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I WILL WALLPAPER MY BATHROOM WITH PPHM STOCK
certificates before I sell my holdings. Nobody is going separate me from the MICROSOFT of biotech. Nobody.
The rest of you can go to SELL.
Best,
Joe
RETAIL - GET OUT
Doldrums, doldrums, doldrums....all part of the game.
And based on the sentiments expressed here on the Board, it's really working like a charm.
What potential investor in PPHM would be further interested after reading the tripe posted here every day?
In short, RETAIL - GET OUT
Best,
Joe
Great analysis, CP, I mentioned in a previous post that
it "nearly" made stat sig, but I was referring to the 3 mg/kg dose, which came in at p =0.07.
As for the pooled data, yes, it clearly made stat sig, which is fantastic for a P2 profile, but ignored by the naysayers on the board.
Hazard ratios are really of no value in the study, given that all arms actually received some measure of Bavi.
Best,
Joe
Boeing "booked out" with demand until 2020
Wyse expressed confidence in the 737 program, pointing out that the 3,680-plane backlog of the not-yet-airborne 737 Max aircraft and the current 737 “next generation” aircraft will keep the assembly lines running for seven years even without new orders. “Even with this next generation, we’re continuing to see more demand than we have positions for, all the way out to 2020.
“Is there a bubble? We’re certainly not seeing one in the single-aisle market; as far out as we can see, we see more demand than there is production capability.” Here was the question of whether airlines are overordering, creating a bubble in the global aircraft order book, a topic that was the subject of one panel at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance annual convention in Lynnwood this week. Confidence in further growth is so strong at Renton that Wyse is leading the conversion of the site to lift production again, to 47 monthly in 2017, and possibly to 52 after that.
500 aircraft per year out to 2020.
Don't worry, Hypi. Boeing has its finger on the pulse of the economy infinitely better than we do.
And they look mighty busy, my friend.
Don't go to the canned food and ammo quite yet.
You'll get your chance with Bavi alright.
Just sit tight.
Go to Boeing's website if you like.
Boeing production full out to 2020
Best,
Joe
Hypi, I enjoy your comments, but permabears have been calling
for a crash since 2010. They've also missed the biggest bull market since the dot.com days by doing so.
Sorry, but there's still too much social agenda to be advanced before the crash.
Boeing doesn't build 500 planes if we're going to "canned food and ammo" tomorrow. They know more about which way the wind is blowing than you or I do.
If you're the next Gerard Celente, just liquidate your holdings and buy gold, get a can opener, and stock 7.62 ammo for your AK.
Otherwise, sit tight and let the world turn.
best,
Joe
Hazard ratios differ from relative risks in that the latter are cumulative over an entire study, using a defined endpoint, while the former represent instantaneous risk over the study time period, or some subset thereof. Hazard ratios suffer somewhat less from selection bias with respect to the endpoints chosen, and can indicate risks that happen before the endpoint.
See what I mean - if all three arms got "some" Bavi or "some" placebo at an undetermined point in the study, the determination of instantaneous risk of an event is a blown metric.
WHO got Bavi, HOW MANY placebo patients got Bavi, HOW MANY 1 mg/kg patients got placebo, and AT WHAT TIME IN THE STUDY did they mistakenly receive their Bavi or placebo?
As I said. BLOWN metric.
best,
Joe
Because hazard ratios are not the same as relative risk ratios
You know that. Besides, the study is not powered to give definitive results. However, it IS consistent with the breast studies, and the pre-clinical anti-XYZ studies.
It is the consistency of the results that has everyone excited.
Picking apart P2 stats doesn't make sense. P2 studies are about safety and signal.
Save your analysis for P3! Plenty of power there!
Good luck,
Joe
How can you analyze hazard ratios when ALL three arms received
Bavi?
You can't.
They're all mixed up!
Jq, do you see how the pooled data p-values are superior to your
1 mg/kg arm? If the 3mg/kg + doce arm is "worse" than the 1
mg/kg + doce arm as you say, then how did the p-values of the
pooled data improve over both arms? Same goes for PFS. The
pooled data have better PFS values than any other group.
The "inferior" 3 mg/kg + doci arm should have brought down the p-
values and PFS of the 1 mg/kg + doci group, but it didn't. Why?
EASY. MORE POWER.
Also, please note the ORR superiority of the Bavi 3 mg/kg arm +
doce which showed superior p-values to all other combinations and
pooled data.
As for the hazard ratios, these are, as you know, analyses of
time survived to an event. When the time in the 3 arms (all
of which received some measure of Bavi, thanks to the
mislabeling) is so very close together i.e. 11.1, 12.1,
13.1 months, the hazard ratio data don't serve you well because
all of the events are clumped together (which makes perfect
sense in nasty second-line non-small cell.)
Finally, of course, as you know, P2's are not usually powered to
show stat-sig, but this one came mighty close.
Best,
Joe
Bio, yeah, you've got a point
I should just stick to anti-XYZ and keep things simple, like CP.
LOL.
Thanks.
best,
Joe
ECG, nice summary
I've mentioned before as well:
If the presently enrolling Bavi + Yervoy (upstream/downstream)combination beats the BMS Yervoy + anti CTLA-4 combo done last year (downstream/downstream), in the clinic, with live bodies, then all hell could break loose with PPHM.
The preclinical Bavi + Yervoy results were outstanding. If the clinical results are similar, the PPS won't be $1.77.
More like $17.77
Best,
Joe
The MOA has only fairly recently been elucidated
Would you sell a $5 billion dollar piece of real estate for $250 million?
No, I don't think you would.
Put it on a human scale: You own a home worth $5 million dollars. Would you sell it for $250,000?
No, I don't think you would.
You would WAIT for an offer that more accurately reflects the value of your "property."
Thus, "no deal."
Recheck the definition of a "penny stock"
since you're in such a "thankful" mood.
325 M market cap? Check.
Thousands of scientific papers backing the MOA? Check.
Major presentations at the highest caliber oncology conferences? Check.
KOL's from the best oncology institutes? Check.
Yeah, OK, it's a "penny stock."
LOL.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Best,
Joe
Show me a "penny stock" with 325M market cap
and thousands of scientific papers backing its MOA.
You're too funny.
As for stock market advice, "chasing green shoots" is the biggest error most investors make.
Apparently, you've never heard of it.
Good luck.
This "penny stock" has YOUR attention on a Sunday
LOL
Best,
Joe
No partnership? Not shocked AT ALL
Doldrums are part of the game, my friend.
When you say, "I'm shocked..." what you're really saying is that you're upset you're not a millionaire yet.
But that's not the way it works. That's not the way the stock market ever works.
It's really more like, "I'm frustrated as hell with this stock, I've made a little money with it, but I'm shocked it hasn't been the grand slam I thought it would be and made me a millionaire so I can go party in Vegas, geez, I'm just gonna sell now, and chase other green shoots."
Wall Street pros make serious coin off millions of retail holders who think JUST LIKE THAT.
And so many on this Board just want you to sell, sell, sell. They tick off every penny decline and don't let you forget it.
Ha.
What the biggest delusion in America? GET. RICH. QUICK.
Yeah, yeah, I'm sure I'll hear from all the tortured souls on the Board who have held for up-teen gazillion years and think in some bizarre way that qualifies them to pontificate as wizened experts.
(OK, you missed the huge bull run from 2009-2014...do you really want to advertise that?)
Grow up.
And WAIT, not for 17 years, (which seem the AVERAGE around here, suspiciously bogus as it may be), but WAIT.
Be patient.
Joe
Up-down versus Down-Down
That's what we're looking at, boys.
Down-Down:
BMS 2013 study of Yervoy (downstream player) + anti-CTLA4 (downstream player) presented at 2013 ASCO showed lots of side effects and a 40% response rate of 80% tumor reduction (impressive, but with a price)
Up-Down:
Bavi (upstream player) + anti-PD1(downstream player), preclinically, showed very interesting GLOBAL changes: TAM repolarization ("re-magnetized"), decreases in MDSCs, better antigen presentation, more IL-2, more interferon gamma
So what's bottom line?
LET'S PARTY.
Dia, good point; Yervoy + anti-CTLA4 had 53% grade 3-4 side effects in last year's BMS study
...and only 40% of the concurrent recipients had the 80% tumor reduction at 12 weeks.
In other words, "downstream-downstream" therapy is FAR from the dominant position in immmuno-therapy at this time.
With Bavi-Yervoy, we'll get a real good look at "upstream-downstream" therapy for melanoma.
Here's "the beef" from the pre-clinical study of Bavi and anti-PD1, and man, it looks good:
After Bavi/Yervoy, all hell breaks loose
Not sure if it has sunk in around here yet. Yervoy is an FDA-approved Mab for melanoma.
If Bavi shows a synergistic response to melanoma with Yervoy, better than with Yervoy alone, now what the H.E.L.L. is BMS gonna do when this synergy comes out clear as day?
What are the Big Kahunas going to do when their BILLION dollar anti-XYZ babies don't work as well without Bavi??
I contend that it remains a distinct possibility that ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE.
best,
Joe
WE'RE IN THE CLINIC, PEOPLE!
Bavi dancing with the big boys
Bavi + Yervoy = outstanding news, because now we have an awesome "proof-of-concept" scenario in the clinic involving real people with a very dangerous cancer i.e. receiving both upstream and downstream reversal of immune suppression.
Many eyes will be on this study, ESPECIALLY those of the big boys.
Before it was all pre-clinical. Now, ALREADY, we're CLINICAL, people, with combo upstream-downstream counterattack.
We're really moving lightning fast here - pre-clinical studies not at all long ago, and now we're in the clinic!
I like how the group of 16 is getting soaked in Bavi even before the combo starts.
Ask yourself this question: if YOU had melanoma right now, which group would you like to be in -
Best,
Joe
Instant gratification takes too long
for some, Corp. LOL
Best,
Joe
Better 2 years early, than one day late
That's my investment strategy with PPHM in one line.
Anytime, brothers, anytime....
BIG forces at work right now in the industry.
...and it's all about CONTROL of the gazillion dollar cancer industry.
Now ask yourself who has the KEY upstream checkpoint for immuno-oncology....
Big boys are merging...techtonic shifts in play
Novartis going after Astra...whoa. Selling off its animal-medical business to Eli Lilly to be a stakeholder at the immuno-oncology table.
Whoa.
Techtonic shifts, brothers.
Watch these coming mergers VERY carefully. They're all pointing toward ONCOLOGY.
And the cell membrane always was, is, and will be where the action is.
Enter Bavi.
I doubt many here realize what they're holding.
For every billion offered on a Bavi partnership or buyout, we're talking a net cash spike of $6 pps. Then factor your multipliers.
Merck (my personal favorite), Celgene, Abbvie (don't count them out), BMS, Novartis et. al. are vicious wolves salivating over Bavi - all behind the scenes.
$8-9-10 billion is POCKET change for SOC on multiple solid cancer indications. That's $48, $54, or $60 buck per share, WITHOUT forward projections on earnings.
85 million baby boomers are now 50- 68 years old.
Do ya think oncology is gonna be growth market.....DUH.
Schwarzenegger had it right on Bavi: "I'LL BE BACK - "
Nice posts, Mass -
It's the potential breadth and width of the Bavi platform across so many solid cancer indications that drives your numbers.
You will get a lot of "pooh-poohing" from many a poster here for your numbers, but you are right: if Bavi works as many of us have concluded by reading the journals, trials, and data, then the numbers really are not at all unreasonable.
Thanks for your thinking.
Best,
Joe
Great Friday, post! What a way to start -
Big Pharma has huge pockets, and they WILL have to pay a pretty
penny for Bavi certainly.
But they're cold-blooded. They'll do what they have to in order to lock up future markets.
I like your point about psychological shock and surprise. Big Pharma understands small-cap "boutique" enterprises with a cute "feather" drug that fits into their cap, but Bavi is different.
Bavi isn't a feather-in-the-cap. Bavi isn't a trophy. Bavi potentiates other Big Pharma drugs that they've already spent billions on.
That's the problem. Bavi plays perfectly into Big Pharma's tough-as-nails slit-your-throat mentality, because it's NOT threatening, doesn't make their billion-dollar anti-XYZ babies worthless...in fact, it makes them BETTER.
Hold tight. A buyout bigger than Pharmhasset puts PPHM north of $100/share.
Doldrums and doldrums will wear out many investors.
But it can all change in one instant.
Best,
Joe
That's OK, EBS, just as long as it isn't
...Patrick Crutcher. LOL
Best,
Joe
CP, great science makes for patient investors
I forget who said it yesterday, but "if you like the story, and the data and trials continue to support that story, JUST HOLD TIGHT."
"Bavi in a nutshell."
that's why we're all here: WE LIKE THE STORY.
Thanks for the great post.
Best,
Joe
Geo, you misunderstood - I have NO PROBLEM with the poison pill
In fact, I think it's critical to protect the IP.
I was just quoting Ysfalconer who stated his objection with the poison pill as limiting the PPS.
So I challenged him to sell off his position entirely since he feels so "ripped off." LOL
Of course he won't sell, anyway.
Best,
Joe
Wook, I don't know what more they want from the science
at this point. Sunstar lays it all out, and yet the "whine-and-cheese" crowd here just gnashes along, wailing about the BOD, the price action, or statements like this:
"My gosh, we dropped a penny today, while the whole market was up 500%..., boy this POS stock sure s*cks, I think I'll spend the rest of my day telling everyone what I think."
On and on and on... I do wonder what their motivation is.
Best,
Joe
Sunstar - great word - "disruptive" for BPs
Outstanding post, and a very nice antidote to the "whine-
and-cheese" crowd that wails and gnashes their teeth here on slow
trading days.
The data keep accumulating. A critical mass of compelling trials
continues to build. Very nice summary.
The immune system is the KEY to cancer: always has been, always
will be. The rotten progress modern medicine has had against cancer for the past 40 years (despite all the misleading, statistically-twisted horn-blowing) is a result of its DENIAL of the immune system's role.
Finally, Big Pharma sees dollar signs in the paradigm shift from the "cut-poison-burn" blast on cancer (that doesn't work and fries the patient to a crisp)... to a dynamic, non-toxic immune-stimulating approach. (And Bavi is the most non-toxic of them all!)
We remain in the cat-bird seat, despite the impatient "whine-and-cheese" crowd, that refuses to accept that doldrums and doldrums are part of the game. To wear them out, and watch them fade away, right before it all changes in an instant.
Best,
Joe
From the website: Head of Regulatory Affairs Dr. Garnick has over 30 years of experience in drug and biologic pharmaceutical development. He was formerly the Senior Vice President of Regulatory, Quality and Compliance at Genentech, Inc. Dr. Garnick spent 24 years at Genentech helping to found the biotechnology industry. While at Genentech Dr. Garnick was responsible for the approval of over 17 drugs, biologics and medical devices. He has extensive experience in analytical methodology, process validation, the regulatory review process both in the US and Europe and in Risk assessments. He has authored numerous scientific papers and has given numerous keynote presentations to the pharmaceutical Industry.
Sure doesn't sound "consultant" to me...
And it's a MESSAGE Board...nothing more
Some are hanging on too tight around here.
GLTAL!
Joe
RETAIL GET OUT - I'll wallpaper my bathroom
with PPHM stock certificates before I sell...LOL
Go $1.80s - time to add again
All these threads will look quite "quaint" when the "SUN RISES..."
or quite possibly much sooner - when the Big Boys say, "Enough!!"
Best,
Joe
Keep up the great work, Bid - NYAS awesome EOM
CP, these people need to get a life
Tempest in a teapot...
Chaos at the Concierge's desk...
Call it what you want...
There's been enough HOT AIR on this board already to launch a
thousand balloons.
Science is stronger than EVER.
The rest is debris.
Best,
Joe
If you don't trust what management is doing
just hit the sell button and move on.
Best quote out there.
Give it a rest already.
Sell and move on. Lots of other "hot stocks" and "green shoots" for you to "cash" in.
Dive in.
Best,
Joe
"Moon shot" big players know Bavi well
Don't think they don't - they KNOW Bavi is the big upstream player, and is critical for their "downstream" billion-dollar babies' success.
I always thought it would be Merck, but if J&J, and MD Anderson want their "moonshot," they're gonna need Bavi to prep the rocket for the "downstream" attack.
Best,
Joe
BDU, I AM posting from the available info
You've got to admit most of the BOD bad-mouthing really comes across as girlie-man stuff. People with very little business experience, and who have NO CLUE about how this stuff gets negotiated (nor do I, I readily admit, but I don't weep over my keyboard about management either).
Bottom line: NOBODY KNOWS SQUAT ABOUT MANAGEMENT AND THEIR PLANS FOR PARTNERSHIP NOR THE OFFERS THEY HAVE RECEIVED, IF ANY.
I agree with you completely that women must be posing as men on this Board. Too many estrogen-saturated posts and whining.
I'm sorry you've been holding for 15 years. If you should be mad at anyone, it should be yourself. (Missing the 2011-2013 runup on so many solid stocks out there...ouch!)
Is this YMB or I-hub? Is there a difference anymore?
GLTAL!
Best,
Joe
Too much Board garbage - science better than ever
CP this, CP that... BOD this, BOD that...give it a break already.
Focus on the forward march of BAVI: more positive results with anti-PD1, anti-CTLA-4, more MDSC annihilation, more Th1 shift, more interferon-gamma, more pro-cell-mediated immunity cytokines, adaptive immunity to "remember" the tumor...
More synergy with the billion-dollar downstream BP big boys.
The schedule will unfold as to THEIR liking, not from some message board.
It will happen in due time. As entdoc says, the reassuring science is ALL THERE for careful investors who care to look.
The rest is debris.
GLTAL!
Best,
Joe