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Thanks. I have been a little bearish here because of the long wait and have been concentrating on other stocks. Now I think it is time. I expect the catalyst here will be the judge's denial of Googles Jmol request. That will send some shorts to the sidelines, but not all. The stock will rise from there. Unlike what happened to VHC today , Vringo has a jury verdict and it is extremely unlikely that the judge would not affirm it. He may even add damages like he did in the Activision case.
I quote from one of my previous posts
Quote:
It seems likely that should Judge Jackson decide to amend the past damages he will also award supplemental damages as one without the other would seem inconsistent. Should the Judge rule in this manner the supplemental award would be roughly $13M.
From EDVA's commentary. Judge Jackson did just that in the Activision Verizon trial he awarded supplemental damages....
Ok let's talk about shorts. People assume that shorts are smart money and somehow they know something that the market as a whole does not know. The S/A writer writes his piece from that perspective.
Look at the title
Have to agree with you here. He may or may not be correct in his opinion . We will find out
Could also be mm's seeing buying weakness from VHC confusion/sympathy and taking advantage of that by taking out stops and gathering shares...
OT VHC getting absolutely destroyed down 27% the verdict went against them Vringo down in sympathy
OK have not tried in a few weeks ...thanks
One other anecdotal data is Cliff. I have not been able to reach him for months and I have never had this issue. Companies do go very quiet when they are in discussions I have seen this behavior before. There may be other reasons however I concede that. Yesterday I was watching BBRY and it started twitching on my screen , no news but the volume told me something, bought and sold it for a nice return. My point is that Vrng is not twitching yet , there will be a volume surge when there really is news watch for it.
The price action on VRNG is extremely bullish right now and I have been following this for over a year .
I agree with you on that comment , nonsense..
No one can predict a settlement or what the actual outcome will be in terms of timing. However people are making comments on the state of the markets based on empirical evidence and anecdotal. In time we will see who is right. Similarly one can make assumptions about what will happen here based on trading patterns, most probable expectation for JJ's rulings and what is Google's best exit with an eye to determine risk. All these variables and others can be put it into the mix and one can formulate an opinion. I tend to favor a settlement option based on this criteria and also experience in tracking markets for more than 25 years
Intuitively I expect a resolution very shortly markets always preceed news and this is telling you we are very very close...
What do you consider long-term 1 -2 years, longer ?
This will be $5 - $10 in a year for many reasons. This is the description on the World's biggest free online Poker game
"Join the world’s largest, funniest, free online Poker game. #1 on Facebook, iPhone, iPad, and Android! Play Zynga Poker LIVE against more than 6 million daily users. More than 60 million hands are won daily, so step up to a table and get into a social game for your chance to win.
Choose from casual Texas Hold ’Em games or tough Tournament play like Power, Shootout, Sit N Go, or Weekly. Play free with friends or with anyone you meet from around the world. Ante up and deal fun with the largest free online poker game."
Yes I agree should be relatively stress free to $4.50 - $4.75 the $5 area is key for big players to come back here, then we go way up...
Now that its broken the previous pop around $3.70 , should go to $4.70 - $4.80, it will be important to get over $5 will bring in institutional money..
I agree read my response to whateva77... for the longer-term though I am bullish, just not right now....
Yes I agree, read this article for a good understanding of what we are dealing with here
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-dow-hits-an-all-time-high-translation-a-bubble-is-always-biggest-right-before-it-bursts
When you say this :
I agree , my only concern is I expect a correction here shortly.. not sure when but it's coming...I am talking about a market correction which will affect Zynga
I sold half my position on the move above 3.60 which I considered important, but it backed off from there on a very bullish day which I don't like. This company is not to keen on keeping investors in the loop as to what they are doing. Long-term it is going much higher, short-term choppy. Waiting to see another catalyst....
Interesting chart showing the increase in Google searches, it has gone parabolic, check this link:
http://www.themacrotrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Gtrends-Great-Rotation.jpg
Sorry
I have not been in this since I sold over $4.00 it seemed like it was a good level given no news, however in looking at the price action it has held so I am still assuming there is something behind the move, not sure when they are going to announce but I still expect to hear news.
Groupon is not a good example... Down 25 %
Are you surprised? There are three analysts that have a buy rating on Zynga and 16 holds 2 sells. They chose one of the 16 with a hold , how can he say anything positive if he has a hold opinion? PLus, showing that this quarter would be negative, which is true while doing no analysis on what impact these deals will have on Zynga's bottom line is not good journalism.
The conversation went exactly as they (CNBC) wanted it to go. It was not a surprise to me
Very nice and truer words could not be stated!
It's a big number but not that significant as a percentage of float and compared to daily volume, can be covered in one day
yes it is the only positive is that there will be violent moves hopefully up if rulings are in favour... I expect them to be ...
never mind wow they just can't let this thing move even a few pennies without wacking it.
Catching a bit of a bid here, anyone hear anything?
My prayers go out to you and your family JJ.
@Nolerman
I can't post privately, no subscription. Anyway to answer your questions. Very bullish, there should be a resolution soon. A couple of rulings will bring Google to the table. They do not want to revisit Laches and definitely do not want their books opened to determine the royalty for Vringo, so I expect a settlement. I take extreme pessimism and optimism as contrary indicators. What was the mood like in November and what happened, what is the mood now and what is the most reasonable outcome if you remove emotion which is hard but necessary to make an intelligent decision?
Your position seems very reasonable and there will be a resolution well before then.
Cheers
Hudson owned just 83,000 shares for the quarter ended 9/30 they sold them all last quarter
Iriquois Capital owns 2.1 million shares of Vringo. They increased their position last quarter
Thank you for the statistics. There are divergent numbers for the size of the on-line gaming market potential depending on the source. However I do agree that Zynga has a enormous potential here.
What I will say is that the model Zynga will adopt will be something between their current poker model and what poker-stars does, it will be a unique experience from my research
Cheers
The analyst in this story thinks Zynga could capture a 10% interest in a 1 -3 billion dollar mar, this translates into 100 -300 million dollars! Upgrades coming
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — In the movie “The Color of Money,” Paul Newman tells us why people gamble on everything from the Super Bowl to how long it will take for a traffic light to change.
As pool hustler Fast Eddie Felson, Newman laid it on the line: “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
Touchstone
Paul Newman, The Color of Money
That philosophy might also be behind recent heavy betting on Zynga Inc. ZNGA -0.57% , built on a hunch the online social gaming company is about to cash in on moves to legalize Internet-based gambling in Nevada and New Jersey.
On Wednesday alone, Zynga’s shares climbed almost 5%, to $3.52 a share, a day after New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie signed into a law a bill that lets Atlantic City casinos run Web sites that allow betting on games such as blackjack and poker.
New Jersey’s move came five days after Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval signed a similar bill legalizing interstate gambling online, which could take everyone a step closer to making Internet-based gambling, especially poker, accessible nationwide.
ZNGA 3.50, -0.02, -0.57%
20151050
MAMJJASON13F
And since Sandoval signed off on Nevada’s online gambling law, betting on Zynga has surged. The company’s stock is up more than 20% in less than a week.
For now Zynga, best known for its games “Farmville”, “Cityville” and “Zynga Poker,” can’t crank up the slot machines and take actual online bets in the U.S. [It is, however, set to launch so-called “real money” poker online in the UK via a partnership with Bwin.Party Digital Entertainment in the second quarter of the year]. But that isn’t stopping investors, or industry analysts, from betting Zynga will eventually see a payoff from the nascent market for legalized online gambling.
On Wednesday, Joseph Stauff of Susquehanna Financial Group said Zynga is “likely to attract strategic interest over the next year” as a U.S. online gambling asset. He points to the fact that the company already has about 15 million U.S.-based online poker players, many of whom could be converted into paying gamblers if the opportunity arises.
“We view significant value in its U.S.-based stable of players where scale is necessary,” Stauff said, in a research note. “And only Caesar’s and Zynga have ‘current’ databases of online players.”
Stauff also called that potential opportunity for Zynga “significant” because most casinos claim a “rake,” or percentage, of all the money put into poker pots of between 5% and 10%.
Of course, since gambling is the subject, the odds on Zynga being able to offer legalized online betting are not set in stone. The New Jersey law, for instance only allows bettors that are physically present in the Garden State to gamble online. And the law legalizes only the online gambling services of Atlantic City casinos.
Then again, the law signed by Gov. Sandoval sets up Nevada to enter agreements with other states to make online poker available, and it will charge companies a $500,000 licensing fee to offer gambling over the Internet.
And since anyone could at least theoretically pony up the cash for such a license, analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities said the potential for many players to get into the market may hinder Zynga’s ability to immediately become the king of legal gambling online. Pachter estimates that between all the other major online poker sites like PokerStars, Party Poker and Bodog, and existing casinos, “the market will be fragmented.”
“I think that the opportunity is $1 billion to $3 billion annually, but don’t see them capturing much market share,” Pachter said. “Ultimately, I think Zynga ends up with less than 10% of category.”
Still, given how investors have piling on Zynga of late, it seems the sweetness that could come from a winning bet on the company is one many are willing to make.
Here is a report by Fitch on the aggressive expansion by states in on-line gaming
27 Feb 2013 1:52 PM
State-Level Online Gaming Momentum Continues
Fitch Ratings-New York-27 February 2013: The rollout of state-level online gaming continues to pick up traction with New Jersey, Nevada, and Massachusetts recently passing or considering online gaming legislation and Fitch Ratings believes that state-level online gaming could become operational by the end of this year or early next year. Longer term, a successful initial rollout in states like Nevada, New Jersey, and Delaware would spur an acceleration; other gaming states would move quickly to adopt similar measures if the regulatory, legal, practical, and social hurdles and concerns prove manageable.
On Tuesday, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed an online gaming bill, paving the way for the state to become the most meaningful individual state to pass online gaming legislation so far. This was largely anticipated following his conditional veto on Feb. 7 of an online gaming bill passed by the state's legislature in December 2012. Governor Christie pushed for an increase in the gaming tax rate to 15% from 10%, a 10-year sunset provision to allow for a review of online gaming in the state, and additional safeguards.
We believe the passage of online gaming in New Jersey is a positive ratings consideration for Borgata and to lesser extent for Caesars Entertainment Corp (Caesars). We rate Borgata's issuer default rating (IDR) 'B-' with a Stable Rating Outlook and Caesars' IDR 'CCC' with a Negative Rating Outlook. (Marina District Finance Company, Inc. is the issuing entity for Borgata).
Nevada and Delaware previously passed online gaming legislation, but their population bases are much smaller and therefore less meaningful on a stand-alone basis. Nevada rushed to pass a bill last week allowing it to enter into agreements to pool players with other states as passage of the New Jersey bill became apparent. The Massachusetts legislature also recently introduced two bills related to online gaming encompassing the ability to sell lottery tickets over the internet and the ability to grant internet gaming licenses, providing additional political momentum.
Nevada's legislative action reinforced our view that the state will continue to strive to remain at the forefront of the evolving gaming industry and recognized its online gaming market would be limited on a stand-alone basis. As gambling has become more socially accepted and proliferated across the United States over the past 25 years, we have seen states become increasingly competitive with respect to gambling expansion initiatives.
Gaming expansion typically follows a path of least resistance to establish initial operations, then grows from there. For example, language in the 1988 Indian Gaming Regulatory Act permitted "electronic, computer, or other technologic aids" to bingo ultimately resulted in slot-like terminals initially and full-service casinos over time, fuelling what is today a $27 billion Native American gaming industry. Rarely do we see a contraction of gaming offerings. The potential agreements to pool players between states as contemplated by the Nevada bill can likely be attributed to similar practices in the lottery industry, such as Powerball.
New Jersey was incentivized to be an early mover with online gaming, as its gaming revenues have declined from a peak of more than $5 billion in 2006 to its current level of roughly $3 billion as Pennsylvania and New York gaming markets ramped up. Implementing online gaming may help offset concerns relating to the possible gaming expansion in New York in the near term and an additional Philadelphia casino longer term. If the New York legislature passes an expansion bill this session (which may include table games at Aqueduct and Yonkers), the measure will go to a referendum this November.
The biggest question surrounding online gaming expansion is whether an acceleration of state-level gaming initiatives spurs federal-level regulation at some point over the next several years. We believe this is possible, but not necessarily probable. In the meantime, New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware are bearing the initial implementation risk, but we expect other states to follow aggressively if operations commence without material issues.
For more information this topic, please see our reports: "Fitch: Imminent Online Gaming in N.J. Positive for Borgata & Caesars," dated Feb 19, 2013 and "States and Locals Turn to Gaming: Expansionary Trend Will Produce Winners and Losers," dated Sept. 20, 2012 both available at www.fitchratings.com.
In addition, we regularly summarize various online gaming bills and provide an overview of recent trends in online gaming and of companies that may benefit from proliferation of online gaming in the U.S in Fitch's Online Gaming Monitor, last published on Feb. 19, 2013
Pennsylvania next state to introduce on-line gaming coming soon
Pennsylvania has already become the nation’s second-most lucrative gaming market, but the state could still want more. A state lawmaker recently announced plans for a bill that would legalize online poker, as well as potentially other casino games on the web.
Under Rep. Tina Davis’ plan, current Pennsylvania gaming regulators would oversee the intrastate industry. Also, an Internet gaming license would cost $16.7 million.
She added that there would be a “reasonable tax rate” for the industry and that money from Internet gaming would go to the Property Tax Relief Fund and the State Lottery Fund.
“Considering the nationwide efforts to legalize Internet gaming, it is imperative that we maintain the integrity of our gaming industry amid inevitable federal preemption and competing states, as well as possible expansion of Internet games through the privatization of our own State Lottery,” Davis wrote in the memorandum.
“A responsible Internet gaming system must be created in order to protect Pennsylvanians and the success of the established gaming industry in the Commonwealth, which has generated more than $7 billion in state tax revenue, and created more than 16,000 jobs statewide.”
The news comes as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie ponders an online gaming bill. The Garden State was just overtaken by Pennsylvania in terms of annual casino revenue and thus is looking to turn things around. However, it’s unclear if Christie will sign.
Other states in the mix for an Internet casino industry include Mississippi, Iowa and California, while Nevada and Delaware have already legalized. The year 2013 could be the time when many states take big steps, thanks to the federal government failing to act on the issue in 2012.
Very good point absolutely correct...
Not sure why you guys keep trying to predict when the Judge will rule. It can't be done we don't know what is going on in the background. Vringo's silence is telling also. The judge will rule obviously but trying to guess when is impossible. a judgement against Google is coming, if they are not at the settlement table they will be once these motions start getting dealt with.
Also appeals have to granted you can't just assume any issue that Google has raised wil be granted. They have been ruled against their JMOL motion twice already what did they say that will change the judges mind? Nothing, they will be ruled against again and the judge will confirm the jury verdict , lets ignore the price if you can it depicts fear, frustration and some capitulation form long-term longs. Regardless of what anyone says, Vringo will be successful here.
Do your own dd
Cheers
A little profit taking here another test of $3.70 - $3.75 coming later
Through partnerships with Wynn\MGM etc... the Casinos have no idea how to run an on-line business and Zynga needs a partner, that's the way it will go. Wynn or CZR have been discussed as partners in Nevada... deals coming