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The PR says they expect to issue 9.08M shares to repurchase the old notes and use $75M to repurchase stock. Perhaps the market thinks they will use the rest to buy another company and that makes some investors nervous? I still can't figure out what happened yesterday.
I don't really understand this but why do you think this is really good news? Was yesterday's trading just manipulation? To borrow money with a convertible to buy back shares seems crazy to me.
I think this is the trial that may help get SC efgartigimod approved sooner than 2023.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04735432
Yes, I noticed that too. Hopefully, it'll become clearer that we will have some new formulations approved in 2022 and 2023 rather than 2025 and that will be the time to sell the company.
Any news of analyst upgrades anybody can find?
I listened to the call but I guess I missed that comment. I will read the call transcript later. I don't think 4-5% percent is low but I'm not sure. In any case, that's what they've been able to negotiate and I doubt that will change.
"Halozyme is projecting total revenue of $1bn by 2027 based on their experience so far."
I believe they are projecting $1B in royalties not revenue and the question is, can we get from $32M today to an average of $250M per quarter in 2027? And what happens after that? Will revenues come down significantly as the author of the article believes? Time will tell. Helen said they don't expect that to happen but my impression is the market is not so sure yet.
I haven't researched the pipeline enough to determine if Halo may have another Enhanze product with benefits even remotely as compelling as Darzalex. Also, as Helen explained on this call and the previous one, the next products will probably be approved in the 2023 to 2025 range so we really need Darzalex and Phesgo to perform well until then. Any competitors that take market share from them will hurt us. My guess is Darzalex is generating at least 60% of royalties for Halo now. Hopefully, Phesgo will do well too.
There is potential for Halo's future to be very bright. There is a decent chance that SC Efgartigimod may get approved earlier than 2023 and if we get a couple of new deals soon, more phase 3 trials begin, etc., investors will keep buying.
I hope you're right but I'm afraid Halo will need to exceed estimates every quarter, sign new deals and make very strong progress in their phase 3 trials for the stock to get to $70 by EOY 2021.
If they sell the company in the next six months, $70 seems like a pretty fair price.
As far as I can tell, these were not planned sales so they are a little more significant. I was hoping Kenneth Kelley would not sell since he bought at $14 in March. Ideally, you want to see insiders keep on buying. On the other hand, Kelley only sold a portion of what he bought in March and essentially just recouped his investment.
When you take into account that two of our largest shareholders -- Artisan (-7%) and Bellevue (-18%) -- also trimmed their positions in the last quarter, imho this activity is moderately bearish, not enough to make me want to sell but enough to curb my enthusiasm about Halo's upside potential in the short term.
It's possible a large company may be a little less eager to sign new deals but I'm not sure that affects Halo's current value.
I think this was another piece of good news for Halo today since I'm assuming the PR is referring to the Enhanze formulation of efgartigimod.
"argenx expects to redeem the PRV for a future marketing application for its FcRn antagonist efgartigimod. It will not be used for the BLA filing of intravenous efgartigimod in generalized myasthenia gravis, which is on track to be submitted in 2020."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argenx-enters-agreement-acquire-priority-060000295.html
Agreed. I'm holding too.
I have not read the paper (see abstract below) but, if the authors are correct, I suppose a master trader could try and sell some calls here. I'm not a trader so I won't try.
"Abstract We examine stock price movements,around the announcement,and implementation,of changes in the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 indices. For both promotions to and demotions from the indices, we find significant movements in the price of stocks facing a status change on both on the trading day following the announcement,and the trading day leading up to the implementation. The stock price change is positive for promotions and negative for demotions. Although part of this price movement,is retraced in the trading days after the implementation of the change, about half to three-quarters of the movement,is permanent. 1. Introduction. The last thirty years have seen the rise of equity index investing, driven primarily by a"
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228384346_Stock_Price_Effects_of_Changes_in_the_SP_MidCap_400_and_the_SP_SmallCap_600_Indices
Over 2M share have already traded. It feels like institutions are piling into Halo, though we may not know until mid January unless Artisan is adding or some of them cross the 10% ownership, which of course would be great.
Good luck!
I did. Helen was very upbeat, almost euphoric. Lots of congratulations from the analysts who seemed to be impressed with the results and, finally, the revised guidance.I feel Halo is going to beat estimates next quarter as well and it's reassuring that the 3 phase 3 trials starts before the end of the year were confirmed. I would be surprised if we didn't get any upgrades in the next few days.
"Inpressive response rate" and "exciting data." Amivantamab may become a big drug, though the SC version is obviously several years away. It could make Janssen more interested in buying Halo.
https://www.docwirenews.com/hematology-oncology/amivantamab-plus-lazertinib-combo-show-promising-results-at-esmo-2020/
Yes, a week later than I expected but it certainly looks like it's happening. Time will tell if this is just analysts raising their estimates or something else.
Sometimes good things come to those who wait. It's been a long journey with Halo for me, and I think even longer for you!
You're welcome.
"Solid uptake" is actually what they wrote in their earnings presentation:
"DARZALEX increase driven by continued strong market growth and share gains in the U.S. and EU and solid uptake of the subcutaneous formulation that was approved in Q2"
https://johnsonandjohnson.gcs-web.com/static-files/12c55ace-3ff4-4f25-b3b8-a7b20aafa54a
Also, I read a report on GMAB from Morgan Stanley where they say they model Darzalex royalties contributing about $20/shr and they assume a long-term 80/20 SubQ/IV sales mix. I sure hope they're right.
They described it as "a very successful launch" and I believe they said they are seeing solid uptake, so I guess they were a little too vague to trigger a breakout. Analysts did not ask any questions about Darzalex (several were about the JNJ covid vaccine trial pause).
Genmab executives may be more forthcoming on their next earning call and I would think there will be specific questions about Darzalex FasPro.
Darzalex sales were strong ($1.099B v Cons $1.025B) and it seems likely they will reach at least $5B in 2021. If conversion is 50% , Halo's royalties should be $100M to $125M (4% to 5%). The market is not yet confident that will happen. Time will tell. Because of fierce competition in the multiple myeloma space, the other big question is, what will Darzalex peak sales be and how quickly will they drop when better drugs come on the market, including potentially one JNJ is developing.
If Opdivo gets approved for this indication it is a big deal and good news for Halo, though it'll probably take at least another couple of years for SC Opdivo to be approved and I believe Opdivo infusions are between 30 and 60 minutes so the Enhanze formulation benefits won't be as dramatic as with Darzalex FasPro or even Phesgo.
Stock crossed the 50-day moving average this morning and is hopefully getting ready to break out on 10/13 when JNJ will presumably update investors on Darzalex FasPro. Best case scenario imo would be to hear JNJ's executives not just say "we are pleased with the uptake so far" but that conversion is already at 20% and they expect it to eventually get to 80%. If that happens, my guess is the stock will get to $40, maybe even $50 by the end of the year.
Here's another interesting article on the JNJ/GMAB dispute, Darzalex patents, etc. JNJ's next earnings call is on 10/13. I hope they'll provide more information on Darzalex FasPro's uptake.
"The drug's next stage of growth is hitched to Darzalex Faspro,..."
"Meanwhile, as competition to intravenous Darzalex mounts from the likes of Sanofi and its rival CD38-inhibitor Sarclisa, J&J has hustled to rack up more indications for Faspro and convert existing Darzalex patients to the subcutaneous option."
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/genmab-takes-j-j-to-arbitration-court-over-subq-darzalex-royalties
Do you think we have a gap from the end of June that should be filled?
It's hard to say. It's an interesting dispute and I think the first time Halo is caught in the middle of this type of situation. Hopefully, it will not slow sales down. I suppose if the arbitrator decides that Janssen needs to stop reducing its royalty payments to Genmab, Janssen may feel a bit less inclined to pushing Darzalex FasPro over the infusion formulation.
I think it will be better for Halo shareholders if Janssen ends up winning the dispute, though I haven't given it a lot of thought. I wish they were a happy couple but I am not too concerned for now.
Jp Morgan may be underweight the biotech sector and/or they see good potential if more Enhanze collaborations are approved and new deals are signed but they feel the stock is fairly valued right now. They will definitely raise their PT if royalty revenue accelerates above expectations, phase 3 trials begin, and a large new deal is announced.
Their analyst obviously knows that Herceptin and Mabthera have been huge blockbuster drugs and yet royalties have been disappointing. Darzalex Faspro and Phesgo will do better but there’s concern that doctors and hospitals are not financially incentivized to use them. Also, it’s hard to guess how soon new Enhanze drugs will be approved and new deals will be signed.
I am bullish but I would not say that there is little risk here and that buying the stock now is a no-brainer.
Good call this morning with Helen and Charles Duncan at Cantor, one of the most bullish analysts on Halo.
Duncan said he thinks Helen's $1B in royalties by 2027 is conservative! I sure hope he is right but I kind of doubt it.
In any case, I am encouraged by the fact that Helen finally said the royalty revenue growth will turn positive in Q4.
Thanks. I am not loving the stock action, especially today with the XBI up 6%.
JPMorgan begins coverage on HALO with an overweight rating. I could not find their PT. I'd love to read their report if anybody has access.
RTOR and Project Orbis can make this happen within just a few months. Check out SGEN's Tucatinib for reference.
And yet, according to Helen, it takes at least another six months for payer approval, formulary access, etc. and therefore for Halo to begin to see any significant revenues. Darzalex FasPro was approved on May 1 and Halo has not revised revenue guidance for 2020.
I believe he sold more than 50%, though I suppose he may eventually get more options.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1159036/000117911020009018/xslF345X03/edgar.xml
Yes, it could be a lot of things. But since I'm not immune to irrational exuberance and wishful thinking, I will try and explore the bear case (and the bull case) for Halo soon.
I am a little more concerned about the other sales, especially FMR and James Daly. Time will tell.
Most 13F flings are out. Although Artisan continued to add shares, Randal Kirk cut his holdings in Halo to half, Bellevue and FMR sold quite a few shares and so did James Daley a couple of days ago.
I wonder if today's weakness is related to this.
It looks like you may be right and so far today we have a rally on strong volume.
And just speculating for fun, I am sticking to the $40 projection by the end of the year I made in May.
maumar Member Level Wednesday, 05/13/20 11:50:48 AM
Re: Fred Kadiddlehopper post# 5932 0
Post # of 5996
All of the above, plus a new deal, 3 phase 3 trial starts, SC Perjeta/Herceptin approval by October, hopefully sooner, and we may see $40 by the end of the year. I think many investors (and analysts) still need to be reassured that this time (with Darzalex and perjeta/herceptin) it will be different.
I am still amazed that our royalties from huge blockbusters like Herceptin and Mabthera peaked at only $20.9M in Q1 18 and came down to $15.8M in Q2 20. I don't know if we will get to $250M per quarter by 2027 but I do think that this time it will be different and I am encouraged by the fact that Helen confirmed the 3 new phase 3 trials in 2020.
https://www.loncarblog.com/halozyme-royalty-revenue
"With competition to Johnson & Johnson's intravenous Darzalex mounting, the drugmaker is hustling to convert patients to its subcutaneous version of the drug, Darzalex Faspro. Now, a triumph in the clinic has armed the drugmaker with data that should convince regulators to clear Faspro in another indication—widening its edge over a Sanofi rival.
In a phase 3 trial of relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients who had failed on two prior treatments, FasPro, in combination with Celgene's Pomalyst and the steroid dexamethasone, beat out a Pomalyst-dexamethasone (Pd) pairing at staving off cancer progression in adults, partner Genmab said."
https://www.fiercepharma.com/drug-delivery/johnson-johnson-s-eyes-faspro-label-boost-myeloma-study-win?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWmpNNVpUTmpaall5TldGaSIsInQiOiJSajluZm9GYnUzMDhRZFRvd0FveUprMHhBSXJoVXdJdnNudlczWDdGZ0dDZmF0T2dSOHlad2V3d0Z4XC9CRThnSHVtSU5pY01MMzhJQ1hYQ09HbEF2bzZHOWVOdEdcLzVIS1A5ZktHVkpzU3hLWUt3NFgzUFwvMm91cVwvVXVMN0gwVUJhOTVpckc3ZUtFZ2JOMmI3U3drMFNRPT0ifQ%3D%3D&mrkid=70600683
Thank you!
Do any of your subscribe to services that monitor insider activity? I know that Dew uses Edgar Pro but they now charge $1,599 per year and I'm looking for a cheaper alternative. Thank you in advance for any suggestions.
I was just about to say that there must have been an upgrade but I could not find it. Thanks.
Pretty powerful rally on good volume. 2021 July 17 $24 calls and 1012 July 17 $28 calls traded this morning suggests there may be institutions accumulating via options, though the $28 calls could be a hedging position. JNJ earnings call on July 16 (I believe) could push the stock higher and then even higher if Helen revises revenue guidance. I don't see any good reasons why we shouldn't get any royalties from Darzalex FasPro and perhaps even Phesgo in 2020. And royalties should at least double in 2021.
If 3 new phase 3 trials are confirmed and a new deal is announced soon, how high can we go?
“As part of the FDA’s ongoing commitment to address the novel coronavirus pandemic, we continue to keep a strong focus on patients with cancer who constitute a vulnerable population at risk of contracting the disease,” Pazdur added. “At this critical time, we continue to expedite oncology product development. This application was approved about 4 months ahead of the FDA goal date.”
...
Notably, the newly approved combination allows for administration by a healthcare professional in either a treatment center or at home.
https://www.onclive.com/view/fda-approves-fixed-dose-pertuzumab-trastuzumab-combo-in-her2-breast-cancer?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=6-29-20_OncLiveE_Breaking%20News&utm_content=6-29-20_OncLiveE_Breaking%20News+CID_214324fef7080d3d2db7ae0701626b6c&utm_source=CM%20ONCLIVE&utm_term=READ%20MORE
"The BLA is based on results from the phase III FeDeriCa study, which illustrated non-inferior levels of pertuzumab in the blood and comparable efficacy and safety to standard IV infusions of pertuzumab plus trastuzumab and chemotherapy. The FDA set a PDUFA date for October 18, 2020. "
Today's early approval suggests FDA is eager for doctors to prescribe this formulation instead of the standard IV infusion.