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Regina's writing letters again...
Dear Sirs,
I am curious as to what the FTC’s mission statement is. Since I haven’t read it yet, I am guessing that the mission statement must read something like this:
“The FTC’s mission is to protect large corporations like Micron and Infineon against any parties seeking to exert lawfully obtained patent rights (like Rambus). The FTC is an agency dedicated to protecting those corporations that provide large cash contributions to political appointees who will look after said corporations interests at all cost, even in the face of anti-trust violations committed by the very corporations that provide the cash to us. The FTC will also provide protection to any corporation willing to employee former FTC prosecutors once they leave this agency. WE at the FTC will bully any small company that threatens your existence as long as you provide us with cash and employment incentives. WE have the means and resources to bury any upstart so that most companies with potentially disruptive patents that threaten your existence will likely fold without ever putting up a fight.”
Could you please provide me with a copy of the actual FTC mission statement so that I can see how close I am to the actual content?
Thank You.
Regina ******
This space recognizes these Valuable Contributors to the Board:
calbiker
cordob
elixe
NukeJohn
pauls59
silrw
Hi Threejack - I suppose it would look egotistical, but your name belongs on the list as well.
I read all three Rambus boards regularly (this and TMF and Yahoo) and my opinion is that this board has the highest quality per post. As Cor mentioned, the rec feature would be great here, but it is not a necessity like it is on Yahoo and TMF to a lesser extent. The only problem with the rec system is that viewers like me run the risk of missing solid posts. Because of the myriad posts generated on the other two sites, I am forced to just read the ones with say 6 recs or more. Then what happens is that readers form favorites and rec those people's posts whether they are substantive or not. With no rec system here, I am forced to read every post and it is always worth my while.
It's interesting how the boards each seem to have their own focus. There is more of a technical focus here, more of say a legal focus on TMF and very little focus on Yahoo although Yahoo does always seem to get the news first.
The "pumping" on Yahoo and TMF does seem to be reaching epic proportions which I suppose happens as a stock starts to move up. The last time people were this giddy was after the FTC ID. As annoyed as certain people get, having Nic around on TMF is invaluable if only to keep people grounded.
One last thing - Paul - GREAT posts on here and TMF - thanks for doing all that leg work and nicely summarizing your thoughts.
I would like to second Threejack's appreciation for Calbiker and Elixe and extend it to him as well. Thanks for being a dutiful host, Threejack.
And Calbiker - anyone that consistently refers to themselves in the third person is alright by Skeptic. ;>
Elixe - OT
Are you a Simpsons fan? I'll I can picture when I read your posts is that scientist guy on there and that one episode where Lisa grows this civilization in a petri dish. The scientist guy has this high tech device he is going to use to get Lisa back to normal size called the DeBigUlizer.
Long_and_Leaping posted this link on Yahoo concerning Sammie and XDR - I have no idea what it means, but it looks pretty...
http://rambus.com/news/events/Main4_Samsung_new.pdf
How long must we wait for IBM to license Rambus IP? Can you tell us, Ms. Holt?
Geoff always refuses to answer questions about the IBM relationship - perhaps they were asked to remain silent until the details of CELL and PS3 were revealed to the masses. Rambus might actually get some good press in Feb - it won't offset the Payne, but it will help.
Elixe - can you confirm or deny this post made on Yahoo?
TIA
Re: Rambus inside but no XDR
by: kumasutraman
Long-Term Sentiment: Hold 11/29/04 12:40 am
Msg: 705364 of 705380
""The PS3 memory is rumored to be able to transfer around 100 Gbytes/second, which would mean it could process new data at roughly 25 Gflops (at 32 bits) — far from the 1-Tflops number"
The only memory that can deliver 100GB/s
over a 128 bit bus is xdr there is no ddr
version that can come close!! this means
that it is xdr. and yes the parallel bus
matches the specs for redwood. You are wrong.
Match the spec of the hardware and rambus's i.p is the only match.
Cor - I thought you might find this chart interesting...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RMBS&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=amd
Two, when he said Rambus expects resistance in renewing SDRAM and DDR-SDRAM licenses with nine existing licensees up for renewal in 2005.
More and more seems to be hinging on proving infringement. Those up for resigning will demand at least as good a deal as Sammie and Elpida (fixed royalties) and some may balk altogether.
What the hell is Rambus going to do when they can't get the three stooges to pay, Samsung won't sign up for DDR2, and those up for resigning don't want to pay until the holdouts do too? It's a potential nightmare. And then they face a potentially large liability for spoliation and a definite loss in VA2. And of course there is the possibility that PS3 will not use XDR. Where will the revenue come from? PCI revenue is just starting to ramp up and I fear we face significantly more litigation there as well.
I know I'm focusing on the negative, but I can't help it.
And another thing I don't understand is, what does a SJ get us in the near term (i.e. less than 2 years from now) - it will be appealed if not shot down by affirmative defenses or prior art.
All in all - the presentation wasn't very inspiring - no new licensees and a lot of payneful revelations.
Oh well, there's always 2006.
This damn stock moves too quickly. It jumped a buck before I could cover... I still don't even know what the news in.
The question is who does it help?
It helps the bums who are still paying McComas - Micron would be my guess. Those clowns (Micron) are so far behind Samsung on the technology front that they are using McComas to sabotage DDR2 and give them time to ramp up. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see that Bozo (Appleton) accepting hundreds of million of dollars from Intel to mass produce DDR2 and then turn around and pay McComas to ensure it never makes it out of the gate.
IFX warning on Q4
UPDATE 3-Infineon outlook disappoints; Q4 hit by charges
Tue Nov 9, 2004 04:46 AM ET
(Adds detail, background, analyst comment, shares)
By Georgina Prodhan
MUNICH, Nov 9 (Reuters) - German chipmaker Infineon disappointed investors with a cautious outlook for the current quarter on Tuesday, sending its shares down as much as 4 percent after its September quarter earnings were hit by charges.
The world's seventh-biggest chipmaker said it saw signs of a slowdown in several of its markets in the traditionally strong December quarter, which features end-of-year sales for the Thanksgiving, Christmas and Chinese New Year holidays.
Although Infineon's remarks echoed recent comments from other chipmakers, as demand slows and the supply balance shifts in favour of chip buyers, investors were disappointed that the firm saw weakness even in segments expected to buck that trend.
"The outlook was really disappointing to us, especially for Automotive and SMS which tend to have a good calendar Q4," said JP Morgan analyst Uche Orji, referring to Infineon's chips for car electronics systems, mobile phones and smart cards.
Infineon said in a statement it expected a "significant reduction in revenues" for SMS in the current quarter due to a slowing market and higher inventories among Asian mobile phone customers, and said it was "cautious" about sales development throughout fiscal 2005.
By 0938 GMT Infineon's shares were trading 3.1 percent lower at 8.38 euros, against a flat European technology index .
For Infineon's fiscal fourth quarter, underlying earnings came in a touch ahead of the average forecast of 22 analysts in a Reuters poll, but were hit by new provisions for anti-trust cases and an impairment charge for a 2001 acquisition.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were 113 million euros ($146 million), including charges of 132 million euros, compared with the average estimate of 225 million.
Sales rose 4 percent sequentially to 1.993 billion euros, broadly in line with the average estimate of 1.982 billion, while net profit of 44 million missed forecasts, again due to the charges.
Infineon said revenue rose in the quarter in all its units except its core memory chips division -- from which it makes 40 percent of its revenues -- mainly driven by still strong demand for mobile-phone and automotive chips.
The Wireline fixed-line telecoms unit was the only one not to increase EBIT, extending its operating loss sequentially to 110 million euros from 35 million, mainly due to 80 million euros of impairment charges from the 2001 acquisition of Catamaran Communications.
GROWTH SLOWING
Infineon said it expected its memory business to be "in line with normal seasonal demand" in the December quarter, but gave no outlook for 2005, when the highly cyclical chip industry is expected to dip after its best performance since 2000.
Detailed development of the memory chip business is hard to predict as prices for the commodity-like chips are beyond the control of any single producer.
But global industry group World Semiconductor Trade Statistics said this week the semiconductor market as a whole was likely to grow just 1.2 percent in 2005, after the close to 30-percent growth predicted by research groups for 2004.
And the world's two largest contract manufacturers of microchips, TSMC (2230.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) and UMC (2303.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) posted sequentially weaker October sales earlier on Tuesday as customers sold off excess inventory amid sluggish demand for consumer electronics.
ANTI-TRUST CASES
Infineon said in September it had agreed to plead guilty to U.S. Justice Department charges of conspiring with unnamed manufacturers to fix prices of DRAM memory chips and to pay a $160 million fine, the third-largest in U.S. anti-trust history.
The company said at the time it did not see the need for further anti-trust provisions in the immediate future, after raising its accruals for such cases to 212 million euros in the June quarter.
It still faces dozens of class-action suits and a European Commission request for information on practices in the European DRAM market.
Infineon, the world's seventh-biggest chipmaker, trades at 39 times forecast 2004 earnings according to Reuters estimates, making it more than twice as expensive as memory chipmaker Micron (MU.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and compared with 6.7 times earnings for market leader Samsung (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) .
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
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Are there members on here who are invested in ONCY? I was lucky enough to attend a meeting with the CEO. They are doing some marketing for a secondary. I thought the science and strategy were both very interesting and the CEO was very professional and knowledgeable. I'm considering an investment and I'd be interested to hear other opinions.
TIA
but what is SJ??? Summary Judgement?
Yep - exactly.
RKRW - OT-CGTK
You're absolutely right about the results being a toss-up. I was starting to get a little too confident. I was actually considering not hedging on the downside so thanks for the wake up call. Mgmt has done everything right to ensure that IF the drug does work, the trials will show that so at least they are minimizing trial risk.
I had thought you were long and optimistic on this one. Regardless of whether it works or not there is money to be made playing the event with an appropriate straddle. This is really a do or die for them - 5 or 30 in my opinion - along the same lines as AGIX.
Anyway, you didn't actually here anything at R&R that triggered your spidey sense, did you?
Thanks
"Other comments, cgtk, I think it's way too risky to be long heading into the data. May even be a good short, but probably too unpredictable for me."
RKRW - very surprised by your comments here. Mgmt on the cc the other day seemed near giddy when talking about the upcoming data event (some time before the end of December). The trials are very well put together, the DSMB review went smoothly, BMY was willing to put some big bucks into this, and the better sell side firms out there (Lehman and Needham) love the story.
I'd really like to know what the basis of your statement is.
TIA
I was just thinking that Haley's Comet comes around more frequently than a Sox World Series victory. Glad I'm alive to see it.
OT - Red Sox
Congratulation Sox - I'm a huge Sox fan and I've been waiting for this day for a long time. It goes to show you anything can happen. When the Sox were down 0-3 in the ALCS against their nemesis, the Yankees, I doubt anyone would have predicted they would clinch the pennant and then defeat the team with the best record in baseball in 4 games in the Series. Perhaps there is still hope for Rambus.
I'm considering a new handle - OptimistPrime.
PGS - I've read the Pru report too - which of his concerns do you think is valid - the slow enrollment?
TIA
Beware, though, the danger is always the unexpected event.
I'm still net long so I'm still hoping for some unexpected good news - my profit will be offset by my short position. The trading on this stock has me shaking my head. The under-reaction is triggering my spidey-sense. The major indices are down so far today but Rambus is up.
Hmmm...
I appreciate your optimisim Threejack. I'm the guy that always sees the glass as half empty. I still have more Leaps than I am short, but I think there is more potential downside than you think. I think the easiest way to get a sense of where the bottom might be is to look at the valuations of comparable companies. My favorite metric is Enterprise Value / EBITDA. Enterprise value takes into account the value of the company's debt and their cash. EBITDA is really just operating earnings and removes funny stuff like a 2.7 million gain from foreign tax credits.
Rambus trades at an EV/EBITDA of 45. This compares to IDCC and ARMHY which are both ~28. These two companies are very appropriate yardsticks given their similar IP only business models. For Rambus to come in line with these other two, it equals a stock price of ~10.3. There is still a lot "litigation hope" baked into the price which I don't see coming to fruition for at least another year and a half when the AT suit is in full gear and the CAFC has had a chance to correct the Payneful district court's mistakes.
Thanks to the quick reporting on TMF, I was able to sell my Nov. 17.5 calls with a small gain and I went short a little stock at 16.8 I still have my '07 leaps, but I'm wondering if I should have gotten rid of those as well.
Nic had said all along that it was a long shot, but it most likely means more delay and I have a hard time believing Whyte will not wait for VA2 to proceed first.
Couple today's news with ARM and Synopsis entering the PCI fray, and it's a nasty one two punch for the Bus.
We need a SJ of infringement and bifurcation and we need the FTC to drop the case (probably a longer shot than the petition for Writ).
I'll be dead and buried before this litigation is finally resolved.
OT - Go Sox - great game last night. This is the year we reverse the curse. It would be interesting if Houston wins tonight and then we would have a kind of symbolic Texas vs. Mass. struggle right before the election.
For the first time in a while, I'm feeling a bit of hope that Rambus will actually come through its travails in decent shape. RASER and these drop-in memory solutions, as announced with Toshiba today, make me optimistic that even given the worst case scenarios in Rambus' litigation, Rambus will still have decent revenue and earnings potential.
That doesn't mean I won't be loading up on puts before VA2, but I think the future looks bright or at least less foreboding.
I'm not liking the way Rambus is trading today. At least I warned you guys that I was buying calls.
I had some Oct 10 puts that just expired worthless. I don't think a failure to obtain writ on the second petition will push this thing below 10. Even failure to get bifurcation or a SJ of infringement might only push it down to 13 or 14. IMO - no matter what the CAFC does, Rambus will lose VA2. Once I'm positive of when that trial will take place (it's been moved three times already), I'll buy some puts to cover me from the wrath of the FTC and Payne.
But what do I know. This drama had had more deceipt and treachery than a soap opera.
I couldn't resists buying some 17.5 Nov calls. I only made a small bet, but we should have a decision from the CAFC, a final ruling on bifurcation, and SJs or at least positive claims constructions from Whyte. We will also get some detail on Infineon's plea and might see a Hynix, Micron, or Samsung deal with the DOJ that assists Rambus.
Interesting points Biopharm investor - I have some knowledge in this arena. What's interesting is that there seems to be some unspoken animosity between the buy side and the sell side. One senior sell-side research analyst I spoke with pointed out how the sell side analysts work 12 hours or more a day compared the the 9-5 hours of the buy side analysts. My impression is that the sell side keeps in touch with management and a strong network more consistently than the buy side. In fact, sell side analysts actually make pitches to their buy side counterparts on stocks both cover.
As you pointed out, a lot of buy side analysts begin their work by reading the sell-side reports and talking to said analyts.
I know an analyst in the consumer services group who recently switched from the sell side to the buy side. This guys knows the management of the companies he covered intimately and is constantly yakking with people in the know about these same companies. He's well connected. The problem he is having switching over to the buy side (IMO) is that his "picks" are now directly affecting the performance of his portfolio and his own compensation whereas before, he could get a few wrong and it wasn't as big a deal. You're not as insulated when you're on the buy side so you can't make as many mistakes.
The other problem I have with the sell side is the potential conflicts of interest. Part of the responsibilities of sell side analysts is drum up business - investment banking fees and brokerage commission. Both of these responsibilities can hamper their objectivity. For example - let's say Genta has a weak balance sheet and will need to do a secondary offering or a convertible offering. Dr. Monane might see an opportunity to grab some underwriting fees for his firm so he finds ways to rationalize/justify a buy rating on the firm.
Anyway...
Another opinion issued by Rader this week. Nothing from Bryson or Prost - Prost hasn't issued anything in the last two weeks.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2004
11:00 A.M.
PRECEDENTIAL OPINION
04-1291 ON-LINE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. v. BODENSEEWERK PERKIN-ELMER
GMBH, ET AL.
On appeal from the United States District Court for the District of
Connecticut.
Judgment affirmed in part, vacated in part, and remanded.
Opinion by Bryson, Circuit Judge.
NONPRECEDENTIALS OPINIONS
03-3041 DAVID P. HOLLAND v. OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT
USMSPB Rader, J. Affirmed
04-3089 LAURA V. KING v. DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
USMSPB Per Curiam Affirmed
04-3203 DAVID P. HOLLAND v. FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE
CORPORATION
USMSPB Rader, J. Affirmed
Some of the more interesting things from the CC:
Arguments on bifurcation are being heard today! IMO - this will determine if the Hynix trial goes first or not. If Whyte allows bifurcation, there is no reason they should have to wait on Payne to cover the infringement portion. Unfortunately I think Whyte is too cautious to set the precedent.
In a week we should know if there will be any change of venue in the civil antitrust case.
Eulau said Rambus expect Whyte to isse the claims construction soon (2 weeks - maybe). It would be a bonus to have a SJ of infringement.
I expect to hear from the CAFC next week or the week after.
Then there's the FTC - Dec. 7th - the date in which the FTC commission will pretend to be impartial, ignore everything Ramubs and the chief ALJ has to say and continue to pursue Micron's agenda.
Then there will be oral arguments on sanctions against Rambus for document spoliation on 1/20. I can't wait to see what Payne thinks is an appropriate penalty here. We might not see an infringement trial at all as Payne could see fit to invalidate all Rambus patents at issue. I'm sure they would proceed with a trial on fraud and litigation misconduct and gaming the system with their submarine patents.
Yup - I agree with your assessment. We need the CAFC to clean up this mess "big time" (a little tribute to Cheney).
VA2 - won't start until Feb 10th!!!!
10 cents - "$2.7 million of the net income for the third quarter was attributable to the previously mentioned foreign tax credit utilization."
Without the 2.7 mill - net income was less than last quarter!
6.5 million of cash used for stock repurchase to fuel those options grants.
"Don’t know how you came up with 20% but you evidently used the right formula "
It's the highly analytical method referred to as - pulling it out of one's nether regions.
ACL is down about 21% in pre-market. It would seem my prediction for the potential event impact of Retaane was fairly prescient. (I just thought I'd toot my own horn)
Alcon’s Retaane fails head-to-head AMD study vs Visudyne:
This can only be good news for EYET.
"As I said, as far as I know, the only statin to show regression in other trials has been 80mg lipitor."
I believe 80mg lipitor was the control.
RKRW - do you still have some AGIX? I'm trying to decide whether to buy a few Jan 05 calls and play the final CART-II results.
"Do you have a reason for the conjecture ?"
No reason for this conjecture - in fact the stock price and volume are not indicative of any news this favorable being imminent. I don't think there is any way there wouldn't be a leak - hell - Steve Appleton would probably be buying Rambus stock before the settlement was announced.
"Still remember Judge Payne telling Messers Desmarais and Stone back early in the year that VA2 would not go the way either party expected. Wonder what he had in mind back then?"
I don't think Payne's a man of his word - very little, if any, integrity in that man. He's a stubborn old fool that issues rulings that support his pre-determined view of who's right and who's wrong. Sauce for IFX has not been sauce for RMBS. I think Payne does have a point in what you pointed out - not even Desmaris could have expected how well things are going in their favor.
I'm not giving up on the CAFC yet - I think Payne exceeded the mandate of the remand. I still think Rambus loses in VA2, but it would be good for a nice little pop if Rambus gets a little justice.
This could mean absolutely nothing, but I looked at the CAFC daily disposition link again and I noticed there was an opinion handed down by Bryson on 10/7. Couple that with Rader's decision on 10/5 and it looks like we might have a while to wait yet. However, I did not find any opinions issued by Prost recently. Perhaps she is reviewing Rambus' second Writ.
Here's hoping that a settlement with Micron is announced at Rambus' conference call on Thursday.