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When the market opens, I'll be watching GLD to see if it hits 83.30 If it does, I'll enter into GLL and hold until GLD fills the gap at 74.81
That's the game plan. Nothing really looks good. Everything looks like it's in 'no-man-land', at least to suite my trading style.
White House now saying, don't expect a deal Sunday or Monday considering the automakers.... the plot thickens......
cheif mentioned a few days ago that this coming week could get real ugly. But no one knows for sure.
I'm amazed at the bad news that the markets are shrugging off.
I guess the reason I feel the markets are due for a pullback is because of the open gap on the NASDAQ daily chart @ 1384.35
I really need to un-load my QID position so I can take a breather and re-group.
If we can fill that gap @ 1384.35, that would give me a nice , little profit, but I never intended to hold it this long. I like to make a trade where I only hold 1-7 trading days, or maybe 10 days.
If I'm patient, I can usually get in and out in 3-4 days with a nice profit.
Controling your emotions is the hardest, but most inmportant part of trading. I'm getting better at it, but feel I still have room for improvement. :~)
I can see gold going to 929.40 But first, I believe it's going to 748.10
Gold's still in a downtrend, and there's quite a few gaps recently, and the last open gap I see is at 748.10, on the daily chart.
I'll be watching GLL at the open... would LOVE to see a big gap-up!
Kind of bothers me, though, that it only trades 9200 shrs/day.... so far. Hopefully this etf will get discovered.
Spread the word.... lol!
Breaking through 39, and $25 is a slam dunk. And, I'm certain we'll see 15. Cheif is calling for 10, but a rally first to around 75 as I recall.
A 50% retracement from the top and here around 40, would put crude at about 95/bl.
My 'gut' is telling me we going lower, and then rally, putting the re-tracement at a lower number.
I really don't see crude going back to 95, and I think 75 is a stretch. But then, a few years ago,I never thought we'd see 147, either.
Maybe a retracement to $60... 65....?
Eyeing GLL for a Monday entry. Stay green today and open Monday green and I'll be looking to enter. A lot of back filling to do on the price of gold.
Watching the GLD chart for an entry point on GLL, since GLL is a recent issue and thinly traded.
I was thinking the same thing. If the rsi stays pegged for another thre days, it'll provide some gain! Enven just staying pegged today will be nice.
Gotta run.....
Cort; Wahz; others: Are you aware of these:
http://www.proshares.com/funds/ycl.html
http://www.proshares.com/funds/ule.html
http://www.proshares.com/funds/euo.html
http://www.proshares.com/funds/ycs.html
For the average guy, these would be much better than trading ForEx.
Lots of choices these days, and more to come....
Scary.....
UGL and GLL are only a few days old. People will discover it soon. The 3X etf's started out slow, now the trade in the millions/day.
When is someone going to release a 40X etf? So we can all act like the 'big boys'? lol!
GAp at 1380 on the NASDAQ 60 min chart. When that fills, I'll be fine on my QID. Just hope it's sooner, rather than later. I see a lot of good set-ups forming. I need the cash! lol!
FWIW, I have gold going back to 746.80. 74.68 for GLD.
Are you still holding UGL and EEV?
I still have QID from 81.18! Screwed that up. Rode it down to 71. Back up to 85. Didn't sell. Down to 64 and change yesterday.
I need to shave about another 100 points off the NASDAQ just to save face. lol!
The trades I could have made if only I'd played by my own rules.... :~)
Hey, I sold too soon, too! lol! But you had a much better entry than me.
Anyhow, now there's a gap @ 40.18 that will fill.
Tomorrow will be interesting. Too bad I can't watch but from 12:15 to about 12:45. And, if I'm lucky, the last 10 minutes.
Out at 48.15 Could go up to 50.50. But why let greed get in between you and a good trade?
For a short trade, 46.50 - 46.90 area looks like it's doable. Hopefully on Thursday. :~)
I like NNVC @ 0.69 or under. I currently hold no position.
I'm holding. I'll look to sell between tomorrow and Friday's close. Most likely, tomorrow since I can't watch much on Friday.
I believe this market to be a "house of cards". So, I'm being real stubborn here.
I'll admit, it's hard to watch this rally from the short side. But if you're not long here, I wouldn't jump in now. I'd wait for a better opp.
If the NASDAQ can break down through 1538.25, it will has support @ 1510 and then 1500. Through 1500 and it should go down and fill that gap @ 1471.
These are the current levels I'm watching.
And if I go over a cliff...? lol!
Cort, trust your 'gut'. It'll keep you out of trouble more times than not.
(Watch 12.74 on the XLF. If it breaks, 11.59 could happen fast. That would be a good place to cover FAZ, imo.)
I'm holding. Nothing wrong with selling, though.
You, my friend, got a great entry! I'm jealous. lol!
If you plan on holding it for 3 months or more, you could buy it here (14-ish). But, I'd wait for the gap at 11.32 to fill, then buy. This is how I trade. Sometimes I miss out. But, I think it gives me an edge for when I do make a trade.
Daily chart look, to me, like it will pullback starting any day now. The weekly still has room on the up-side.
The monthly, well it's extremely oversold, especially if it closes the month near these levels.
I'd wait for 11.32, if I were going to buy it.
jmho,
df
Thoughts on TBT:I don't think we'll see the BIG move on TBT for awhile (I mean the crash type move like we've seen in crude prices).
Foreign money is still pouring into US treasuries. The world economy looks bleak, so they park their cash in to US treasuries because they feel as if the US won't go into default.
TBT will still have some nice moves, but I think the bond crash is awhile off. Remember, everyone knew the crude bubble was happening and eveyone knew it would crash. No one just knew WHEN it would crash.
My feeling is, it'll be awhile. But, I'll be watching it and commenting on it as time goes by.
(I've yet to trade TBT)
Forgot: I should have mentioned I took my readings from the USO charts. But, when I play the long side of crude, I'll be using the 2x long etf DXO.
My take on Crude: I don't believe crude will run until sometime in Jan. In my opinion, crude is still not oversold enough to make a big run. It still has a lot of room to the downside on the daily and quite a bit of downside room on the weekly.
The monthly is in what I consider extreme oversold territory for 4 straight months now. Assuming, crude closes near this level or lower.
Chartwise, that would be the best scenario: Close here (44-ish) or lower. Then start the corrective move up.
When I feel crude is ready to make it's move, I'll be buying the DXO etf (a low priced one. I love these!).
fwiw,
df
Sure, good luck!
Noway! Still holding. Hopefully it'll run for a few days.
Let's see if the NASDAQ goes to 1471.19
That's where there is an open gap on the 10 day 5 min. chart.
There are others along the way. 1471.19 is the last one I see.
This could be just a one , or possibly 2, day sell-off. WWW is tomorrow. ;~)
44.21, but I'll be eyeing the rsi, too.
More @ 36.21
In FAZ @ 38.82....
Anyone noticed (or cares, lol!) that today, Bill Fleckenstein closed his short hedge fund?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/fleckenstein-shutting-down-short-hedge.html
Well, since the markets started to sell off near the close, I figured we'd get more up-side tomorrow, at least the first hour or so. So, instead of going short via one of the etf's, I thought I'd wait til tomorrow and see the open.
Now, FedEx reports bad numbers and the markets are down in the afterhours.
I hope we open green tomorrow. I'm looking at FAZ on the short side anmd watching NNVC on the longside for a quick trade.
Damn it! Now I see FAZ is up 3.17% afterhours.
39.32 is what I get for a "perfect world" low for TBT. Maybe that's where the daily will 're-set'.
will it be a longterm signal, like months? Thanks, please keep of posted and give us a few details as to what the signal means.
You guys get the feeling we are in for more 3 p.m. fireworks...? lol!
Let's have a blow-off top.... :~)
If the XLF can take out 14.35 (50sma), then a great trade, imo, would be to buy the FAZ (-300%) or the SKF (-200%).
Watching....
If it can burst through 20.50, then it'll put in a big move.
15 to 20.50 is a good size move in and of it's self. 16.50 is the first up-side target. Let's see if it gets hit.