31-Dec-91 63.83
11-Feb-91 70.39
08-Feb-91 65.28
07-Feb-91 69.35
06-Feb-91 84.92
05-Feb-91 85.17
04-Feb-91 80.40
01-Feb-91 73.16
31-Jan-91 70.51
30-Jan-91 63.68

Reason of today's SEMI bounce.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh44992_2004-09-13_14-34-26_n13...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/040913/broadcom_outlook_3.html

Scary chart for us shorts .
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^NDX&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

NAMO at 58

Moving to 100% short from cash. tarm at OB-Short. I didn't want to trade intraday as tarm is not tested intraday, but thought of giving a calculated risk try, eventhough it seems to be very strong push up.

Indicators are overbought but not at extreme, so limiting to 100%.

Sorry, don't know.

Look at crude. http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CLV04&o=&a=V%3A60&z=610x300&d=medium...

Oops sorry to both of you guys.

Marc,

Here are your answers.

<<<< What were the general criteria that moved tarm into cash, QQQ Bee >>>>

tarm underlying signal is still long, but the OB over-ride which i recently programed got triggered so is at stop.

<<<< Looks like I will book a new ATH, up 8.85% YTD and beating the previous ATH by 0.06%. (This could change slightly). >>>>

Congratulations.

<<<< My NAMO finished at 47. How about yours?? >>>
50.60

NAMO closed at 50

Steve, you did it again, NDX did hit 1410 and closed above. Keep it up and please keep us informed.

tarm = cash.
This tarm trade = -5.6% (Since July 6). (tarm changed alot during this so will have more frequent trades now on).
My YTD = -4.3%
NDX YTD = -3.7%.

Goint to cash.

I doubt 1408 - 1410 today, but being 200% long I will definitely welcome it. Now I have to go away for some time, but will be back in time for close.