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it's not gambling when you spend 12hr's + a day for two decades charting and plotting and building a life... it's a job.
scoob, they may well dump. but, they have not done so yet. why? why have they not raced each other to the exit?
i don't have the answer, but a fact is a fact.
the only dumper was some other guy who filed to sell 400k shares. in two days in the middle of jan, 1mm shares were traded... accounting for the 400k.
no 144 for fv or lw before their firing and no big dumps to account for thier millions of shares since. they are not selling... yet.
HEY FV OR LW.. DUMP SOME... I DARE YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HA, HA, HA,,,!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
tibbcat
hey scoob- you may be right. those two are short on... we'll, lets just say they are lacking.... er, well, i don't want to get sued here.
lets just say i too could see them dumping shares just to spite the remaining management. i hope you get your cheap shares this summer.
one important question. all insiders are required to file form 144 to sell shares. for how long will lw and fv be considered insiders after termination??? anybody know the answer to this one??
i am monitoring for 144's closely but frankly don't care if the dumping occurs.
if they are no longer leagally 'insiders' then they can dump away. if they are, then they'll have to file 144's.
oops! the BTK is rallying and i have to go make some money now.
good luck to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
tibbcat
WAWH- i'm buying april calls on the BTK.
look at the 10 year chart..
what do you see???
tibbcat
buy any of that HPC, scoob?
tibbcat
according to basic ta, the bottom is in.
i still own almost 500k shares.
and i shake it like i just don't care.
break it down, now.
ok, i looked at the chart.
first, you gotta pull up a 5 year chart to see where we are now. draw a trend line from the .05 low in '03... connect it to the .22 low in '04... then just continue on to present. and there you find the price today in the mid .50's right on the line.
the price dove below the line for a few days on capitulation by 'someone' and is now back on the line.
so, long term, the bottom is in.
tibbcat
the chart looks horrible. i would not be buying this stock right now. since i already own it... oh well!!!
why is the stock down... same reason all stocks go down, uncertainty. uncertain management, uncertain revenue, uncertain new facility to be built... i could go on and on...
hopefully the company can start to act like a big boy company and issue timely, informative pr's to clarify the finacials and management positions as soon as possible.
until then, the chart will reflect the mess.
dumping LW and FV was THE BEST news this co has had in a long time. now, if MS could step aside to a research/pr role and hire someone... like elcampo... to replace him, then we'd have somethin' here!!
tibbcat
scoobyfl1...
now i KNOW the bottom is in. scooby has thrown in the towel. i have to laugh.
here's a tip for you scoob... don't tell your wife about your investment decisions. dont' tell ANYONE!!!!!!
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.....
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ps: scoob- if you need a winner, buy some HPC.
tibbcat
the bottom is about to fall out here. of course it already has fallen out from its high of $1.50... but the chart says a bad day (or weeks, months) are 'a coming. all support lines are now broken down and serious technical damage has been done.
unless they have significant news soon, the 20's are a comin'...
listening to the re-hashed and old ceo conference is laughable. this company is looking like a big... big... secret. what's the secret??? the emperor has no clothes??
so it goes in penny land!!!
tibbcat
well, the chart FINALLY reached 'now or never' land and rallied like a champ. as i stated before, last march i just could not imagine it dropping back down to that bottom up-trend line... or just did not want to admit that was a possibility.
the dam thing dropped to it's bottom up-trend line and the 62% fib. retracement level. amazing. but, there it is.
i'm suprised it bounced up so much on nice volume. biggest rally in 6mo+. wonder if anything is going on, or just technical. nothing is ever 'just' technical.
closed at its high for the day which is techniclly strong.
good luck to all!!!!!!!!!
tibbcat
tech analisys can be fun! if you draw that 'line' i asked you to a few days ago connecting the low points (beginning with the .05 low a few years ago) you will find that line now lies at about .55.
we closed at .54 yesterday... right on the line.
if you measure the move from .05 to the closing high of $1.49 last march then subtract .62% of the move you get the much harolded lower fibbonicci retracement of... .55.
freaky-deaky stuff.
IF the price is going to make a stand it is going to make it here and now.
good luck to all!!!!!!!!!!!!
tibbcat
finally reached a properly oversold condition friday to add more. .56 is right on the bottom of the lowest uptrend line. just connect the lows going back to 2000 and you'll see it.
back in march i drew that line and just said to myself... surely it wont go back down the the bottom trend line... surely... but it did. amazing how the tax loss selling and the last trading day of the year coincided with the bottom of the channel trend line.
always worth the risk to buy at the bottom of a channel on large volume. added 50k shares friday. thanks to all who sold for the tax loss or whatever reason.
gotta buy pennies when nobody wants them and that was the case yesterday.
i remain flat to the market for now except for my two flyers.. cygx and aido. i'm in a position now to be very selective and can see making very few trades this year or for the next several years. one thing i am sensing is that the natural gas market is due for a crash down. but i dont touch that volitile thing with a 10 foot pole.
good luck to all!!!!!!!!!
tibbcat
"the best drugs currently available."????????
this is a direct quote from dr. mennon.
available to whom? where can i buy some nnvc flu-cide?? they are NOT available because they have not even been submitted for IND.
laughable. i'm sure the stock will rally.
tibbcat
i see bird flu is back in the news. and biotech stocks are set to rally this week according to the chart. it has been and will continue to be a GREAT TIME to be invested in biotech.
i have mixed emotions about cygx. after stepping back, reading the pr's over the past two years again and looking at the chart it would appear to me that they and others believe they have a technology platform that will change the face of dna medicine and vaccine production.
but the factory is more than a year away from completion. so cygx stock may be dead money for another 9mo-year. that's fine, as long as the construction contintues on shceduel i remain very bullish long term and the stock appears to be worth holding.
a new, better coo and cfo would be welcome news. now they can go from the 'hobby' level company to a 'big boy' company. thank God!!!!!
yield curve continues to invert and i expect interest rate cuts early next year, leading to stockmarket and gold rally into at least mid 2007.
buy the BTK and make some money next couple of weeks.
tibbcat
yep.
and the big picture is turning quite bullish too.
that's the idea.
pretty sure now one could buy shares here and make a small fortune in the not so distant future.
market really wants to SEE thoses potential sales before biting.
tibbcat
good. lw was not up to the task. ms should have his replacement waiting in the wings and if he is a solid candidate with good experience, the stock will rally upon the announcement.
this is a very, VERY good sign for shareholders. management is waking up to reality... (or at least having a more lucid dream).
tibbcat
well, somebody is buying for some reason.
fly-on, flyer!!!
hitting the ask hard now.
suky, great find!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the language used suggest that it will be aido chips used.
the recent rise in the stock price, rsi and macd suggest good news is coming.
guess we'll just have to wait and see.
tibbcat
bush will go down as one of the worst republican presidents ever. he pandered to seniors with the prescription drug give away, the largest entitlment program ever failed to to anything to reduce the size and scope of government. he abandon the republican revolution and became a moderate democrat.
this is why republicans abandon him last tuesday.
scootergirl... you must be fresh out of college, paid for by your parents. just wait until you have a family, kids, mortgage, taxes... real life on your own. you'll change your tune. watching 'breakfast at tiffanys' this morning...? or perhapse a good rock hudsun doris day romp? aaaaah real life.
out of stocks...
and out of the BTK which has made me another small fortune the past month.
out of HPC, another great winner over the past two months.
all my indicators are turning negative short term.
gold and the euro looking bullish now. i wont be chasing them. gonna sit back and watch for a while.
i think given a month the pullback will be over and perhaps stocks can rally into the new year. but any talk of raising capitol gains taxes by the new power will negate this theory.
i kept my two 'flyers' cygx and aido.
tibbcat
i have lived on minimum wage. ramen noodles and broccoli. i did not like it.
you wont be worring about church and state issues and evil oil companies when the unemployment rate hits 15%.
i am not a dem or rep. i am trying to be 'ben franklin-like' but it is not easy.
'incentives'
bigworld, great post! the dem's are good at creating incentives that reward lazyness like welfare and higher minimum wage rather than rewarding hard work, innovation, education and success. heck, why work harder to get a raise when i'm paid enough by minimum wage and food stamps to sit in my apartment and play nientendo.
cant wait for howard dean to start the push to end 'corporate welfare' and the new luxury tax. you go howard, and watch the unemployment rate skyrocket. and just as the boomers are retiring 'bigworld' you got it just right.
the ONLY way to support the entitlments are full employment or much higher taxes. we know which route the dems will take. problem is higher taxes bites the hand that feeds you. dems dont get this.
however, liberals are good for one segment of the market... BIOTECH!!!
i am in the process of closing out my longs in the market. i have been blessed with a very big tax problem for 2006. as for cygx, i don't know and i dont care. just going to hold it for fun to see what sillyness takes place.
aaaaaaaaah.
tibbcat
no cure for stupid.
the understatement of the year. you sold off 100k shares at the bottom. and in the face of obvious buying pressure. hell, it could not be more obvious. if ever there was a time for you and others to have just a little basic chart reading ability it is/was now.
the stock is being accumulated for a buyout of some type. all of the company or maybe part of it. but mark my words. buyout.
tibbcat
BigB-
check out Kyphon at kyphon.com
tibbcat
so, again, why would somebody place an order like that. its been there for a month now.
i know why, do you??
try to think logically, here.
tibbcat
that's how one KNOWS there is a standing order, from an e-trade customer to buy any and all at .80 or below.
now why would somebody do that??
tibbcat
so, there really is NC4S...
someone is offering to buy shares at .81
this is the best or highest offer and is shown.
someone is offering to sell them at .88
this is currently the lowest price anyone is willing to sell at.
no trades until two parties agree on a price at which to trade shares for $$$. then, a 'trade' occurs.
you people really have no idea how this stuff works, do you?!
tibbcat
someone IS positioning.
clear as day. obviously positioning. at .80c.
tibbcat
hey wawh !!!!!!!!!!!!
have you figured out what's happening here? there is only one scenario that makes sense. there really is only one thing that makes a chart look like cygx does over the past 3 weeks.
surely you have figured this out as well.
for the rest of you... have you ever seen a stock chart look like cygx does now??? rarely if ever. cause there is something a bit 'unusual' going on.
the chart will tell you everything you need to know. if you care to listen.
just hold and you'll be happy.
tibbcat
the big run is coming, i think.
money is FLOODING in to the BTK (biotech index). cygx has flushed out most of the speculative money that pushed it to $1.50 in march. we've got a great looking frying pan base with some bullish shadows. money is coming in to the sector and malcom wants his bonus.
i expect to see zero news until late november, early december. i expect to see another week quarterly report.
what's got me excited is the melanoma ssDNA findings/bird flu in vivo results from UTMB and potential synDNA sales in the 4th quarter or 1st quarter that are significant.
tibbcat
ARNOLD...
do you know what a 'leveraged position' is??
i suppose someone who thinks that ..."the bid means 'sell'" would of course not know what leverage is.
watching you and thatmr discuss the mechanics of the market with no knowledge of how it actually works is sad.
please, buy a book about stock and options and futures trading and read it.
complete and utter clarity...
is what i experienced yesterday afternoon. as the dow pushed up +50pts i realized that all the short sellers were entering maximum pain area and we're going to have to start buying to cover. i just knew it was happening and bot one s&p contract.. then another... another.
dow now +70 and looking strong... buy another, another... i now have 10 contracts.
there is just something about the number 100. when a stock or index breaks above 100, it almost always pushes higher. it did.
i sold my 10 s&p contracts 1/2 hr before the close. very large profits. tax implications. makes my $3000 loss on my s&p shorts last month look like a blip on the radar.
HIH and HPC both higher on the day and looking good.
the BTK is exploding upward. this is great news for biotech and cygx as money is flowing into the secor JUST AS IT DID LAST FALL-WINTER. am i the only one who sees this so clearly?
excess liquidity is pouring into the us market.
tibbcat
in tune with the market.
you have to be listening for a long long time and wait for those rare moments when you feel good, look good, and become 'in tune' with the market.
this is the 3rd time since the 2001 crash that i've achieved this state. it never lasts long, a few weeks or so. but i've learned to recognize the feeling now.
everything, absolutely everything i thought would happen with the global markets has come to pass. oil is tanking, gold is tanking, the crb is tanking, the stock market is rallying and the past 5 days the BTK (biotech index) has rallied enough so i have taken 80% of my position in the BTK off the table. its like the perfect storm in my trading accounts.
my shorts on the oil index are now cash in the bank. i left gold alone. shorted unleaded gas 3 days ago... now cash.
i'm about to sell a contract or two in NG on this little technical rally. to say there is a glut of gass and oil now is an understatement. $70 crude and no hurricanes have created serious demand destruction for enenrgy in the us.
i bot NIN and HPC this morning and both are now rallying.
once the hot touch stops, i'll close out all positoins and wait another year or two until the 'feeling' comes again. until then, i ride the hot hand.
as for cygx... patience is a virtue!
really like the look of this rally.
i'm talking the overall stock market here. it is not blowing up in all sectors, the sox and smaller cap stocks still have some catching up to do. its the bigger cap stocks that have pushed the dow to a record high. i dont here or read much excitement about the new high... makes me think we will continue to trudge higher over the coming months.
i've had a great run. after losing 6k on my s&p shorts last month, my long side plays in the biotech index and selected tech issues have large paper profits and i have taken some off the table.
i got lucky and made 40k in HEPI (sold out last week at $3.80).
small short positions in the oil index made large profits yesterday and i took them.
all in all, $140k in profit in the bank in a month.
i still hold a substantial positoin in ALA that is showing me a small profit. there are MANY stocks that are putting in nice technical set ups and i plan to pick and choose over the coming days, weeks...
for those who follow it, i think AIDO will have a much higher value 6mo's from now than it does now.
as for cygx, it is putting in a nice frying pan base heading into is favourable seasonality and the biotech index is breaking out to the upside so money is flowing into the sector.
good luck to all!!!!!!!!!!
tibbcat
every contract brings closer the buy-out offer. buying here should make you some money down the road. looks like the door is open for more contracts and growing revenues the rest of '06-07.
it is kind of funny how they did not make perfectly clear that this is going to be a recurring sale of 20k units per month... is it??? these people need an english major working for them.
have to hand it to them... china can be a tough nut to crack. but once cracked, can be a bonanza.
tibbcat
the answer to that question is out your front door.
tibbcat