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Post
Will
Therefore
Need more posts to get GZFX to the top of Ihub
Is that all?
I can see all of that happening except JF losing 75 pounds. Damn $1 would have been so nice.
The vibe is changing. I'm now seeing positive discussion on other boards regarding GZFX. We get some news and this will fly.
It is all about the "O" right wick
Thanks Xan, that is interesting, but there are none in dallas.
I was going to try it out, but I guess I will wait until they get here.
OT all good points, but since this is the GZFX board I left it at that.
The problem is until GZFX rises I cannot afford beer, explosives or hot chicks, but I will always have my free internet porn.
Wow this conversation is now above my head and is starting to sound like a techies wet dream. Back to what I understand... DVD rentals...game rentals...low pps....need more subs...okay I feel better.
And you sir are ahead of the curve. I have only one friend with a beamer and he got it as a deal his brother who sold them.
Okay Xan, I think after all these posts we are on the same page.
I find it interesting that you are using Red Box. I was wondering how Red Box worked. Sounds like it works well for you. How much is it to rent a movie from Red Box.
I agree that it is scary how new technology is coming on and our DVD service is late and behind the curve. That being said the quote from the Movie industry is that DVD rentals is the primary revenue generator for Movie Companys and will be so until 2008. I don't think the movie companys want to lose the grip on DVDs. Once you go to an online format, piracy is lot more easy (see music MP3). Therefore, I do believe we have to focus on DVDs with minimal focus on other forms of content until late 2007. I do not believe this company will be a leader in the new content delivery, but will have to try to follow the leaders and take a part in it.
I do agree that we could debate this for many months, and my concern is GZFX through 2007. I think Chip and JF should be focused on growing the DVD business and getting to breakeven and not spending a lot of time and money on some new technology.
So Xan have you given up hope on GZFX?
It sounds like the DVD rental company is dead to you.
Yea I will believe DVDs go away when I see it. I know VHS is gone, but that is because DVDs are here. I just don't see hard copy media going away for a while. MP3s have started the revolution in music, but CDs are still selling and my friends and I still burn CDs for each other.
You just cannot replace taking a DVD with you to a friends house to watch a movie. I know someday we will have a device that will have the movie on it, but I think it will be a long time before it is mainstream.
I think he was talking about replacing rentals. I remember you talking about watching movies on your computer and maybe this has replaced rentals for you, but of all my coworkers (approx 40 people), my immediate family (35 people) and my friends (approx 25 people) none have downloaded and watched a movie on their computer.
So I still believe in rentals. I just don't see large numbers of people watching movies on their computers. The only way I see it taking off is when your computer is hooked up to your TV. I believe it will be a while for everyone to transition to this setup.
Simple do you want to see my analysis?
If so PM me your email.
Tina I just sent my analysis to your email.
Mertto,
I did my analysis in excel and really was focused on profitability in the P&L if that is the case we will have positive cash flows from operating. That is key. The two factors are subscribers and expenses. Once we start to see a decrease in the expense per subscriber ratio things will turn positive real quick. If you can PM me your email and I can shoot my analysis over to you. If you cannot email me at radewitt28@hotmail.com and I will send my analysis to you and we can discuss.
Alot of investors here are more focused on thier investment than the company so their idea of breakeven is when we can stop diluting. I see it as all the same. Once we get to profitability and we are cash flowing we will not need to dilute and maybe can start the buy back program.
What the hell does, "We have no bottom " mean.
Go to a mirror, turn around, pull down your pants and bingo there is your bottom.
That was me. It is hard to read that analysis and come away with anything. The biggest factor is expenses. I'm really looking forward to the 2nd Q as I think we will have a really good picture to project from. Having last year in there really gives us no good info as it was a different company at that time.
I would really like to see some expenses decreasing. Especially consulting. I'm sure advertising will increase as well as cost of revenues. Like I said before I have prepared an analysis based solely on the 1st Q and the numbers don't look pretty. The main reason is expenses per subscriber are sky high. So the big question in Q2 is are we starting to leverage off a larger subscriber base and therefore expenses per subscriber decreases or are we still spending and the cost per subscriber increases.
The only way NFLX became profitable is once they got to a level where they stopped spending. I'm hoping we can get to that level in 2007. If we get AAFES, Target, and close to breakeven this year, 2007 will be a great year for GZFX.
Rocket talk will be in full effect.
That is funny. Welcome GZFX4ME.
I reviewed this when it was originally posted and I still don't believe that those numbers get us to breakeven this year. I think we will be in the hole too far to recover this year. If you look at the each quarter individually you might get there in the 4th Quarter. I believe 2007 will be a great year for GZFX and maybe profitable the whole year.
If that is the case wouldn't it be
.005+.02+.02+.02 = .065
I'd take that. I'd also take .0065 right about now.
Xan I completely agree. Also, many blamed JF for the blindsiding because they quoted him as saying "no new dilution".
Yea the O/S perception is going to be tough to shake. Many that were holding from the CC deal, sold due to the dilution. Many here believe we will be at 9B soon. I'm not sure how long it will take, but until the investors have confidence that very little dilution is ocurring I don't see us sustaining a very high PPS (above .02-.025) and that is with announcements and breakeven.
I know it was discussed that we went to 25B A/S to avoid buyout, but that is dragging us down. That and JF mentioning the 9B, which I'm with you is the max. That should have been a positive statement, but people don't have confidence in what he says right now and just believe we are going to 9B on the way to 25B.
I think it will more than double. AAFES will get us to maybe double, but Target IMO will get us to .02. Maybe not permantely, but at least a spike.
I would think breakeven may not have the pop like target but will get us a firm .01 or .015
Of course a lot of the depends on the O/S
I would say they have. I think the volume is now over 1B since they took it down.
OT FWIW I saw Ice Harvest in the theatres in December. Not sure when it released on DVD.
OT: I thought about bad news bears, but figured he meant Ice Harvest. Based on the fact that he added Ice Harvest to his queue, I think the point is mute.
Thanks wick keep buying for us longs.
Screw the day traders...lol
OT: It is worth renting. Some funny lines and some decent twists. Not great, but definitely worth watching.
Enjoy
OT: Simba said recently.
I pulled billy bob thorton up on IMDB and his most recent work that came to DVD is Ice Harvest. The only other option is if it is an old movie. If not Ice Harvest what do you think it is.
Ice Harvest.
That movie is worth renting
Wick,
Someone was making some noise about news today. I'm thinking we get news soon, but not sure about today. What are your thoughts?
Amazing service.
Sent two back yesterday, a new movie sent today.
Also, the movie sent was marked available and the high demand were skipped. So the labels by the movies in the queue are correct.
Now keep the pps moving up.
I completely agree with you. Inventory expenses is not the problem and only increases assets on the balance sheet.
Simple and Wick,
I agree that revenues will continue to go up.
I see some expenses maybe decreasing. Consulting for example as I think some of that related to the website upgrade.
I see expenses also increasing. More DCs, more overhead and more advertising.
Therefore, I just don't think we get there this year unless we see a significant increase in subs. I don't mean an increase to 40K subs. I mean a lot more than that.
Simple I see your point on careful analysis of the P&L, but I'm also talking about cash flow. Granted they will not need to dilute as much as they will start to generate cash flow, but either way you slice it they will not be generating enough cash flow to cover expenses until next year.
All this being said, I don't think the company is in trouble. I just think they need to take a closer look at reduction of expenses. Of course a big piece of that is SGA and we all know the largest piece of that.
The reason I did my analysis which I can send you both if you want was because I had it in mind that breakeven could happen in the 3rd or 4th quarter. After looking at it I think it is 1st or 2nd quarter of next year.
Now if JF signs a couple more big deals the sub count might shoot up, but expenses will increase as well. The sub count might be enough to overcome all this.
I'm looking forward to the 2nd quarter numbers to get a better understanding of the expenses. I do not expect a huge jump in revenues, but revs are not my concern at this point.
Let me know your thoughts..
Nope it never got that low. I believe the lowest it got was around .002
Wick,
Have you reviewed Mertto's study on break-even.
I go over these numbers many different ways and I don't see breakeven this year. The only way would be significant cost cutting, with a good sub increase and I don't see that happening.
I keep the cost of revenues at 44% and holding all other expenses constant I don't see breakeven this year. I think we are too far in the hole already, and cannot catch up unless we get 100K+ of subs. I do think GZFX has a high possiblity of going profitable in the 1st Q of 2007.