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Thanks Iggy,
I was thinking about this correctly. There is a reason why I suspect Virtu is the player even beyond their recently made public Long Position. I’ll tell you about it at the Advaxis Shareholder celebration July, 2019.
Iggy,
Practically (and hypothetically) speaking...
How does the HFT plan get implemented? Would a large Financial Concern with a huge stake in Advaxis (for example Adage or someone like them) hire a HFT Company (like Virtu Financial, for example who is one of the biggest players in HFT) to execute the HFT Strategy? I hypothetically use Virtu since they showed up recently as taking a Long position, but it could be a different one. It really can be 1 party and a hired HFT company. This isn’t something happening where ALL the tutes are in on it which is how Bourbon interprets it. In fact, those Tute shares ARE the ones the Big Short/HFT planners want.
Donja
William Jay, it is further anecdotal evidence supporting Iggy’s theory of HFT Algorithms keeping the price in a tight band around $3.
Record Date is January 19th.
I’m beginning to just root for capitulation already. Just bring it. Let’s see a 4MM Share day where the stock dips to $1.87 midday (all stops are triggered, margin calls grab the remaining available shares), stock recovers in afternoon and closes at $2.37. Stock is back to $3 in a couple of trading days. News comes and we climb from there. Make it so Big Tony!
Interesting question Barnie. If one and only one good thing came from DOC’s RSU Smorgasbord Buffet Table for the Executives and Directors...it was the likely elimination of this possibility as an option. BOD can all personally profit substantially if the company stays public and the share price goes up. Also, Institutions want to make money too.
Yeah, that happens when a Long defends a position by management as being necessary when other Longs are against it...Happened to me with the r/s - people actually thought I was Dan. Many of the same people who would have driven Advaxis into bankruptcy by voting against the r/s are arguing against providing the company liquidity options.
This is what I was thinking Mypeke. Would be nice for the idea and reality of combo treatment with Lm-LLO to become broadly known.
Wow, the first poster is on agonism? I thought that was the experience held by long suffering longs ;)
I could have sworn there was a series of Preferred Shares approved 4 or 5 years ago for the Poison Pill.
Proxy Thoughts:
Every single Proxy shareholders have received since 2013 when an increase in authorized shares is put to a vote leads this board (Y! MB before this one) to:
1) Throw around Hostile Takeover rumors and the need to support the Poison Pill.
2) Suspect that authorization of shares will lead to an immediate equity raise for all of the newly authorized shares at way too low of a price to be acceptable to current shareholders
Neither has happened in the past.
Approve the Increase of Shares (companies need to raise capital, not be starved by the shareholders.)
If you don't trust management to do the right thing when the actual raise happens you should sell now.
My "logic" at the time was combined they have >14% of the equity...and Dan may be pissed off despite the Diamond-stubbed Golden Parachute he got.
That assumes the existence of a White Knight. What if DOC and Adage combine forces?
Edit: Must have gotten Dan to sign away any power to do that on exiting.
Venture capitalists and Hedge fund managers run in the same circles.
James, the “PRE”-14A always comes out early, no? That’s why it is the “Pre”.
Indeed it’s nice when they surface. Let’s make him a Mod.
Appel and Berman still around? Good grief.
BOMC,
I can't imagine MMs don't have inventory here unless they are consolidating all they have for big purchase orders or short covering and we haven't necessarily been seeing that. I think they simply may not be ready to let this run. May want to eliminate a lingering Short Position or build a bigger Long position. Time will tell.
There has been more than one successful test showing that the combination of Radiation and Axalimogene Filolisbac is worthy of further investigation.
Are you watching L2? Are the algos back on?
I see what you did there.
In my opinion the increase in the Short position is interesting but not perfect information to say what is happening. With the many dips below $3, there have been some big volume days. I think a lot of shares have become available shaken from institutions forced to sell below minimum share price requirements, and retail from margin calls and stops. It would be possible for a trading interest with control of things here to grab 2MM shares (even more) in a Long Account, and increase a short account by 750M shares for a net share increase of 1.25MM shares...all taken from recently available shares freed up below $3. The shares in the Long Account can be delivered to Close a Short Position at a later date. Just putting an alternative out there; not saying it is any more or less likely than the negative scenario crossing your mind.
Their recently purchased ADXS Long position (a/o 9/30/17) is big news for anyone who can see it.
You can pull up their current holdings. They do hold positions; don’t simply make money on transactions/spreads.
As you have said, there is only one thing that will cause a reversal (2 things if you count flipping the algos to make money on the long side...if only we had hard evidence of HFT outfits establishing Long positions...oh wait...) Anecdotally encouraging news won’t do much of anything.
The only conclusion that can be drawn from yesterday’s development is Safety. The 8/9 portion of the news doesn’t have any level of statistical significance. I guess they could PR the Safety conclusion but frankly Safety has already been “established.” No conclusion on efficacy can be drawn.
It was a Safety study. The CONCLUSION is as follows:
Preliminary data shows that ADXS11-001 can be safely administered with standard chemoradiation for anal cancer. Further studies of listeria-based immunotherapy with radiation are warranted.
So the comparison may be 70% DFS at 5 years (60 months) Vs 88% (8/9) at 42 months. Bigger issue than no direct control group comparison is small sample size. If 1 person does not make it to 60 months it is 78%
This...
“Background: Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the standard of care for squamous cell cancer of the anal canal (SCCA). Optimizing outcomes is likely to depend on a number of factors. Identification of factors portending treatment failure is critical. Methods: Data on patients with SCCA treated at the Cleveland Clinic were reviewed. Log-rank analysis was used to identify factors predictive of treatment failure, disease recurrence, and survival. Results: Between 9/83 and 3/07, 99 patients with SCCA were treated at our institution. Median age was 57 years. 63% were women, 98% had an ECOG score of 0–1, 53% were smokers, 29% had clinical node positive disease, and 50% had T3/4 tumors. With a median follow-up of 12.6 years, the median disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) have not been reached. 5-year DFS is 70% and 5-year OS is 72%. Significant treatment-related skin toxicity was reported in 62% of patients. 13 patients were hospitalized for neutropenic fever. Two developed TTP/HUS after mitomycin therapy. Persistent disease was more frequent in patients with N2/3 disease (vs. N0/1, p = .046). Higher ECOG performance status, interruption of radiation, T3/4 disease, N2/3 disease, and skin toxicity during treatment were each associated with significantly increased recurrence rates (all p <0.05). Patients with advanced T stage had a worse overall survival (p=0.02), while patients with BMI ≥ 25 had a better overall survival (p=0.04)”
Too bad our information is old (9/30/17). I wonder how many shares they have now. Likely their Long position has grown and undoubtedly their Net position has grown substantially.
The catalyst could be imminent.
Yep, I knew we were using two different systems. I think the “M” thing comes from Roman Numeral for 1,000. Businesses have been using that for a long time.
Outstanding shares = 40MM.
M = 1,000
Yeah, I’m sure they’re growing impatient.
Yeah, Vinnie Viola & Doug Cifu (2 key principals at Virtu) haven’t done much with the Florida Panthers but I wouldn’t bet against them on a recently taken Long position in Advaxis based on how this stock has been targeted by HFT.
Good background info on HFT...https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/092114/strategies-and-secrets-high-frequency-trading-hft-firms.asp
Notice latest Morningstar shows BOTH Virtu Financial (130M shares new position) AND Susquehanna Financial Group (added 106M shares to the 114M they previously held) with established or added-to positions as of 9/30/17.
In September the Advaxis price crashed from $7.20 to below $4 (but not all the way to its $2.71 bottom.) Two of the largest HFT players BOUGHT/added no later than September 30. They don’t need to buy at the very bottom, obviously. If they “expect” a reversal is coming they would want their position established well before that reversal and not want to be in at the very bottom. Good for optics.
True, we have some wealthy investors on this board. The employees for whom this plan was created are regular working people.
These programs usually exclude Senior Executives who receive Equity as a portion of Total comp. This was for the lab workers, administrative assistants, etc.
Looks like a Smoking Gun FBG. I think we know who the enabler was now. The fact that they just created a Long Position tells me they know the targeted HFT will stop or reverse.
At or near bottom, yes. Time for reversal.